Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine to cement his legacy and restore Russia’s status as a global superpower. Instead, the war has strengthened Ukraine, weakened Russia’s influence, damaged its economy, and pushed former allies toward the West. In this video, we examine how Putin’s pursuit of personal glory has backfired, leaving Russia smaller, more isolated, and facing long-term decline. Subscribe to The Military Show for in-depth geopolitical analysis and military insights.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Russia Ukraine Invasion and Putin War Legacy
02:27 - Ukraine Drone Warfare and NATO Military Integration
05:08 - Russia Regional Influence Collapses in the Caucasus
09:38 - China Buys 50 Percent of Russian Oil
12:15 - Russia Economic Crisis and 15 Percent Inflation
15:18 - Will Putin Win the Battle of Donbas?
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#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/2caybA76
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Russia Ukraine Invasion and Putin War Legacy
02:27 - Ukraine Drone Warfare and NATO Military Integration
05:08 - Russia Regional Influence Collapses in the Caucasus
09:38 - China Buys 50 Percent of Russian Oil
12:15 - Russia Economic Crisis and 15 Percent Inflation
15:18 - Will Putin Win the Battle of Donbas?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/2caybA76
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NewsTranscript
00:00We sometimes wonder what Putin's dreams must look like, and we think we have a pretty good idea.
00:05What Putin wants, more than anything else in the world, is to be recognized as the man who made
00:11Russia great again. He wants statues, he wants people to speak to him in the same way as they
00:16spoke to the Tsars and Soviet leaders who oversaw Russia at its heights. Putin dreams of making
00:21Russia big, and he wanted Ukraine to be his key to doing it, but he failed. And all he has
00:26really
00:26done is make Russia smaller than it was before he invaded. Russia now faces something worse than
00:31defeat against Ukraine, a slide into irrelevance triggered by Putin's relentless ambition.
00:37Putin's entire vision of the world is built upon his own ego. For Putin, how people treat him is
00:42directly tied to how they treat Russia as a whole, as he attempts to position himself as the representation
00:47of everything that Russia is supposed to be. Understanding this simple fact explains so much
00:52of what Russia's president is trying to do in Ukraine. One of the goals, and perhaps the main
00:57goal of all, of the so-called special military operation was to put honor and glory on Putin's
01:02name in the eyes of the rest of the world. He believed that by conquering Ukraine, he could go
01:07down in history as one of the great Russian leaders, and by extension, Russia would become bigger
01:12and more glorious due to his achievements. It's egotistical, and it's ultimately driven by the fact
01:18that Putin has long felt that the West doesn't respect him or Russia anywhere near as much as
01:23it should. It's no coincidence that Putin highlighted NATO's expansion as one of his major issues when
01:29he invaded Ukraine. He'd been doing that for well over a decade before, not necessarily because he
01:33feared NATO. Putin has never believed that NATO would start a war with Russia. What he feared was
01:39that NATO's expansion would be tied to his own tenure as Russia's president. The West would have grown
01:44larger, and in Putin's mind, Russia's sphere of influence would have become smaller if he didn't
01:49do anything. For Putin, that situation could not be allowed to happen. He wants to be great. He wants
01:54to be revered. Putin wants to be the man that Russians point to in a hundred years as the man
01:59who returned his country to the heights of the Russian empires of old or the Soviet Union.
02:03The war against Ukraine was supposed to be the first step along this path to legacy.
02:08But what it ended up being was the noose that Putin wrapped around his own neck,
02:11as his desperate hunt for glory has done nothing more than cripple Russia,
02:16empower Ukraine, and create a future that will ensure that Putin ends up in their history books,
02:21only not for the reasons that he'd always hoped for. Let's look at what the war has done to Russia
02:26geopolitically, starting with the country that was and still is Putin's target, Ukraine.
02:32For Putin, the defeat of Ukraine would lead to Russia being considered the great power out of the
02:36big three of the US, China, and Russia. It would be the beginning of the resurgence.
