Ukraine’s relentless deep-strike campaign against Russian oil refineries has pushed Moscow’s energy sector into a historic crisis. With daily refining rates plummeting to two-decade lows, over 30% of Russia's refining capacity disabled, and fuel rationing spreading across the country, the Kremlin is resorting to desperate measures—including lowering fuel quality standards and begging Kazakhstan to process its crude. Discover how Ukraine's precision drone strikes are crippling the backbone of the Russian economy.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine Strikes Russia Oil Refineries Triggering Energy Crisis
01:10 - Russian Oil Refining Drops Below 3.8 Million Barrels
02:15 - Ukraine Deep Strike Campaign Intensifies Against Russian Refineries
03:25 - Ukrainian FP-1 Drones Target Precision Secondary Processing Units
04:30 - Ukrainian Strikes Disable 30 Percent Russian Refining Capacity
05:40 - Ukrainian Drones Strike Omsk Refinery 2,500km Deep
06:45 - Putin Acknowledges Fuel Shortages as Air Defenses Fail
07:50 - Russia Lowers Fuel Standards to Euro-3 Amid Shortages
09:00 - Russia Asks Kazakhstan to Refine Crude Oil
10:15 - Wildberries Drone Strikes Cause $3.5 Billion Losses
11:20 - Is the Russian Economy Facing Total Collapse?
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/c0PzbWKc
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine Strikes Russia Oil Refineries Triggering Energy Crisis
01:10 - Russian Oil Refining Drops Below 3.8 Million Barrels
02:15 - Ukraine Deep Strike Campaign Intensifies Against Russian Refineries
03:25 - Ukrainian FP-1 Drones Target Precision Secondary Processing Units
04:30 - Ukrainian Strikes Disable 30 Percent Russian Refining Capacity
05:40 - Ukrainian Drones Strike Omsk Refinery 2,500km Deep
06:45 - Putin Acknowledges Fuel Shortages as Air Defenses Fail
07:50 - Russia Lowers Fuel Standards to Euro-3 Amid Shortages
09:00 - Russia Asks Kazakhstan to Refine Crude Oil
10:15 - Wildberries Drone Strikes Cause $3.5 Billion Losses
11:20 - Is the Russian Economy Facing Total Collapse?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/c0PzbWKc
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NewsTranscript
00:00Ukraine continues to strike Russia's oil refineries with impunity, and the effects
00:04of these attacks are rapidly adding up.
00:07Data shows that the country's energy sector has officially entered its worst crisis in
00:11decades.
00:12Oil refining capacity has dropped to historic lows, exports have been slashed to a fraction
00:17of their former levels, and cracks are deepening in the very foundations of the Russian economy,
00:22pushing the country ever closer towards the point of no return.
00:26And as Kyiv strikes increase in both frequency and intensity, Moscow is forced to resort to
00:32increasingly desperate measures in a feeble attempt to control the crisis.
00:36But before we look at the Kremlin's frantic response, it's important to understand just
00:41how serious this situation has become.
00:43Throughout 2020 and 2021, before the war began, Russia's vast network of oil refineries routinely
00:51processed well over 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, even drawing near to the 6 million
00:56mark every now and then.
00:58Surprisingly, even when the war began, this trend continued.
01:02There were dips now and then.
01:03The total number of barrels dropped briefly below 5 million during certain periods of 2022,
01:09for example, and towards the latter stages of 2025, when Ukrainian forces ramped up their
01:14attacks on Russian refineries.
01:16Overall, however, Russia managed to keep on producing vast amounts of oil over the course
01:21of the conflict, exporting large amounts of this in order to cover the ever-rising
01:25cost of its war with Ukraine.
01:27Fast forward to 2026, however, and those numbers look much, much worse.
01:32By April, the daily refining rate had slipped well below 5 million.
01:36By July, according to data from the leading energy industrial analysis firm EA Analytics,
01:42it fell below 4 million, with Russia reportedly refining just 3.91 million barrels of crude
01:48per day.
01:49That's 1.4 million barrels a day fewer compared to the same time last year.
01:54It's the lowest refining rate Russia has seen in over two decades.
01:58We have to go all the way back to March 2005 to find a lower number.
02:02And it's only getting worse.
02:04In fact, the numbers are becoming so embarrassing for Russian officials that they've stopped
02:08publishing their refinery statistics.
02:10Fortunately, there's still plenty of open-source data, like satellite images of oil fields and
02:16storage tanks, plus real-time cargo flow tracking tools that allows firms like EA Analytics to
02:22reliably estimate the latest refining rate.
02:25According to their analysis, Russia processed approximately 3.8 million barrels per day during
02:30June.
02:313.8 million may still sound like a large number, but compared to the near 6 million barrels of
02:36just a few years ago, it's a dramatic decline.
