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It's a tough schedule to start the year, and the win/loss total is fairly low for the Commanders, but are they being underrated?
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00:00But I wanted to start the show as we are closing in on training camp now
00:03with a projection for the commanders' win total this season.
00:07Danny, this came from PFF.
00:09They basically ran all the numbers.
00:12This is data.
00:13This is not anecdotal or arbitrary, right?
00:16This is very much about the analytics.
00:19And they spit out wins for every single team.
00:22So just as an example, the outliers,
00:24they've got the Rams at 11.13 wins in their projection.
00:28Okay, you can't win .13 games.
00:31But they're saying when they spit out 1,000 data points,
00:34the average is that the Rams win 11.13 games.
00:37Best team in football.
00:38The worst team in football is the Cardinals in the same division at 4.33 wins.
00:44So just a quick note on this.
00:45These tend to be kind of the watered-down win totals, right?
00:49Where you go, is the best team in the NFL really going to win only 11 games?
00:53No, that's not the answer to this.
00:54It just kind of shows you the range, right?
00:56So that's kind of an important distinction here.
00:58Yeah, and it would speak to as well.
00:59Like if you ever look at win totals at a sportsbook,
01:02you're never going to see 13.
01:04Someone's going to win 13 games.
01:05Someone will, yeah.
01:06That's not how win totals work.
01:07The Rams, actually, coincidentally or not,
01:10at 11.5 wins is number one right now at those same sportsbooks.
01:14Teams like Seattle, 10.5 wins.
01:16Buffalo, 10.5 wins are right there in that vicinity.
01:19But I just think looking at how they did this,
01:21when you see the Rams, the Seahawks, the Bills at the very top,
01:25and you see the Jets, the Dolphins, and the Cardinals at the very bottom,
01:29projected between 5.4 and 4.3 wins,
01:32it feels to me like whatever machine they're using to punch their numbers in
01:35is a fairly accurate machine.
01:38Like, there's nothing crazy in there, right?
01:40Yep.
01:41Washington, they have coming in at 7.66 wins.
01:47Strength of schedule, according to their data, 6th in the NFL.
01:547.66 wins.
01:56That matches pretty closely what we're seeing at sportsbooks,
02:00where Washington is projected at 7.5 wins,
02:03and you've got to go over or under that total.
02:05But they've got them narrowly, very narrowly,
02:08ahead of what the sportsbooks think they would take the over
02:11on 7.5 wins, as would I.
02:13But what do you make of 7.6 and change for the Commanders?
02:16Yeah, that's the bucket they're in.
02:18I mean, look around at their peers.
02:20A just-okay New Orleans team, an improved Giants team,
02:23an Atlanta team with questions,
02:25Carolina coming off of their playoff performance.
02:28I put that in air quotes.
02:30You know, the Steelers are just ahead of them.
02:32The Colts are just ahead of them.
02:33You're part of that just-okay bucket.
02:36And that stands to reason to me.
02:37So you took a defense that was beyond horrendous,
02:40and you improved it.
02:41How much?
02:42TBD.
02:43We don't know.
02:43My guess is, if you move up 10 or 11 spots,
02:47that's a pretty good improvement.
02:49That's a pretty good job,
02:50but that's not good enough to overcome
02:51this really difficult schedule,
02:52some of the good quarterbacks and offenses
02:54they're going to face.
02:55And I don't think they did near enough on offense,
02:57and this kind of stands to reason.
02:58Again, you're going to get off to such a rough start,
03:00because, again, the first half of your season
03:02is such an arduous schedule.
03:04The back half lightens up,
03:05but are you playing those games on the level?
03:08In other words, if you're 3-8,
03:10it kind of doesn't matter who's on your schedule anymore.
03:12You know what I mean?
03:13Like, are you playing out the string?
03:14It's not the same as being 8-3 with a lot to play for.
