00:00I don't see ISM numbers yet.
00:02I see them.
00:03And I will tell you what they are.
00:05Manufacturing PMI comes in at $52.7 for the month of March.
00:10That is up from $52.4 in February.
00:14The one everybody's been waiting for, prices paid, is at $78.3, up from $70.5.
00:21That's the highest since 2022.
00:25So a huge jump in the prices paid numbers.
00:29The employment number comes in at $48.7, still negative.
00:35$48.8 is what it was the month before.
00:39New orders $53.5 down from $55.8.
00:43Production $55.1, that is also down from $55.3.
00:49The other thing that I wanted to take a quick look at here is what the comments are that we're
00:55getting from people.
00:56And people are mentioning tariffs.
01:00Geopolitical issues and Iran are already waning sentiment.
01:05That's an interesting way to put it.
01:06People are feeling bad about the war.
01:09And current Middle East unrest is already starting to impact business operations by increasing lead times, costs, container delays, and
01:17the like.
01:17So this report does certainly reflect a lot of what's going on in the Middle East right now.
01:25It's one of the more contemporaneous numbers that we have.
01:28The payroll number kind of matches up with the 11,000 jobs lost in the ADP survey this morning for
01:34manufacturing.
01:35So overall, not particularly good news.
01:38It does show a bit of a decline in business and certainly a big rise in prices paid.
01:44And two-year yields off the back of that are the highs of the morning at 380.
01:48They're up about one and a half basis points.
01:50But the original rise for yields, at least on the front end, Mike, came around 830 when we got the
01:55retail sales dump number.
01:57Of course, that was in February.
01:58It's somewhat backwards looking, but also stronger ADP.
02:02Very backwards looking.
02:04ADP figures, too.
02:06Stronger than expected, also.
02:07I mean, regardless of what happens with this energy market and higher energy prices, it still feels like data that's
02:12coming in that's putting a Fed on pause.
02:15Fed's on pause.
02:16The data have been mixed, but they show the economy is not falling off a cliff.
02:20We're not gaining a lot, but we're not falling off a cliff.
02:23And so the Fed doesn't have to do any rate cuts to prop up the economy.
02:28The only question is, how do they react to inflation?
02:30And certainly we're all expecting inflation to go up.
02:34Earlier this morning, Albert Moussala, the St. Louis Fed Bank president, had it both ways.
02:38Said if inflation rises, he's prepared to raise rates.
02:41If the economy weakens, he's prepared to cut rates, which is kind of where the Fed in general is.
02:47That's what they're supposed to do.
02:48As he said, risks are rising on both sides.
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