02:39And it's all thanks to Ukraine's remarkable efforts in locating, targeting and striking
02:44Russia's many refineries.
02:46Kyiv's commanders realised early on that they weren't going to win the war on the frontlines.
02:51Instead, their best shot of achieving any sort of victory was to make it extremely difficult
02:56for the Kremlin to keep the war going.
02:58To do that, they had to make the conflict as costly as possible, and the most effective
03:02way to do that was to target the backbone of the Russian economy, its oil industry.
03:08Even back in 2022, with extremely limited resources and other difficulties, Ukraine still found
03:14time to strike Russian refineries on three separate occasions.
03:18That number grew to 13 in 2023, which was a reasonable improvement, but still nowhere near enough to
03:24deal serious lasting damage to the Kremlin's energy infrastructure.
03:28In 2024, the deep strike campaign truly began, with Ukrainian forces recording 92 successful
03:35strikes against Russian oil facilities.
03:38In 2025, they went further, with 138 strikes in total, and 2026 tally is set to be significantly
03:46higher by the time the year is done.
03:48But it's not just about the number of attacks, it's also about their intensity.
03:53Earlier attacks often involved relatively small long-range drones carrying quite lightweight
03:57warheads, which were able to trigger fires and explosions, but not necessarily powerful
04:02enough to deal the kind of damage that puts oil refineries out of action for extended periods
04:07of time.
04:08These days, however, Ukraine has a much stronger and more diverse array of aerial armaments to
04:13choose between, including enhanced UAVs, like the Firepoint FP-1, which can fly further and
04:19carry greater quantities of explosives than ever before, along with missiles like the FP-5
04:24Flamingo.
04:25Not only that, but Ukrainian drone teams have also become much more precise and intentional
04:30in their attacks.
04:31Earlier strikes mainly focused on simply getting one or more drones past Russian defenses and
04:36flying them directly into any part of the refinery.
04:39Drone operators weren't worried too much about finding and striking specific structures,
04:44they just wanted to deal some sort of damage before their UAVs were shot down.
04:48In 2026, however, Ukraine's UAV crews have a much better understanding of how Russian refineries
04:55work.
04:55They can more easily recognize the most important and valuable parts of these vast complexes,
05:00like secondary processing units, which are responsible for breaking down heavy oil into
05:05lighter and more valuable products, like diesel and jet fuel, and they're intentionally targeting
05:10these elements to ensure that their attacks are as effective and impactful as possible.
05:15This is extremely important.
05:17In 2024, a Ukrainian drone strike on a fuel storage tank might have looked spectacular on
05:23camera, with smoke and flames filling the air.
05:25But Russia was often able to keep the refinery itself running and repair the damage within weeks.
05:30In 2026, however, Ukraine's long-range strikes don't just look impressive, they're significantly
05:36more powerful and precise than ever before, hitting the weakest and most important parts
05:41of these refineries almost every time.
05:43And with Ukraine's attacks occurring more frequently and causing more damage each time,
05:48the Kremlin has reached the point where it simply can't keep up.
05:52It doesn't have anywhere near enough air defenses to protect its many major refineries, nor does
05:57it have the funds, resources or manpower to properly repair them after each attack.
06:02As a result, recent estimates suggest that the Ukrainian campaign has now disabled more
06:06than 30% of Russia's actual refining capacity, and approximately 45% of its nominal capacity.
06:13Many of the country's major refineries are partially offline, and some are unable to operate
06:18at all.
06:19The Stova refinery, for example, which is situated in the city of Nizhny Novgorod, over 200 miles
06:25east of Moscow and around 500 miles from the Ukrainian border, has been struck by Ukrainian
06:30drones several times in 2026 and has been offline since late May, according to thermal infrared
06:36satellite imagery gathered by the German intelligence firm Konstella.
06:40It's a similar story at many more of the country's refineries in places such as Moscow, Kirishy,
06:46Ryazan, Volgograd and Yaroslavl, to name but a few examples.
06:50Even in Omsk, an estimated 1,550 miles or 2,500 kilometers from Ukraine, one of the largest
06:58refineries in Russia lost a whopping 75% of its production capacity following a strike
07:03in early July.
07:04While reports suggest that Russia has been able to repair some of the damage, a significant
07:09portion of the refineries' equipment has remained offline.
07:13Many smaller facilities are also not operating at this time, due to extensive damage to their
07:17production facilities and storage tanks.
07:20And even when Russia tries to carry out repairs to its more important and valuable pieces of
07:25infrastructure, weeks' worth of effort can be undone in the blink of an eye by Ukrainian
07:29drones.
07:30The Kirishy refinery, for example, was hit by Ukraine in September of 2025, then again in
07:36October, then twice in March 2026, then again in May and once more in July.