03:16Yeah, when you think about 7 and change wins,
03:18but not getting to 8 as a projection,
03:20you kind of go, okay, well, how did they get there
03:22with the offseason they had,
03:24the talent they have at quarterback
03:26and a few other positions?
03:27I think it has to start with the early schedule.
03:30The early schedule is brutal.
03:33I mean, this is Avengers doomsday stuff.
03:36You're playing at the Eagles, at the Cowboys,
03:39and then you're hosting the Seahawks
03:40in those first three weeks.
03:42So you're talking about the favorite in your division
03:46and a Super Bowl contender, according to most,
03:48in the Eagles.
03:49The team that I actually think
03:51should be the favorite in the division
03:52and the clear second team
03:53in everybody's pecking order, the Cowboys.
03:55And then the defending champions,
03:57who I just told you PFF has,
03:59as the number two team in the NFL.
04:03That's the bad part of this, okay,
04:05that you open with a schedule
04:07that would suggest if you should go 1-2 probably,
04:11and you're hoping to get the one,
04:12like 0-3 would be disastrous,
04:13but also understandable.
04:15But you're trying to get to 1-2.
04:16If you go 2-1, you're doing cartwheels.
04:18We're throwing parties.
04:19Everybody's really happy.
04:20We're ready to rock and roll.
04:21You're probably a playoff team
04:22based on the schedule lightening up
04:24and already being over .500.
04:25But here's the positive side of that, too.
04:28If you're going to have that stretch of schedule,
04:31wouldn't you rather it be right at the beginning
04:33when nobody's seen your offense yet,
04:36nobody's seen your defense?
04:37Part of the reason they're only having
04:39the five open practices, in my opinion,
04:4111 if you count,
04:42some access for season ticket holders,
04:44but one of the reasons I think
04:46they're going to keep things
04:47very close to the chest,
04:48we have not seen a lot of the Durante Jones,
04:50Vikings looking, you know,
04:52linebackers mugging A-gap stuff
04:53and spring practices.
04:55I think they're going to kick it 2012,
04:57where Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan,
04:59and that offense never once ran
05:01read option, pistol, 50 series
05:04at a single practice.
05:05I covered the beat.
05:06I was at the facility every single day
05:09at every single practice.
05:10Now, remember, we get kicked out
05:12after a certain period of time.
05:13They stretch, then you can go.
05:14Exactly.
05:15But we never once saw the offense
05:18that they ended up running.
05:19Not one snap of it.
05:21We saw Robert Griffin running occasionally,
05:23but it was never at a pistol,
05:25read option, what they call their 50 series.
05:27I think there's going to be some of that,
05:29like subterfuge, hiding,
05:31and if that's the case,
05:33how do the Eagles prepare for that?
05:35How do the Cowboys prepare for that?
05:36There's going to be a little tape,
05:37but you're still going to have a trick or two
05:38up your sleeve for Seattle.
05:40I'm not pretending like they're going to win
05:41all three of those games,
05:42but I would rather play those teams
05:44when they don't know your schemes yet
05:45than play them in eight weeks.
05:47I hear that.
05:48My counter is my hope for beating those teams
05:51that are just different levels,
05:53different grades ahead of Washington.
05:54Like they're in different tiers.
05:56That's legit competitive Super Bowl potential teams.
05:59I'd rather have the attrition of the year get them
06:02and maybe you're playing them without Sam Darnold
06:03or maybe you're playing Dallas without Dak
06:05later on in the year.
06:06Not that you're rooting for injuries,
06:08but that's kind of my thought process there.
06:11I just don't think you match up on it.
06:12Maybe you could steal one
06:13and that's kind of the hope of that early season,
06:15but there's no good time to play a great team,
06:17but maybe the timing of it to your point
06:19could work out for you.
06:20But I think it's six, one, half dozen of the other.
06:22Like, you know, I don't want to play
06:23any of those teams right after the bye week,
06:24for example, and they do.
06:25They have Philadelphia out of their bye week,
06:27but out of Washington's bye week rather.
06:29But I don't know.
