00:00ISM services index rises to 54.1 from 54.
00:04So not a huge change.
00:06Service industries are apparently hanging in there.
00:0954.5 was the forecast, so it's not as good as anticipated.
00:13Prices paid, that's the bad news, up to 70.3 from 67.7.
00:19And the new orders index is a little higher, 57.2 from 55.1.
00:24But employment, 47.4 from 51.2.
00:28So employment is weaker, and we saw a rise in employment for the manufacturing PMI on Monday.
00:34So manufacturing went up more, and the employment index went up more,
00:40and the prices index fell a little bit in manufacturing.
00:43So the manufacturing and service industries have sort of flipped in terms of who's got the momentum.
00:48Did we see that reflected in ADP, too?
00:50Because I was struck this morning, leisure hospitality sector shed 11,000 jobs in July.
00:55I wonder if there's something going on there, and maybe if it's World Cup-related, over-hiring, you let people
01:00go sort of thing?
01:01It probably is, because you had a huge hiring earlier in the summer, even earlier than economists anticipated.
01:08And when you look at the rest of what ADP was telling us, manufacturing added only 2,000 jobs, 1
01:13,000 in construction.
01:16So not a lot of jobs in manufacturing or services other than health care, which is always the big gainer.
01:23Right. Mike, just the other piece of data we also got this morning, I know you spoke about it on
01:27surveillance, was the quarterly refunding announcement.
01:30It seemed like no surprises in there, just continuing to issue on the front end of the curve in T
01:35-bills, T-bill and chill.
01:36And that's what's keeping people on edge, because they repeated again what they have been saying for many quarters now,
01:42is that we think the auction sizes are adequate.
01:45But we all know the debt is going up and up and up, and they're probably going to have to
01:50increase auction sizes at some point.
01:52And then what tenor do you start selling more of?
01:56And they're not telling us at this point.
01:59No forward guidance beyond it isn't changing yet.
02:02Right.
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