What’s really happening in the housing market?

Name: What’s really happening in the housing market?
Uploaded: 2026-08-18T08:00:15+00:00
Duration: 24 min 37 s
Channel: HousingWire

00:10Welcome, everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about what's

00:15really happening in housing today after some inflammatory headlines over the weekend. Before

00:21we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on HousingWire.com. First, we have Logan's

00:25foreclosure story, why 2026 foreclosure gains are not a housing crash signal, followed by UWM faces

00:33class action lawsuit over hedge strategy. Then we have the latest tracker, inventory edges slightly

00:39higher year over year as rates rise. And Zillow layoff details show severance terms and senior

00:45roles cut. Finally, we have where are boomers and Gen X moving in 2026. Okay, let's get to our topic

00:52today. Logan, welcome back to the podcast. And I must say, you did a great job doing the solo

00:57podcast that aired today. See, I don't know why you're always worried that I'm going to go off

01:02the rails. You know, I, I saved that for Twitter and X, man, you know, so it was a really

01:09good podcast.

01:10I thought it was great. And you covered a topic that I think a lot of people were talking about

01:14questions about and it was you kept it on point. Yeah, it's, it's one of these topics, you know,

01:20of course you get negative feedback about, you know, not, not being so positive on the capital

01:26gains being a increase or take it away. But also I thought it was good that other people just

01:33opened up themselves to the idea, wait a second, this might be actually an inflationary thing for,

01:39for first time home buyers in that sense. So it was good. It got a conversation starting at least on

01:45that. No, I really appreciate it. Of course, I was at my sister's could not get on wifi for whatever

01:49reason. So, so thankful. Today's topic, very interesting. Okay. So over the weekend,

01:55we had people run with some numbers that then you were happy to correct them on. Why don't you recap

02:01for us what happened? You know, it was a fun weekend for me, you know, I mean, it was one

02:07of

02:07the more fun weekends. Oh, just bless Redford for, for, for that, for that one chart. But you know,

02:15when I read the tracker report and today the pending home sales data should come out and the

02:21pending home sales should, should be slower now, you know, the tracker is designed to keep everyone

02:27ahead of what's going on. And what we've seen is whenever mortgage rates get above 6.64, things slow

02:33down. That slowdown isn't as prevalent as it was in previous years, mostly because rates have not

02:39gotten above 7%. So here I am Saturday kind of writing, Hey, listen, the track, you know what,

02:47there's really not much going on. And I don't know, like if people know how to talk about it,

02:53you know, I just, I just think it's, we have a difficulty just saying there's not much going on,

03:00but in this day and age and Lord have mercy. Every doomer account in the United States of America

03:08went completely bat crazy on Redfins. It's the lowest demand ever. It was 2008. It was worse than

03:172008. They brought 1929 every, and it was the whole group. It's like all, all, it's all these

03:23guys, the same guys always, and they have really big, uh, X account. So of course I injected myself

03:31and, and, and I just couldn't let it, and I kept all of them within a thread. And when people

03:37actually got to see what, what this being said, um, so I just, to me, it's, I, I got some

03:48doomers

03:49to realize they're getting played here because the existing home sales report in July for, uh, the,

03:54the NAR was actually positive year over year. Inventories down slightly earlier and prices

03:59were up slightly up, like not much is going on. It's like we've talked about, there's not much

04:03going on, but it just went into this bonanza. But I, I said, guys, existing home sales was like

04:09the seasonal adjust is like over 4 million. Where's this 967,000 numbers that they're coming

04:15up with? And they're like, you know, go look at the 900. What is that number? Yeah. It's the,

04:20it's the, how many, you know, buyers are out there. It's all time low. And, and I said a month

04:26ago,

04:26Redfin was like, Oh, home prices are up 2.2%. Cause demand was rising. You know,

04:31I show them the article and how do you go from that to it's the lowest demand ever with the

04:35most

04:35sellers, you know? And it was nice to see that some boomers were boomers, some doomers,

04:41boomer, doomers are the same thing really, to be honest with me. Um, that they're like,

04:45wait a second, this doesn't seem right. You know? So it was, it was a good thing that even some

04:51of the

04:51doomer people can get, you know, uh, up to date with what's going on. But the reality is it's not

04:57much.

