00:00Dive deeper into the outcomes of that NATO summit, we can bring in Jamie Shea, former NATO security advisor who
00:05spent many years here in the headquarters of NATO in Brussels.
00:09Jamie Shea, thank you so much for joining us. Curious to hear your view. Was this a successful NATO gathering?
00:15I think, yes, ultimately it was. And good morning to you, too. And thanks for having me on the show.
00:21It ended better than it started. Clearly, Trump was in a more friendly mood towards the alliance in the private
00:28meeting.
00:28And I suppose that's the one that really counts than in some of his public remarks.
00:32For example, he did say that the U.S. is staying in the alliance.
00:35Somebody like Trump hearing that is not always to be taken for granted.
00:41He signed off on a communique, which may not be the most interesting thing for the media, but it's important
00:47for diplomats.
00:48The official text where the U.S. committed itself to NATO Article 5 collective defense and called it ironclad.
00:54These were the kind of things that the allies wanted to hear.
00:57And, of course, he also showed some satisfaction, unsurprisingly, with the fact that his message on defense spending has been
01:06heeded.
01:07Mark Rutter and the other allies were at pains to point out that over the last year, Europe and Canada
01:12have spent 11 percent more on defense.
01:16The figure now is about an extra $250 billion over the last two years on military budgets.
01:22So, although five allies out of the 32 today are on that 5 percent target, so there's still a long
01:29way to go.
01:31Allies have until 2035, but all of them practically with a few laggards are moving in the right direction.
01:37So, the summit was designed, of course, to be a Trump-pleasing summit by showing that the responsibility for NATO
01:44is moving both financially and militarily onto Europe.
01:48So, I think, yes, you know, people were expecting a rough ride with Trump.
01:51You always get that.
01:52But, you know, as they said about Wagner's music, it's better than it sounds.
01:57And I think it ended up on a more positive note than people had feared when Trump first arrived in
02:03Ankara.
02:03As you saw, months of work, of course, goes into organising these summits.
02:07As you say, officials are happy for now.
02:09But, of course, Trump was very critical of allies like Spain and the UK.
02:13Is this really the end of NATO, do you think, as we know it?
02:16No, I don't believe so.
02:17But, you know, whether Trump doesn't like NATO or does, the messaging changes.
02:22I think, you know, if you look at the trend line, it's been pretty clear now and for a decade
02:27or so already,
02:28which is that the United States is going to stay in NATO, which is good, but it's going to do
02:32a lot less in terms of holding up the collective defence than allies were used to during the Cold War.
02:38For example, just at the NATO Defence Minister's meeting a couple of days before the Ankara summit,
02:43the U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegsef, announced a number of significant reductions in U.S. contributions to the
02:49NATO full structure.
02:51You know, only one aircraft carrier now instead of two, one strategic bomber instead of two, far fewer drones, far
02:58fewer fighter aircraft.
03:00And Europe has had to scramble to sort of find in its own arsenals those capabilities to replace the U
03:07.S.
03:07We have the specter of 5,000 U.S. troops leaving Germany.
03:12They may, some of them may go to Poland, but it's not certain.
03:15I mean, the good news is that the United States continues to uphold nuclear deterrence for Europe.
03:20That's important and stays in the NATO command structure.
03:23But everybody now is talking about NATO 3.0, whereby they mean a NATO which is going to be run,
03:30financed, resourced, operated.
03:33You know, Europeans in the front line, much more a European show and less an American show than the NATO
03:38we've all been used to from our fathers and grandfathers.
03:43And just on Iran, though, we saw, of course, the war flare up in the last couple of days.
03:49Trump says the ceasefire is over.
03:51Where do we go from here, Jamie Shea?
03:53Well, I think we need to wait and see, because clearly the talks with Iran have not yet been broken
03:58off, even if they're not going anywhere fast.
04:01I think, you know, Trump knows from opinion polling in the United States and even the Senate passing the war
04:07powers resolution that this war is not popular at home, even with his own Republican MAGA base.
04:14The Americans want him to end the war and he's got the midterm elections coming up.
04:18So, you know, I don't think he voluntarily wants to get back into a full scale war against Iran.
04:24And for Europe, of course, it's very bad news, because if Trump, on the one hand, wants Europe to spend
04:29all of this extra money on defence, the last thing you want to do is tank the European economies with
04:34higher oil prices and inflation and higher debt costs, which are going to make it so much more difficult to
04:40fund defence.
04:42And, you know, Europe was sort of hoping for a breathing space with the oil price going down to $60
04:46a barrel.
04:47It's now up 5 percent.
04:48You know, who knows where it's going to go?
04:50And therefore, all of the kind of pressures that we had a couple of months ago, including, of course, things
04:55like, you know, fertiliser, not getting out of the Gulf to feed hungry people in Africa.
04:59All of those difficult scenarios are going to return.
05:01But let's wait and see, because I think it's Trump's interest to keep this memorandum of understanding going and talks
05:08with Iran going.
05:10And therefore, you know, both sides may choose after, you know, a flurry of activity to de-escalate once more.
05:16OK, Jamie Shea, always a pleasure to have you on the programme.
05:18Thank you so much for joining us live this morning.
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