02:40First would come the subjugation of Ukraine, securing its $15 trillion in mineral wealth,
02:46a massive territory bordering NATO, and the raw prestige of a conqueror,
02:50followed by remaining small territories in Europe once held by the Soviet orbit.
02:55That was the grand plan. But all Putin managed to do was light the fuse that resulted in Ukraine
03:00exploding into a global power unlike anything that Putin could envision.
03:04Look at Ukraine today and you see exactly what we mean.
03:08Russia has been exposed as a middle power that isn't on the same level as the US and China,
03:13and that exposure has come at the cost of Ukraine developing into a stronger nation
03:17than it ever would have been if Putin's army had just stayed out.
03:20Even now, after well over four years of fighting, the front line in Ukraine is relatively static,
03:25and Russia still has around 80% of the country to go if it's going to achieve Putin's vision.
03:31Through its drone diplomacy, Ukraine has become a military force to be reckoned with on the global stage,
03:36as well as in its own territory.
03:38Deals are being struck all over Europe as Ukraine ingratiates itself deeply into the NATO structure
03:43that Putin wanted to weaken, despite not being a member of NATO itself.
03:47In the Middle East, Ukraine is striking deals with the likes of Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
03:51and the United Arab Emirates, each of which lasts a decade, includes promises of money and oil,
03:57and has only been made possible because of the drones that Ukraine was forced to develop
04:01to fend off Putin's invasion.
04:03What was supposed to be an inevitable victory, even if it came later than Putin promised,
04:08developed first into a quagmire, and then into a war,
04:11that has empowered Ukraine and weakened Russia on the geopolitical stage.
04:15The Atlantic Council reports that Ukraine's military is now so impressive
04:19that its soldiers often perform better than their NATO colleagues during joint exercises.
04:24Ukraine is no longer the security burden that it was when Putin invaded.
04:28It's a contributor and a world leader in much of the technology that is purpose-built to defeat Russia.
04:34To Putin and his vision of a great Russia that mirrors the country of old,
04:38this is an outright catastrophe.
04:40A nation that was supposed to be little more than an addition to Russia
04:43has created the blueprint for stopping Russia in its tracks.
04:46Putin was meant to be the leader who launched Russia back into the stratosphere of geopolitical relevance,
04:52making it a bigger player than it's been for decades.
04:55But all he has really managed to achieve is the humiliation of a military
04:58that has been revealed as a paper tiger,
05:00and the collapse of Russian influence on a huge scale.
05:04And that takes us beyond Ukraine and into the wider ramifications
05:07of Putin's abject failure in the war that he started.
05:10Regions where Russia once held sway,
05:13backed by the seemingly indomitable might of its military,
05:16are now starting to turn away from Putin.
05:18We see this clearly in the South Caucasus.
05:21Once upon a time, Russia ruled this region.
05:23It did so for 150 years,
05:25and it still held an enormous amount of influence under Putin.
05:29Russia's leader was able to stoke the fires between nations like Armenia and Azerbaijan,
05:33promising protection and support to whichever suited Putin,
05:36all backed by the military that is now being torn apart in Ukraine.
05:40None of these tactics are working anymore.
05:43Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan collapsed
05:45after it was revealed that Russian police had tortured two Azerbaijani citizens
05:49to death during a crackdown in Yekaterinburg.
05:53That incident sparked arrests and accusations of Russian spying.
05:57Russia destroyed relations altogether in December 2024,
06:00when it shot down an Azerbaijani civilian plane,
06:03killing 38 in the process.
06:04But hey, at least Russia could still support Armenia
06:07as it engages in its own battles with Azerbaijan.
06:10Except that isn't really the case anymore.
06:12On June 8th, it was made official.
06:15Armenia's standing prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan,
06:18had won his re-election bid,
06:19defeating candidates supported by Putin
06:21and overcoming a Russian pressure campaign
06:24that included threats of ending trade relations.
