00:02There's probably half a dozen examples in the last 40 years where a premiership or a
00:07leader has changed very late just before an election campaign.
00:11None of them have been particularly successful.
00:13I think the Labor Party will be hoping that at least minimising losses.
00:17There would be a hope that a new leader, Jacinta Allen did have poor preferred premier ratings,
00:22they'd be hoping that Mr Carroll would do better with those, Ben Carroll would do better
00:28with those ratings, and that might drag up some of the Labor vote.
00:32The news poll that was released this week was rather better for Labor than some recent
00:36ones that had been a decline in One Nation support.
00:38So Labor will be hoping for some benefit from that, but Labor does have a really tough task.
00:44They've been in power essentially since 1999, for all but four years since then, because
00:50of their ability to hold those regional seats in Bendigo and Ballarat.
00:54That's been so important for their continuance in offence.
00:57If they start to lose those Bendigo and Ballarat seats, and of course Jacinta Allen was one
01:02of those MPs that was part of that wave into office for Labor in 1999 when they won those,
01:06when she won the Bendigo seat for the first time, they've got a hold of those, and that's
01:11where One Nation may be a real wild card for Labor in some of those seats.
01:16You've then got the suburban seats, there's been a lot of unhappiness about where money's
01:20been spent.
01:21Some of those western suburbs seats like Melton, there's a sense that they haven't been receiving
01:26as much of that capital works projects that marginal seats in the South East have done.
01:31There's a sense that after twelve years in office, everything that's gone wrong for
01:35the previous is now the fault of the current government.
01:38And it's very difficult to move on from what is seen as not enough has been done about various
01:43projects.
01:44They did a lot of, the Andrews government did very well with this project to remove the
01:49level crossings, improving transport, building sky rails to get around level crossing problems.
01:55So they've done a lot to improve that, but they were sort of, a lot of those were small
01:59scale projects.
02:00When they've gone on to the bigger projects, the suburban rail loop, they're the sort of
02:04things which people have begun to question, and that's where those arguments about corruption
02:08in the building projects has become a problem for them.
02:12Yes, Anthony, you outlined what Labor would hope from a leadership change here, but given the
02:18evidence of what we've seen, I mean, can these late changes pay off?
02:23And by paid off, what are we talking about here?
02:25Oh, look, I mean, I always think back to Russell Cooper becoming Premier of Queensland 73 days
02:32before the 1989 election.
02:33That was an attempt to save the heartland.
02:35They knew they were going to lose, they brought someone in to hang on to a few seats.
02:39Is that Labor's strategy or do they have a realistic hope of trying to win it?
02:43There would, you know, no government ever admits it's a good time to lose an election, but if
02:47they were to lose the election, they'd want to make sure they've got a good solid number
02:51of members in Parliament.
02:53When John Brumby lost the 2010 Victorian election, the Labor Party was still very strong when
02:57it went into opposition and had an experienced front bench.
03:00The Labor Party would be hoping if they do lose the election, that they've got a good solid
03:05caucus after the election.
03:07And they'd be hoping that a change of leadership will help them do that.
03:10They might turn a route just into a heavy defeat.
03:13So that's what I presume is some of the thinking.
03:16Maybe some think they will win.
03:18That's always, I think, is a little bit hopeful after 12 years.
03:20And we've seen a few times over the last few decades, Tasmania in 2010, New South Wales
03:26in 2007, where a three term government won a fourth term and the fourth term turned out
03:31to be the worst of all.
03:32So there'd be some in the Labor Party thinking, like John Brumby when he lost in 2010, a narrow
03:38loss would be almost a win for the Labor Party.
03:41Because with the Liberal Party win, they've been out of office for 12 years.
03:44There's the problem of one nation.
03:45Does one nation win seats?
03:47Is there a majority government to replace Labor after the election?
03:52So I think there'll be lots of issues like that coming up towards the election campaign.
03:56But it's still, Labor's been in office for 12 years.
03:58Just the change of leadership might change some of the atmospherics, but probably won't
04:03change the overall result.
04:05And when you say a win is hopeful, where is polling at at the moment?
04:10And how is the One Nation vote really complicating those predictions?
04:14Does Ben Carroll have your support?
04:15Well, I mean, this week's news poll looked a little clearer.
04:18It's that One Nation have dropped to 19%.