06:31There's no good moment where I go,
06:33God, I can't wait to play Seattle
06:35when you're aspiring to get to that level.
06:38I understand that, but you can acknowledge
06:40you'd rather, the benefit of them
06:42not seeing your scheme yet is beneficial.
06:45Sure.
06:46Yeah, if that's the case,
06:47if that's indeed what's happening.
06:48Well, how would it not be the case?
06:49Well, as soon as you play a game.
06:51I'm talking about the Eagles in week one.
06:53There you go.
06:53I'm talking about the Cowboys in week two.
06:55You're not getting through the entire playbook
06:57in the first game and 47 snaps or whatever.
06:59You know, ideally, you will have enough efficiency
07:03and be on the field enough
07:04that you get to run a bunch of your stuff.
07:06But yeah, by week three,
07:07will the Seahawks have seen everything?
07:09Sure.
07:09But a lot less of it, I guess,
07:11is my point than in week 11
07:12when you've kind of mastered it a little bit more.
07:14I don't know.
07:15I just, if somehow, someway, they start well.
07:18Like they are two and one after those three games.
07:21I don't know how they get there.
07:22But one of the things that happens pretty frequently
07:24that hasn't been talked about much
07:26is sometimes after the Super Bowl,
07:28there's a hangover.
07:29Sure.
07:29Sometimes the team that was really great
07:31takes a step back.
07:32The quarterback of that team is Sam Darnold.
07:34He's above bad games all of a sudden?
07:36This guy's not even in the top 10 in the league
07:38in most rankings.
07:38And it feels like he's kind of been
07:40on a magical carpet ride.
07:42The Eagles have had their own issues, certainly.
07:43Although I would say this is an even year,
07:45which, you know, the last two of these,
07:46they've had 14 wins.
07:48They themselves, by the way, have new schemes.
07:50But they've got issues.
07:50So that works against, like, my theory
07:52as to Washington hasn't seen their offense,
07:54their defense.
07:54I happen to think their offense
07:55is a terrible fit for their quarterback.
07:57And I think it's going to be a real struggle early on
07:59for Jalen Hurts
08:00as they go with, like, a Ben Johnson-y
08:02throw to the middle of the field,
08:03play-action, pop-pass-style offense.
08:05I don't know how Hurts is going to operate there.
08:07But I am, color me curious on that.
08:09But as I'm thinking about it,
08:11and I'm looking at this number,
08:12I think this feels about right.
08:15And it's hard to argue with data as it is, right?
08:17It's numbers, it's analytics,
08:18it's not a human being.
08:19But 7.7 will round up.
08:22Wins for Washington.
08:23So my question to you, Danny,
08:25and my question on the phones would be,
08:28would you go over or under,
08:30we'll say, 7.5 wins?
08:31That's the sportsbook total.
08:33That's where PFF is at.
08:34It's 7.6 plus.
08:37800-636-1067 and make your case.
08:40Because that's right at the range.
08:41I mean, you see most of the books
08:43will have at 7.5,
08:44some a little bit lower than that.
08:45I think this is probably an 8-win roster
08:47with a 6-win schedule.
08:49So my average of the 2 is 7.
08:51So I'll go under, kind of begrudgingly.
08:53But I could absolutely see an 8-win scenario.
08:55I could certainly see them getting the 9 wins
08:57if everything breaks right.
08:58But nothing does.
08:59I mean, this is sports.
09:00This is the injury you can't imagine getting over.
09:02You'll have to.
09:04The bit of bad luck.
09:06The astounding gut punch.
09:08The glorious moment that breaks for you.
09:10Everything kind of averages out, etc.
09:12To me, this is probably the right range.
09:15So I'll say under with kind of a cringe.
09:17I'll hold my nose and put my quarter in.
09:19Are you building into your record
09:23that Jaden Daniels misses extensive time?
09:25Not extensive.
09:26Some.
09:27How many games?
09:30Three.
09:32So you think Daniels plays 14 games
09:34and they still win 6 games?