04:58And I, I, the tracker is designed to teach that because to me, if you saw a big, uh, uh,

05:05escalation

05:06in sales falling, uh, our weekly pending home sales would be noticeably lower. Uh, purchase

05:11application data is when you start to see really big declines, you're easily double digits. You're

05:16down 15 to 20%. Uh, during the crash, uh, back then, uh, uh, purchase application data was down 35,

05:2443% year over year. Purchase application data was down 1%. You know, um, there, it was a positive

05:32week to week. It was down 1%. Our weekly pending sales data was, uh, slightly lower year over year.

05:37Uh, our price cut percentages is picking up to, to try to get almost on par with, with last year's

05:43data. So there's not this big aggregate move, but it just, it just exploded into this whole

05:48kind of doom porn fest on the weekend and trying to get people in line to what the current data.

05:54And then once people got to see the tracker, you know, I showed some of those charts.

05:59They go, wow, that's yeah. I said, this is it. I, I, and I go back to the original statement.

06:04I don't know how, if, how many people can actually talk about this. Cause I think it's more complicated

06:10when things are slower because there's actually a real good, healthy story. The market is just

06:15trying to work itself out. Uh, uh, affordability is not getting worse, right? Cause of price growth

06:20is in check. If home prices were up five or 6% this year, that's different. I can't say that

06:25anymore. Uh, uh, uh, prices are outpacing wages, but that's not the case. And it was just difficult

06:31for people to get, cause they see this one headline and then you got to go fight all the doomers

06:35out

06:35there in America, which I love to do, of course. And then you get people to like, get them back

06:40into

06:40reality. And reality is there's just not this, there's not any big velocity moves to the upside

06:45or downside. And even if mortgage rates were near 6%, uh, uh, um, the velocity of the move to the

06:52upside is still limited to the green. I think this is what's interesting about the tracker. So every

06:58week, you know, you look at the data and you decide, um, you cover the same points, but you decide,

07:03well, what is the, what is the main point? What's the headline going to be? And you go over those

07:08things first, you know, it depends on, on what you're focusing on, what the order of the data is.

07:13And this is a conversation we have often in a, in a time period like now where I'm like,

07:17isn't that the same as last week? Or like, what, what's the difference or whatever. And I think

07:21it's actually the strength of the tracker is that week by week, you're just saying what is,

07:26and you're tracking it and you're explaining why, and it doesn't have to be, we don't have to come up

07:31with a giant headline every time because it's just there for like, this is what's actually happening.

07:37And that is difficult in our society. And, and, and I, I realized this, I, I begrudgingly,

07:46I really feel bad for a fellow data miner who's trying to get his work out there. And it just,

07:52he just, he just does not have the personality or he doesn't have the style. So he's kind of gone

07:56into doom porn land. And, and, and I could, I see the struggle. I see the struggle in trying to

08:03generate views. You know, I mean, I've been doing it for a long time. So, I mean, I just,

08:09you know, you, I mean, the, the chart daddy is in a sense, a character actor of entertainment

08:13in a sense, but we really focus just, just on the pure data and, and trying to teach it.

08:20And I think that's the difference. We want to teach people how to read data correctly. We don't

08:24want people to come to us for this magnanimous view that happens every day, apparently in some world,

08:31some cases of the world. So I think that's, that's why the tracker is more useful in something

08:37like this situation where sometimes there's just not a very, very big thing. Now, housing demand is

08:44slowing rates getting above six points, same premise that we've had for years. This is, this is no,

08:50nothing different. Purchase application data, which was running at seven to 12% year over year growth

08:55is starting to have down 1%, down 2%, only up 2%, you know, very, very low, low levels of data.

09:03Now our weekly pending home sales, which was noticeably higher on a year over year basis,

09:08two of the last four weeks have been down slightly. Even the positive data is, is only slightly high.

09:14There's really not much happening, but I think how I wanted to showcase this was that inventory

09:19growth is 1.28% after the big rate move, right? The new listings data, uh, uh, is going to

09:28its

09:28seasonal decline. Nothing abnormal is happening there. And I just think it's hard for a society

09:34that is used to these crazy headlines and, you know, that to kind of get back into the pure data

09:40sense of it all. Why I love 2026 is because the market is working itself, right? Inventory is at a

09:46level to where it keeps prices in check. You know, a lot of people say you can't get rates down

09:50to 6%

09:51home prices will take off though. We've done it now, right? And prices didn't really take off. Now

09:55my price forecast is, is wrong so far this year. I was looking for a little slight decline on a

10:02year

10:02of year basis. And we'll see if the higher rates going after the rest of the year get us there,

10:06but

10:07this is just what it is this year. And it's been pretty consistent, uh, on that rates get in year

10:13six, demand picks up rates, get above 6.64, the higher duration and slows down, but there isn't,

10:18there's not much velocity, uh, either way. I think we have a huge advantage because our audience is,

10:23uh, housing professionals. So we are trying to give them the information they need to make

10:28business decisions, not to be, you know, like, uh, crazy. And, and I think that it's really important

10:34to have that balance because all of their consumers, all of their customers are reading,

10:39you know, the mainstream press and might be being like, wait, there's so many, there's so many

10:43sellers or not enough buyers. It sounds like a great, you know, a terrible time to do a home.

