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An in-depth analysis of global geopolitical developments reveals a fragile diplomatic landscape as the United States and Iran struggle to revive stalled nuclear negotiations.
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00:15hello and welcome you're watching stagecraft with me gita mohan now can a ceasefire be real if the
00:21bombs never stop falling and when leaders talk peace but the ground reality screams war what
00:28exactly is being negotiated calm or control tonight two stories that seem separate but are deeply
00:34connected one is loud volatile and raising uncomfortable questions the other is quiet
00:41strategic and shaping the future in west asia president trump announces a breakthrough israel
00:47and lebanon set to talk after 34 years but even as he said that strikes continue and behind this
00:53conflict a bigger question is emerging is this just retaliation or part of something larger is
01:00israel quietly pushing its plan for greater israel and then shift your gaze to new delhi as the world
01:06is consumed by war india is preparing for a major diplomatic moment bringing africa to the table
01:13building partnerships and strengthening its role in the global south all this and more but first up the
01:19headlines the united states has threatened to resume bombing iran should peace talks not succeed united
01:26states of america also insists an ironclad blockade remains in place and not a single ship has been
01:32able to either exit or enter an iranian port since the blockade was put in place u.s has warned
01:39chinese
01:40financial institutions they could face sanctions if found facilitating iranian financial flows escalating
01:46pressure on beijing's economic ties with tehran the u.s and hamas held their first direct talk since
01:52the gaza ceasefire a delegation led by senior u.s advisor aria lightstone met chief hamas negotiator
01:58khalil al-haya in cairo prime minister narendra modi spoke to french president emmanuel macraw both the
02:05leaders discussed the situation in west asia and agreed on the need to urgently restore safety and freedom
02:11of navigation in the strait of humus u.s president trump spoke to the lebanese president after he
02:17refused to meet the israeli leadership this comes after president trump announced leadership level
02:22meeting following israeli and lebanese ambassadors meeting in washington on wednesday pakistan's army
02:29chief field marshal asemoneer is in tehran with a high-level delegation as pakistan tries to revive
02:35stalled u.s iran peace talks after negotiations collapsed in islamabad with no dates set for the
02:41next round and nuclear issues still deadlocked islamabad is stepping deeper into a fragile diplomatic
02:48balancing act between washington and tehran here is a report the ceasefire is fragile
03:03the diplomacy is fragile and now the region is watching pakistan step deeper into the center of one
03:14of the most dangerous geopolitical crisis in years pakistan's army chief field marshal asemoneer is in
03:27a high-level delegation has arrived with him their mission is clear but the stakes are far from simple
03:38to revive stalled u.s iran talks and to prevent a ceasefire from collapsing into another full-scale regional war
03:51this comes just days after marathon negotiations in islamabad failed to produce a breakthrough
03:58between washington and tehran a peace deal was not signed not even a timeline for one just exhaustion
04:07and unresolved red lines pakistan's foreign ministry has now confirmed what diplomats feared
04:17there is there is still no date set for a second round of talks the process is alive but drifting
04:24and the most explosive issue remains unchanged
04:29iran's nuclear program according to officials nuclear questions sit at the center of the deadlock
04:36between the two sides not just uranium enrichment levels but the entire future of iran's nuclear capability
04:45this means neither side is ready to blink the islamabad talks collapsed around three core disputes
04:53first iran's highly enriched uranium and nuclear future
04:58tehran insists it has right to enrich uranium and it rejects pressure as a tool of negotiation
05:07iran's position is blunt peaceful nuclear energy is non-negotiable but the level of enrichment
05:13remains on the table washington sees it differently for the u.s delegation led by vice president jt vance
05:22enrichment levels are not just technical details their strategic threshold red lines
05:31second the strait of hormuz one of the world's most critical energy choke points already tense already
05:39militarized in shadow form and now increasingly central to any potential deal a source briefed
05:46by tehran suggests iran could allow safer passage through parts of the waterway if a broader agreement
05:53is reached but that is conditional third israel and lebanon a parallel conflict theater now directly
06:04tied to u.s iran negotiations president donald trump has indicated that israeli and lebanese officials will
06:12hold talks in washington but that diplomatic track runs alongside an escalating regional battlefield not
06:20separate from it in washington the tone is unexpectedly warm white house press secretary
06:28caroline levitt described pakistan's role in unusually strong terms calling islamabad incredible mediators
06:37praising their efforts and confirming that washington wants communication to continue
06:43through pakistan's channel it signals trust and in u.s iran diplomacy trust is the rarest currency
06:54the pakistanis have been incredible mediators throughout this process and we really appreciate
06:59their friendship and their efforts to bring this deal to a close so they are the only mediator in
07:04this negotiate negotiation while there have been many countries around the world who want to offer their
