00:00Sean Bell is a retired air vice-marshal and military analyst. He joins us now from Ankara.
00:07Sean, thank you so much for your time. So much has happened just in one morning,
00:12but what is the mood like at this NATO meeting?
00:17Yes, good afternoon, Sally, from a very sunny and warm Ankara.
00:21Yeah, it's interesting because I think there's a lot of people dancing like a cat on a hot tin roof,
00:26absolutely paranoid about what President Trump will actually do.
00:29After all, fundamental to NATO is unity.
00:32And at the moment, President Trump comes in.
00:34He was very angry that NATO didn't even get involved and support him in Iran and the war in Iran.
00:39That's left a very painful legacy for President Trump.
00:43It's also, as you've been reporting, you know, the amount of money that the members of NATO have been spending.
00:49And he's used the example of Sir Keir Starmer, who's meant to be the sort of right-hand man,
00:54has always been the Trump whisperer between America and Europe, both physically and metaphorically.
00:59But actually, their plans are still no higher than about 2.7 percent.
01:04And therefore, there'll be a lot of criticism because the UK is a wealthy country.
01:08Europe is a wealthy bloc.
01:10But the harsh reality is its choices.
01:12It's one thing politicians saying that defense is number one priority.
01:16It's quite another doing something about it.
01:18And I think President Trump could take a few potshots at people for not actually meeting their stated commitments.
01:23Yeah, it's interesting because if you listen to Mark Rutter, he says this hum of activity needs to become a
01:30roar,
01:31suggesting and saying, really, that there's no time to waste in upgrading and pumping up lots more money into this
01:38military machine.
01:39Do you think it's inevitable that it has to happen?
01:42Well, I think what Mark Rutter's doing is that it's one thing saying you're going to increase defense spending to
01:475 percent.
01:48And let's be clear, it's meant to be 3 percent by 2030, 3.5 percent by 2035.
01:53And then this is extra 1.5 percent, which is somewhat creative accounting because it's talking about resilience and the
01:59like.
01:59But the harsh reality is, as President Mark Rutter says, you know, there's been a massive increase over the last
02:04year of 20 percent of defense spending.
02:07The challenge, of course, is you've got to convert that money into military capability.
02:11At the moment, if you went down the shops with all that money, you can't actually buy ships, tanks and
02:15airplanes.
02:16So this is a real clarion call behind the headlines of the defense leaders, national leaders here in Ankara.
02:23There's a whole load of forums going on with lots of industries there as well, because they need positive indications
02:28that this money is going to start to flow.
02:31And somehow you've then got to coordinate Europe because you don't want all the countries producing tanks and none producing
02:37fighter jets.
02:38That is going to be a real challenge for NATO over the coming few years.
02:42President Zelenskyy urgently needs these missile interceptors.
02:45We've seen Kiev getting an absolute hammering in the last week.
02:49Do you think he's going to get them?
02:52The short answer is no.
02:53I think he will get some from Europe.
02:56It's very difficult to see President Trump not prioritizing restocking his own arsenal first.
03:02But I have to say what's interesting is why is Russia increasing this pounding of civilian targets?
03:07It's not a, from a military perspective, it doesn't actually advance his war aims at all.
03:11And almost certainly is more because he's getting frustrated at the lack of progress on the battlefield
03:16and the fact that Ukraine is having a lot of success with its own missile striking energy infrastructure.
03:22I do think what's happening here, though, is that Europe is very firmly focused on supporting Ukraine.
03:28Trump has previously said, well, it's not a member of NATO.
03:31Why am I interested?
03:32This is on the European continent.
03:34It should be a European problem.
03:35What Zelenskyy is trying to do is bridge that gap, get Trump more on side with Europe.
03:40It is a bit disturbing that Trump allegedly had a 90-minute conversation with President Putin at the weekend.
03:46So it's a long way to go before you get Trump rounding in behind support for Zelenskyy.
03:52I want to ask you a bit more about NATO's plans to use European-made surveillance plans instead of those
03:57from the United States.
03:58Is that signaling a shift away from dependence on U.S. military hardware?
04:03What do you think?
04:05I think it is.
04:06I think you're absolutely right, Sally.
04:07I mean, I do think for many years we have been very dependent on Western technology that's been based in
04:14the U.S.
04:15And the U.S. has made a lot of money in exports.
04:16The challenge, of course, is that if we're going to stand up and be more self-sufficient, the challenge, of
04:22course, is getting defence industry in Europe.
04:24We've got some fantastic individual capability in technologies, innovation and the like.
04:28It just needs investment.
04:30And I think what we're seeing now is a very, very clear push that is America as trustworthy an ally
04:36as it was in the past?
04:37And therefore, how can we trust that it's going to be there when we need it?
04:40And I think it's very prudent that Europe steps up and starts to invest in its own national and regional
04:47capability.
04:47I think it's a really positive first step, really positive.
04:50Thank you so much.
04:51That's Sean Bell, retired Air Vice Marshal and Military Analyst, coming to us live from the NATO Summit in Ankara.
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