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00:00I just made up a word. Sigmund Blum with us now on the West Her Hotline. Sigmund, here we go.
00:06Not that, you know, it's not a 12-month-a-year endeavor for some of us, but for most, for
00:13normal people, no offense, fantasy football has arrived, would you say?
00:19Yeah, no offense taken. And I was saying earlier today on a show that, you know, before week one, it's
00:27like the click, click, click before the first hill on the roller coaster. Right now, we're just having a conversation
00:32in line, waiting to get on the roller coaster.
00:35Right, trying to figure, do I have a shot at the front? How long is the line in the front?
00:41Like, should I?
00:42You're hearing a scream somewhere. Ooh, what's that going to be that's going to make us scream?
00:45Right on. You know, Sigmund, why not start with quarterback here in our conversation today and Josh Allen?
00:53I probably, over the years when we've talked, tried to sort of like, you know, with some nuance, well, okay,
01:00let's get into some more interesting positional value type ideas, whoever that is for the Bills.
01:06I mean, post-Diggs, they haven't really had the receiver that you needed to have. But Allen seems to be,
01:12this year in drafts, kind of on his own tier.
01:16And I read something from you recently where you were like, on board, you know, like maybe this is going
01:21to be, it was maybe something that Tyler Dunn had in a podcast, you know, like just, that was it.
01:28Like, this bigger year might be out there for Allen. Are you banking on that?
01:33I would. And really, for fantasy football, this can be a bit of a conundrum because I like quarterbacks all
01:41the way down to like the 20th quarterback off the board.
01:44Like, I'd be fine going in to battle with Malik Willis and Baker Mayfield.
01:49But at the same time, fantasy football is about having more points than your opponent.
01:54And Josh Allen in the third round, especially if you have a scoring system where you get, you know, long
02:00touchdown bonuses or 300-yard bonuses or point per 20 pass yards,
02:06where quarterbacks have PPR leagues, where quarterback scoring is really well ahead of the pack, I'm having trouble justifying passing
02:17on Allen because he was playing on a broken foot last year.
02:20He had no number one receiver to talk about.
02:26And listen, Matt Harmon, my buddy over at Yahoo Sports, I call him my nephew, he, and I love that
02:31he can say, well, Josh Allen told me, I don't really care about route running.
02:35I just want them to get open.
02:36And that's D.J. Moore.
02:38You know, D.J. Moore had his career year with Justin Fields.
02:41What do you think he can do with Josh Allen?
02:43And then they basically made his guy, his rabbi, the head coach.
02:48So everything tells me this is basically Josh Allen's team.
02:52And we haven't seen what he can do when he has that kind of freedom and control.
02:58Yeah, I mean, I love what you're saying.
03:00I hope they deliver it.
03:02You know, I hope they do sort of turn more over to him, which I know sounds a little nutty
03:07because a lot of the narrative around the Bills, Sigmund, for the last three, four or five years has been
03:13really not that long.
03:15Ever since Diggs left, I guess, mostly.
03:18Is that they're leaning on him too much.
03:20It's like he's got to do everything.
03:22But I feel like maybe more passing and more downfield passing is what I have in mind when I think
03:28of that.
03:28Like, feature the passing game.
03:30Like, lean into what you have here instead of, you know, I mean, I love his running.
03:35It's incredibly valuable.
03:36But, man, if they could get a few more 20- to 40-yard passes down the field, I mean,
03:42that's only going to increase his longevity, I would think.
03:46And the clip that Mike was referring to, the Ty Dunn clip, was about how are they going to dial
03:52him back a little bit after that turnover against Denver?
03:55And he was saying no.
03:56And he cited, I think, a really important point.
03:58Sean McDermott's a defensive head coach.
04:00He's going to think of the game plan overall in a defensive-minded way.
04:05And teams really take on the personality of their head coach and their quarterback.
04:09And McDermott maybe was a little bit of a wet blanket on what Josh Allen could do if the team
04:15had his personality.
04:16And let's remember, Joe Brady coached D.J. Moore in Carolina.
04:19And he was the architect of the offense that Joe Burrow basically had the best season in college football history.
04:25So he's going to let Josh Allen play in for fantasy football.
04:28That's got to be good.
04:30If you're drafting a lot, I guess, I mean, if you're definitely pro-Alan, like you're sounding, Sigmund,
04:36and, you know, also somebody that is willing to wait at quarterback, you've got to kind of force it, I
04:40think, this year,
04:41where it's in the third round and maybe it comes down to how much you like those other options in
04:46the third round
04:46because they're not all awesome.
04:48Right.
04:48It's maybe a little bit soft.
04:51Exactly.
