00:00Jonathan Bruegel is a power sector analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
00:07Great to have you on the program again, Jonathan.
00:10So, looking at all of this, what's the biggest takeaway for you from this detail on the energy strategy?
00:19It's the scale and speed of the program.
00:22To take a reference, China is building more solar capacity in one year than Europe has in total in 2025.
00:32So, we're speaking of massive amounts, gigawatts scale, tenths of gigawatts built by China in solar and wind.
00:39And what's to be noticed is that China is doing it while keeping all online as a buffer.
00:45That's not very ideal for the climate, but it's a very pragmatic choice, which makes the transition easier.
00:52You say it's easier because...
00:54The takeaway is that China is looking at this, doing this in a transition as an industrial strategy, really.
01:03Yeah, so it's interesting. So, it's still leaving room for coal while dramatically expanding renewables.
01:09Do you think that's going to be difficult to manage and puts maybe energy security or economic growth at risk?
01:19It's extremely difficult and China can see it from Europe.
01:23Two countries in Europe struggling and having struggled with that are Germany.
01:27Germany is trying to achieve its 2038 coal phase out and is having to build new gas plants to cope
01:35with this target.
01:36And the UK has been strolling since its last coal plant was decommissioned last year.
01:43And we see prices going up when there's no wind.
01:46So, yes, it's definitely an issue.
01:49But China can learn from, for example, from Europe.
01:54And the risk is not that it's going too slow.
01:56The risk is going too fast under the system.
01:59The grid could not absorb so much renewable capacity in a given year.
02:03It's interesting you talk about China learning from Europe.
02:06I'm wondering what the rest of the world can learn from China because they're making huge investments in clean energy,
02:11electricity grids, electrification.
02:14What impact do you think it could have beyond China, on global energy markets, on the cost of clean technologies?
02:23Well, the impact is already happening.
02:26With China having collapsed the price of its solar power production,
02:33now renewable projects in Europe and Africa, for instance, have become much cheaper,
02:39which is a plus because now developers can achieve their project easier way and faster.
02:44The downside is the dependency on Chinese material, which is not desirable for Europe and Africa.
02:53So, in a way, China is accelerating the energy transition, but it's also creating some geopolitical tension with other continents.
03:02I mean, China has this advantage of being able to plan decades ahead.
03:09Is there something other countries can learn from that long-term approach, even if their political systems make it harder
03:16to stick to a strategy?
03:19Yes, it can, but selectively. And the answer is not to copy the Chinese model, but to have a model,
03:27which many countries don't.
03:29Many countries don't have a model to develop their energy system.
03:36And Europe has actually been successful in developing energy programs.
03:39We can name the French nuclear program in the 70s and 80s, and the German air surrender, which is partially
03:45successful.
03:46And why was it successful? It's because these policies remain in place wherever it was in power.
03:53So, I would say the key takeaway that democracy can take from China, even if not everybody will agree with
04:00what I would say,
04:01but my point is that the energy infrastructure debate should be removed from politics and left to energy experts.
04:09That's my view.
04:11Love it. Jonathan Bruegel at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
04:16Thank you so much. Have a great weekend.
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