06:26At one point, Putin made it clear to Pashinyan
06:29that the gas that Russia supplies to Armenia,
06:31which is supplied at $177.50 per 1,000 cubic meters,
06:36versus the European market prices of $600,
06:39would be under threat if Pashinyan continue to push for Armenia to join the European Union.
06:43None of it mattered.
06:45Azerbaijan has turned its back,
06:46and Armenia is continuing a march toward the west
06:49that has been slowly going on for years.
06:51There had been a massive recalibration in the Caucasus.
06:54It was only in 2020 that Russia played the role of peacekeeper
06:57to bring an end to the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan
07:01over who controls Nagorno-Karabakh.
07:04Now, around six years later,
07:06and after a disastrous Ukraine campaign,
07:08Putin has lost influence in both of these countries
07:11to the point where neither wants anything much to do with Russia.
07:14This is what we mean when we talk about Putin making Russia smaller.
07:17Every day that Putin continues the war in Ukraine,
07:20he moves Russia closer to geopolitical irrelevance.
07:23And they're so much more than the rise of Ukraine
07:25and the issues Russia has in the Caucasus to showcase that.
07:28But before digging deeper, this is The Military Show,
07:31and we make videos to show you how power really moves.
07:34If you haven't already, hit subscribe and then get back to the video.
07:38Russia's decline as a regional power may be most evident in the Caucasus,
07:42but we're seeing it all over Europe and Central Asia.
07:45The likes of Moldova, Georgia, and Kazakhstan
07:48have all received very clear reminders
07:50of just how dangerous it is to be situated close to Russia
07:53when a legacy-obsessed madman like Putin is on the loose,
07:57says Estonia's International Center for Defense and Security.
08:01Moldova is actively pursuing European Union membership,
08:04like Ukraine and Armenia,
08:05which is yet another example of Putin's war
08:07leading countries that Russia could once influence
08:10deeper into the embrace of the West.
08:12Other nations, such as Tajikistan,
08:14have seen Russia pull out weapons and troops,
08:16so they could be used in Ukraine.
08:18That sort of message doesn't go ignored.
08:20Russia is supposed to be the powerhouse in this war.
08:23If it's pulling out the protection that it's promised to other nations,
08:26then what does that really say about the country
08:27and what Putin has turned it into?
08:30Angering nations like Tajikistan and Kazakhstan
08:32is also a problem for Putin,
08:34as both are members of the Eurasian Economic Union
08:37that helps Russia to circumvent sanctions.
08:40If nations leave that union,
08:42we again see Russia's power base declining.
08:44That's the exact opposite of what Putin envisioned
08:47when he launched his Ukraine invasion.
08:49If the dream of greater Russia has been shattered by all of this,
08:52the pieces have been put together and turned into a nightmare
08:55when it comes to Russia on the global geopolitical scale.
08:58We mentioned protection a moment ago.
09:00Syria, Venezuela and Iran were also supposed to benefit from Russian weapons
09:04and the promise from Putin that Russia would work to protect their national interests.
09:09What do all three of these countries have in common?
09:11Russian, their leaders have been killed or deposed since the Ukraine war began
09:15and Russia didn't raise a finger to save any of them.
09:19Whether that was due to a lack of inclination
09:21or an inability to exert power,
09:23because it has none after years of brutal fighting,
09:25doesn't really matter.
09:26The message is still out there
09:28that Russia cannot protect those that it claims it will help.
09:31Russia's global prestige is at a low not seen since Putin took power
09:35and that clearly makes Russia smaller.
09:37However, it's not just waning geopolitical influence that is Putin's problem here.
09:42In some ways, he's actively losing control of parts of Russia
09:45that he controlled long before he started his invasion.
09:48Russia's Far East, in particular, is turning into a problem.
09:52Russia's Far Eastern Federal District accounts for 40% of Russian territory,
09:57despite only being home to about 8 million people.
10:00This also happens to be a region over which one of Russia's supposed allies,
10:03China believes it holds some claim.
10:06Now, we're not saying that China is going to invade Russia,
10:09even though there is now a clear power imbalance between the two nations
10:12that will also infuriate Putin.