04:51Like, am I really going to say, oh, Brees Hall or somebody that, you know,
04:58the reason they're in the third round is because there are questions where Josh Allen, like you said,
05:01he is in a tier of his own.
05:03Nobody denies that.
05:04Another thing I'll throw into the tiers, Dalton Tate actually having a legitimately healthy offseason.
05:09What does that look like?
05:10You know, I don't want to jinx him.
05:11But I think this is really exciting.
05:14James Cook used more as receiver.
05:16Carmichael.
05:16All of these things lead back to Josh Allen.
05:18Yeah.
05:19You know, I wanted to ask you about Cook.
05:21Like, if you're bullish on the passing game is a wrinkle there.
05:24We talked some about this on our show yesterday, Sigmund.
05:27But if you're bullish on Allen's numbers and it being more pass-heavy, what does that do to Cook for
05:33you?
05:33Are you, like, avoiding him because you think a dip is coming after leading the league in rushing last year?
05:39No.
05:39I would say just the opposite.
05:42If you're sitting at sixth spot, the drafts in typical PPR leagues are going something like Gibbs, Dijon Robinson, Jamar
05:51Chase, Puka Nakua.
05:53And then that's where you're thinking about Christian McCaffrey.
05:55And I'm not going to talk anyone out of Christian McCaffrey.
05:57But somewhere after that, or if you don't want McCaffrey, I know someone would say Jackson Smith and Jigba here.
06:03But I think, you know, the defenses are going to try to take him away first and foremost.
06:08James Cook's an excellent pick.
06:09You know, I'm in the pros versus Joes.
06:11Mike, are you doing pros versus Joes this year?
06:13Next Sunday night, yes.
06:15Well, I'm in the eighth spot, and I'm going to call my shot here and say if James Cook is
06:19there, that's probably who I'm taking.
06:21All right.
06:21And because he – first it was touchdowns.
06:25Oh, well, what if Josh Allen, Bovar saw the touchdowns?
06:29Well, that happened last year.
06:30Cook had a drop-off in touchdowns.
06:32Then, like you said, he was just the rushing champion.
06:34And he was originally drafted, Dalvin's little brother, because of his receiving skill.
06:38Right.
06:39You know, that was kind of the headline.
06:40So, yeah, he can do it.
06:42He can be that number three running back behind – or number four, assuming McCaffrey stays healthy.
06:48And it's a good player and good offense.
06:50Sometimes it's just that simple.
06:52That eight spot, eight, nine, ten, that's the sweet spot for me in these drafts this year is maybe even
06:59as far as ten.
07:01Because who are your options?
07:02You know, you mentioned a couple, and that includes Smith and Jigba if the running backs go, which is great,
07:07I think.
07:08But you've got, you know, Gentry and, you know, even A-chan and then Jefferson and Lamb.
07:14Holy cow, they're not even picked before that this year.
07:16You're going to get two of those guys.
07:18If you're picking tenth, you're going to get two of those guys.
07:20So, I think that's probably – I picked first this year in pros versus Joes, which I think will probably
07:25be Bowers in tight end premium.
07:28But I think –
07:28I endorse that.
07:29You do?
07:30Okay, that's good to hear.
07:31But ten.
07:32Ten's pretty rich.
07:33Nine, ten this year for me.
07:36Yeah, well, and hey, I like to say every strategy works if you take the right players.
07:41But I do agree with you.
07:43You know, a guy like CeeDee Lamb was a player taking in the top four or five until he had
07:48a couple of injury-riddled seasons.
07:50So, that makes a lot of sense.
07:53And then I do think there's a drop-off somewhere around 15 to 18.
07:57You know, I'm looking – I'm glad, honestly, that at eight I have a better shot of getting, say, Drake
08:03London or Kenneth Walker.
08:04Because somewhere around the end of the second round, I think there's a drop-off or there's a plateau.
08:10And the values stay similar all the way into the fourth round.
08:14And I know this about you, or I think I do.
08:16You don't want Barkley.
08:18No.
08:19And, I mean, this is interesting because I was really using it more to endorse Javante Williams.
08:24But, look, I think there are three offenses, Baltimore, Washington, and Philadelphia.
08:29They're all putting first-time play callers, first-time offensive coordinators.
08:34I think between the three of them, there's six years of coaching experience.
08:39I mean, Declan Doyle maybe has three or four.
08:41The point is that there's a lot of hopium.
08:46I know that Kevin Petula was terrible for the Eagles.
08:49But, look, this is a team that had their legendary offensive line coach, Jeff Stallone.
08:53He's not with the team anymore.
08:54They traded away their best wide receiver.
