00:00Mike, what do you see? Well, we see a little bit of additional confidence from the time the Michigan
00:05interim survey came out in the middle of the month. We're at 55.2 now from 54.4,
00:11probably reflecting a little bit of the gas price decline, which is now going back up again.
00:17Now, the current conditions index is 54.8. That's a tick down from 54.9 and statistically
00:24irrelevant, we'll call it. Expectations do rise to 55.4 from 54.0. So the increase in the overall
00:32sentiment number driven by what people think is going to happen, and they're more optimistic about
00:36that. Now, the one-year inflation number is unchanged at 4.2 percent. The five to 10-year
00:43unchanged at 3.3 percent. So not a whole lot of change in the way people are looking at things.
00:50Michael Boo from Consumer Confidence, the confidence of Fed policymakers in the central
00:53banks' path forward here. And we heard from those three dissenters over the course of the morning,
00:57Neil Kashkari, among them, talking about wanting to see more incrementalism here in the fight
01:02against high inflation. Well, now we have the third, Lori Logan of Dallas. She doesn't talk about
01:06incrementalism, but she does talk about modest action on rates, saying inflation will not reach
01:12the 2 percent target without further tightening. Labor consumption and financial market conditions
01:17indicate that monetary policy is not restraining the economy without any policy restraint.
01:23Inflation will likely to continue to trend above target until there's an unanticipated shock.
01:29The FOMC cannot count on unanticipated shocks to achieve its goals and could always adjust policy
01:34if unanticipated shocks occur. Modest action in the near term would reduce the likelihood
01:40of needing to take sharper action later. Now, that last part is essentially what the message from
01:46Neil Kashkari and Beth Hammack was, is we raise rates a little bit now to counter the long-term inflation.
01:53And if for some reason we need to lower them, we can do that.
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