00:00How many more times do you think we're going to see this rhetoric from President Trump threatening to escalate and
00:07then pulling back?
00:10Well, if the past is prologue to the future, we're going to see it a lot and hear it a
00:14lot.
00:15It's almost I can't count the number of times that we've had it in the past.
00:22It seems right now, although it's very difficult to know exactly what the dynamics are, but it seems that the
00:28United States is more interested in reaching an agreement of some kind and getting the strait reopened than the Iranians.
00:37I think the Iranians are intent on trying to retain control of the strait into the future.
00:48They see that as a as leverage for greater influence in the region, in the Gulf and in the broader
00:55Middle East in the future.
00:56They see it as leverage for their broader negotiations with the United States as well.
01:04And so, Ambassador, I want to get back to the strait of rumors because it seems that it is the
01:08priority for both sides at the table right now.
01:11But why do you think President Trump does this or has been doing this for so long?
01:16At this point, do you think that it's the midterm elections looming?
01:20Do you think it's low ammunition like was what was widely reported?
01:24Or do you think it's Gulf states that have been pleading with the United States or President Trump to halt
01:32those attacks and return to diplomacy?
01:36I think these are all constraints on his action.
01:41I think the most immediate one and the one that was probably the most persuasive in this instance was interventions
01:51from Gulf leaders.
01:52It seems that the Saudi crown prince in particular, but also I understand from media reports, the Emirati leadership, Qatari
02:02leadership also weighed in.
02:04They're very worried about their infrastructure being targeted again.
02:09The Iranians made clear in public statements that they would precision target the type of infrastructure that whatever the United
02:18States targeted in Iran, they would match that.
02:21And they've shown that they could do that.
02:23So the Gulf leaders were quite worried about it.
02:29So six months into the war, almost six months into the war, who has the upper hand right now?
02:34Is it Iran?
02:35Is it the United States?
02:39Well, as a former American diplomat, I'd like to say that it's the United States.
02:44But looking at things honestly, in terms of what's going on, I think that control of the strait that Iran
02:55has managed to exercise is a very decisive piece of leverage.
03:02And they've shown the ability to retain it despite powerful military coerciveness from the United States.
03:12So I think that puts them in a powerful position to sort of counter the military pressure and seek a
03:23better set of parameters in negotiations.
03:26Although I think they would be happy to go back to the MOU.
03:33Okay.
03:34So given the kind of dominance they've asserted over the strait of Hormuz, do you think that going forward, the
03:41United States is going to have to, for the lack of better words, succumb to this pressure from Iran and
03:46realize that this might be the new reality of how things are controlled in the region, that leverage over the
03:53waterway?
03:57The president has got himself in a strategic dilemma.
04:02He obviously, the United States has military dominance.
04:06It's a superpower.
04:08Iran is a seventh, eighth rate military power at best and has been severely weakened.
04:14But the United States, because of these constraints we talked about, the United States is not really in a position
04:21to fully exercise that military power over Iran.
04:26I hear President Trump when he says that that attack is going to come.
04:32We'll see it would cause a lot of damage in the Gulf as well.
04:35Massive damage, I think, that would match the damage that was done in Iran.
04:42So it's going to have to be negotiated.
04:44And the Iranians have a lot of leverage with their control of the strait and with the ability they've demonstrated
04:49to attack Gulf neighbors and drag them into this conflict and asymmetric warfare.
04:56Thank you very Dave.
04:56We always have to encourage everyone, have toasty in the world, and have to repair.
04:56I'm given up here when we�� the authorized programme.
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