00:00U.S. President Donald Trump's move to de-escalate the Iran conflict sends a significant signal,
00:06even as claims of having achieved regime change in Iran were not actually true.
00:11Political risk analyst Ian Bremmer says the conflict had become politically costly at home
00:16and strategically limiting abroad, prompting Trump to declare success despite a lack of clear gain.
00:24But I think that Trump himself does understand that this war is not going well for him.
00:32It's unpopular in the United States, and it is costing a lot of money.
00:37And he doesn't have a good military plan for how to achieve significantly more than he already has.
00:47And in that regard, what we're seeing is Trump saying, OK, I guess I'll just declare victory.
00:55And if it were up to me, if I were advising Trump, and I've been saying this for a month
00:59now,
00:59I think the big mistake was that Trump didn't declare victory a month ago.
01:06Despite damage to Iran's economy and infrastructure,
01:09Bremmer said the Islamic Republic's core power structure remains in place,
01:14leaving its influence over regional energy dynamics and security risks unresolved.
01:19If the ceasefire holes and reconstruction begins,
01:23Bremmer estimated the overall economic damage could amount to roughly a fifth of the global cost of the COVID-19
01:29pandemic,
01:30a severe but manageable shock over time.
01:33However, he said the war's broader geopolitical effects favoured U.S. rivals,
01:38strengthening Russia through higher oil revenues,
01:40and positioning China as a longer-term beneficiary amid what he described as
01:46Washington's increasingly short-term and inward-looking approach.
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