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The BJP's "double-engine" governance model came under scrutiny following recent electoral setbacks, as a panel discussed whether Prashant Kishor's Bankipur bypoll victory signals the emergence of a credible challenger capable of reshaping Bihar's political landscape.
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00:00shift in Bihar politics? Is the BJP's double engine model under scanner because Prashant
00:04Kishore relentlessly targeted the Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary? Can PK really emerge as BJP's
00:11challenger? Is the youth anger a factor and did that make a difference and is that the BJP's
00:17biggest concern now going ahead? Joining me now for a talking point, Tuhin Sina, BJP's national
00:23spokesperson. Naval Kishore is RJD's national spokesperson. Amitabh Tiwari is political
00:29strategist and founder, Vote Vibe, who's been tracking those polls. And Vivek Kumar is from
00:35the Jant Suraj's national spokesperson. Appreciate your joining us. I want to come to you, Tuhin
00:40Sina, first. You heard from Pawan Verma saying BJP put up a very weak candidate against Prashant
00:46Kishore. Now, did you all take the voter for granted? You won a seat for 30 years. It's
00:51your national presidency. Did the BJP become a victim of its own complacency or hubris or
00:57arrogance? Something went wrong. What went wrong for you?
01:02Well, good evening, Rajdeep. Good evening, everybody. First of all, my congratulations to
01:06Prashant Kishore after the debacle he faced last year. He has made a, you know, terrific
01:11comeback. So good luck to him. Well, yes, sir, we take every election very seriously, whether
01:18it is the, you know, the corporation election, local body election, or the assembly election.
01:22So the choice of the candidate, you know, was not a factor. Obviously, we wanted the candidate
01:29to win and the candidate had worked hard. But, you know, there was a fatigue. There was a certain
01:35fatigue because that seat had been with us for the last 31 years. And moreover, if you look at the
01:42by-elections, several by-elections in the last 10 years or so, whether it was Phoolpur in Uttar
01:49Pradesh or Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh, Gorakhpur, which was vacated by Yogi Adityanath. We lost that
01:54in 2018. But we made a terrific comeback winning 62 looks of our seats in 2019 looks of our elections
02:00between 2021 and 2026. We lost many by-elections in West Bengal. And look at the comeback. So,
02:06yes, I mean, from 51,000 votes. Sir, this is not any ordinary by-election. Sir, this is not any
02:14ordinary by-election. It's the seat held by your party president. No, no, that's all the more reason
02:19we are going to fight back very hard from 51,000 seat vote victory in November 2025 to a 19
02:26,000 vote
02:27loss. Yes. I mean, it's a, it's something which we will be taking very seriously and we will be fighting
02:33back equally hard. But like I said, this would not be a factor going ahead. If at all, there is
02:39one
02:40party which is worst affected. It is the RJD. You know, it is the entire vote bank of RJD, which
02:46overnight got transferred to, to, um, you know, Prashant Kishor. So where is, how is RJD going to
02:51survive now? Okay. Prashant Kishor is basically going to occupy the space of RJD. But having, you know,
02:57I was listening to, um, I was listening to Pawan Verma Ji also, my one concern having seen,
03:03having seen, uh, you know, uh, Prashant Kishor for the last one decade is that, you know, I see him
03:09as a one-man army like Arvind Kejewal and one-man army don't go too far in politics. Okay. Vivek
03:16Kumar, you're hearing what has just been said. RJ, Jan Suraj, national spokesperson, one-man army,
03:22this is a one-off. BJP says, all you did was take the RJD vote and that vote got transferred
03:28to you. Even though, let me point out that a large section of, of, uh, Bakipur is upper
03:33caste. So it's not that, oh, Prashant only took RJD vote. He also took the BJP vote in
03:39Bakipur. But your quick first response, Vivek Kumar, is he a one-man army? Is this a one-off?
03:49Okay. We'll try and, okay, we, we'll try and go back to Vivek Kumar, but you want to, uh, go
03:55in,
03:56uh, Naval Kishore, do you want to respond to what I just, uh, what you just heard?
04:00Ki RJD khatam ho gai hai hai. Tejasvi Aadav is the real loser today.
04:07No, Alvip, uh, the party which is supposed to be, or claims to be the biggest party in the
04:13world, the president of that particular party has won, uh, has been, uh, represented
04:18that constituency for more than three decades. Well, they have lost over 55,000. Last time
04:25it was 98,000. They have come back to 44,000. And Tuhin Sinhar does not understand this.