10:47And it's like, they need to know what's actually happening. Even if it's, you know, just like

10:51steadily working itself out. You know, I said, it's the craziest year for sales to be up 2.4%

10:59year to date, you know, with the headlines that were given. And it's just a little bit of growth.

11:03And I mean, the whole forecast is here is rates get under six and a quarter. You could get 237

11:09,000.

11:09It wasn't even a big forecast with rates near 6%. So again, my job is just to teach and regulate

11:17at times. Cause if you let people go unchecked and unchallenged, you start to see those crazy

11:22narratives. And we, we put them all down there. It was one homeboy brought in 1929 that I was like,

11:30we didn't even have social security or anything like back then at that time. It just,

11:36there's just some people that were just born into some kind of doom clan and this can't really get

11:41out of it. But, but I think it's, I think for, for, for us, it's so much of the discussion

11:46is a

11:4610 year yield and rates and everything. I don't think I, I, I, I shared a really interesting chart from

11:52a colleague at Bloomberg. If you look at the straight of Hormuz, the tanker travel and it

12:00just fell when the war started, the conflict started. And then the 10 year yield started to go

12:05up. And as there's no traffic in the Hormuz, the 10 year yield keeps on going higher, higher.

12:12The only time the 10 year yield fell is when traffic picked up. And then when traffic fell down again,

12:17the 10 year yield. So, so this year to me, it's, you're adding a new variable that, you know,

12:24I think a lot of people just, Kevin Walsh was going to come in and cut rates and everything,

12:29your rates are, and then the conflict change and you have to, this is why you have to go with

12:33any

12:34new variable. You can't like run away from it. And to me, it was, as long as the conflict kept

12:39on

12:39going or staying up longer, the federal reserve was going to stay hawkish because they don't,

12:44they don't like the supply shock, right? We keep on having these supply shocks and they don't want

12:50policy to be loose or they want it a little bit more restrictive, even though you're not technically

12:56supposed to fall, like follow a supply shock. The conflict makes them uneasy. And, you know,

13:03visually when people see that chart and they look at the 10 year yields, things start to make a little

13:07bit sense. And I think, again, that's part of the trackers thing is to add in something very,

13:12very new and you just got to go with it out there and explain how this impacts the data.

13:18And again, mortgage spreads, once again, the unsung hero, because even though we're not at 7%,

13:26even though with all the crazy conflict news that we've had, we still have not broken above 7%

13:32because spreads have kind of done their thing. And this is why we wrote that article a few weeks ago

13:37about why is it hard to get mortgage rates of upset? You really need the Fed to get more hawkish

13:41and the conflicts to get worse. Oil prices to get up back up to a hundred and stuff like that.

13:47It's so funny. I was around a family this weekend, some extended family,

13:50and I had two different people. I was like, oh my gosh, this is what our mortgage professionals

13:55and housing professionals, you know, real estate too, face every day. But one person came up to me

14:00and was like, okay, when are our rates going to be back to 3% so I can sell my

14:04house? I was like,

14:05never. Like, do you cannot count on rates going to 3%? I said, if you're lucky, we'll get to

14:126%,

14:12closer to 6% by the end of the year. I was like, that's really where we are. And, you

14:17know, but

14:18that conversation is tough to have with people, I'm sure. But like, you know, that's the conversation

14:25our professionals have to be ready to have. So how I try to teach realtors and loan officers

14:32to talk about this, I say that we do not have any history in the United States of America.

14:39If the Fed fund policy neutral, neutral is where the Federal Reserve was heading towards. So let's

14:45just say there is no tariffs, no conflict. Even if the Federal Reserve got its rate cuts in,

14:52it's very difficult to get mortgage rates under 5.75. And that's it. There's nobody talking about

14:57taking the Fed funds rate below zero. This is why getting to 6% takes a lot. It takes the

15:03labor

15:03market to get weaker. And I just say, we just don't have history. So what you are waiting for

15:09needs a recession, needs the Fed to get very dovish, needs the spreads to be normal or even better.

