- 5 days ago
From the resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan and the CJP-led youth protests to by-election surprises in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, has Indian politics entered a new phase?
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00:05two dramatic weeks in Indian politics
00:12Gen Z protests over paper leaks go viral
00:18cjp protests force minister to resign
00:26opposition corners government in Parliament he either ordered it or he has
00:33no idea what's going on in his ministry and he's incompetent in either case he
00:38has to go Prime Minister Modi takes train stuff reaches out to Gen Z friends
00:45I don't know okay paper leak a quick mamoli vision I mean I'd
00:58fast track court Kelly a we've hungover near this day after Jantar Mantar now
01:08agitation in charter
01:12Prashant Kishore storms BJP's fortress
01:34It's the political wheel turning.
01:39Political round table with Rajdeep Sardesai.
01:47Hello and welcome once again to the weekly round table.
01:52It's been quite a week or dare I say a fortnight that has seen plenty of political ups and downs
01:58and surprises.
02:00It began with the resignation of Union Education Minister Dharamendra Pradhan after the Jantar Mantar Kokruj Janta Party led youth
02:08protests.
02:09It then snowballed into youth protests in other parts of the country, most notably in Jarkhand, bringing a new vocabulary
02:17into Indian politics.
02:18Gen Z, the under 30 cohort, is on everyone's lip.
02:23In fact, every politician worth their social media account is rushing now to be on Instagram.
02:30We've also seen by-elections where a Prashant Kishore, the election strategist turned Jan Suraj Party leader, won the big
02:38ticket Baakipur seat in Bihar.
02:40A seat held by the BJP President Nitin Nabeen and which the BJP hasn't lost since 1995.
02:46In Madhya Pradesh, another BJP bastion, the Congress won in Duttia.
02:51And in Parliament too, the government has been on the back foot both on pellet gun injuries and delimitation with
02:58Rahul Gandhi and the opposition leading the charge there.
03:02So what has changed, if anything?
03:06Is the political wind beginning to shift or is that a misreading of the big picture where the BJP remains
03:13India's party number one and Modi leader number one by some distance, according to most observers?
03:21Joining us now on the show, please welcome my special guests.
03:25I'm joined by Rahul Verma, fellow at Centre for Policy Research.
03:31Joined by Sanjay Kumar, one of the country's leading cephalogists.
03:35Joined by Manisha Priyam, senior political analyst and someone who's been in academia for years.
03:42Amitabh Tiwari, founder of VoteWive, he's been tracking polls in recent times.
03:47And Rajat Sethi, political analyst who's also worked with the Bharatiya Janata Party.
03:52So good to have all of you on the show and we're going to try and decode what's happened in
03:57this remarkable fortnight, or dare I say, since July 20th.
04:03Let's raise the question first that's on everyone's lip.
04:07Gen Z factor, is it real or is it hype?
04:12Before I come to you all, I just want to give what are the numbers as per the election commission
04:17on Gen Z.
04:19So that we get it right in percentage terms, how many people are in this Gen Z cohort.
04:26As per the election commission, May 2024, 18 to 29 was 22.78%.
04:3230 to 59 was the bulk, 60 to 60% up.
04:3760 to 79 was 14.7%, 80 plus 1.87.
04:42So there's a large cohort under the age of 40, out of which Gen Z is a major component.
04:50So are we seeing Gen Z's rise?
04:54Is it real or is it hype?
04:56Rahul Verma, why don't you go first?
04:58You've been writing about it in recent times.
05:00Do you see Gen Z becoming a new vote bank of sorts that political parties have only discovered, some would
05:07say, in the last few weeks?
05:10See there, Rajdeep, thank you.
05:12There have always been young voters in our politics.
05:16In fact, what seems to be happening, that the proportion of young voters have stabilized.
05:22In that sense, it's shrinking.
05:23Now, if you have one fourth of total voters who are in the 18 to 29 category, 20 years back,
05:30this number used to be more than 30%.
05:32So just thinking in terms of like young voters as a voting bloc, that proportion has not increased.
05:40What is different now that you are getting a young voter who's educated, who's urban, who's digitally connected?
05:48And this is a very different category, which is also aspirational and is not tied to old political loyalties as
05:56in the past, because this is a very different category.
06:00And we have seen this outpouring of this category, not just in India, across the globe in last three, four
06:06years.
06:06And in fact, in last three years, in South Asia, their outpouring had led to regime change, right?
06:13So given that, I think there is a concern that political parties are not able to reach out or at
06:20least understand their language.
06:22And that's what I think we are going to discuss in this segment.
06:28You know, because I just want for a moment to step back and maybe Manisha Priyam, as someone who also
06:35looks at political sociology, when we call talk of Gen Z, are we talking about unified group?
06:41How is the Gen Z sitting in rural Dhumka in Jarkhand, similar to a Gen Z sitting in Mumbai, where
06:49I am at the moment, or dare I say in any big city?
06:52So are we making the mistake in conflating them all as one group?
06:56Rahul says they are all digitally connected.
06:58But I am not sure. Do you believe that they are unified monolith?
07:02Or we need to actually look at a wider group, which is generally those who feel they are left out
07:08of the system?
07:09Is it about Gen Z? Or is it about the anger and alienation of those who have been left out,
07:15are not getting the benefits of any development?
07:22So, the important part is that the first part of your formulation is indeed correct.
07:27They are very, very regionally varied.
07:30And remember, education is a state subject.
07:33Also, state level job recruitment scams had been happening for a long time.
07:38But something would happen in Rajasthan, it wouldn't become national news.
07:42Something, this JPSC scam that you are seeing is a long old thing.
07:46So, JPSC failures have led to long backlogs in lack of teacher recruitments in that state.
07:53So, things were snowballing and simmering at state level arenas.
07:57What has happened now is the classic trigger of the 1857 revolt.
08:02The greater the centralization, it's not just social media penetration.
