00:00How can you be good and bad news at the same time?
00:03You have existing home sales coming in ahead of forecasts, up by 4,060,000 on an annual basis,
00:10but that's down because last month was revised higher to 4,130,000.
00:16So good news and bad news at the same time.
00:18It's a 1.7% decline month over month from June to July.
00:23Now, why is that?
00:24Well, of course, it's the same old problem, and this is where we link back to the Fed and CPI.
00:29It's mortgage rates.
00:30Mortgage rates are continuing to rise after having fallen before the war started,
00:35but as the market rates go up, mortgage rates go up, and that is, again, crimping demand for housing.
00:43Nobody wants to get out of their old cheap mortgage.
00:46So tomorrow, one of the things we'll be watching, and this is where I, you know, promo our CPI coverage
00:52in the CPI, is housing,
00:54and it's one of the areas that has actually been going down in the amount of increase in prices.
01:02That's the way to put it, I guess, for inflation.
01:04From April, we saw fairly high numbers, and then all the way to June, down to one-tenth of a
01:12percent for rent
01:12and two-tenths for owner's equivalent rent, which is basically the price of houses.
01:16And so we're anticipating we're going to get something similar to that this time.
01:21And some people will say, well, okay, let's cut rates and bring mortgage rates down.
01:27But that's up to the Fed.
01:28Some people would say that.
01:29Who might they be?
01:30It's a long journey from this today to the September meeting.
01:33You've got to go through Jackson Hole.
01:34We've got the data released tomorrow, another round of inflation data before the September decision.
01:39Your assessment just of the degree of importance that these data have tomorrow,
01:42kind of in the scheme of things, given what we saw with the jobs report last week?
01:45It's sort of like the second game in a three-game set of whatever sport you want to play.
01:50It's not decisive, but it is going to be something that people take account of.
01:54We do have, as you mentioned, another CPI, another PPI, another PCE before that September 16th meeting.
02:00So what they'll be looking for is the trend.
02:03And if the trend is down again this month for July, then that's some encouraging news.
02:09And if it continues into August, then that will definitely have an impact on Wall Street's thinking about what the
02:14Fed will do.
02:15So what we're looking for is the trend.
02:15So what we're looking for is the trend.
02:15So what we're looking for is the trend.
02:15So what we're looking for is the trend.
02:15So what we're looking for is the trend.
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