15:15Um, because there is no history of that, right there. It's not a shock that mortgage rates have

15:23not gotten below 5.75 in recent history, because there's the Fed target. It doesn't take you there.

15:29That's how I try to explain it to people, because you always get, oh, so-and-so said rates are

15:35going

15:35to go to 3% or for, you know, people with big social media fell on. Oh, my Kevin Wurst

15:41is going to

15:41cut rates and mortgage rates are going to be four and a half percent very soon. I was like,

15:45that's not how it works, you know? And this is, this is the complicated part about social media

15:51and influencers and then dealing with data people. Data people in general, aren't the most exciting.

15:57And a lot of times they don't give like the best news ever. But if you listen to somebody, well,

16:02AI is going to take all the jobs and we're going to have a deep recession and don't worry, rates

16:06are,

16:06and I was just like, no, no, that's not, that's, you know, a lot of things have to change before

16:12you

16:12even start to have that covered. And we're, we're not in any of those things. And this is why we

16:16track

16:17economic data. This is why we track labor data, jobless claims or residential construction workers

16:21and, and everything that goes with it, because it's a slow dance, but the slow dance doesn't take

16:27you to three or four or even 5% mortgage rates, unless certain things change and we're not there yet.

16:33I mean, technically guys, we, if you take COVID out of the equation, we haven't had a recession in 16

16:37years. A lot has changed after the new rules and regulations have come into place and corporate

16:44profits are still very healthy. They're, they're well above the post-World War II average. So it's a

16:50very different cycle than what people are accustomed to. And I think it's the hard part is getting people

16:54to get in line with what's happening currently right now versus to what they're accustomed to in the

17:00past. Well, you've gone through a lot of the data points that you cover in the tracker and you

17:05mentioned, uh, mortgage spreads, anything else that you want to talk about there, especially as we're

17:10heading into fall, some of the, uh, data lines there that you think, you know, yeah, we should see

17:15these fall because of, uh, the seasonality. So I just recently had this conversation. I think to me,

17:21it's, uh, getting closer to the midterms. Does that change any of the government policies

17:27toward the conflict out there and what is trying to be done with housing? Of course,

17:32you're, you're hearing things about portable mortgages, like some, some, uh, Senator put up

17:36something about portable mortgages. You can't rewrite those contracts, uh, uh, in the past.

17:42This is why I think the portable mortgage doesn't work with our system. You'd have to rewrite contracts

17:47and then you have to price things differently. That's why I don't think that's, so you're going to

17:51see a lot of, didn't we hear that last year? Wasn't that portable mortgage was something that,

17:55and it really didn't get much play because people looked at it and go, it's not, it's not feasible

17:59here in the U S but the closer you get to midterms, the more promises you're going to see that

18:05will

18:05never happen, but they're going to happen. You know, that's just how midterms work. So does this

18:10actually change the conflict the closer you get? I, could you imagine the conflict still going on

18:16during the midterms? You know, you even got to see some of the approval ratings from Republicans

18:22that are usually very high start to sour down. So we'll see if that happens because if the conflict

18:29ends, then you can move back to the tariffs, one-off inflationary being a price thing that goes away.

18:35Uh, and if the labor data gets a little bit softer, well, how does the federal reserve and bond markets

18:40treat that? That's what I'm thinking about for the rest of this year. Uh, it's August. We're, we're about to

18:46get ready for the, you know, uh, uh, uh, back to school so that we start to see the seasonal

18:51decline

18:52in, in a lot of the housing data, but we always make sure to track everything. Cause in the past

18:57you used to have like in 2023, mortgage rates got to 8% like in October, right? That's when the

19:02spreads

19:03and everything got bad and stuff. So you can move data that's very, very, very, uh, key, uh, even late

19:09in the year, but I really am. I really am interested on this conflict versus the federal reserve labor

19:15data and midterms. How does this work itself out? Because I, I, what I tell people is I tell Beth

19:22hammock wants rate hikes so fast because she's worried that if the labor data gets softer, she

19:27doesn't care about the labor data getting softer. So it doesn't matter to her. She just wants the rate

19:32hikes before the labor data might get softer. And it prevents, uh, uh, the, the other four governors

19:38from voting for rate hikes, you know? So, so there's, there's, there's a lot to go on right

19:44now for the rest of the year that you keep an eye on. And this is what we hear. I

19:47like, I tell

19:48people I have no life. This is all I do. I love football. I watch football. I'll play some call

