00:00Well, Europe imported records amounts of Russian liquefied natural gas during the first half of the year,
00:06despite the EU's plans to end its reliance on Russian energy.
00:09New figures show Russia's biggest LNG export project is still sending large volumes of European customers ahead of the tougher
00:17restrictions due next year.
00:19Nearly 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas arrived in Europe from Russia's YAMEL LNG project during the first six
00:27months of 2026, up by 18% on the same periods last year.
00:32Well, France, Belgium and Spain were the largest European buyers.
00:36And this all comes as the European Union prepares to further tighten restrictions on Russian gas in April.
00:43Impulse under short-term contracts were banned.
00:45And from January next year, the ban will expand to long-term contracts.
00:50Then all remaining Russian gas imports will be phased out, putting pipeline gas by late 2027.
00:57Anna-Maria Yala-Makarevich is a Europe energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
01:04Anna, great to have you on the show.
01:05So I guess the major reason for the increase is front-loading.
01:10Can we say that?
01:12Yes, we can say that.
01:13And it's not the first time that it happens.
01:16When we remember the Russian LNG transshipment ban that came into effect in March, I think last year, if I'm
01:25not wrong.
01:25Then we saw a huge increase on transshipment prior to that.
01:30Then also with the transit via Ukraine, the contract was going to expire end of December 2024.
01:41So we saw a huge increase also on transit of Russian gas via that pipeline.
01:47So we noticed that.
01:49It happens all the time.
01:51The moment a ban is coming into effect, we see a huge increase of flows.
01:57Until while it is valid, while it is legal to do it, it's going to happen like that.
02:01And we know the European Union is planning to phase out LNG imports from Russia by the end of 2027.
02:07Do you think before that we will see more front-loading?
02:10And how do you think that will impact the market?
02:14I think we will see.
02:15Sadly, we will see.
02:16Because as we have noticed, a huge increase this first semester of Russian LNG imports still is legal.
02:26Those are private companies that have signed these contracts with Yamal LNG.
02:32They are allowed to do it, still allowed.
02:35So then we are going to see it.
02:36We are going to see more.
02:38We need to fill in the storage.
02:40Right now it's 51.9%.
02:43So gas storage is lower than in previous years.
02:47So they need to refill it too.
02:49We are going to now enter into winter months later.
02:52So we could see an increase on Russian LNG imports.
02:56And the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, I believe, has been part of the reason too.
03:01So how vulnerable is Europe's LNG supplies to the wall in the Middle East now?
03:08I think, yes, it has affected.
03:10But we would have seen this regardless of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked.
03:17We would have seen this situation happening, the increase on LNG imports from Russia.
03:22Having the Strait of Hormuz block right now, still that increases that situation.
03:29That puts a strain on the situation.
03:32But even though we don't import that much right now from Qatar, it's around 8%.
03:37We used to import before like 12%, 15%.
03:41Now it was around 8%.
03:44Still is 20% of the global LNG that is out of the market.
03:49So that is the situation right now, that we are going to be competing with other markets in the world
03:56for this LNG from other suppliers.
03:58In Europe, there are some countries that could be more affected by the Qatari LNG, like Italy, Belgium, Poland.
04:06They support more Qatari LNG than other countries in Europe.
04:10Thank you, Anna, for that analysis.
04:13That is Anna Maria Yala-Makarevich from the Institute for Energy, Economics and Financial Analysis.
04:19Thank you so much for your insight.
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