00:00Elijah J. Mania is a veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst.
00:05Elijah, thanks so much for your time.
00:06It does seem like there's a bit of a pattern.
00:08It's not the first time Donald Trump has ramped up the rhetoric and then backed away.
00:13Do you accept the reasons that we've been given for the climb down,
00:16or do you think there's more at play?
00:19Hello, Sally, and thank you for having me.
00:21Actually, you're absolutely right.
00:23It is a pattern because Donald Trump doesn't have a strategy now.
00:28He doesn't have a strategy to bring Iran to the table,
00:32at the exception of abiding by the MOU that he signed.
00:37Nobody forced him when he was in Versailles in France.
00:41And he thought that the MOU is all about opening the Strait of Hormuz
00:47and then finding another way to bypass the Iranian control and Iranian demand in all the 14 points.
00:55However, he doesn't have even an exit strategy to end this war.
01:00So he's repeatedly telling us that he's going to war and then repeatedly also telling us that someone is asking
01:09him not to go to war.
01:11And he had the finger really on the fire point just to stop bombing Iran.
01:18There is no reason why he would bomb Iran, because even if he does that, he's not going to bring
01:25Iran on the table,
01:26and he's going to increase the oil and gas crisis around the world.
01:31Is it clear where Israel stands on all of this?
01:35They haven't been involved in any of the attacks since that memorandum of understanding was agreed.
01:42Netanyahu facing domestic challenges and an election in October.
01:48Excellent point.
01:49Actually, it was Israel that brought Donald Trump to start what he thought an easy war on Iran.
01:57And now it's a war between the U.S. and Iran, because Donald Trump is caught now.
02:04He is the one who said he's going to open the Strait of Hormuz.
02:07There is no need for Israel to intervene and make things worse, because all the bank of objective of the
02:15Israeli and the Americans, the military one, have been used.
02:19When Donald Trump threatened to bomb the oil and gas or the electricity and power plant facility, these are civilian
02:29targets.
02:30So what's the point in having Israel joining a war against civilian infrastructure when these are war crimes and are
02:39not going to change anything in the strategic course of action?
02:44They can be tactical victory.
02:46Therefore, the Americans can do that on their own, but knowing perfectly well that it's not going to lead them
02:53anywhere.
02:53So this is why Israel is on the side.
02:56And on top of that, it doesn't serve to see Israel bombed for Benjamin Netanyahu to run his election that
03:03are closing by in the next two to three months.
03:06And of course, U.S. voters are not too keen on this war as it is as well, which is
03:11another factor.
03:12You said earlier there's no exit strategy.
03:14So do you think that we're just going to see this rhetoric play out again and again, or does it
03:20severely reduce the risk of more bombing?
03:23We have seen one step toward the right direction.
03:28We've seen during the negotiation, the Americans sent to the Iranians via the Omani that they will accept the control
03:36of Iran for all the ships coming inside the Strait of Hormuz.
03:42But then they would allow Oman to control the outward.
03:47Nevertheless, this is not something that the Iranians will accept.
03:51And the Iranians consider if the Americans have accepted 50 percent of their demand regarding the Strait of Hormuz, they
03:59will accept the other 50.
04:00However, the Americans are not aware that for Iran, it is not a question of paragraph five linked to the
04:08Strait of Hormuz.
04:09It's paragraph one stopping the war, including Lebanon.
04:13It's a release of all the frozen Iranian asset is the lifting of all the sanction and the compensation.
04:21So Donald Trump, if he agrees on all the Iranian condition on the Strait of Hormuz, he's going to be
04:28faced with another very solid war asking him to comply by all the point of the MOU.
04:34Thank you so much for your time, Elijah J. Magna, a veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst.
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