04:31He is saying that RJD has, see, basically, Prashant Kishore has-
04:34No, your vote has also gone, Naval Kishore ji, your vote has also gone down dramatically
04:38and drastically. Prashant Kishore has taken your vote and the BJP vote.
04:44No, no, I'm, I'm not saying that whose vote he has taken. He has attracted
04:48vote for three reasons. One, the arrogance that BJP has put forward. Uh, second is the
04:53youth anger and bad governance in Bihar. These are the three primary reasons and that being
04:58urban area, these three factors played well and therefore BJP lost and badly lost. There
05:03is nothing called vote of BJP and vote of RJD. If you call that, it is traditional voter,
05:09traditional seat. Sir, sir, do you accept it's a big, no, no, do you accept it's a big setback
05:14for you? Your leader, Tejasvi Yadav was holidaying in London. He should have been on the ground.
05:20No, no, but how, how is that connected with this kind of, uh, theory?
05:24You have to, you have to fight an election on the ground. Prashant Kishore was fighting it
05:28on the ground. But Nitin Nabeen was there for, uh, almost a whole week. What did it happen?
05:34Why couldn't he save, uh, uh, BJP when, when, when, when he was himself representing for three
05:39decades, why did he lose that? He, he had been winner for six times and he was there campaigning,
05:44then also he lost. It is not matter of who is campaigning and who is losing. It is a traditional
05:48seat of BJP and the question, all question goes to BJP. Okay, you're saying all?
05:53For opposition. Okay. All persons should go to BJP. Okay. So today you're saying, okay,
05:59I've heard you. I've heard you, Nawal Kishore ji. I want to bring in Amitabh Tiwari to try
06:03and understand cephalogically what happened. Amitabh Tiwari, how often is it? According to
06:08Tuheen Sina, BJP has lost some by-elections also in recent times and then recovered by the
06:12state election. Truth is though, 80% of by-elections in the last 30 years have been won by the
06:18incumbent
06:18government. You win an election by 58,000 votes six months ago and now lose
06:23it by almost 20,000. That's a 78,000 switch. That's huge in political term. Explain really
06:30to our viewers, what explains this defeat for the BJP and a victory for Prashant Kishore
06:37who actually didn't win a single seat for his party in 2025.
06:42Yes, so essentially, as you rightly mentioned, around 70 to 80% of the time, the incumbent government
06:47wins the five polls. So what happened here is that two things happened. If we see
06:53there is a bigger dent in BJP vote share than in the RJD vote share. So the BJP vote share
06:59has actually declined from 62% to around 35%. So that's a 27% loss. Whereas the RJD vote
07:07share has declined from around 30% to 11%, so a 19% loss. So the core vote block of
07:13the RJD, which is
07:14the MY, the Muslim Yado, a large section of it seems to have moved towards the JSP or Prashant Kishore
07:22as he was better suited or placed to defeat the BJP. Even amongst the BJP, the fatigue factor, the
07:32discontent amongst youth because the youth is almost 1,10,000 out of the 3,90,000 votes of the
07:40constituency. And Prashant had, in fact, in the past, when the Vidhan Sabha elections were happening,
07:47held protests with the youth. So he had supported the youth movements which were taking place in the state
07:52in 2025. Alsoโฆ So does your, does your data, just does your data, Amitabh, show that a large sizable
08:00section of the youth, I want to put it very clearly, large sizable section of the youth cutting across
08:06Bihar's traditional caste divide has voted for Prashant Kishore. 18 to 30. Are we seeing Gen Z again at work
08:14here?
08:15See, clearly when we did the opinion poll and not an exit poll. So in the opinion poll,
08:20the highest support for Prashant Kishore was amongst the 18 to 24 category and he was leading
08:26the 18 to 24 category support against the BJP in that category. So the Gen Z.
08:32The other factor is that even the upper caste or the general category voter also has shifted towards
08:39Prashant Kishore because one, Brahmin C, Prashant as a future leader who can become a CM because there
08:46is no Brahmin CM in the state in the past 30 years. And also, of course, the fact that there
08:53is a
08:54leadership vacuum in the state in the post-Tish Lalu era. And we have now a contest for who will
09:02emerge
09:03as the leader of the future, Samrat Chaudhary, Tejasfi Yadav, Prashant Kishore and Chirag Paswan.
09:09So that battle will also play out in the next three to five years, I believe.