08:56However, they're switching to more outside zone running, which is not Saquon Barkley's forte.
09:01He was studying Todd Gurley to try to do a bit of a software update for the outside zone running.
09:09Tank Bigsby, honestly, is going to look better in that mode of the running game.
09:13And they're putting Jalen Hurts under center.
09:15And a lot of stuff we heard in the offseason is he didn't want to be there.
09:18I mean, who's to say this is going to work?
09:20Who's to say this is going to be any better than last year whenever Saquon Barkley, I think, was running
09:25back 17?
09:27So I know he had that great year a couple of years ago, but I feel like he's swimming upstream
09:30this year again.
09:32With Sigmund Blum, the excellent footballguys.com, I do a lot of my research and reading fantasy football on that
09:40site.
09:40Mike Schoep and the Bulldog here.
09:42Back to DJ Moore, then.
09:44Is he a steal at the 5'6"?
09:46Are you like, you know, if you're this way about what this is all going to add up to, I
09:52think you'd probably really want him.
09:53Yeah, I think between Cook, Allen, Moore, and Kincaid, you don't want to miss out on all four.
10:01And pairing up two or even three of them, I'm okay with that.
10:06There's other attractive wide receivers around that time.
10:09Like if you said it's DJ Moore or Mike Evans, ooh, that's tough.
10:12You know, they're super excited.
10:13Devontae Adams.
10:15Now, Devontae Adams, I'm out on.
10:17I think the fact that the Rams were so eager to try to find a number three wide receiver, they
10:22were in on A.J. Brown.
10:23And I still think the Rams are a team that's very likely to trade for a receiver at the trade
10:29deadline.
10:29You know, I think this is an all-in team.
10:32And I think they give us a lot of signals that Devontae Adams was basically a goal linebacker for them.
10:37And I think that they know that he's not the player he once was.
10:41Terrence Ferguson becomes really interesting at the end of drafts because of that.
10:44The tight end could be basically a number three receiver while they try to figure this out
10:49because they definitely wanted to improve their wide receiver group in the offseason.
10:53You mentioned Kincaid.
10:55How much attention will you and everyone that's, you know, in this field be paying to how much he practices?
11:05Like the injury, I know you've got to do that with everyone, but Kincaid is especially, like I'm hyper-focused
11:12on how healthy he is.
11:13He's had two, if not three, years of just leg problems.
11:18I think it's two.
11:20And just, it feels like it's one or the other.
11:24Either they are too crowded in the part of the field they want to use him so his snaps are
11:29limited,
11:30or he's so one-dimensional they only feel like they can put him on the field in passing situations
11:35that are absolutely passing situations, and that's it.
11:39I just, the snap count to me has got to go up at some point.
11:43I just don't know if he's ever going to be healthy enough to do it.
11:46But maybe this is the year.
11:48You're right, Bulldog.
11:50You're right to focus on that.
11:52And if we see him practicing regularly, then I know we joke about best shape of his life.
11:59But really, this is the best shape of at least his NFL life.
12:02And his first five games, he came out of the gate.
12:05And snap count or not, when he's on the field, he's on the field to be a target.
12:09So, it's routes run, or even the percentage of the times that he's targeted on his routes run.
12:15And I think that what he did in his first five games only increased the trust.
12:20And, you know, it also created bigger plays in the middle of the field.
12:24And D.J. Moore is going to help with that also.
12:26So, all of these things tell me that if he's healthy, he's going to be a top-five fantasy tight
12:31end,
12:31like he was while he was healthy last year.
12:33It was only when his snap counts, his injury, needed to be managed.
12:38Now, on the other side, we hear he tweaks his knee in practice, and he's out for a couple of
12:41weeks.
12:42We're right back where we started.
12:44Tight end for me.
12:46I'm trying to think of some needless comparison to, like, being at a farmer's market or something.
12:51Like, there's always something good.
12:53Almost always.
12:54Like, in the middle, I can get a little sketch.
12:57But Bowers-McBride, Loveland, Warren, Fannin, Pitts.
13:01Like, there are each run into Kincaid territory, Tucker Craft, Laporta.
13:06As you go through the draft, it seems like there's always, and in FFPC, where they host pros versus Joes,
13:11you get a point-and-a-half per catch at that position, which ups everybody.
13:15And then you even mentioned Ferguson.
13:16I can't shut Davis-Matic up about Ferguson and Gunnar Helm and these guys at the end.
13:21So, a little bit less so in the middle, like round 11 or thereabouts.
13:26But, you know, even Jake Ferguson is somebody that you can talk yourself into as a prize.
13:32So, tight end is one where, maybe this is always true, Sigmund.
13:35I would defer to you on this.
