00:02Well, it's looking as if it could very well be the strongest El Niño that we have through
00:07our period of observational record, certainly since at least the middle of the last century.
00:12We had a couple of really strong ones in the intervening years, but this one is on track
00:17to be the strongest and it's developing really rapidly.
00:21So it started a couple of months ago and it's intensifying, you know, really quickly.
00:27And it's looking as if we've still got another several months, but at least four months,
00:33I would say, of further intensifying higher ocean temperatures across the Pacific associated
00:38with the event.
00:39There's a role here for global heating and the changes in our climate that are going on.
00:43The global ocean has been at record high temperatures now for quite some time.
00:48We had the hottest June ocean temperatures on record.
00:52It looks like July is going to be close to that, if not hotter again.
00:55So altogether, there's a great deal of extra heat in the ocean.
01:00And then when you add in the natural fluctuations of atmosphere and ocean that add up to an El
01:05Niño event, which happens every sort of four to six years or so, then the higher ocean temperatures
01:11and the shifts in weather patterns that have accompanied those, I think, are contributing
01:16to making this such a strong event.
01:18Australia being right on the edge of the Pacific is very much in El Niño's sphere of influence.
01:24However, again, El Niño is not the only factor.
01:27The local sea surface temperatures around Australia play a role.
01:30Those, too, are above average.
01:32And that adds to the hotter air available, more energy in the atmosphere and so on.
01:38So I think what we're looking at ahead for Australia is the potential for drier conditions and a very
01:46high probability of above average air temperatures as we go through the rest of winter and into
01:52spring and summer.
01:53What we're not so certain about is what it's going to do to the rainfall, because El Niño's
01:57have very different impacts from time to time on Australia's rainfall patterns.
02:03They set things up for the potential of below average rainfall.
02:07But whether that eventuates, we really have to wait and see.
02:11A strong El Niño like this one could lead to below average rainfall, but it's not a guarantee.
02:16Thanks, James.
02:16ground is zero at lastút�umb time.
02:16Let's go.
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