07:09help the president feels it's important to continue to streamline this communication through the
07:14pakistanis and so that's what continues to take place but even praise does not equal progress because
07:22on the ground the conflict clock is still ticking a ceasefire already fragile is set to expire next week
07:30and if diplomacy fails again there may be no extension left to save it
07:37at the heart of everything is one unresolved question what is iran allowed to be a nuclear
07:45threshold state a strictly limited civilian program or something in between iran calls western demands
07:53unreasonable and unrealistic the united states calls iran's enrichment policy a threat that cannot be
08:02ignored neither side is moving enough and in diplomacy movement is everything for now diplomacy prevails but it
08:13survives in fragments asin muneer in tehran is not just another diplomatic visit it is a signal that the
08:22center of gravity in this crisis is shifting away from formal negotiation tables and into the hands of those
08:30trying to stop a war from restarting before the clock runs out with rudrishish kanjalal bureau report india today global
08:47over 100 billion dollars of iran's money is locked abroad frozen by sanctions scattered across global banks and now
08:54at the center of high stakes u.s iran talks why can't tehran access its own funds where is this
09:01money held and why does it matter so much right now here is a report
09:11there's one number at the heart of the us iran standoff right now 100 billion us dollars
09:19that's the estimated value of iran's frozen assets money the country owns but cannot access
09:25and as fresh talks between united states and iran unfold this issue is becoming a major sticking point
09:32so what exactly are these frozen assets and why do they matter so much let's break it down first
09:38what are frozen assets simply put these are funds often from oil sales held in foreign banks but
09:45blocked due to sanctions governments or institutions freeze them to restrict access usually for political
09:52legal or security reasons in iran's case this dates all the way back to 1979 after the islamic revolution
10:00and the us embassy hostage crisis since then decades of sanctions especially over iran's nuclear program
10:07have locked away billions of dollars second how much money are we talking about estimates suggest
10:13over 100 billion us dollars to put that in perspective that's roughly a quarter of iran's gdp and about
10:20three times what it earns annually from oil exports but here's the catch even if sanctions were lifted
10:27iran may not access all of it some funds are already committed to debts contracts or investments right
10:34now tehran is demanding at least six billion dollars be released as a starting point in negotiations third
10:40where is this money iran's assets are scattered across the world china holds at least 20 billion dollars
10:47india around seven billion dollars iraq roughly six billion dollars qatar about six billion dollars
10:53originally moved from south korea japan holds around 1.5 billion dollars the us itself holds about 2
11:00billion dollars and parts of europe like luxembourg also hold smaller amounts in short iran's money is
11:06everywhere just not in iran fourth why can't iran access it because of sanctions the us along with
11:14european allies has imposed multiple rounds of restrictions over iran's nuclear ambitions missile program
11:21and regional activities a brief thaw came in 2015 with the joint comprehensive plan of action
11:27when iran regained access to some funds but that changed in 2018 when donald trump withdrew from the
11:33deal and reimposed sanctions since then the assets have largely remained frozen fifth why does this matter
11:41now because iran's economy is under serious strain high inflation a weak currency a struggling energy sector
11:48and now war damage this hundred billion dollars isn't just money it's economic oxygen access to it
11:56could help iran stabilize its currency rebuild infrastructure invest in industry and calm public
12:01unrest it could also speed up post-war recovery finally the geopolitical angle for iran unlocking these
12:09funds is a priority for the u.s its leverage unfreezing assets could signal a shift a softer stance
12:15or a push for diplomacy but it could also trigger backlash especially if seen as rewarding tehran
12:21without firm guarantees on its nuclear program so what's really at stake not just money but trust
12:28leverage and the future of u.s iran relations because in this negotiation hundred billion dollars isn't
12:35just a number it's the battlefield behind the battlefield with farhan khan bureau report india today global
12:42india's most significant diplomatic gathering with the african continent in nearly a decade is on the
12:48horizon the fourth india africa forum summit is expected to be held in new delhi between the 28th and
12:55the 31st of may with heads of state and government delegations set to descend on the capital around 18
13:02hotels have already been booked to accommodate visiting leaders and preparations are well underway in the
13:08national capital the india africa forum summit first held in the year 2008 is the principal platform for
13:16political and economic engagement between new delhi and african nations previous editions were held in
13:22new delhi in 2008 in addis ababa into nt11 and again in new delhi in 2015 the last edition was
13:30held
13:30a full decade ago making this summit one of the most anticipated diplomatic events of the year
13:36this edition is expected to take place shortly after the brics sherpas meeting and will seek to align
13:43africa's agenda 2063 framework with india's own development priorities with a focus on digital
13:50infrastructure green initiatives and co-development models across sectors generations of indians and africans
