00:00Currently, the Washington, which has been in charge
00:02of the Indo-Pacific, is moving to the Middle East.
00:04As a result, even the assets that were permanently deployed
00:07in the Indo-Pacific region are being withdrawn,
00:09creating a power vacuum.
00:10According to the Wall Street Journal,
00:11the Washington in the Indo-Pacific is preparing
00:13to go to the Middle East to replace the Lincoln,
00:15which has been operating in the Middle East conflict.
00:18The Washington was forward deployed to Japan in 2008
00:20to keep China in check.
00:22After undergoing maintenance,
00:23it was redeployed to Japan in 2024.
00:25As you all know, the Washington is a force
00:27that has been forward deployed so it can respond quickly
00:29if a crisis occurs in the Northeast Asia region.
00:31But if you take this away?
00:33When a crisis occurs in Northeast Asia,
00:35there will be a shortage of forces
00:36that can respond immediately.
00:38Right now, US military power in Northeast Asia
00:40is already decreasing.
00:42The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, 2,500 troops
00:45based in Okinawa, Japan, was sent to the Middle East
00:47with the amphibious assault ship Tripoli.
00:49At one point, THAAD from Korea
00:50was also redeployed to the Middle East.
00:52Asian countries are understandably concerned
00:54about the gap in US military power.
00:56Right away.
00:57Even when facing direct threats like the Cuban Missile Crisis,
01:01the US maintained its military presence in Northeast Asia.
01:04Now, President Trump is shifting these forces
01:06to the Middle East.
01:07The USS George Washington was urgently sent
01:10to the Middle East due to the USS Lincoln,
01:13which has been active in the region for over 250 days.
01:16Concerns are rising about the Lincoln crew's
01:19poor living conditions and mental health.
01:21In the case of the Lincoln,
01:22its deployment period has become unusually long.
01:24Out of the 250 days, it has reportedly continued its operations at sea
01:28for over 200 days without docking at a port even once.
01:31It was supposed to finish its mission and return in May,
01:34but as the war continued, it has now operated for over nine months.
01:37This is the longest operational deployment in the history of the US Navy.
01:41Above all, with supplies from Bahrain currently blocked and supply routes through the Suez Canal also cut off,
01:46they are relying on just one supply ship to continue their operations.
01:50Because of this, when you look at the meals being served on the Lincoln now,
01:53you might even wonder if this is really the food provided by the US military,
01:56as the conditions have become that poor.
01:59Basic necessities are running out, hygiene is worsening, and supply issues persist.
02:04With about 5,000 crew members on the aircraft carrier,
02:07it's like supplying a whole village constantly.
02:10But the supply ship can't just bring food and necessities.
02:13It must also carry weapons and ammunition.
02:16This makes it very hard to keep up with supplies using only one ship.
02:20Michael Eby, a Democratic member of the House of Representatives from California,
02:23claims there are problems such as moldy showers, broken toilets,
02:26laundry facilities that haven't worked for weeks,
02:28prolonged hot water shortages,
02:30meals consisting of just half a cup of rice and two tortillas,
02:33and a lack of soap, deodorant, and toothpaste.
02:36A US Navy official told the British Guardian that although long-term operations are putting
02:40considerable strain on our service members and their families,
02:43they have not confirmed an increase in suicide attempts aboard the ships.
02:47However, it is reported that actual suicides continue to occur.
02:50Stars and Stripes, citing family members, reported that sailors on the Lincoln are experiencing
02:56fatigue and low morale.
02:58In July, one sailor jumped into the sea but was rescued.
03:01On August 11, the US military magazine Navy Times reported that families of sailors aboard
03:06the Lincoln testified about several attempts to jump overboard.
03:09As the situation worsened, the US quickly decided to replace the Lincoln NAM and redeployed
03:14forces from East Asia to the Middle East.
03:16But the main problem starts when the George Washington heads to the Middle East.
03:21If the Washington leaves to replace the Lincoln, there is a possibility that there will be a
03:25period without any US aircraft carriers in the Pacific for a while.
03:28The US might deploy another aircraft carrier, but current reports suggest there may be a
03:33gap between when the Washington leaves and a new carrier starts operating in the Pacific.
03:39This gap is now being taken more seriously because the US Navy's aircraft carrier maintenance
03:43schedule was already impacted by the prolonged Iran conflict.
03:47Brian Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told the Wall Street Journal on
03:50the 13th that the Iran conflict is delaying maintenance for US aircraft carriers.
