00:00Now, Laurie Muller-Wurter is the lead analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
00:09Getting China's emissions to peak and decline is, of course, the first and most important step to bringing global emissions
00:17down.
00:19And so realizing that it's a huge contribution.
00:23Obviously, China's emissions have already stabilized for the past couple of years.
00:27So this is hopefully more about securing that stable plateau and eventual decline rather than stopping growth, because that's already
00:37been achieved.
00:38Yeah, exactly. I mean, growth is a really big issue here because China wants to keep growing.
00:44It wants factories to continue working at peak performance.
00:47It wants to continue with its electric vehicles and, of course, data centers and the demands of AI.
00:54Is that going to become increasingly difficult, though, to get that balance right?
00:59Rapid energy demand growth has been a challenge for China for the past two decades.
01:04But China's shown that it's more than capable of deploying enough clean energy, whether it's solar, wind, nuclear, to meet
01:14that demand growth.
01:15As long as the enabling conditions are there, that's a challenge that China is equipped to face.
01:23From the perspective of economic growth, clean energy sectors, such as the manufacturing of solar and electric vehicles and batteries,
01:33are a key economic driver.
01:35So I would argue that rather than conflicting goals, making sure that clean energy growth continues and emissions come down
01:47as a result is a prerequisite for meeting the economic goals.
01:50When it comes to vehicles and transport, by 2030, China wants 30 percent of all vehicles on the road to
01:59be electric.
02:00The current figure is around 12 percent. So that's quite a leap in just four or so years.
02:07What impact could that have on China's transport emissions?
02:11Very quick calculation says that a 20 percentage point increase in the share of electric vehicles could cut transport sector
02:20oil consumption by the same 20 percent.
02:23And transportation uses about half of all the oil in China.
02:27So it could deliver a very significant reduction in overall oil consumption, which then definitely helps with climate goals, also
02:36helps massively with energy security.
02:38As you mentioned, carbon emissions have been leveling out in China for a little while now, but really hitting these
02:45goals and making the transfer of transformations.
02:48What impact is that going to have not only on the global emissions picture, but also in terms of the
02:56example that China is giving the rest of the world?
03:01China is, of course, the largest industrial power and concentration of heavy industry in the world and economically seen as
03:13a success story.
03:15So being able to peak and decline emissions will show that a major emerging industrial power can be powered by
03:27clean energy.
03:28I think also for it will also enable China to take a stronger, more proactive role in international climate policy,
03:38because China won't have to defend increases in its own emissions anymore.
03:44They will be able to say that they have gotten on top of this problem.
03:46It will also be able to do this problem.
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