Is a second Cold War already upon us? This compelling discussion delves into the escalating tensions between the United States and China, exploring potential flashpoints and the implications for global politics.
Discover what defines this new era of geopolitical rivalry. We examine the precarious situation surrounding Taiwan and draw parallels to historical crises, highlighting the significant risks involved.
Explore the challenges faced by nations like Brazil in navigating these superpower dynamics. Can countries maintain neutrality, or will they be forced to choose a side? The economic realities and political landscapes are complex.
Gain insights into Brazil's unique position, balancing crucial economic ties with China against its place in the Western Hemisphere. This strategic balancing act comes with its own set of costs and pressures.
We also touch upon the evolving political trends in Latin America and Brazil's distinct path. Understand the internal political dynamics and what they mean for the country's future.
Finally, explore Brazil's untapped potential in the artificial intelligence revolution. Learn how strategic investments in areas like data centers could reshape its economic future.
#ColdWar2 #USChina #Geopolitics #Brazil
Discover what defines this new era of geopolitical rivalry. We examine the precarious situation surrounding Taiwan and draw parallels to historical crises, highlighting the significant risks involved.
Explore the challenges faced by nations like Brazil in navigating these superpower dynamics. Can countries maintain neutrality, or will they be forced to choose a side? The economic realities and political landscapes are complex.
Gain insights into Brazil's unique position, balancing crucial economic ties with China against its place in the Western Hemisphere. This strategic balancing act comes with its own set of costs and pressures.
We also touch upon the evolving political trends in Latin America and Brazil's distinct path. Understand the internal political dynamics and what they mean for the country's future.
Finally, explore Brazil's untapped potential in the artificial intelligence revolution. Learn how strategic investments in areas like data centers could reshape its economic future.
#ColdWar2 #USChina #Geopolitics #Brazil
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00:00First of all, you argue that the United States and China are already engaged in a second war.
00:06What even would mark this to an open conflict?
00:13And how close are we to that point?
00:16Well, George Orwell coined the phrase Cold War back in 1945,
00:20and he defined it as a peace that is no peace.
00:24And his observation was that nuclear powers can't fight wars in the old fashioned way because the stakes are too
00:32high.
00:32So you end up in this peace that is no peace.
00:35I think that is roughly where China and the United States are.
00:39Could they end up in a hot war?
00:42Maybe the most obvious place that this war could begin would be Taiwan.
00:47China says Taiwan belongs to China.
00:50The United States says that it preserves or reserves the right to stop China taking control of Taiwan.
00:57So that's the obvious flashpoint.
00:59In the same way that the flashpoint of Cold War I, the first Cold War, was Cuba.
01:04It was an island close to the United States.
01:07The Soviets tried to put missiles there.
01:09And that was the worst crisis of the first Cold War.
01:12So you could have the worst crisis of the second Cold War over Taiwan.
01:16That's the biggest risk, I think, for the next few years.
01:20And countries such as Brazil are trying to maintain close relations with both United States and China.
01:27So in a second Cold War, will that position remain possible?
01:34Or will Brazil eventually be pressured to choose a side?
01:38It's very difficult to be non-aligned in a Cold War.
01:43Lots of countries tried to do this in the first Cold War.
01:47India, for example.
01:49And India still is non-aligned in the second Cold War.
01:54You can't really say that India is an ally of the United States.
01:57That's simply not true.
01:59And I think Brazil is in a somewhat similar position now.
02:02It clearly has such close economic ties with China that it makes sense to have good relations.
02:09On the other hand, it's in the Western Hemisphere.
02:12And the Trump administration says that is America's backyard.
02:16And the tension, I think, between President Trump and President Lula stems from this difference.
02:23That Brazil is economically oriented towards China, but politically it's in the Western Hemisphere.
02:29Is it impossible to maintain this?
02:31I don't think it's impossible, but it's expensive.
02:34Brazil is obviously under significant U.S. tariffs.
02:38It would be nice if Americans decided on free trade for the Americas, but that seems very unlikely.
02:44But I don't see a way that Brazil just gives up its relationship with China.
02:49It's too economically important.
02:51So Brazil is doomed to be caught in the middle.
02:53It's doomed to be non-aligned.
02:55The good news is that Brazil is a long way from the battle zones.
02:59It's a long way from Eastern Europe.
03:00It's a long way from the Persian Gulf.
03:02It's a very long way from Taiwan.
03:04So although it's a difficult situation politically, the risks to Brazil are much, much less than the risks to, say,
03:12the United Arab Emirates.
03:13I would rather be in São Paulo than in Dubai right now.
03:17But this relation is not impossible to maintain.
03:23Due to the president, we will have a presidential election in this year.
03:30If we have, if Lula stays in the power or we have another president, something will change?
03:37Well, I am not an expert in Brazilian politics, so I should be very careful what I say here.
03:43My impression, and I base this on talking to Brazilian friends, is that President Lula stands a good chance of
03:50being reelected again.
03:51Because the Brazilian right is divided, and Flavio Bolsonaro is not a very popular candidate.
