00:00You were listening to what Honor was just saying about those same patterns repeating themselves,
00:06President Trump coming out and saying something, and then we go back to a state of plateauing when
00:11it comes to the negotiations. Do you forecast that to be the case for how long, for the remainder of
00:16the year? Yeah, thanks for having me, Abir. I think we will see some form of, we'll see some periods
00:30of
00:30violence, some frictions, but I don't think we're going to see a long-term resolution. At best,
00:37we might see a return to the MOU. But even if there are sanctions lifting in the future relating to
00:48Iran, I think the hardliners in the United States might limit the benefits to Iran. So I think these
00:56dynamics, we're still navigating towards a new normal. And the buffers are pretty low out there
01:05in the global economy. So I think the markets are still looking a little bit optimistic on this.
01:13So, Rachel, you talk about the new reality, and this is a notion that's shared by a lot of people
01:19that talk about the new norm, how things are going to look like. So how do ship owners now start
01:24to
01:25make their way in the Strait of Hormuz with this new reality? But do you think that in a few
01:31years'
01:31time, the Strait of Hormuz would lose its strategic importance as a shipping group, as a major shipping
01:37group?
01:39I do think there'll be less volume. We're already seeing commitments from the UAE and Saudi Arabia
01:47in particular. They have used the bypass they invested in already. They're trying to do that as
01:54well, especially Saudi Arabia, for other goods, not just oil. So I think, you know, we had 20 million
02:01barrels a day of oil and oil products going through the Strait of Hormuz. End of February, right before
02:08this phase kicked off, we might see lower volumes. But there's a lot of infrastructure and logistics,
02:16whether it's Jebel Ali, whether it's different ports. I think there will still be some reliance.
02:22Ultimately, though, it's not just about Hormuz and its strategic imperative, but also about whether
02:30there are risks from Iran and other regional actors to other infrastructure. For example,
02:37the UAE Port of Fujaira has emerged as a very important vehicle, but it can be reached by Iranian
02:44missiles. So at the end of the day, in a context of escalating war, which is still not off the
02:50table,
02:51that remains a risk. But in the region, as well as around the world, I see more commitment to
03:00alternate pipeline routes, even if those upfront costs are large. And I'm watching, for example,
03:08what will happen with Iraqi supplies. Will there be pipelines that go through Syria, especially now that
03:14it's finally coming off the state sponsor of terrorism list? These things won't happen overnight.
03:21Yeah, but Rachel, just going back to the Strait of Hormuz itself, just going back to the Strait of
03:28Hormuz, and it is really at the heart of all of this, right? Because during the MOU discussions,
03:32we're seeing the nuclear component take a little bit of a backseat. That's Trump's main goal.
03:36So in a nutshell, now, as things stand, who do you think has the upper hand in this conflict? Is
03:43it
03:44Iran or is it the United States?
03:49It's hard to tell. Iran definitely thinks they have the upper hand. Trump is sensitive to higher
03:57energy prices. This new escalation is coming after energy prices have come off, or at least
04:03crude oil prices have come off. Oil products are still in short supply and getting worse,
04:10in part because of dynamics in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But that's another story. And ultimately,
04:18you know, we're seeing Iran precedent and look for oversight and influence over the Strait
04:25in the future. And that's going to be something, I think, that will lead to lasting risk premia
04:32changing in the region and maybe persisting in some of these discounts that are offered
04:42in the region. And in particular, I'm watching, you know, you asked about tanker owners. I think we'll
04:51continue to see some of these dark transfers and a subset of vessels that are maybe more willing to take
05:00the risks and use of the same or some of the same evasive techniques that Iran has been using for
05:07some time.
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