08:06I think the CVSC exam failures, you know, that led to even ordinary school boys who were disconnected with the
08:15political process.
08:16And those preparing for NEET and IIT, Rajdeep, you are one of those parents.
08:21You know that for two years, those children do not even talk to anyone, they just prepare.
08:26In Patna, for example, there are gullies.
08:29The Musalla Purhat, for example, where nobody, no young boy will even talk to you.
08:33They are in the tayari mode.
08:35So, the tayari mode came to an inflection point because of large-scale failures and repetitive failures of the NTA
08:44and the CBSC failure.
08:46So, many state-level issues that had been simmering for a while but had not been paid much attention to
08:52came together.
08:53And that's the time that social media paid the tipping point.
08:56Let me take you back to not Dumka, the city you named, but Gumla, where in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra
09:03Modi, starting his campaign in Gumla in Jharkhand,
09:07had said,
09:11Look at where the whole thing has come to now, that those youth who were invoked to come and join
09:19the mainstream with their pen and wield their intellect,
09:23they are coming back and saying, give us back our right to education.
09:26And in a strange way, it's a reinvocation of what Baba Saheb Ambedkar thought about in the drafting of the
09:33Indian Constitution.
09:34Few of you will know that there were great debates with Baba Saheb led and ensured that given the economic
09:41poverty of India's laboring poor,
09:44it was obligatory on the Indian state to provide compulsory education, at least till classes 8, which is the pre
09:51-school, pre-secondary level, pre-post-school level.
09:56Now, that dream has failed.
09:58So, children have realized that the Constitution, the Baba Saheb Ambedkar, these are their biggest confidante at this point of
10:05time,
10:06rather than political parties that seem to have let them down.
10:11So, in a sense, there is a sense of betrayal.
10:13I mean, this Gen Z, this real or hype, as I'm asking it, Rajat, there seems to be a general
10:18sense of disillusionment.
10:20What is uniting them?
10:21As I said, we can't even categorize them, maybe, on age groups.
10:24You could be 35, a millennial, and be discontent that you're being left behind for whatever reason.
10:30Or you think that the system has let you down.
10:32Do you believe that is what we are seeing?
10:34It's not about an age group, but a mindset.
10:37And the political parties need to pick up and address the mindset before they address necessarily a particular age group.
10:44Those who feel left behind are becoming part of this Gen Z revolt.
10:51So, Rajdeep ji, I think in 2013, 2014, around that time, we saw a similar youthful frustration with how status
11:02quoist governments of that day used to sort of blanket over every issue that concerned the people.
11:08And this is why this mass outpouring of the younger people, college people, that Prime Minister Modi, the then Chief
11:15Minister, tapped into.
11:17Look at the campaigns that the CAG and the bunch of other bodies which were working for Prime Minister then
11:22were working on.
11:23They created communities of 6 lakh students around the country, and that became the bulwark around which the whole campaign
11:31was built.
11:31So, Prime Minister knows that, that it is the youth and the youthful energy, if directed properly, can catapult him
11:38into power and can sustain him in power.
11:40And a disgruntled youth is certainly going to cost him a lot.
11:44And there is this realization.
11:46It took them time to realize that.
11:48But I think the signals of this outlier event, that suddenly one page starts getting 22 million followers, all of
11:56a sudden, just shows that, you know, the tinderbox, it was a perfect tinderbox condition.
12:00All it required was a spark, an inane spark of a remark which was in a bad taste from the
12:06Honourable Chief Justice, but was enough to lit fire to the tinderbox.
12:10And I think after this sudden realization has dawned in, the organizational behemoth of the BJP RSS has not, again,
12:18had an arrogant attitude towards it that this does not matter.
12:21They have doubled down on it.
12:22Now, the real challenge, therefore, is that will this gesture of outreach to this community, is it going to suffice?
12:30Or do you need to create this big wave of economic opportunities, which I fear that India is not in
12:37that sort of preparatory, not correctly prepared to meet the kind of technological challenges and the tsunamis that are going
12:45to come out of it.
12:46My fear is that if you do not address this, and that next big wave of economic progress, those economic
12:52ladders are not there, you will see this disgruntlement spill over.
12:56There might be in certain instances, the beneficiary becomes, the opposition becomes beneficiary of this.
13:02And this is what BJP and the entire ecosystem of the BJP is acutely aware of.
13:07And I think this is where they're working hard.
13:09But I believe the situation is deeper.
13:12And economic opportunities are currently constrained.
13:16And this is where something out of the box in terms of solution has to be proposed to meet this
13:22behemoth of a demand that is there.
13:25So you seem to suggest it's real.
13:27Let me come to the sophology, the number crunches towards this.
13:31Amitabh Tiwari, you've been doing number crunching this year.
13:35Are you seeing a shift in youth voters?
13:38If you look back at 2014, Narendra Modi ji actually scored higher among 18 to 25 than he did even
13:45in the age group over 60.
13:46The young drove a lot of the change at the time.
13:50Now we are seeing, for example, in Tamil Nadu, 60% of the youth voted for Vijay, not the two
13:54Dravidian parties.
13:56And even in Bakipur, there are indications that the young voted disproportionately higher for Prashant Kishore.
14:02Are we seeing a Gen Z vote which is actually translating into a search for change, a mood for change?
14:12Say, I think the Gen Z vote or the youth vote has always been there.
14:16The issue has been that, as you've shown, the youth population, though the population is more, but the voting population
14:23is just 22, 23%.
14:25So the non-youth or non-Zen Z are higher than the youth voters.
14:31So the impact of the youth on results was not being seen.
14:36Even if we take 18 to 40, the population is just 38, 40%.
14:40So 60% is non-youth in that case.
14:43However, as you mentioned, Tamil Nadu election is a classic example where the youth, despite the lower numbers, were able
14:53to impact the result because they went out and influenced other vote plots,
14:59which is their parents, relatives, seniors, etc., and thus created an impact.