03:58If the right were to run a different candidate, then it might have a different result.
04:03But I think the way things are going, with Flavio Bolsonaro as the candidate of the right, then Lula gets
04:09reelected.
04:10Would it be better to have a conservative as president of Brazil?
04:14Well, in my view, yes.
04:15Everywhere else in Latin America, the trend is from left to right.
04:19This is most obvious in a country like Argentina, but we see it in Colombia, we see it all over.
04:24So Brazil looks like the exception to the rule, except that when you look at Brazil's parliament, the Congress, it's
04:31really moved to the right.
04:32So Lula is the kind of exception that tests this rule.
04:37It's partly because he's such a successful, effective politician, but I think it's mainly because the Brazilian right can't get
04:44its act together.
04:44It's the same as if we were in the United States and President Trump said, my son Don Jr. is
04:51going to be the Republican candidate in 2028.
04:54I mean, he could say that, but it would be a disaster for the Republicans and they would almost certainly
04:59lose.
04:59Talking about Brazil, China is the Brazil largest trading partner while the United States remains central to the investment and
05:09technology.
05:10What is the greatest strategic risk of Brazil's dependence of two rival partners' powers?
05:18Well, let me give you an example of what Brazil could do differently right now.
05:23Brazil has exceptionally cheap electricity. It's actually got a very, very low price of electricity.
05:29Where are the data centers being built? Not in Brazil.
05:33And that's partly because when you try to import semiconductors into this country, you pay 100% tariff.
05:40So Brazil needs to be more, I think, creative about how it plays the artificial intelligence revolution.
05:47This revolution is not about to stop. It's transforming the global economy.
05:52Brazil doesn't have an AI game. It could be a major player in the data center revolution.
05:59It's getting harder and harder to find places to build data centers in the United States.
06:04You've got cheap electricity. You've got, it seems to me, all kinds of advantages.
06:08So why is Brazil not taking advantage of this? Apart from anything else, if Brazil became a major source of
06:15compute,
06:16that would change its relationship to the United States.
06:19The United States would start to care more about Brazil if Brazil brought something like that to the table.
06:25So these are the kind of things you need to think about.
06:27The other obvious area is critical minerals, rare earth elements.
06:31The Chinese monopolize those. Brazil has abundant reserves.
06:35And so Brazil could be, again, making itself more valuable to the United States by developing those resources.
06:42And I think that would change the relationship between the US and Brazil.
06:46You know, for many, many years, Brazil was its own world.
06:49You know, protectionist, inward-looking, a world to itself.
06:53I don't think that's a credible policy anymore.
06:56Brazil needs to open up. It needs to be more engaged with the world.
06:59And it needs to exploit its advantages.
07:02And will leadership in artificial intelligence determine the next dominant global power?
07:08Well, artificial intelligence is transforming the US economy.
07:13It's transforming the Chinese economy.
07:16And everybody else is just trying to choose between the American models and the Chinese models.
07:22Because there really are no other players in this race, apart from maybe one or two European companies.
07:28So I think you've got to ask yourself, what role are we going to play in this world?
07:33Are we just going to stand and watch?
07:35I think that's a risky thing to do.
07:38Clearly, what is going to happen will be that sector after sector is transformed by this new technology.
07:44Finance is going to be transformed. We're here at a finance conference.
07:48Ten years from now, an enormous amount of what we do today with human beings is going to be done
07:52by artificial intelligence.
07:54So I think people here need to understand this is a global revolution.
07:58But it's being made in the United States and it's being made in China.
08:02And this is going to create another dilemma for Brazil.
08:05Do you go with the American tech stack? Do you go with the Chinese tech stack?
08:09My recommendation is go with the American tech stack.
08:13Because if you go down the Chinese path, that comes with strings attached.
08:18The Chinese models are loyal to Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party.
08:23This is a democracy.
08:25We're fundamentally committed to individual freedom and the rule of law in Brazil as much as in the United States.
08:31So the natural thing for Brazil is to gravitate towards the United States, not towards China, especially when it comes
08:38to technology as important as AI.
08:41But could Brazil build our own path without the United States, without China?
08:48The phrase that people like to use is digital sovereignty.
08:53I hear this in Europe a lot.
08:55The trouble is, it's not credible to me that Brazil, or for that matter Germany, could build its own AI,
09:04its own cloud computing, its own semiconductors, its own fabs.
09:10It's a tech stack, meaning it's a whole bunch of things you need in order to run large language models.
09:17You need a vast amount of computational power to train them and then even more to do inference.
09:22So I think it's too late for Brazil to say, oh, we're going to have our own AI company.
09:27We're going to have our own large language model.
09:29We can do our own anthropic.
09:31We can have our own open AI.
09:32That ship has sailed, just as it sailed for the UK, just as it sailed for Germany and all the
09:38European countries.
09:39So the question is, what relationship do you want to have in a world of US and Chinese large language
09:46models?
09:47The US models are probably superior, but they're also more expensive.
09:52The Chinese models are very accessible, but you then become part of China's AI empire.
09:57And that is a dangerous choice.
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