00:00Elijah, welcome back. President Trump claimed the United States war in Iran was nearing completion.
00:07What is your assessment?
00:11Thank you for having me. This statement is a political statement, not a battlefield assessment.
00:18Wars don't end because one side declared them complete. The end is when the objectives are
00:24achieved and the opponent has either surrendered or no longer capable to fight or not responding
00:32anymore. None of this is clearly the case in this war. Iran still retains escalation capability.
00:40It is launching missiles, drones. The regional allies are fighting and there is a maritime
00:47disruption. Therefore, we're seeing an attempt by Donald Trump always to shape the perception,
00:54to claim control over a war that remains very fluid. And if anything, what he's trying
01:00to do is to calm down the stock market and the energy market. But saying so near completion
01:08reflect a narrative that needs to be verified because the war is still very far from it.
01:15Elijah, we started the program talking about reports that Iran had shot down an American
01:21fighter jet with crew members missing. We are now learning Reuters is reporting that the U.S.
01:28fighter jet was shot down over Iran. A search is underway for the crew. This is according
01:34to a U.S. official. Reuters also reporting that a search underway for the crew of the U.S.
01:41fighter jet shot down over Iran, citing U.S. officials. What does an event like this
01:48do for the course of this conflict?
01:53So the Americans are talking about the crew. They're not talking about a single pilot. And
01:58the F-15E normally has two pilots. That would be both militarily and politically significant.
02:06It indicates that the Iranian air defense has successfully engaged a high-end U.S. platform,
02:13altering the tactical balance in the air. So this raises another level of risk for U.S.
02:20operation and the Israeli operation over the Iranian territory. And really quickly,
02:27they want deterrence posture, signaling that escalation carry real costs that Donald Trump
02:33needs to respond. Now, there is another point. There is a contract in conduct between both sides.
02:40The U.S. Secretary of War, Hexit Rhetoric, said at the beginning that his soldiers were instructed
02:48to leave no quarters. While Iran, in this instance, is urging the civilian to avoid harming the pilot
02:55and capturing them, even offering a reward. So the air demand here is no longer uncontested.
03:03And that changes the calculation on both sides.
03:07What should we make of the sacking of the U.S. military's chief of staff? What does that say
03:14at this moment?
03:16It shows that first, maybe the chief of staff is contesting the immoral behavior of the U.S.
03:23army, where civilian targets are coming up, hitting civilian bridges in constructions not finished
03:33yet, with the village under the bridge, hitting the energy plant and switching from military objective,
03:41because obviously the bank of objective has been exhausted in relation to the military target.
03:48So now the Americans are really heading toward everything that is civilian to degrade the state.
03:55And I don't think many soldiers or generals with honor would accept to turn their guns and bombs
04:03against civilians to try and give an impression they are winning the war.
04:08This is not how the military win the war.
04:12This is a disgrace to their uniform and to the arc of war.
04:18This is a culture of the military.
04:18This is a改 form of war.
04:18This is a place where the military will have to drop the war.
04:18This is a place where the military will have to be organized by the military at the stable setting.
04:18And this is a place where the military will be separated from the military to create an airport in a
04:18state of the unit.
04:18And this is the place where the military will have to run away the military.
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