04:20Some polls have been showing them ahead of both Labor and Liberal.
04:24If that was the case, you'd have a three corner contest all across the state.
04:29The lower the One Nation vote.
04:30And it's astonishing that One Nation can lead in an opinion poll when they have no leader,
04:34no state policies and no candidates.
04:37And at this stage, it's only four months of the election.
04:39Perhaps they'll name a leader in a team and that will sort of garner that attention,
04:42which has sort of gone out of them in recent months.
04:46But I think that's the great unknown, is can the Liberal Party, if One Nation is still in the field,
04:51is it going to complicate?
04:53Is the National Party and the Liberals in rural areas going to lose seats to One Nation?
04:57And if that happens, can they actually win a majority government after the election?
05:01Because it's not just forming government after the election.
05:05With fixed term parliaments, you have to form government which is going to last for four years,
05:09because a mechanism for getting another election is very difficult.
05:12And Victoria, it was once considered, you know, Labor's strongest state.
05:17Has something fundamentally changed there?
05:20No, I don't think so.
05:22It's still, you know, you look at federal results, Labor has still been quite dominant.
05:25I think what happens is all governments after 12 years in office,
05:29you compare the Labor government today to when it came to office in 2014,
05:33a lot of front bench talent has moved on.
05:35I mean, there was a lot of ministers who left after COVID.
05:38It was just such a rugged time to be a minister of government.
05:41And there was a big turnover of ministers in that period.
05:43I think they've hit the end of their term.
05:45And I think there's a lot of MPs now who haven't experienced opposition.
05:50I mean, Jacinta Allen built her name in opposition.
05:53She was, I remember, in the last year of the Napthine government,
05:56challenging the speaker day after day
05:58as they sort of brought the government undone on the floor of parliament.
06:01She was very impressive in that era
06:03as just a hard person in running the procedures of parliament.
06:08She's spent a long time as leader of the Labor Party in the parliament,
06:11running all those parliamentary procedures.
06:13So she's got a lot of experience.
06:15She's been there for 27 years.
06:17Some of the members who've come in since 2014 have only ever been in government.
06:21And I think some of them have sort of taken that.
06:23I think all MPs in long-term governments get caught out
06:26that they haven't had that experience in opposition.
06:28So, look, it'll be an interesting election.
06:31It'll be tough for the Labor Party to win, 12 years in office.
06:34The Liberal Party has had a lot of internal problems
06:38over the last four years in particular.
06:40They look like, under Jess Wilson,
06:41they've actually sort of managed to paper over the cracks
06:44of what's gone on for the last few years.
06:46And then you've got One Nation.
06:48How will they perform in the election campaign?
06:50It could be a very interesting election campaign.
06:52And it's the last one before the next federal election.
06:55So I think it's...
06:56No, the New South Wales election is next year, of course,
06:58but it's an important state for Labor at the federal election
07:02because they hold so many seats.
07:04It's important for Labor
07:05that they're able to federally hold on to their Victorian seats.
07:09So that's why there'll be a lot of interest in it.
07:11And if One Nation does get the balance of power...
07:13To date, One Nation has just been a small party
07:16on the crossbench in the upper house.
07:17If they get the balance of power in the lower house of parliament,
07:22potentially have some role in the functioning of government
07:24and who governs, it'll be a very different role for them.
07:27And if they have to perform in that situation,
07:30they'll be watched closely from other states.
07:31Labor is on the nose in Victoria.
07:34I mean, we saw in South Australia Labor won that election easy
07:37because it was a first-term government with a popular premier.
07:40There was One Nation out-polled the Liberal Party.
07:42That's very different to Victoria
07:44where there's an unpopular Labor government
07:45and the Liberal Party has had its internal problems.
07:48So it's a very different situation.
07:49There will then be the New South Wales election
07:51where optional preferential voting will work
07:54against any attempt for the coalition or One Nation
07:56to win that election.
07:58Labor would be better positioned.
07:59But everyone else will watch how One Nation performs
08:03if they have an important role in the balance of power.
08:06Because, to date, they've been a party of protest.
08:09If they end up in the parliament
08:10with an important role in who governs and how,
08:14they can't just be a party of protest.
08:16They're suddenly a party that has a role in government in some form.
08:19Retired ABC election analyst Anthony Green.
08:22Great to get your insights on this this morning.
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