14:02india's have traveled to each other's land in search of their destiny or by the force of circumstances
14:16either way we have enriched each other and strengthen our ties we have lived in the long shade of
14:29colonialism and we have fought for our liberty and our dignity
14:39we have struggled for opportunity and also for justice which is the african wisdom described
14:49is the prime condition of humanity trade is front and center on the agenda india is currently africa's
14:59third largest trading partner with bilateral trade reaching 103 billion dollars in 2024-25
15:06a 17 percent jump year on year that figure underscores just how rapidly the economic relationship has grown
15:13key sectors under discussion will include health education agriculture information technology maritime
15:21security and defense cooperation the last of which includes the supply of patrol vessels and training
15:28aircraft to african partners critical minerals will be among the most closely watched discussions at the summit
15:36africa holds roughly 30 percent of the world's critical mineral reserves resources that are central to india's
15:43industrial technological and green energy ambitions african nations in turn are actively seeking indian
15:50technical expertise in mining and extraction creating the conditions for a natural partnership built
15:56on mutual benefit and complementary strengths supply chain resilience and energy security are also expected to
16:03feature prominently given the ongoing disruptions to global markets driven by geopolitical tensions
16:10energy cooperation is another major pillar of the summit africa accounts for nearly 60 percent of global
16:16renewable energy potential a staggering figure that the continent has barely begun to tap
16:23despite possessing some of the world's strongest solar resources solar power contributes only
16:29about three percent to africa's total electricity generation capacity today the gap between potential and
16:36reality is vast india's proven track record in scaling renewable energy domestically makes it a natural and
16:44credible partner for africa's solar ambitions and the summit is expected to lay the groundwork for meaningful
16:50long-term collaboration in the space the summit also carries significant broader geopolitical weight it arrives
16:58against the backdrop of ongoing global tensions disruptions to food supplies volatile energy markets and
17:04a shifting world order in which the global south is increasingly finding its collective voice discussions are
17:12expected expected to reinforce that solidarity explore local currency trade mechanisms between india and african nations and provide fresh momentum
17:21to multilateral groupings including the brics
17:25the african continental free trade area operational since the year 2021 will also feature prominently in deliberations
17:34the africa fta that's africa fta represents a combined market of 1.3 billion people and according to a confederation
17:43of indian industry report
17:44africa's consumer and business spending could reach 6.7 trillion dollars by 2030 driven by rapid demographic growth and
17:53an expanding workforce the summit also follows a landmark moment for india-africa relations on the world stage
18:01under india's g20 presidency in 2023 the african union was admitted as a permanent member of the group a
18:08development that has fundamentally elevated the diplomatic standing of the continent and added new depth to new
18:15delhi's engagement with it india has consistently championed the voice of the global south in multilateral
18:21forums and fourth india-africa forum summit is expected to build on that legacy with concrete
18:28commitments and an expanded cooperation framework beyond high-level diplomacy and commercial negotiations
18:35india has been quietly building lasting goodwill across the continent in recent weeks new delhi has
18:42extended food aid to three african nations facing acute humanitarian need burkina faso one of the
18:48continent's most vulnerable nations grappling with poverty and widespread displacement received 1 000 metric
18:55tons of rice from india to support marginalized communities ministry of external affairs spokesperson
19:00randeep jaswal described the assistance as a reflection of india's solidarity with people
19:05in need and its enduring partnership with global south nations earlier this year india sent 1 000 metric
19:13tons of rice to malawi following a devastating drought triggered by the el nino weather pattern the drought
19:20affected over 4 million people and prompted the malawian government to declare a state of national emergency
19:28india's response was swift mozambique 2 received indian assistance 500 metric tons of rice along with emergency
19:35supplies including tents sanitation kits and medicines after the country was battered by severe floods
19:42india's taken together these gestures tell a larger story india's africa strategy is not purely transactional
19:50it is relational built on long-term trust as much as long-term interest as new delhi prepares to host
19:57the
19:58continent's leaders next month it arrives at the table not just as a trading partner or an investor but as
20:05a nation that has
20:06shown up in moments of crisis that perhaps more than any bilateral agreement or investment pledge
20:12is the foundation on which a durable india-africa partnership must be built
20:19that's all in this edition of statecraft but before we go we leave you with this another
20:24narrative battle this time in pixels a lego style video out of iran is now going viral it shows a
20:31miniature
20:31donald trump at a podium sweating holding up a bold victory sign only for it to flip to i am
20:38a loser
20:38as flames engulf him take a look enjoy goodbye and take care
21:05and take care
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