19:54of duty, but that's pretty much it. And to me, I'm really looking at that relationship to see

19:59how does a 10 year yield react? Because we've been up here for a while, but we've not made in

20:04that

20:04next leg higher, even with all the crazy headlines because so much is already kind of priced in. I

20:10think mortgage pricing this morning I saw was 4.73. And by the time this podcast comes out, we're

20:16going to have pending home sales, which should be softer. Uh, uh, the builder's confidence wasn't

20:21great. Uh, housing starts, housing starts to so wild month to month that, but you know, not much

20:26is happening there. Uh, uh, and then we start to get ready, you know, to see, uh, uh, how the

20:32next PC inflation jobs reports will move the bond market. And again, the 10 year yield and

20:38more in housing demand moves, move in, in itself is a slow dance as well, right? The 10 year yield

20:44and, uh, and, and housing demand, uh, do tend to, uh, track each other, uh, pretty well over the last

20:4915 years. Well, this is a great place to mention to our audience that on October 1st, you are going

20:55to be our keynote speaker at the mortgage banking summit here in Dallas at the president George

21:00Bush, uh, library, presidential library. And what, what is your theme that you told me yesterday?

21:05What is your, uh, if I'm allowed to say, I was like, stop crying about mortgage rates. There are

21:09other things to, you know, um, you know, I mean, there's, there's really not much movement now,

21:17you know, I mean, half a percent move lower actually gets you better, but this is kind of what's

21:23happening with housing is actually very healthy because the government didn't really get too involved

21:27into trying to prop it up this time around, uh, uh, and inventory's up price growth, the

21:33slowing down, it's kind of working itself. But I always, I always look at people and say,

21:36what do I always say about the builder, Sarah? They are the March of Dimes, but they're not the

21:41March of Dimes, but they're also efficient sellers. There are things to do. Like why are, why are new

21:47home sales still at 2019 levels? You know, uh, yeah. So, so, so there, there are levers to pull that

21:55maybe the mortgage and real estate industry doesn't, but I think, you know, I, at this point

22:02rates going up lower, there's still enough demand out there to get, get things done. Right. If we saw

22:07the new listings data started to tank like it did toward the second half of 2022, that would be a

22:13problem. Right. Cause you need, you need sellers that are going to be buyers. That's not the case

22:16anymore. Right. There's plenty of, there's plenty of homes. There's no inventory shortage where there's

22:21no homes to buy because that whole, that whole discussion point needs to end anyway. But, uh,

22:26the, the market is in a healthier place than what it could have been. Right. Uh, uh, I think if,

22:32if you have new listings data declining and people delisting and, and, and not having inventory as high

22:39as it is, let's say inventories back to, you know, 2022 or 2023, that's a, that's a problematic market

22:45because then prices are, can still rise in this. We don't have that. So, so it's time to like get,

22:50you guys got to gear yourself up for growth because you don't see these crashes and sales anymore,

22:56no matter what Redfin says on their headlines, but there are people getting a job done. The talented

23:01people are getting their job done, learn how to use the data to be at advantage. So you don't sit

23:08and we have a unrealistic expectations for your sellers. And then you just waste three or four months,

23:14you know, and then have them go, okay, I'll wait till next year.

23:17No, I love that. Plus, uh, by that time, we'll know what, uh, what happened at the September

23:22Fed meeting. We'll know if the, uh, conflict is still going on. We'll be closer to midterms. It's

23:27going to be a great timing on that. Uh, looking forward to it.

23:30Boy, if I could just go back in time and go, Mr. President, which is, if you're gonna,

23:35if you're gonna do this, have a game plan about, you know, them shooting missiles, right? Uh,

23:40clearly you could see the frustration now. Uh, I think, uh, uh, president Trump even threatened

23:46to bomb Oman, uh, this morning, you know, uh, uh, so there, there's, there's a, there's a lot,

23:51there's a lot going on that this is a con, this is a conflict and a variable that we all

23:57have to

23:57work with because it does impact housing demand, but there it's still a functioning housing market,

24:03right? Inventory is at healthier levels. We're perfectly fine. New listings data is,

24:08it was positive year over year. You know, there's there, the life is moving on. And sometimes

24:14people just get stuck too much on headlines that you don't need to, right? Nobody's going to care

24:19for your pity party. Get to it people, you know? All right, Logan, we are out of time. Thank you

24:24so much. And we will talk again soon. Pleasure.

What’s really happening in the housing market?

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