15:05Even the 60% number which you are talking about, I have not seen in any state whether this 18
15:11to 24 or 18 to 29 age group is voting 60% in huge numbers for a political party.
15:19I think that's first of a kind.
15:20Secondly, the impact is real because across the country, if you do surveys, in the 18 to 24 age category
15:30or 18 to 29, the discontent is highest because unemployment is the number one issue across states.
15:36So the discontent is against the incumbent government, whichever it is, whether it is Congress, BJP, TMC, etc.
15:42And also the fact that this time the youth were able to impact the results is also a case study
15:50in itself where the political parties now see that the youth, which is lower in number, can impact the results
15:57if their issues are not tackled or if tangible solutions are not provided to the issues raised by youth.
16:04And here the CGP protests were no confidence both against the government as well as the opposition because there is,
16:12because CGP is not a party, it's just a platform, it's a page, it's an Instagram handle, was able to
16:18concentrate or get the support of a massive number of youth because even the opposition perhaps has not been raising
16:25these issues.
16:26And even if they are raising, they are not able to solve those issues in their particular states where they
16:31are ruling and they have not been able to provide tangible results.
16:36And I think one of the main causes of disconnect is that the youth representation in political parties and positions
16:43of power is very poor.
16:45We have just one minister who is below the age of 40. CWC, working committee age is, average age is
16:5568.
16:56Modi cabinet, average age is 61. BJP, parliamentary party, average age is 67 and a half.
17:02So there is a huge disconnect between the youth and the political ecosystem.
17:08You know, let's get that clear, therefore, Sanjay Kumarji, what does your research show, particularly about the Hindi heartland?
17:14Because what we are seeing particularly with both Baakipur and indeed what we are seeing happening across the Hindi heartland
17:21is that this youth bulge, a large number of people are coming from the Hindi heartland where unemployment levels by
17:28all surveys are much higher than other parts.
17:30Is this Gen Z factor much more a sort of Hindi heartland factor or do you believe it's spreading across?
17:38In Tamil Nadu, high growth rates and yet the Gen Z went and voted for a Vijay, voted for change.
17:44Is there a Gen Z factor, real or hype according to you, purely in terms of cephalogy, in terms of
17:50numbers?
17:54So when we use the two words, is it real or hype?
17:58I think at this moment it is real.
18:00But whether this is going to make an impact in the 2029 election, I don't know.
18:06And for that, I would say it is a hype.
18:08But it all would depend upon how things unfold from now till 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
18:14Or for that matter, how things unfold from now till the next round of assembly elections take place in say
18:20Punjab, UP and some other states.
18:23My own sense is that if you look at the previous elections and I am referring to the Lok Sabha
18:29election,
18:29it is only in 2024 we saw a decisive vote for BJP among the young voters.
18:36And I am referring to the voters who are in the age group of 18 to 25 or 26.
18:41The BJP had almost 4% lead if you look at the young voters.
18:48And when I say 4% lead, of all the age group, BJP got 36% vote.
18:54But among the young voters, BJP had got roughly 40% vote.
18:59So it was 4% higher among the young voters.
19:02But if you look at state-wise pattern, the state-wise pattern is not uniform.
19:07Because if you look at, say, Haryana or in Rajasthan, it's not that BJP has an advantage among the young
19:13voters compared to Congress.
19:16So state-wise patterns are very, very different.
19:18You have referred to Tamil Nadu.
19:21You referred the data that overall vote share of TVK was roughly 34-35%.
19:28But if you look at the vote share among the very young voters, 18 to 22, you referred the data
19:3460%.
19:35I think I had access to some data which also shows 65% or slightly more than that.
19:42So what does it indicate?
19:44It is not only, yes, the trigger point is unemployment, the issues regarding the Indian education system,
19:52what was referred earlier by the other speaker, CBSC, NEET, etc.
19:56But it is beyond that.
19:58If that was not the case, how would TVK become such a popular party overnight?
20:03How Aam Admi Party managed to win two successive elections in Delhi, 2015 and 2020?
20:092015, yes, it was an euphoria.
20:11But 2020, they managed to win a very, registered a very big victory in Delhi and also in Punjab.
20:17So the trigger is rotten education system or the problems which Indian youths are facing
20:24with regard to education and job opportunities.
20:27But I think it is slightly beyond that.
20:29They are also looking forward to an alternative, which we saw in the recent Bakipur by elections results as well.
20:42Looking for alternatives and I'll come to what kind of alternatives in a moment,
20:46but let's put the second big question up.
20:48Is this anti-establishment more permanent or momentary?
20:53You know, Rahul Verma, I'm just putting up a graphic of graduates among unemployed youth in a moment.
20:59But, and I want to put it, this is what Azeem Premji University has put out.
21:04These are numbers, is anti-establishment more permanent or momentary.
21:09Just to put out the numbers, you know, we keep talking in every survey about unemployment.
21:14In 1983, age 20 to 29, as per the Azeem Premji University study, 13% were unemployed.
21:21By 2004, it had gone up to 32%.
21:252017, 46%.
21:27It's peaked at 67%.
21:29This is post-COVID in 2023.
21:32Are we seeing, therefore, the demographic dividend gradually turning into a demographic deficit?
21:37And that is why political, that is why a lot of people are turning against the establishment.
21:42Not against a government or an individual.
21:44Not necessarily anti-Modi, anti-BJP or anti-Congress.
21:47This is not left versus right.
21:49This is, as I said at the very outset, people who feel left behind.
21:53I mean, we had anti-establishment mood in the 70s.
21:58The angry young man being replaced now by the angry unemployed youth.
22:03Are you seeing that?
22:04Is that the difference?
22:07So, Razdeep, every generation has its political moment.
22:10And the current, what you are calling Gen Z, this is their political moment to get mature.
22:17And this happens...
22:18Is it permanent or momentary?