10:14China is being cleverer than that.
10:16It's been growing its presence in Russia's Far East ever since Putin invaded.
10:20When European countries left Russia in protest at the invasion,
10:23China stepped up to the plate and replaced them.
10:25In doing so, it made Russia more reliant on China
10:28and opened the door for an influx of China's migrant workers into Russia's Far East.
10:33China now has special administrative regions
10:35and advanced special economic zones in Siberia,
10:38and the yuan has replaced the Russian ruble
10:40for all activities that Chinese companies conduct in Siberia.
10:44Again, this isn't likely to lead to some grand territorial annexation by China.
10:48But Beijing doesn't need to do anything like that.
10:51It's content to take advantage of Putin's growing desperation
10:53to exert its influence over Russia's Far East.
10:56Again, this is a result of Putin's failures in Ukraine.
11:00With his focus still on the three-day special military operation
11:03that has lasted over four years,
11:05Putin can do nothing but allow China to do what it wants
11:08because he knows that Russia doesn't survive without China's support.
11:12After all, China buys around 50% of Russia's crude oil.
11:15If that money goes away,
11:17then everything that Putin strives for crumbles to dust.
11:20This is the sorry situation that Putin now finds himself in.
11:24His quest to restore Russia to the status that it held
11:27during the height of the Soviet Union
11:28has only ended up making Russia smaller,
11:30literally, and geopolitically.
11:32When the Soviet Union was at its peak,
11:34Russia controlled 14 republics on top of its own territory.
11:38Compare that to what Putin has achieved
11:40since he launched his invasion of Ukraine.
11:42Ukraine itself,
11:43which was once the breadbasket of the Soviet Union,
11:45remains unconquered
11:46and is a stronger geopolitical force now than it has ever been.
11:50Nations in the Caucasus are turning their backs on Russia,
11:52making Russia smaller by virtue of lost influence.
11:56We're seeing similar tensions in Europe and Central Asia,
11:58and Putin can't even protect Russian turf in the Far East
12:01from encroaching Chinese influence
12:03that Russia has to allow
12:04if it's to stand any chance of turning things around in Ukraine.
12:07And there's one more way
12:08that the death of Putin's dream on Ukrainian soil
12:11has made Russia smaller.
12:12It's utterly ruining everything for Russia's people.
12:15There are so many examples
12:16of how the average Russian's life
12:18has gotten worse since the Ukraine war
12:19that there are too many to count.
12:21Russia is screwing around with pensions
12:23by creating a new system
12:24in which there will be no government co-financing.
12:27The Kremlin says it will make up for that
12:28by offering tax incentives
12:30to businesses to participate in this new scheme,
12:32which might work
12:33if Putin hadn't created an economic situation
12:35that led to 200,000 of Russia's
12:38small and medium-sized businesses
12:39going bust during the first three months of 2026 alone.
12:43There is even potential
12:44that Putin will cut pensions,
12:45all to keep on funding his failing war.
12:48Speaking of finding funding,
12:49Russia's public and social services
12:51have borne the brunt of Putin's desperate search
12:53for the cash that he needs.
12:54Examples of the chaos include
12:56the April announcement
12:57that Moscow is planning to cut
12:58over 105,000 workers
13:00from the public sector in 2026,
13:02which would follow on from a 2025
13:04in which Russia laid off 32,000 workers
13:07from the same sector.
13:08Again, it's all to save money
13:09to pump into Ukraine,
13:10and it wouldn't be surprising
13:12to see many of those laid-off workers
13:13end up on the front lines in Ukraine
13:15out of desperation.
13:16Other examples include
13:18the June 24th revelation
13:19that Russia plans to cut
13:20its federal road maintenance budget
13:22by over $142 million in 2026,
13:26followed by a near $260 million cut the year after.
13:29This is the type of situation
13:31that Putin has created for his people.
13:33Every penny must be pinched
13:34to fund the failing Ukraine war,
13:36and it's the people who are paying the price.