09:35Yeah.
09:36Man, would that be a big letdown.
09:387 is what I've got.
09:39So I've got just under the...
09:41Okay, I thought you went under...
09:42Yeah, I think that's a 6-win schedule,
09:438-win roster.
09:44So you're going 7-10, basically.
09:46Gotcha.
09:48That would be very surprising to me.
09:51If you tell me right now
09:52they go 7-10 or worse,
09:54I'm not shocked.
09:55But that means Jaden Daniels got hurt.
09:58If he plays 14 or more games
10:00and they still only win 7 games
10:02with an improved defense,
10:04I'll be absolutely shocked by that.
10:06I'm going over 7-plus.
10:08I think there's a better chance
10:10they win 10 than 6,
10:12just as an example.
10:13I think I've got them at 9-8,
10:15which means I'm fairly comfortably
10:17over 7-1.
10:19It gives me a game-and-a-half cushion.
10:21The only caveat I have
10:23and I've had all off-season is
10:25one of my big concerns
10:26pre-the draft
10:27was Daniels' durability.
10:29And last year happened.
10:30And I just had to relive it
10:31on the Netflix quarterback show.
10:33Yeah, we're doing it again, aren't we?
10:34Very painfully.
10:35But assuming health,
10:37I think a revenge tour is loading.
10:39If he's on the field,
10:41I think he's going to play
10:42at a really high level.
10:42And if he does,
10:44and your defense
10:45is as improved as I think
10:47it's going to be,
10:48both based on scheme
10:49and talent upgrade
10:50up front off the edge,
10:52this is a much more likely
10:55a 10-win team
10:56than a 6-win team.
10:57I try not to get too much
10:59into strength of schedule
11:00before this season.
11:01One of the reasons I don't do the,
11:03we always go back and forth
11:05with the junkies
11:05over the win-loss exercise.
11:07I just think it's so futile and silly,
11:09and I get it.
11:09Most of the things we do on the radio,
11:10you could sum up that way.
11:12But we just have no idea
11:13when you play the Bengals
11:15in Week 11,
11:16is it Joe Burrow
11:17or Joe Flaccoon?
11:17Yeah, seriously.
11:18Which Joe is quarterbacking them?
11:20You know,
11:20when you're at Minnesota
11:21in Week 16
11:22in that flexed time slot game,
11:25is Kyler Murray
11:26the comeback player of the year
11:28and, you know,
11:29the talk of the league
11:30because he's balling out
11:31under Kevin O'Connell
11:32who's the coach of the year
11:33for the first place
11:34Minnesota Vikings?
11:35Or have they already gone
11:36back to J.J. McCarthy
11:37and they fired Kevin O'Connell
11:39or their offensive coordinator
11:41or whatever?
11:41Like,
11:42both things are on the table,
11:43right?
11:43So,
11:44it just doesn't make sense
11:46from a strength of schedule
11:48standpoint
11:48to look at last year
11:49and try to have a feel
11:50for how hard the schedule
11:52is going to be.
11:52I got to look into the mirror
11:54and the mirror tells me
11:55better defense,
11:58better team,
11:59the deepest they've been
12:00with this group for sure.
12:02If the quarterback is
12:03who we think he is
12:05and he's healthy,
12:06there's really no reason
12:08they wouldn't win
12:08more than seven games.
12:09I hear you.
12:10I mean,
12:11to me,
12:11that your point
12:13about the strength
12:13of schedule
12:14I think is a good one.
12:17And here I am
12:17about to do it.
12:18So, you know,
12:19again,
12:19you could certainly
12:20poke holes and make fun.
12:21It is that time of the year.
12:22What else we got?
12:23Their schedule,
12:24I think,
12:24is rated,
12:24I think it was like
12:25sixth most difficult.
12:26I even think that's
12:27too low of a ranking
12:29because we're looking
12:30at a Dallas team
12:31that went 7-9 last year.
12:32That goes into the ranking,
12:33right?