03:54He predicted that it could take up to three years for the US Navy fleet to return to an
03:59ideal state of readiness.
04:00This goes beyond the current issue of moving a single US aircraft carrier and affects the
04:04entire rotation and maintenance capability of the carrier fleet.
04:08The US Navy operates its aircraft carriers in a rotation system, where after a certain
04:12period of operations, they undergo maintenance, resupply, and crew changes before being deployed
04:16for combat again.
04:17However, as the war with Iran is lasting longer than expected, there is a growing possibility
04:22that the previously planned schedules for carrier operations, returns, and maintenance will
04:26be delayed in a chain reaction.
04:28If one aircraft carrier performs combat missions longer than expected, the timing of deploying other
04:32carriers is also affected, and even the carriers scheduled for maintenance will have
04:35their schedules pushed back.
04:37Even if the US keeps the same total number of aircraft carriers, the number ready for
04:42immediate deployment could drop.
04:45That's the issue researcher Brian Clark mentioned, right?
04:47Normally, the George Washington patrols areas like Japan and the Philippines in the Pacific,
04:53signaling the United States' ongoing commitment to the region's security.
04:56Even if the deployed aircraft carrier is not actually engaged in combat, simply patrolling
05:00the area regularly and conducting joint training with allied countries serves as a way to demonstrate
05:05the United States military commitment.
05:07If the George Washington moves to the Middle East, the United States will have to abandon
05:11these activities.
05:13Researcher Clark said this decision causes the United States to lose all strategic opportunities
05:17to shape relations with neighboring countries.
05:20This issue is especially important for Taiwan and Japan.
05:23Due to China's continued military actions in the South and East China Seas, US aircraft
05:27carrier patrols and joint exercises show vital military responsiveness.
05:31An aircraft carrier in the region signals the US can rapidly boost military power, but if
05:36sent to the Middle East, fulfilling that role becomes harder.
05:40Therefore, this movement isn't just about relocating one aircraft carrier, it could also
05:44impact the US military presence and activities shown to its Pacific allies.
05:49Then?
05:49We can view it this way.
05:51China might see the current situation as an opportunity, though it hasn't happened yet
05:55and is only one possibility.
05:56Currently, there are no forward-deployed US aircraft carriers in East Asia, and on top
06:01of that, there are seasonal factors to consider.
06:03It's also worth noting that October, when typhoons usually subside, is approaching.
06:07To conduct large-scale military operations in the Taiwan Strait, weather and sea conditions
06:12are key factors.
06:14Would China consider these seasonal factors if planning military action?
06:18We can't say China's chances of invading Taiwan have risen just because a US aircraft carrier
06:23left.
06:24China must also consider overall US military strength, including forces in Japan, Guam,
06:29South Korea, and possible reinforcements from the US mainland, right?
06:33Taiwan also has its own defensive capabilities, so for China to decide to invade would be a
06:37choice that involves taking a very big risk.
06:40So saying China is actually preparing for an invasion is an exaggeration.
06:45More dangerous is if China misjudges the actual balance of forces and underestimates
06:50America's ability to respond.
06:51Taiwan
06:52If Chinese leaders think the US is focused on the Middle East, lacks carriers in East Asia,
06:57and has dispersed military assets, they might wrongly assume the US can't intervene as
07:02quickly as before.
07:05Such miscalculations may worsen as China ramps up military exercises near Taiwan or expands
07:10its sea and air activities.
07:12The main question remains.
07:13The question is whether the United States can sustain its current military response if major
07:18crises happen at the same time in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific.
07:21If conflicts with Iran persist and the Taiwan Strait becomes a crisis zone, the US will
07:25need to deploy aircraft carriers and other military assets to several regions at once.
07:30More crucial than total military strength is being prepared to operate in multiple theaters
07:34simultaneously.
07:35Currently, much of the US air defense missile supply is depleted.
07:39The United States also seems to be struggling with the war in the Middle East.
07:42The danger of the current aircraft carrier gap isn't that China will necessarily attack,
07:48but how China assesses the US military being spread out.
07:51The bigger concern is how a misjudgment by China could quickly draw both countries into conflict.
07:57The United States will probably never give up on Taiwan.
07:59If Taiwan falls, the Pacific Ocean is right in front of them, so they will try to stop it
08:04no matter what.
08:04Immediate response forces have been deployed to the Middle East, creating a major problem.
08:09Meanwhile, no new rotation is available to quickly fill the Pacific Gap.
08:13Solving this problem has become an issue of great interest.
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