09:13Interesting. Very interesting. Vivek Kumar, you are now with us. Vivek Kumar,
09:17I see you are celebrating. Your colors are there. So you areโฆ Tell me, did you all expect this?
09:23Did Jan Suraj expect this after your defeat six months ago? What has changed? What has changed?
09:30Of course, first of all, apologies from my side for a poor network, Razdeep. And if you may allow,
09:36if I can have a light-hearted moment with you, you know, we are no more a party with zero
09:42seats and
09:43Prashant Kishore is the hero today. No, no, I am ready to say, I had said, Prashant had become from
09:49hero to zero. Today, from zero, he's back to hero. Yeah. So thank you. Thank you so much.
09:55Thank you. Super happy to be on your show. And of course, of course, Razdeep, you know, today,
09:59as you rightly pointed out, you know, it's a black swan moment in history of Indian politics.
10:04You know, it's not an ordinary bipolar, right? It has been a BJP's bastion for the last 30 years.
10:11And the arrogance has gotten into their head. And democracy, you know, arrogance can't get to your
10:17head. It's a complete decimation of their arrogance. You know, when, when some leaders
10:21from Bharti Antha Party says that,
10:22So it was high time that, you know, you can't take voters for right, you can't take voters of
10:30Bakipur for granted. And secondly, you know, voters of Bakipur has clearly demonstrated that if there's
10:36a credible viable alternative, people will choose a credible viable alternative. Bihar, which has been
10:42known rightly or wrongly. So for caste politics has clearly demonstrated that if they get a viable
10:48alternative, they are happy to move beyond caste politics, move beyond party politics and vote for
10:54vote for change. So it's no more ordinary election. It's gonna show the path for rest of, I would say,
10:59the elections, which is going to happen in not only in Bihar, but beyond Bihar as well. And Bakipur,
11:04to correct Mr. Tuhin Shina, their vote percentage has dropped by 25 percentage points.
11:10So to say that we have only taken Rajat's vote is a misnomer, you know. It's quite sad that someone
11:16as learned as Mr. Tuhin is wrong with his data today.
11:19No, I agree with you. It's a huge drop in the BJP's vote, Tuhin Shina, you know. And part of
11:25that,
11:25this is a constituency, large upper caste traditional BJP voter. And as Amitabh Tiwari pointed out,
11:31a lot of the youth, 18 to 24 have voted for Prashant Kishore. Shouldn't you be worried?
11:37When you look at these numbers that I'm putting up, you should be very worried. This is coming on the
11:41back of the student protest, the Kokhrut Janata Party resignation. Is the BJP worried that the youth
11:47are increasingly getting either fatigued or angry with the BJP, especially in Bihar,
11:52especially in the post-Niti Shira, that Samrat Chaudhary is not the solution?
11:56No. You know, Rajdeep, we are constantly in the vigilant mode. We are constantly in the worrying
12:03mode. So some, you know, there are times when the victory of margin is less and then we immediately,
12:08even after the victory, we immediately get back to the drawing room and to the meetings. We are not
12:12like Rahul Gandhi who will go on a vacation. So rest assured, any defeat and a defeat of this
12:19this nature will be taken very seriously. So you admit that it's a major setback?
12:24So you admit it's a setback? Well, yes. I mean, from a 51,000-vote victory to a 19,000
12:32-vote
12:32defeat, of course, you know, it is something which has to be taken very seriously. But at the same time,
12:40it is today only that in Manjalpur, in Gujarat, we have polled 67% votes and won the bi-poll
12:47over there,
12:48very convincingly. So, you know, local issues... Sir, you've lost... Sir, I didn't want to... Sir,
12:52you won in Gujarat, but you've lost in Madhya Pradesh. Again, a seat where the Chief Minister
12:57campaigned for a full week. So, you know, I mean, I haven't seen such a bad day for the BJP
13:02in a long time.
13:03Rajdeep, Rajdeep, in states where we are in power, with overwhelming numbers, sometimes the voters
13:10tend to be complacent. They tend to feel that, you know, the victory or defeat would be inconsequential.
13:16That happens. But, you know, I... So, is it... Is it that... Is it that... Tuheen, sorry to interrupt.
13:21Is it that or is it that in certain states, your Chief Ministers are non-performing? And this double
13:27engine model is not working in non-performing... With non-performing Chief Ministers.