13:36It's one where it's really maybe just more about, like, all right, how much do you want to invest in
13:41the position versus what else is out there?
13:44How do you like to play tight end this year?
13:46You're right to say, be flexible.
13:49There's a lot of potential right answers.
13:51Same thing goes for quarterback.
13:54Same thing goes, honestly, for wide receiver.
13:55I think running back is the one position where you don't want to have to count on both of the
14:02classic zero running back strategy.
14:03I just think that you're really potentially in trouble, especially with Jonathan Brooks.
14:08He's going to be coming up the board now.
14:10And what I mean by that is not taking a running back, say, in the first five or six rounds.
14:14But otherwise, you can be patient.
14:16You can let the draft come to you and know as you pass sort of like exits on the freeway,
14:22okay, well, I just passed the George Kittle,
14:24a Dalton Kincaid exit.
14:26So, like you said, the next one up might be, you know, Jake Ferguson or Mark Andrews.
14:32Whatever it is your plan is, you can be flexible.
14:35And one of the things I want to really stress while I've got your wonderful audience attention is look at
14:41that first three or four rounds of your draft,
14:44and you're getting an insight into the psychology of the people you're playing with, and then you can anticipate.
14:49You know, you can kind of put a chip down on the table of, hey, they're going light on running
14:54back.
14:54I feel like I could take a value running back right now, but there'll probably be values three or four
14:59rounds later, too,
15:00because what they did in the first few rounds is going to show you how your draft might be skewed.
15:05So I think, again, that flexibility gives you the ability to adjust based on what you learn early in your
15:11fantasy football draft.
15:12I like this farmer's market thing.
15:14Are you with me?
15:15Don't buy the first greens ever.
15:16The fruit and vegetables don't look so great.
15:18Oh, look, there's a bakery.
15:19Oh, a brewery.
15:20Oh, a wood-fired pizza place.
15:21All right, I'm good.
15:23And no explosive diarrhea either.
15:25I might go the other order there, but yes.
15:27Whatever.
15:28That point you just made also really applies to quarterback, too.
15:31Like you talk about these expert tournaments.
15:34I mean, experts are so excited to not, to push quarterback.
15:38Yeah.
15:39They just hate drafting one.
15:40You know, I was watching the ship chasing guys, my buddies there, have a main event draft,
15:46and they couldn't say no to Jaden Daniels.
15:48And maybe Jacob Sanderson, one of them said,
15:50you know what's going to happen.
15:52You know what's going to happen.
15:54It's going to be three or four rounds from now, and we're going to see all the quarterbacks.
15:57We like them all, but we already did it.
16:00And so, I mean, you don't want to be shut out on a guy, but I think that's one where
16:05the top players like to just sort of flex their muscle by waiting, you know.
16:10I mean, I've done this.
16:12I've got Jalen Hurts in the ninth round.
16:14Daniels in the ninth round.
16:15Like, oh, it feels strong like bull.
16:17Look at me.
16:18I've got, you know, these picks.
16:19But then, you know, you could even, you mentioned Malik Willis, Sigmund, you could even wait
16:23longer and be okay.
16:24Right.
16:25Right.
16:25I call it taking the tank to E, you know.
16:28Let's see who can really get it all the way down before we see a gas day.
16:32I'm telling her, I'm on the summertime road trip time, right?
16:36And the point is that, like, the way you described it, how Jacob described it, that you're foregoing
16:42the opportunity to take values later.
16:45So, you can do a test when you're on the clock of, am I okay with, I mean, this is
16:51what our
16:52football guy, the draft dominator football guys basically does for you.
16:54It's thinking ahead and telling you, you better pick this position because next time you're
16:59up, this position is going to dry up or this other position still has viable options.
17:03And you can say that about a quarterback through your entire draft.
17:06Now, in certain scoring systems, six-point pass, touchdowns, you know, quarterback is
17:10more important and it is a high-scoring position.
17:13But I think that, especially in these big field tournaments where you're trying to have the
17:17best team out of thousands and not just 12, taking Trevor Lawrence or taking Jared Goff,
17:25who has one outdoor game between week five and 16, you know, I mean, you can put together
17:33a quarterback through, like, Frankenstein parts with Jared Goff.
17:37Maybe you just look at the games.
17:39I'm going to, I just gave him an article idea.
17:40Like, look at the games where you wouldn't want to play Goff.
17:42Find someone with the best schedule, say, in the quarterback 15 to 25 range and just
17:47pair those up and you might get the same kind of production.
17:51So, creativity at quarterback is something, like, you don't have the luxury to do, say,
17:55at running backs and stock up on running backs and wide receivers early and kick quarterback
18:00down the road.
