00:00It has been a very hot stretch across the south and southeast and the nature of the heat has just
00:05been really tough here with extremely high AccuWeather real field temperatures. We're
00:11going to be digging into the gradual shift westward as I bring up a couple of graphics here. I wanted
00:17to show you just how hot it's going to be over the next few days here in the southeast and
00:22man
00:23the humidity is a big contributor to this as well as the actual heat. So let's take a look at
00:28some
00:29of our AccuWeather real field temperature forecast for the southeast and the south for Wednesday
00:33and man it's going to be hot. 113 degrees the way it'll feel in Jacksonville, Florida. It'll feel
00:39like 113 in Jackson, Mississippi. In Oklahoma City it'll feel like 110 and in Miami also 110 for our
00:47AccuWeather real field temperature. Let's take a look at some actual air temps. You're going to notice
00:51we're not far from those AccuWeather real fields in places like Oklahoma City. So it's a drier heat
00:57in OKC. Actual forecast high 109 and the AccuWeather real field temperature will make it feel
01:05like 110. In Miami it'll feel like 110 as well even though it's a 97 degree actual high temp which
01:14would also be a record breaker. Daily record highs here for August 19th. But again the AccuWeather real
01:22field temperature in both Oklahoma City and Miami 110. Actual air temp 12 degrees different between
01:29those two places. So again just blistering heat. 102 in Savannah. Typically these coastal places
01:35are moderated so much by the water that it's really tough to break 100 degrees. In fact Miami's all time
01:42record high is 100. We're within three degrees of that. We haven't been to 96 on an August 19th since
01:481909.
01:49We haven't been above 99 in Savannah on an August 19th in Savannah since 1900. We did it three times
01:56between 1878, 1899, 1900. We've been fortunate to not have that kind of heat on August 19th since then
02:02but we're going to break that record tomorrow. Memphis we're going to break a record that was set
02:06just last year. How are we doing the day after that? Let's go from Wednesday. Let's jump ahead to
02:13Thursday. Here's Thursday. We've got a beautiful shot there of Charleston, South Carolina in the
02:18background. Here you can see we begin to back off of true records in most areas but it's still going
02:25to be really hot out there. So we're not explicitly forecasting records in these areas but it's going
02:31to be close. And when we get into Friday you're going to begin to notice a gradual shift in the
02:37cities
02:38that we're listing and also we're a little shy of records but it will still be hot. So we only
02:43have
02:43one Florida place here. Most of these are in the central or even west central part of the nation here,
02:50Texas in McAllen and in Borger way up in the panhandle there in Borger's case McAllen down by
02:56the Rio Grande. And we're going to be still hot in Albuquerque in Alamosa 86 within three degrees of the
03:01record. So there's going to be a gradual shift westward with the big time heat late this week
03:05gradually peeling away from the southeast. I wanted to show this to you here. Now this graphic
03:11here shows the 500 millibar heights. We're looking at about 20,000 feet up in the atmosphere
03:16and when something is hot it expands. When the air heats up it expands. So we get basically this
03:22mountain of air over heat and a valley of air over cooler weather. And overall you can see we're
03:31a bit cooler than the norm here for the Great Lakes area. I didn't mean to step away from that
03:37product
03:37here. I want to stay here. You can see we're a little cooler than the average historical average for
03:42this time of the year in the Great Lakes and hotter than the historical average here in the west and
03:46across the south here on Wednesday. And the margin by which we're above average may not be that
03:52impressive in the south but even if you're five degrees above average in Savannah you're close to a
03:57record because the water moderates the atmosphere there. If you're five above average in Miami you're
04:02probably dealing with a record high or close to it this time of the year. You got to be 20
04:05above
04:06average in Bismarck because you're landlocked so your climate's much more amplified there.
04:12But the message here is that there's gradually a shift into the west with the heat into the Rockies
04:17and away from the east. So we're going to find some relief in the southeast into the weekend.
04:23Thankfully it'll be a big change after where we've been. It's still going to be hot. It's always
04:27hot this time of the year there in Georgia but compared to the norm it won't be as bad and
04:32it's
04:32going to be way better than it had been. Here's another way of looking at this. This is the shift
04:36of tails. This does account for kind of the dampening effect that water has on a climate.
04:42So if you're five above average in coastal South Carolina you're going to get a strong signal this
04:47time of the year. Five above in the Dakotas you're not going to see a strong signal. So this actually
04:51builds that into the anomaly and I think this is more valuable. It's the shift of tails.
04:56It's a statistical way of looking at extremes. So you can see the extreme heat in the southeast
05:01and the south central and then we begin to see this weekend it's still a signal of a little
05:07cooler than the norm up here in the Midwest and the Great Lakes and still actually a little
05:13hotter than average but not by much in the southeast and it anchors over areas like the
05:18southern plains.
05:20I wanted to show you something else as we heat up in the west. You can see the big ridge.
05:24Here's the big ridge. This is that mountain of air I talked about. Large area encircled
05:29by that 594 height line. Talking about kind of the swell of the atmosphere under the heat.
05:36But I wanted to show something else. Look at what happens here. We get a squeeze play.
05:40Squeeze plays are sometimes dangerous in the weather when we get these strong contrasts in smaller
05:44zones. We have an area of low pressure over British Columbia and incoming front associated
05:50with that. Let's try to draw that a little better there. I'm having a hard time trying
05:57to draw our cold front. You know what? I'm just going to draw blue. I'm just going to
06:01draw it in a different form. I don't know what's competing with this but there we can get
06:05it a little bit better. And with this you can see that we're dealing with some lines
06:10that are kind of compressing here. That is going to drive some wind. So we heat up.
06:15We've been dry. And now we begin to see some wind. Let's look at the wind here in the northwest.
06:19We're going to be dealing with a breezier time with some spots gusting 20, 25, 30 miles per
06:25hour. The fire season has been pretty bad. We're concerned about more fire danger in the
06:31days to come. So here's a quick look as we close at the stats, the fire stats. We've had
06:367.2 million acres burnt this year. Typically by now we'd have 4.3 million. We're concerned
06:42about fire danger in the Pacific Northwest ramping back up this weekend.
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