22:20We will find out.
22:22There is always, like, and there is a global connection to it.
22:25Think about what I just, like, said a few minutes back.
22:29This Gen Z outpouring has not just happened in India.
22:32It happened in multiple countries.
22:34Between 2011 and 2013, when you again saw mobilisation and protest, India against corruption in India, you had Arab strength.
22:44Think of the 90s movement, when perhaps that was a movement for Sanjay Jis and your generation.
22:50That was your political movement.
22:522011-12 was our political movement.
22:54There was another time, 1970s, which you talk about angry young men.
22:59That was a political time for another generation.
23:02So, every 15 to 20 years, it's cyclical.
23:05You will see that there is going to be inbuilt frustrations against the system that will come out.
23:13Now, it depends on existing political players, how they navigate it, right?
23:20If you think of the 70s, that led to a very different kind of change.
23:23If you think about 2011, it led to a very different kind of change.
23:27What will happen to the 2026 moment depends on what BJP is going to learn from this moment and what
23:36opposition is going to learn from this moment.
23:38My second point, and this connects to what Rajat was saying.
23:43See, what has happened in India, that in 10 to 12 years, we have doubled the number of graduates.
23:51We had 30 million graduates in 2013-14, and now in 2025, we have 60 million graduates.
23:59Economy is only growing 6, 6.5%.
24:02And at that level of economic growth, you will not be able to absorb graduates in the economy.
24:09And so, my generation had perhaps greater upward mobility than my parents' generation.
24:15But the upcoming generation is not able to see a certain future.
24:20And that's where political parties have to have a conversation with them, figure out what their aspirations are, and then
24:27mobilize them.
24:28Will this, and as Sanjaji was pointing out, will this have an electoral impact in 2029, will depend on what
24:37political parties do at this moment of time.
24:39What kind of future they are going to present to this younger generation so that they can bring them towards
24:47them.
24:49No, but it comes back, Rajat, to what, you know, Narendra Modi offered a dream in 2014.
24:54We are now in 2026, 12 years on.
24:58Vixit Bharat, Stand Up India, Start Up India, lots of dreams were offered.
25:02What happens when the dream turns into disillusionment for a section?
25:06The Congress suffered when they were in power because many thought that the Congress would, in its own way, under
25:12Manmohan Singh,
25:12ensure that corruption was rooted out.
25:14What happened? Corruption grew.
25:15Mr. Modi made a lot of promises.
25:18Is this a structural problem or a problem of constantly rising expectations and aspirations that simply can't be met by
25:26the government?
25:27And that's fueling a sense that the system no longer has space for many people and their aspirations.
25:33A few people are having a great time and their aspirations are vaulting.
25:38A lot of people are getting left behind.
25:41So, Rajdeep, our $300 billion source of exports, which is the IT industry, is gaping at a huge hole.
25:50Right now, the big leagues in forces at CL and a bunch of these have stopped recruiting product companies in
25:57IT sector,
25:57which were these were the principal ladders of economic growth that were available to our generation.
26:03Those have suddenly been pulled away.
26:05What Prime Minister Modi is doing is that he has understood that there are structural shifts in the economy and
26:10you cannot rely on what was available, say, 10, 15 years any longer.
26:14And this is where, you know, there are a bunch of focus on deep tech.
26:18This is the RDI fund, which has been brought into place to mobilize somewhere around 5 lakh crores to create
26:23next wave of opportunities.
26:25You look at globally also, there are no more IT jobs.
26:28Google is reducing, Microsoft is reducing its workforce.
26:31Where are those aspirational jobs anymore?
26:33Today, there are new age companies.
26:35There are a bunch of these AI companies.
26:36Somehow, our IT industries and our economic giants were not able to change themselves and change their business models in
26:44time.
26:45And this is the reason there are not enough opportunity out there.
26:48What can a government do?
26:49Government can only create facilitating environment, keep the dialogue going with the industrialists, keep pushing them to invest more in
26:57our story,
26:59you know, commit them publicly to come out and spend in R&D.
27:02And this is all what Prime Minister has been doing.
27:04But this metamorphosis takes time.
27:06But it's not, you know, but look at rising inequality.
27:09Sorry to stop you, but, you know, while again intent, but what's the reality?
27:14Inequalities are rising.
27:15I mean, the truth is every report, and I, you know, it's not just one report.
27:19A series of reports are showing rising inequalities.
27:21How are you going to address that?
27:23That's structural.
27:24So, I mean, is the government facing this anti-establishment mood because it slipped out of their hand?
27:30See, this is where, you know, the entire polity has to readjust to these changes.
27:35Does it require more, a different kind of a progressive taxation?
27:39What do you do about this problem that is at hand?
27:41And I believe he acutely understands that.
27:43One thing that the BJP is trying to do, they are not stuck in time.
27:47Unlike what the previous regimes like that of UPA was, when people were shouting and screaming at the top of
27:52their voices that they demanded a change, the government was not responding.
27:57Here, it took them barely an instance.
27:59Today, an MEA is coming on Snapchat.
28:02You have all of these communications.
28:04The RSS, Sarsan Chalagji, has come out and addressed the youth.
28:07There is an attempt.
28:08I don't see that this is entirety of the solution.
28:11This is part A of the solution.
28:13When you start some dialogue, understand, try to address these insecurities that they're telling them, telling this younger generation of
28:20ours that we are attempting newer opportunities.
28:23Give us time and we are pushing the pedal forward in those directions.
28:27And I believe this is, again, time will tell us how permanent this is and how this angst can be
28:32handled.
28:33I mean, what if in UP election, BJP again wins?
28:36What happens to this Gen Z movement, right?
28:38So, you know, we'll be sitting and analysing UP elections and then we'll be saying that, see, this was just
28:43momentary.
28:44But I still believe Prime Minister of all people is acutely aware that the economic ladders are thinning and therefore
28:50he is thinking constantly on increasing the size of the pie.