13:38That's 2,000 kilometers of highways
13:40that were set to be built or modernized,
13:42just gone,
13:43all thanks to Ukraine.
13:45Russia's people have watched
13:46their quality of life plummet in other ways, too.
13:49The cost of living in the country
13:50has skyrocketed on the back of rampant inflation.
13:53United 24 media reported on June 29th
13:55that the situation has gotten so bad
13:57that 81% of Russians are cutting back
13:59on their food budgets.
14:01Specifically, 34% are economizing
14:03when it comes to food,
14:05while 47% are actively cutting back
14:07their food purchases and costs
14:09to make up for the stagnating real incomes
14:11and grocery store prices growing higher.
14:14Again, Ukraine has done all of this to Russia.
14:16It's Ukraine creating a fuel crisis,
14:18combined with a shortage of imported goods,
14:21that is creating a supply and demand problem
14:22that is crippling Russia's people.
14:25Right now, trading economics reports
14:27that inflation in Russia stands at 5.3%.
14:29The country's base interest rate is 14.25%.
14:34Neither is a good figure,
14:36though they're both better percentages
14:37than we saw at the beginning of 2026.
14:39However, the inflation rate, at least,
14:41is not what it seems.
14:43Euronews reports that Swedish intelligence
14:45claims that Russia has been faking its economic data
14:48to hide the impact that Putin's war has had on the economy.
14:51Inflation isn't hovering around the 5% mark, Sweden says.
14:55It's closer to 15%,
14:57practically reaching parity with Russia's interest rate.
15:00Russians can't afford to buy what they used to buy,
15:02and they also can't afford the interest payments on loans
15:05that might have helped them out.
15:07This is what Putin has created.
15:09His desperate attempt to place himself
15:11into the pantheon of great Russian leaders
15:12has made Russia smaller.
15:14And now Putin has no other options.
15:16He's gambling on the capabilities of a Russian military
15:19that has already proven itself wholly incapable
15:21of defeating Ukraine.
15:23For Russia's leader,
15:24the only way to come out of the war he started
15:26is to somehow manage to capture the Donbass region
15:28by the end of the year.
15:30That's what he's betting on,
15:31a campaign that has so far seen Russia
15:33crashing up against the indomitable fortress belt,
15:36somehow resulting in a victory in the next six months.
15:39At least then, Putin could claim a win of sorts.
15:42One of Ukraine's most valuable regions
15:43would be under Russia's control,
15:45and he could negotiate from a position of power.
15:47Of course, the rest of Ukraine wouldn't have fallen,
15:49but at least Russia would have something.
15:51This gamble isn't going to pay off.
15:54And when it all falls apart,
15:55as Ukraine defends the Donbass into 2027 and beyond,
15:58whatever scant optimism
16:00that things might finally get better in Russia
16:02that exist will finally evaporate.
16:05Putin began his war to secure his legacy.
16:07He's done that all right.
16:09Only he won't go down as a great leader
16:10who made Russia bigger and stronger.
16:12Putin will be written into history
16:13as a man who started a war against the nation
16:16that he couldn't finish.
16:17He'll be the man who bankrupted Russia,
16:19sent the quality of life of its people back by decades,
16:22lost both regional and global influence,
16:24and perhaps even gave up Russia's Far East
16:26all for the chance to take Ukraine.
16:29Putin's dream is dead,
16:30and it won't be until his body follows suit
16:32that Russia has any sort of chance of recovery.
16:35Oh, and there's also the very real possibility
16:37that Russia is going to actively lose territory in Ukraine
16:40that it has held since 2014.
16:42Occupied Crimea is in trouble.
16:44Once Putin's prized conquest,
16:46Crimea is being gradually isolated by Ukraine
16:49and transformed into a symbol of all of Putin's failures.
16:52The campaign is brilliant.
16:53The implications are massive,
16:55and you can find out all about it by watching our video.
16:58Before you go,
16:59also make sure that you subscribe to The Military Show
17:01so you catch more of our analysis of Putin, the failed leader.
17:05And thank you for watching.
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