13:33No, no. I think you are... You're just exaggerating it. Because, like I said, Manjalpur
13:40has shown a brilliant performance. And tomorrow, there could be another bipolar where we could win
13:44as convincingly. But I just want to correct my friend from Jan Suraj. Nobody from BJP has made
13:50that ridiculous statement. You show me the video. You know, it's a fake news which they have been
13:56spreading. And Ravi Shankar Prasad has categorically said that if... You know, I mean, don't spread these
14:01fake news. His son has threatened some of the journalists that they would be sued.
14:05Right. Can I get Vivek Kumar...
14:08Can I get Vivek Kumar...
14:09Did he come to your office and say that?
14:11Vivek Kumar, can you please respond to that? You know, Prashant Kishore seems to have tried to beat
14:16the BJP at its own game by claiming without... Without giving any proof that Ravi Shankar Prasad said
14:22even if I put up a dog or cat in Baakipur, they will win. Where is the statement?
14:26This is now Prashant Kishore also playing fake news politics.
14:30Not at all. BJP getting its medicine back, but...
14:33Please show me where. No, where is the Ravi Shankar Prasad saying it on camera?
14:39We have never quoted Ravi Shankar Prasad. It's BJP's leader. It's their arrogance.
14:43They have been quoting on the streets of Bihar that, you know,
14:46we are going to live in any way.
14:48Prashant Kishore says, look, we have stood up.
14:50Anyways...
14:51No, but who said it?
14:53What, mister... What is more important here...
14:56Tohin, please give me a moment. What is important here is look how
14:59ridiculous this statement sounds that the voter gets complacent.
15:03For God's sake, why will the voters get complacent? Even in the defeat, they are not able to take this.
15:09The politicians who are taking voters for a ride, there is no accountability at all.
15:14It has been the bastion of BJP for the last 40 years. And I invite you, Rajdeep, to come to
15:19Baakipur. It's more or less a hell. Even if it rains for 10 minutes,
15:27This is what they have done to Baakipur. A lot of people think that Baakipur is some village or
15:32countryside in Bihar. It's actually in the heart of Patna, which is the capital city.
15:36No. Look what they have done to Baakipur. And here, Mr. Tuhil Sina has the audacity to say that
15:41voters get complacent. What a joke. This is why you are lost.
15:46Okay. So, just six months ago...
15:48Are you trying to say six months ago, voters did not realize that there were
15:52inadequacies in the constituency? You also need to be logical, my friend.
15:57Mr. Tuhil Sina, you also know, Mr. Tuhil Sina, you also know what happened six months back.
16:02Mr. Tuhil Sina, you also know what happened six months back.
16:05Vivek, Vivek, Vivek, Vivek, hold on.
16:07Okay, Tuhil Sina, I've heard you. Vivek, I've heard you. Amitabh, let me give you a final word.
16:11Because, you know, the fact is, are we seeing a big change, you think, in Bihar politics?
16:16Or are you... I mean, it's too early to say that Prashant Kishore could now be the next big
16:22challenger to the BJP in Bihar. Do you believe it's too early, premature?
16:30No, I wouldn't say it is too early because, as I mentioned in the earlier comment,
16:34there is a leadership vacuum. So, we are entering into a post-Nitish, post-Lalu era.
16:39And who will emerge as a leader who will take on, either lead the opposition or will take on the
16:48BJP? That's a big, big challenge. Tuhil Sina mentioned about the fatigue factor in 2030.
16:53BJP or NDA would have completed 25 years in power. Despite that, Bihar still continues to lack
17:00amongst major indicators like per capita income. So, what Prashant gets a platform now in the
17:07assembly to take on both Tejasvi and Samrat. Because he has taken on both these people prior
17:14to the election. And this is where I think he would try to outwit both these leaders and show
17:20that he is Paraj. Because in this victory also, he's not saying that it is a victory against Nitin
17:26Naveen or BJP. He's saying it is a victory against Samrat or BJP's choice of Samrat Chaudhary as the
17:32chief minister, directly pitching him against the chief minister. That said, it's a low-stack
17:37election also. Sometimes what happens is that the voters or supporters of BJP might have felt that
17:43he's a better candidate and let's give chance to this person. Will they remain with PK in the next
17:50elections or in the elections which are held in 2030? It will all depend upon his ability to raise
17:58issues against the government and also try to occupy the opposition space. Because that's also a red
18:04heading for the RCT and the Congress alliance. Okay, let me leave it there. Interesting views
18:09being expressed. Prashant Kishore remains a fascinating character. Thank you all very much for joining us.
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