07:42The Tuapse refinery in Krasnodar Krai has suffered a similar fate, being hit on numerous occasions
07:47in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
07:52In between these attacks, Russia has tried to bring these refineries back to peak capacity,
07:57but there are always more Ukrainian drones on the horizon, ready and waiting to take them
08:01offline all over again.
08:03And if Ukraine can maintain this level of intensity, Russia has no hope whatsoever of orchestrating
08:09any sort of serious recovery.
08:10Its refining rate will continue to decline, the number of barrels it can process each day
08:16will keep on slipping, and its fuel crisis, which is officially the worst to hit the country
08:20since the fall of the Soviet Union, will only get worse.
08:24The Kremlin is rapidly running out of room to manoeuvre.
08:27But before we look at how it's trying to contain the crisis, if this is the kind of
08:31insight you want more of, make sure you're subscribed to The Military Show, we break it
08:35down like this every week.
08:38Now Russia's initial response to Ukraine's deep strike campaign was to pretend like it
08:43wasn't happening.
08:45Regional governors and other officials rarely commented on oil refinery strikes, often downplaying
08:50the amount of damage that was done, and instead focusing on the number of Ukrainian drones
08:54their defences shot down.
08:56Authorities in most parts of the country also banned the public from posting pictures or
09:00videos online of Ukrainian drone attacks, threatening transgressors with fines and criminal charges.
09:06Officials claimed that this was being done in order to prevent Ukraine from being able
09:10to use images of Russian refineries to inform their future attacks.
09:14In reality, however, it was clear to see that it was a propaganda tactic, yet another way
09:20for the Kremlin to cover up what was really happening and try to keep the people calm as
09:24their country quite literally began to burn down around them.
09:28By the summer of 2026, however, the situation had deteriorated to the point where even those
09:34at the highest levels could no longer conceal the truth from the masses.
09:37With oil production reaching all-time lows, explosions and fires breaking out in dozens of different
09:42regions and day-long lines at gas stations across the country, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister,
09:48Alexander Novak, was forced to acknowledge what he called problems and shortages.
09:53Even the President, Vladimir Putin, stated,
10:02Putin went on to claim that the country was committed to rapidly and significantly increased
10:07production of the air defense systems needed to defend refineries and other vital pieces
10:11of infrastructure.
10:13Unfortunately for him, there are reams of evidence that prove Russia's air defenses simply aren't
10:18cut out to cope with Ukrainian drones.
10:20Satellite imagery from 2022 onwards show that many of Russia's refineries have been equipped
10:26with various drone defenses, ranging from protective nets to missile batteries like S-300, S-400
10:32and Pantsir systems.
10:35However, none of these measures have been sufficient to stop the strikes.
10:39Even if Russia is able to down some of Ukraine's UAVs, it doesn't cost much money for Kyiv to
10:44simply make more, and all it takes is a few of them to make it through to deal millions of
10:48dollars' worth of damage in an instant.
10:51What's more, Russia only has a finite amount of air defense systems, it can't protect every
10:56single refinery at once, and even if it makes more defenses, Ukraine is actively targeting
11:01and taking them out on a regular basis.
11:04Indeed, barely a week goes by without more reports of systems like S-400s being wiped off
11:09the map, opening up yet more gaps for Ukrainian UAVs to fly through without any risk of being
11:14detected or downed.
11:16Even Moscow, which is supposedly the best protected city in all of Russia, has suffered several
11:21drone strikes in recent months.
11:23So regardless of Putin's claims, it's extremely unlikely that Russia is suddenly going to
11:28level up its defenses in any major way.
11:30Instead, the attacks are almost guaranteed to continue, forcing the Kremlin to make increasingly
11:36difficult decisions to prevent its economy from collapsing.
11:39It's already had to impose total bans on jet fuel and gasoline exports, as well as partial
11:45bans on diesel exports, with Novak admitting that a total ban on diesel was under consideration.
11:51The country's Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, also signed a decree in early July that allowed
11:56some Russian refineries to lower their production standards.
11:59Prior to that point, Russia adhered to the Euro 5 standard for gasoline production, which was
12:04introduced by the European Union in 2009 in order to reduce harmful emissions.
12:09Following Mishustin's decree, however, some refineries are now reverting to the older Euro
12:143 standard of gasoline, which contains much higher sulfur content, leading to greater safety
12:19risks and heavier pollution.
12:21Some reports suggest that the Kremlin is even considering allowing the production of Euro
12:252 grade gas, which has actually been outlawed in Russia since 2013 and is considered extremely
12:31harmful to the environment.
12:33This just shows how far the country has fallen, that it would be willing to roll back laws
12:38and revert to outdated standards just to keep enough gas flowing to keep trucks on the
12:43roads and factories ticking over.
12:45It's a damning indictment of the Kremlin's mismanagement of both the war itself and the fuel crisis it's
12:50caused.