12:34Where they go,
12:34ah,
12:34they're pushovers.
12:35These Colts are 8-9.
12:36You mean the 8-2 Colts
12:38when they had a mediocre
12:39quarterback helping?
12:39But a team in the AFC West
12:40could say the same thing.
12:42The Chiefs last year
12:43won six games,
12:43I think,
12:44or something stupid like that.
12:45They're 6-11, yeah.
12:45They're going to win
12:4612 games this year.
12:47So someone has them
12:48on the schedule twice.
12:49The Raiders,
12:50like I can cancel that out
12:52with other teams
12:52if that makes sense.
12:53It does.
12:54But here's where
12:55I'm going with that.
12:56And then the Giants
12:57were a disaster last year.
12:58We all think they're
12:58going to be much improved.
12:59How much?
13:00Proof will be in the pudding.
13:01But they're not pushovers.
13:02They're not,
13:02you know,
13:03and you play them twice.
13:04So when you sort of look at it,
13:05they're your easier games,
13:07quote-unquote.
13:07They're your cupcakes.
13:08Everybody else
13:09is a playoff team
13:10and really, really good.
13:11It's a lot more
13:13Rams,
13:14Eagles,
13:15Niners,
13:16Jaguars
13:16than it is
13:17Raiders and Browns
13:19for this schedule.
13:20So to me,
13:21the games where you kind of go,
13:23I mean, again,
13:23last year,
13:24Cincinnati was a joke
13:24because Joe Flacco
13:25played most of the time.
13:26To your point,
13:26if it's Joe Burrow
13:27and the receiver twins,
13:30I'm not that confident
13:31we win 41-39.
13:33You know what I mean?
13:33Like,
13:34to me,
13:35this is matching up
13:36and I think everybody's
13:37underrating how tough
13:38their schedule's going to be,
13:39especially because
13:39they're not that great.
13:40If they were great,
13:41I wouldn't care.
13:42Bring on all comers.
13:43Yeah,
13:43they're not great.
13:44There's no doubt about that.
13:45But the quarterback's
13:47supposed to be great
13:47if he's healthy.
13:48And if he is,
13:49I think then they got a chance
13:50to hang with these teams.
13:51They played a Joe Burrow-led
13:52Cincinnati
13:52when he was cooking
13:54with the twins.
13:54That's right.
13:55They beat them
13:55in 2024
13:56in a shootout
13:57with a worse defense
13:58than they have now.
13:59Like,
14:00we've seen it.
14:01We know what it looks like.
14:02They've hung with teams
14:04like the Rams.
14:05That goes both ways.
14:06You're right.
14:06The schedule against a team
14:08like the Bengals
14:08is harder than it looks maybe.
14:10If Matt Stafford's back
14:12starts barking
14:12at 40 years old,
14:14now all of a sudden
14:14you're playing against
14:16who's their back?
14:17Carson Wentz or something
14:18in Week 9?
14:19Oh, yuck.
14:19That goes in both directions.
14:21And the years, by the way,
14:22where it works out really well
14:23and they're playoff bound
14:24and they're having a great year,
14:25you get three or four
14:26of those built in.
14:27You just can't plan on those.
14:28But let's start the show
14:30right there on the phones.
14:32PFF went through
14:34every single team
14:35and put together
14:36a win projection
14:37via their data.
14:39They've got the commanders
14:40coming in
14:41at 7.66 wins,
14:45which is basically
14:4811th worst in football.
14:50And it's in a bucket there
14:51with a lot of the
14:527.5 win projected teams
14:53at Sportsbooks.
14:55By the way,
14:55they like them
14:55the second most
14:56of the five teams
14:57with 7.5 wins.
14:59They like the Colts more
15:00and then the Saints,
15:01Giants, and Falcons less
15:02of the teams that are
15:03kind of in that same tier.
15:04Yep.
15:05Would you go over
15:06or under 7.5 wins
15:07for the commanders?
15:08Grant and Danny
15:09on the...
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