28:55You know, you're saying he is acutely aware of it.
28:58The question is, does he have, you know, does any government have a solution?
29:02Because what we are seeing, Manisha Priyam, is not just rising inequalities.
29:06There will be those who will say also we are seeing creeping authoritarianism.
29:10So there is less space.
29:11There was less space, arguably, in the last 10 years for a lot of people to express themselves.
29:17Suddenly, in a way, there's freedom from fear.
29:20People feel that, look, I can at least speak up.
29:22And that's, in a way, similar to what we saw when people spoke up in the 70s.
29:27And whenever there's been a sense that you've got dominance of one leader or one party,
29:31are we seeing both rising inequalities and rising authoritarianism and therefore like a volcano suddenly erupting,
29:39there's lava now starting to come up, which was kept through force of fear under, in a way, under the
29:47volcano.
29:48The dormant volcano is now exploding.
29:50Or am I exaggerating it?
29:55So, rising inequality, of course, there are economic measures and the Gini coefficient.
30:00But the thing is that the Instagram was promoting the rich and the wealthy and their lives.
30:06Suddenly, you see that people understood in the gully that there was someone or just a few with so much.
30:13But the second part is that I would like to respond to my esteemed colleague who just spoke on the
30:18panel
30:19that RSS and something, Sanchalak, Sir Sangchalak or whatever, I don't know.
30:24I'm very sorry, I don't know the terminology very well.
30:27Bhagwadji.
30:28Bhagwadji had an outreach to Gen Z.
30:31Once, yeah, yeah, no, but I am not concerned.
30:35This, this Sangch is not the government of India, right?
30:38We are wanting to talk about the government of India.
30:41Now, whether the SPIC-MAK as a cultural organization feels very bad about Gen Z being left out
30:46and wants to have music programs, I think it's a very good idea, but it doesn't address the issue.
30:52What is the issue at hand?
30:54Election after election, the crawlers, the parents of the cockroaches, the mothers especially,
30:59are coming up and taking it 10,000, 15,000 rupee dolls.
31:04Go back and ask the ladies.
31:06They will tell you,
31:10Go back to the gullies where I go.
31:12Look at the things I write in important journals.
31:16Our book, you know, Youth Futures and Precarious Urbanism,
31:19has just come out of three years of fieldwork all over the country,
31:23ethnographic field sites.
31:24They all want secure government jobs.
31:26You know, the Agnivir, for example, was a very easy way for not very academically intensive,
31:33but lot of physical training and agrarian background children could get into it.
31:38You casualize that.
31:39Anybody tried to have a dialogue.
31:41Now, I don't know whether that dialogue was to be had with Mr. Honorable,
31:46very respectable, Sir Sangchalak or whoever.
31:49I don't know whether he had the solution.
31:51The solution needed to come from the government.
31:52The need in the northern parts of India was most acute for normal, average, low-paying government jobs.
32:00And that is and continues to be the mandate of the government to provide.
32:04This comes from teaching jobs.
32:06This comes from railway jobs.
32:08This comes from police bharati.
32:10The state at this point cannot withdraw.
32:12It cannot say that I will give you the ration.
32:14I am in Patna field work.
32:16There are many people who tell me that we have received 5 kilos of ration, it was necessary.
32:20But in the vote, we have done this.
32:24So, there is also a person who has their own authority, but they have their own authority.
32:28Gen Z has come forward.
32:30Look at what the children in the coaching centers in Musallahpur are eating.
32:34They try and tell me that we try and keep a daily meal to not more than rupees 10.
32:40If possible, try and do it in rupees 8.
32:43Three meals for a young person, whereas we are promoting whey proteins and God knows what, bodybuilding and this and
32:50that.
32:51You know, so it is stark inequality, which is now being lived on the bodies of our young.
32:57Let's stop the politicking and say, we need to care for our young people.
33:02So, Panisha Priyam, is the anti-establishment mood being fed by rising inequalities because they have existed before?
33:13I mean, is it being fed by rising inequalities or by creeping authoritarianism?
33:18Nobody is listening to us.
33:20What is it?
33:21Is it that the government is not listening to us?
33:24So, the withdrawal of the welfare state for poor people, just handouts at time of election, is what has led
33:34to all this.
33:35There is rising inequality.
33:37And if there had been voice, then people would have heard that the Agni Veer was not a good scheme,
33:42for example.
33:43Not having permanent school teachers was not a good scheme.
33:47Para-teachers at 1,000, 10,000, 6,000 rupees is not a good scheme.
33:52The state needs to keep people in perpetual employment for a while, not on doles, it's not working.
34:00And cultural organizations are not a solution.
34:02Those are the strong words, but I'm very happy that these dialogues are happening culturally.
34:08Okay, you know, Amitabh Tiwari, I heard Rahul Verma saying, you're seeing it across South Asia, except Pakistan, where we
34:15haven't seen the young come out on the street.
34:16We saw it in Bangladesh, we saw it in Sri Lanka.
34:19But can we liken what happened in Jantar Mantar to any of that, or what is happening in Jarkhand?
34:23Do you really believe that India, from your studies, is showing something similar to what happened?
34:30In Bangladesh, it was clear.
34:31It was against the authoritarian rule in a way that the way Sheikh Hasina was accused of rigging elections.
34:37In Sri Lanka, there was an economic crisis that led to it.
34:40Here, are you seeing anything similar?
34:42Surely, a neat paper leak is not going to lead to, in a 1.5 billion strong country, the youth
34:48revolting in anti-establishment manner.
34:50It's not even like anti-emergency, where there was a clear target.
34:56So, I think there are two aspects to it.
34:58One is that the student organizations, or the CJP, are entering into an agreement with the government.
35:05And it took just, I think, three meetings for them to forge into an agreement with the government.
35:11It shows that the youth of this country are different from the youth of Nepal or Bangladesh, for example.