18:01But, you know, the nature of fantasy football is if you say, no, I'm taking Josh Allen in
18:04the third round, that's also a potential right answer.
18:07Man, Goff is living well.
18:09Last year he had, like, a whole season where he only played indoors almost.
18:12Somehow these division, Lambeau and Soldier Field come at the bookends of his schedule.
18:17He's got that, you said it, the stat, or, like, the bulk of the season, he's only playing
18:22indoors, and the one outdoor game he has in that stretch is in Miami.
18:26So, like, you don't have to worry too much about Goff.
18:30One, we have a couple minutes here, Sigmund, if you do.
18:33One player, not only is an interesting one, but even, like, right now with some news yesterday
18:37is Malik Neighbors, where you know there's a super high ceiling, if the offense clicks
18:43especially, because of how great he was as a rookie.
18:46But most people have been drafting like they don't expect him to play right away.
18:51Yesterday, the Giants said, or it was reported anyway, that he would likely not start the
18:55season on the pup list.
18:57Does that do anything for you?
18:59Not really.
19:00I think that, number one, that's not confirmed.
19:04You know, he has to pass his physical.
19:06Number two, I'm not hearing a strong change in the tenor of, will he be 100% to start the
19:13season?
19:13And what I mean by that is, no one's saying he's 100% going to play week one.
19:18So, I still think that based on what we were hearing, guys, as early as, like, March, there
19:23seemed to be murmurs coming out of the Giants, like, yeah, Malik Neighbors recovery,
19:26you know, that's not a sure thing, and we then had heard, you know, there was some
19:30additional issues, and when you know that, that's something that, until we actually see
19:38him without restrictions on a practice field, it's hard to just dispel that.
19:43And guys, I'm not so sure about Jackson Dart and Matt Nagy and John Harbaugh.
19:49I'm not sure.
19:50Remember, on the play that Neighbors got hurt, if Dart has a weakness, it's throwing downfield
19:54on the sidelines, and that play was, like, a ball, I think it was a ball that was errant
19:59going over the sideline, and that's when Neighbors got hurt.
20:02I'm not really sure even the Neighbors' strengths and Dart's strengths line up, and I'm not sure
20:08that the Giants' offense is going to look smooth out of the gate anyway.
20:13So, I'm probably not taking Neighbors unless I see him fall into the fourth round.
20:19Now, that's not going to happen.
20:21When is your pros versus Joe's draft?
20:24Sunday night.
20:25This Sunday night?
20:26Sunday at 8 o'clock Eastern.
20:27It's the first one.
20:28I love getting in the first one, Mike, because I want to get in before anybody has any track
20:34record of other drafts.
20:35I think it's a chance to, one last chance to get the draw.
20:39Love it.
20:39Pete Overzet is in that one.
20:41FFPC, Eric Balkman, they stream all of them.
20:44Which, I being vain, like I am, I have to watch.
20:47I have to have it on when I'm drafting, and then I have to watch it immediately back after
20:51I'm done.
20:52I've often done that, honestly.
20:55And Sigmund is kind of the goat in that tournament.
20:57Very good.
20:58Well, I loved your energy today.
20:59Always a treat to talk to you, Sigmund.
21:02Enjoy the rest of your summer.
21:04Yeah, absolutely.
21:05You guys do.
21:06And I always look forward to this.
21:08I mean, I feel like, guys, we've been talking for at least a decade.
21:12I hope we can do it for at least another decade.
21:13I can't place the year because it's a preseason game.
21:16If it were a regular season game, I would know.
21:18Right.
21:18But my first time with you was in the booth at the Bills before a preseason game, like
21:25week one, some Thursday night.
21:26I think I was on the beach, or maybe the year after that.
21:30And guys, you've been on the air with me.
21:32I've been on the air with you when I was in a car accident when my wife was driving.
21:35You remember that?
21:36Yes.
21:36We've had quite the set of memories together.
21:39We've had a time, yes.
21:40I've been on the couch.
21:41Maybe we both end up on the couch together.
21:43Bulldog and I both is sort of like a roundtable.
21:46Yeah.
21:47Let's make it happen because we all could use some therapy.
21:51Ten more years.
21:53I'll sign up for sitting here when I'm 71, I suppose.
21:56You said that.
21:57You're on the air.
21:58What else am I going to do?
21:59Okay.
22:00That just was set.
22:01It was an announcement.
22:03It's only so much golf you can play.
22:04Right.
22:05There's a Friday news dump right there.
22:07Yeah.
22:08Thank you, Sigmund.
22:09All the best.
22:11Great pleasure.
22:12Thanks, guys.
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