12:51The Russian public, meanwhile, is feeling the effects of that crisis more deeply by the
12:55day.
12:56Many regions across Russia have introduced rationing systems at gas stations, with consumers only
13:01able to buy fuel on certain days and only in limited quantities each time.
13:06This has led to long lines and even fights breaking out as frustration builds, with some
13:10Russians resorting to black market sellers and spending extortionate amounts for a full
13:15tank of gas just so that they can continue driving to work or to visit friends and family.
13:20Some locations have even started asking people to work from home so that they don't have to use
13:25as much fuel for their own vehicles.
13:27And the popular Russian search engine Yandex reported over 17,000 searches for the phrase
13:32how to make gasoline during the month of June, as regular Russians become more and more desperate.
13:38And they're not the only ones showing signs of desperation.
13:41In late July, reports revealed that the Kremlin had reached out to officials in Kazakhstan,
13:46asking if they would be able to process oil on Russia's behalf.
13:50Effectively, this would involve Russian oil being sent to Kazakhstani facilities for refining.
13:55Kazakhstan would then reserve the right to sell some of that fuel to its own domestic
13:59market before sending the rest back to Russia.
14:01Representatives from Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy confirmed that talks had taken place,
14:06and while the exact details of the deal, like volumes and commercial terms, haven't
14:11been specified, the very idea that Moscow would even think about asking Astana for help is
14:16utterly humiliating for the Kremlin.
14:17Despite ranking among the 10 largest countries on the planet, Kazakhstan is still a fraction
14:22of Russia's size.
14:24Its GDP pales in comparison to Russia's, and for decades following the collapse of the
14:29Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, like other former Soviet states, had to rely heavily on Russia
14:34simply to survive.
14:35Now the roles are being reversed.
14:38Russia is having to beg a smaller and poorer country to help keep its energy industry alive
14:42and intact.
14:43This isn't merely embarrassing for the Putin regime, it's also an extremely inefficient
14:48strategy.
14:49If it goes ahead with this plan, Russia will have to cover the cost of exporting its crude
14:54oil to Kazakhstan, paying Kazakhstani companies to refine it, and then handle all of the logistical
14:59complexities involved with importing the refined gasoline and diesel back over the border, before
15:04distributing it to regions around the country.
15:07This will all involve time, effort, and most importantly, money, and money is something that the Kremlin
15:12is seriously struggling with right now.
15:14Its economy is in a perilous position.
15:17Unwilling to accept defeat, Putin continues to pour billions into the war with Ukraine,
15:22even while oil and gas revenue, the primary source of funding for the Russian federal budget,
15:27continues to decline, suffering a 30% drop in the first five months of 2026 compared to
15:33the same period of the previous year.
15:34The economy has also taken a serious hit in the wake of Ukraine's strikes on warehouses
15:39belonging to wild berries, which is widely referred to as the Russian equivalent of Amazon,
15:45and accounts for over half of the country's online sales.
15:48Analysts estimate that losses from the attacks amounted to 215 to 280 billion rubles, 2.7 to
15:553.5 billion dollars, with sellers working with the marketplace suffering the greatest impact.
16:00Restoring the damaged facilities could cost an additional 62.5 to 80.8 billion rubles,
16:06790 million to 1 billion dollars.
16:09Although RVB founder Tatiana Kim stated that the warehouses are insured, the policies don't
16:15cover the risks of drone attacks.
16:17This company is a major player in the Russian economy, it employs over 5% of the entire workforce,
16:23and together with fellow online retailer Ozone, accounts for around 8.5% of the national gross
16:29domestic product.
16:30Thus, in targeting wild berries, Ukraine isn't just damaging a company that has supplied Russian
16:35soldiers with armor, drone parts, and various pieces of military equipment, it's also chipping
16:40away even further at the Kremlin's coffers, reducing the amount of money moving through
16:44the economy and pushing the country closer and closer towards a seemingly inevitable recession.
16:49Every economic indicator is pointing in the wrong direction for Russia, and all the signs
16:54suggest that it's only going to get worse from here on out.
16:57In fact, even if Putin sat down at the negotiating table today and agreed to end the war, it may
17:03already be too late for Russia to recover from this.
17:06The country is likely to suffer generations of hurt and hardship for years to come, all
17:11because of one man's hubris.
17:12You can learn more about how bad the situation is becoming in this video, which looks at how
17:17Ukraine is carrying out devastating drone strikes on Russian air bases, wiping out some
17:22of the Kremlin's most important and valuable aerial assets. Alternatively, check out this video to see
17:28how one of Kyiv's drone companies is turning the tables on Russia's jet-powered UAVs. And finally,
17:34remember to subscribe to The Military Show if you're eager to see more breaking news reports and deep
17:39detailed breakdowns of the latest stories from the Russia-Ukraine war and other conflicts around the world.
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