35:18It's that they are still willing to operate within the confines of our constitution.
35:24So, if the constitutional authorities are giving them promises that they will look into the problems and offer solutions,
35:33I think still the youth are operating within the constitutional governments.
35:38Secondly, is that these protests are sending a message.
35:42It's a message, it's an initial message, that none of the political parties, whether be it the opposition or the
35:50parties in power,
35:51are talking about their issues, because we are also, election after selection, not necessarily talking about the real issues,
35:59but rather rhetorical issues.
36:01It also shows frustration of the youth, because in 2014, they were...
36:06No, but would they vote on education?
36:08No, no, no, no, one minute.
36:09Amitabh Tiwari, tell me, for example, if a political party made education its central agenda,
36:15you believe they would win an election in India?
36:17Would that become an issue?
36:18That I'm going to come, Arvind Kejriwal attempted it to some extent, to his credit, 12 years ago.
36:23I'm going to change the school system.
36:25Do you believe that is a potential election vote card?
36:30See, potential election vote card is creation of jobs.
36:34Okay, and of course, education is linked to it, because education is the foundation which will help you get jobs.
36:41Now, the youth have sent a message, as Sanjay Jai has said, they will wait and see how the political
36:46parties,
36:47which is the existing political parties, are reacting to their demands,
36:52and whether they take tangible solutions, or they take concrete steps or not.
36:56If not, if not, then what is the option they have?
37:00They will look for new alternatives.
37:02See, when Prime Minister Modi came to power, I think one of the two key promises were,
37:086% budgetary spent on education, it is still at 2-2.5%, if I'm not wrong,
37:14and the fact that the manufacturing share of the GDP by, because manufacturing creates jobs.
37:21Now, we are seeing in the services sector that cost alone cannot be the differentiator,
37:26and that is what has led to this issue, that the service sector is not in a position to create
37:31more jobs,
37:32and manufacturing as percentage of GDP has actually fallen from what it used to be.
37:37Private sector as percentage of capital formation, again, there is no significant private sector investments.
37:44So, all of these are structural issues, which the youth feels that they have seen a hope in Prime Minister
37:49Modi in 2014,
37:51but maybe 10 years, 12 years down the line, they do not see significant improvements or actions sticking on these
37:57fronts,
37:58and that's why a message is being sent to both the opposition and the ruling dispensation.
38:05You know, because let's be honest, there's an entire generation which has only seen Prime Minister Modi.
38:10Over the last 12 years, they were, what, 8 years old when he took over, they are now 20.
38:14So, they've only seen that.
38:15Which brings me to my next question.
38:17Are new faces now more attractive than the older guard for a voter?
38:22I want you to take that, Sanjay Kumar.
38:25Is it that new faces are more attractive to the voter?
38:30Before I do it, come to you, just listen into what Prashant Kishore said.
38:34Because in a way, Prashant Kishore has positioned himself as a new,
38:40someone addressing the constituency who is tired of the old faces.
38:46This is what he told our correspondent Rohit Singh in an interview.
39:03Prashant Kishore, Prashant Kishore.
39:28Prashant Kishore.
39:56You know, we saw it in Bakipore in a by-election, where Prashant Kishore won.
40:01Do you believe that even the traditional voters are looking at new faces, their Sanjay Kumar?
40:08People want novelty.
40:09They want someone who is going to, they believe, change the rules.
40:13You can't replace a Nitish Kumar with a Samrat Chaudhary and expect the new voters to embrace a Samrat Chaudhary.
40:25Now, if we do an analysis of Bakipore by-election and the verdict of Tamil Nadu Assembly election,
40:31you will see a stark difference between how the young voters have voted and how the elderlies have voted.
40:36I don't think that if we are talking about the new faces, more than the new faces,
40:41what the young people are looking forward is new promises and new promises which they think the person or the
40:48new party would be able to deliver.
40:50But that's not the voters who belong to the elderly age group.
40:55I am saying, referring to, say, 50 plus or more than that.
40:58I don't think they share the same kind of an aspiration.
41:02They would like to go along with established party.
41:05I am not saying every one of them.
41:07But disproportionately, if we look at the elderly ones, they would still go along with the traditional party.
41:12And I am saying, if we do age-wise analysis of how people have voted in Bakipore, we can see
41:18a stark difference between them.
41:19But the young ones are definitely looking at not the new faces, but new promises and new aspirations.
41:28Now, what do you mean by new promises, new aspirations?
41:30Take Tamil Nadu, which is the most graphic example.
41:32Bakipur is just a by-election.
41:34But Tamil Nadu, what Vijay did, I mean, he's a superstar.
41:37Do you believe Tamil Nadu is sui generis?
41:39Tomorrow, let's say in some other state, someone who represented newness, novelty, a startup comes up.
41:45Will it be easy, according to you, for a startup to win because of this search for a new face?
41:55No, I don't think that TBK managed to win election or Vijay managed to perform the way he has been
42:03able to perform because only because his face was recognizable.
42:07He was a star.
42:08I think his promises, the promise like he wanted to move away from, you know, the kind of politics which
42:15DMK and AIDMK have been doing.
42:17He raised the issues of corruption.
42:19Corruption is an issue.
42:20At times, it makes an electoral impact.
42:23At times, it doesn't make an electoral impact.
42:25But I think it was more than the face that the promises he was making, yes, he's being a young,
42:31his recognized face, face being recognized, added value to that.
42:36But not only because he was a recognized face, he was able to do what he did in Tamil Nadu
42:422026 assembly elections.
42:46You know, Rahul Verma, are we saying therefore, let's say across the world, since you're using global examples, we are
42:52also seeing a lot of 40 plus leaders emerging across the world who the young can identify with.
42:58I mean, the point is we've got a parliament where majority of the people are over the age of 60
43:03in a country where the majority are under 35.
43:06I mean, is there a search for a young face?
43:10People are looking for youthful faces who represent a certain newness.
43:15Rajdeep, let me make three points.
43:20First, when I said every generation has a political moment, in that political moment, new leaders also come.
43:2875 to 77 gave you Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar.
43:34The 90 to 92 moment gave you Narendra Modi, Pramod Mahajan, those kind of leaders.
43:402011 to 14 gave you Arvind Kejriwal and YSRCP.
43:48Like political moments produce leaders.
43:51And this 2026 or 24 to 26 moment is going to produce new leader.
43:58You are going to get a Vijay, you are going to get a Prashant Kishore.
44:00So every generation, every political moment, when it comes after 15 to 20 years, pushes new leadership in politics.
44:09Now, second point, which is to do with in every democracy, there is a gap between like leadership age and
44:17the age of median voter.
44:20In India, unfortunately, that gap is very, very large.
44:23In fact, like people start, most people actually start politics in their 40s, not in their 30s.
44:30If you take any leader or any candidate who's like who wins election and is below 30 actually comes from
44:37political family.
44:38So if you are not from a political family, you don't even get a chance, serious chance to contest election
44:43in your 30s.
44:45And that's why like in most sort of like developing countries like India, politicians start their career at 40, 45.
44:52And then they reach somewhere to be known as like in 60s.
44:56Third, where I want to make a distinction between promise and what politicians do.
45:02Like politicians, so Modi gave a prop like in 2014, he gave a hope.
45:09Vijay basically gave a hope.
45:11It's not a set of, I'm going to do X, Y, Z, right?
45:15Acche din aayenge is a hope for a better tomorrow.
45:19Vijay basically saying we have seen two parties for 50 years.
45:24Now we need to do something else.
45:26Whether CJP or leadership associated with it succeeds or some other political entrepreneur is going to take advantage of this
45:34moment,
45:35depends entirely on how politics is going to flow.
45:3920, like Arvind Kejri Vahar...
45:42Yeah, but there is a great...
45:43No, no, but...
45:45No, but as you rightly said, there's a huge barrier to a startup.
45:48It's not easy for a startup to scale up as even Ahmad B. Party has found out.
45:53Money is a huge factor.
45:54You need resources.
45:56But do you believe Vijay was, you know, is an exception in that case.
45:59Do you believe that if I'm a new 40-year-old and I pitch myself for a political career, I'm
46:06not talking about me, I'm 61.
46:08But suppose I was 40 and I said, look, I'm the new kid on the block.
46:12I want to contest a Goa election.
46:14Small state.
46:15We are tired of the same politicians in Goa, the defection.
46:18I'm offering newness.
46:19Is newness enough or do you need more than just newness?
46:23It's not.
46:24In 75 years of our democracy, we only have four cases of political startups succeeding in their first election.
46:32It was NPR.
46:34It was AGP in Assam in 1984.
46:38It was Ahmad B. Party in 2013.
46:41And it's Vijay in 2026.
46:43So these are basically unique examples.
46:46The first three actually came because of political movement.
46:50So, yes, this movement creates an opportunity for CJP.
46:54But CJP has three options.
46:56Whether they join existing political party, whether they create their own movement,
47:02or they basically slowly just remain an interest group and fizzle out.
47:08All those three possibilities are equal at the moment because it largely depends.
47:13And I want to stress this point.
47:15It largely depends on how BJP is going to play its card.
47:20Because as incumbent, they have more cards to play.
47:23If they make a mistake, they create opportunity for others.
47:26If they don't, then politics will go as usual.
47:32You know, because it's interesting that Rahul Gandhi is positioning himself also in a way as this anti-establishment challenger
47:38doing Chhatro Ki Goonj.
47:40So in 2014, Rahul Gandhi was establishment and Mr. Modi was anti-establishment.
47:45Now in 2026, Rahul Gandhi is projecting himself as anti-establishment and Mr. Modi as establishment.
47:51That's one of the many changes that's taken place.
47:53But with five or six minutes left, I've got one final trick question.
47:57Is Insta the new medium for narrative battles?
48:01We are now seeing the Prime Minister doing vertical videos.
48:04We are seeing Rahul Gandhi saying, ask me anything.
48:07Is Insta, and I want to put up some numbers to tell you why Insta matters or why social media
48:12in general matters.
48:13Take a look of what the Insta numbers or the numbers when it comes to social media in this country.
48:22Now, when it comes to WhatsApp for example, how many WhatsApp users are there in this country?
48:27It's a huge number.
48:29It's over 80 crore people are into WhatsApp, 85.
48:33Facebook is 58.2 crores.
48:36YouTube 49.1.
48:38Instagram 39.3, rising all the time.
48:41Twitter actually, where a lot of energy is spent, is just 2.3 crores.
48:46Now, that's the interesting part, Rajat Sethi, because in 2019, many believe this was WhatsApp election.
48:532014 was the TV election, Chai Pe Charcha, Create Real Events.
48:572019, WhatsApp.
48:592024, YouTube.
49:00Has Instagram taken over or is this a panic reaction?
49:04That politicians have sensed what's happening with Gen Z, so they panicked and said, oh, let's get on to Instagram.
49:09Has Mr. Modi panicked?
49:13Has Rahul Gandhi...
49:13Because Rahul Gandhi, in a strange way, for once, seems to be a step ahead of Mr. Modi on social
49:19media.
49:20For once.
49:23Well, so you speak to the Gen Zers on Insta, and they hate this prospect that political parties are trying
49:29to enter into their space, which they consider that this is our space where none of our parents, none of
49:35our relatives are going to hound us and constantly stalk us.
49:38So much to their anger and frustration, they will see all politicians suddenly dawning upon their reels and everything very
49:45soon.
49:47See, it certainly has been a platform which has espoused the lingo, the vocabulary of this generation.
49:54Therefore, it is in sync.
49:56But this too will be disrupted.
49:58There are other ways in which people are constantly exploring new, and it's just a matter of imagination.
50:04But yes, right now, it is the space.
50:07Snapchat and Instagram are both the platforms where I believe government, with all its instruments and everything, is saying that
50:14this is the place where we have to be.
50:15And I believe they are cultivating a new stream of social media strategy and influencers onto these new platforms.
50:24But it needs to be seen.
50:25See, it's just a starting point.
50:28And you have to ensure that all your message has to be so strong and so powerful that it cuts
50:35across.
50:35My problem, fundamentally, what I think is, over generations, we have seen mean reversion.
50:40Each time a leader or a generation tries to look for hope from these younger faces, there is mean reversion.
50:47You come back to where things started.
50:49Look at what movement that Aam Admi Party, for instance, started.
50:52We were all part of those movements.
50:54Where did it tend to?
50:55Nowhere.
50:55My problem is that even this movement will create a lot of anxiety, a lot of issues coming to the
51:01foray, but it will not lead anywhere.
51:03We need people, we need political parties who are genuine about these problems and who can find solutions one way
51:10or the other.
51:11Or by sheer luck, something has to happen in this country.
51:15Okay.
51:16Manisha Priyam, I'm presuming you're not on Insta.
51:19Are you on Insta?
51:20Do you know what clock it means?
51:22I learned today what clock it means for this generation.
51:25It means killed it.
51:26Yeah.
51:26You slayed it.
51:27Are you on Insta, by the way?
51:28You're not doing vertical videos?
51:34I'm, I'm, see, this one, you don't even know that.
51:37I saw your Insta video and I know a lot more than you do.
51:41But the thing is, I've been asked to keep quiet.
51:43What does this mean?
51:44I silently look at it and the thing is, now you have to find out, this means I'm shy.
51:52So this is this new generation that they may have clocked it.
51:55They are not as vocal as we were.
51:57We were more ideological, but they are more grounded in constitutional values.
52:02They do not think that our country did not have foundations or did not have a history.
52:07They want to own it up.
52:09They want to own it up, but in their way.
52:12And nation is theirs.
52:13India is theirs.
52:16Okay.
52:16I just have 30 seconds each.
52:18Amitabh Tiwari, we wouldn't have done this discussion even three weeks ago.
52:21And that shows how dynamic Indian politics is.
52:24Three weeks ago, Amitabh Tiwari, it appeared that the BJP was on a roll.
52:28Shiv Sena broken, TMC broken, Aam Atmi Party broken.
52:32Suddenly, in three weeks, we are talking about Gen Z, government on the back foot.
52:37I come back to it.
52:38Are we exaggerating the impact of the events of the last three weeks or has something substantially changed?
52:44A quick answer.
52:47No, see, clearly, I mean, electoral impact, it is very, very difficult to say what will be the impact in
52:52the upcoming state elections
52:53and even in the 2029 looks of elections when it is head.
52:57But I think this time, clearly, the message, the youth has sent a message that our issues need to be
53:02talked about.
53:03Our issues need to be solved.
53:05Tangible solutions have to be given.
53:07And in terms of representation, we need higher representation across political parties.
53:13If that is not done, of course…
53:15And does communication matter?
53:17Of course.
53:18And how important is communication?
53:20How important is communication?
53:22Vijay, for example, focused on Insta and won the election.
53:25Yeah, so 2014 is the first Twitter-Facebook election.
53:31Rahul Gandhi was not even on Twitter and Facebook in 2014.
53:35He joined later.
53:362019, WhatsApp.
53:372024 is the first YouTube election.
53:40Because Congress, despite not having a stronger organization, was able to convey the message of Samhidhan Khatriya.
53:48And in 2026, Tamil Nadu is the first Insta election.
53:53See, there is already a tectonic shift in political communication.
53:57From now on, this one-way communication, one-way traffic, I think Prime Minister himself has realized.
54:03From now on, leader who listens perhaps will thrive, I think.
54:07And that's how Prime Minister Modi himself has realized this and has been on Insta.
54:12But just being there will not work.
54:14We need to listen to the youth.
54:16That's also a strong message which they have sent.
54:20Okay.
54:20Just 30 seconds.
54:21Sanjay Kumar, I'm not sure you're on Insta.
54:24And I don't know whether you knew what clock it meant.
54:27But I will ask you, Sanjay Kumar-ji, do you believe that we are seeing that change is in the
54:32air?
54:34Well, as some analysts have already started suggesting, or it's premature?
54:38It's a particular moment that we've had.
54:40But BJP's election machine, the Prime Minister himself, still remain Neta number one?
54:46Or do you believe Rahul Gandhi is catching up?
54:51No, certainly Rahul Gandhi is catching up.
54:53There is no doubt about that.
54:54But how fast or how slow, that's the big question.
54:57I think the change is with regard to the perception, the change is with regard to, you know, like, how
55:02things seems to be, like, heading at the moment.
55:08But in terms of electoral impact, I think we are making, we are making, we are in a hurry to
55:14start assessing the electoral impact of this Genji movement.
55:18In terms of perception, in terms of narrative, yes, there is certainly seems to be change.
55:23Right.
55:25Okay, I'm going to leave it there.
55:26As I keep saying, Harold Wilson, the British Prime Minister, once said, a week is a long time in politics.
55:31In India, as we've seen, a month can be an eternity.
55:35We've suddenly seen a tectonic change, at least in terms of perception and narratives.
55:40How that will translate into electoral behavior, that we will not predict.
55:44And that is always hazardous business in India.
55:46But I appreciate all my guests joining us on our special roundtable.
55:50Thank you all very much.
55:51Good to have such fine voices join us.
55:53To you, the viewer, I don't know whether you're Gen Z, but remember, this means clock it, which remember, which
56:01also means, you killed it.
56:02I hope we killed it today.
56:04Thanks for watching.
56:05Stay well, stay safe.
56:07Jai Hind Namaskar.
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