As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, Vladimir Putin faces mounting military losses, economic strain, and growing unrest within Russia’s elite. In this video, we explore striking parallels between Putin and Ivan the Terrible, whose paranoia and brutal policies reshaped Russian history. Could Putin’s increasing fear of betrayal lead to a modern-day Oprichnina? Discover how war, power, and paranoia may be pushing Russia toward a dangerous new chapter—and what it could mean for Putin’s future.
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00:00Russia's President Vladimir Putin is witnessing his worst nightmare come to life.
00:05As his war with Ukraine devolves into a complete catastrophe, with disastrous losses of troops
00:10and equipment, his carefully constructed reputation has also begun to crumble.
00:15The former KGB officer no longer commands the fear and respect he once did, and Putin's
00:21paranoia is rising as even his most loyal allies begin to turn against him.
00:26Now, even Russian journalists report that the President is growing increasingly fearful
00:32of either being ousted from power or assassinated, and may be resorting to increasingly drastic
00:37and damaging measures to maintain his grip on power, sending Russia right back to the
00:43Dark Ages in the process.
00:45To understand exactly what Putin may have planned, we first have to take a major leap back in
00:51time, all the way back to the 16th century and the days of Tsar Ivan IV, more commonly
00:57known as Ivan the Terrible, who ruled Russia from 1547 through to his death in 1584.
01:04Ivan was a deeply paranoid and unpredictable ruler.
01:08The early stages of his reign were relatively stable, but after a decade on the throne, two
01:13life-changing events completely altered his outlook and approach forever.
01:17The first of those events came in 1560, when Ivan's beloved wife Anastasia died.
01:23Despite no evidence at the time, Ivan strongly suspected that Anastasia had been poisoned by
01:29his enemies.
01:30Years later, scientists actually examined the Tsarina's bones and found unusually high levels
01:36of mercury, suggesting that Ivan's paranoia may not have been misplaced.
01:40A few years later, in 1564, one of Ivan's closest friends, Prince Kerbski, betrayed him.
01:47In 1558, Ivan had launched an ill-advised attempt to conquer the Baltic territory of Livonia.
01:53Kerbski initially assisted him, but after falling out with the Tsar and fearing repression, he
01:59defected to Lithuania and eventually led a joint Polish-Lithuanian army against Russian forces,
02:05handing Ivan a crushing and humiliating military defeat in the process.
02:09The impact of these events took a toll on Ivan's psyche.
02:13He left Moscow and traveled to the town of Alexandrov to the north, where he wrote a letter announcing
02:18his intention to abdicate the throne.
02:20However, the court of noblemen and clergymen he left in charge was unable to rule effectively
02:26in his absence, and begged him to reconsider.
02:28He agreed, but with one all-important condition, he must be given absolute power, including the
02:34ability to seize the lands of anyone who betrayed him and execute anyone he suspected of treason.
02:40The court was desperate, so it agreed to Ivan's terms.
02:44And so began the Obrychnina, a dark and gruesome period in Russian history in which the full
02:50extent of Ivan's innate fear and paranoia was unleashed.
02:54This involved the division of Russia into two administrative areas, one of which, the Obrychnina,
03:00was ruled entirely by Ivan, however he saw fit, while the other fell under the control
03:05of the nobility.
03:06To cement his control over the Obrychnina, Ivan ordered the formation of Russia's first
03:12secret police, known as the Obrychniki, a 6,000-man strong private army that effectively
03:18served as Ivan's personal bodyguards and enforcers.
03:22Dressed in black and given carte blanche to torture or kill anyone who even as much as
03:26looked at Ivan the wrong way, these secret police officers soon earned a fearsome reputation,
03:32to the point at which locals would quite literally flee their homes if they heard the Obrychniki
03:37were in the area.
03:38The reason for that is simple.
03:41The Obrychniki were incredibly brutal.
03:43Some of their favorite execution methods included boiling people alive, impending them on spikes,
03:49or tearing them from limb from limb with the help of horses.
03:52The officers even famously rode around with severed dogs' heads stuck to their saddles, a symbol
03:58of their responsibility to sniff out and eradicate treason, wherever it might be found.
04:03Eventually, Ivan wanted to extend his power even further, beyond the established boundaries
04:09of the Obrychnina and into the country's second largest city, Novgorod.
04:13He had become convinced that the city's leaders and most powerful citizens were plotting against
04:18him, so he ordered a bloody siege of Novgorod in 1570.
04:23Members of the clergy were rounded up and beaten to death, while religious buildings like churches
04:28and monasteries were ransacked.
04:30Merchants, nobles, and other officials were also tortured and killed in horrific ways,
04:35and even their wives and children weren't shown any mercy, with many of them being rounded
04:39up and thrown into a nearby river.
04:41All of this brutality and bloodshed came about because of the fears and insecurities of a single
04:47man.
04:48Fast forward to today, and the echoes of the past are clear to see.
04:52Putin may not be a Tsar or Emperor in the official sense, but certainly has a history of acting
04:58like one.
04:59He has repeatedly defied and rewritten Russia's laws and even the country's constitution in
05:04order to remain in power year after year.
05:07He has also shown the same ruthlessness as Ivan the Terrible in ordering the invasion
05:12of a neighboring nation, and is now beginning to display the same neuroses that gave Ivan
05:17his terrible moniker to begin with.
05:19There are three core reasons behind this.
05:22Firstly, and most obviously, the war is going incredibly badly for Russia.
05:27The latest estimates suggest that Russia has suffered well over a million total casualties
05:32in Ukraine, including hundreds of thousands of dead.
05:35The country has also lost a staggering amount of equipment, from tanks and infantry fighting
05:40vehicles to expensive air defense systems and state-of-the-art radars.
05:45With every passing month, more reports emerge of devastating losses for the Kremlin's forces,
05:50with literally tens of thousands of new casualties.
05:54That might not matter all that much if the country was actually managing to make vital
05:59gains on the ground, capturing important towns and cities, smashing Ukraine's defensive
06:04lines and pushing onward towards a clear and inevitable victory.
06:08But that's not happening either.
06:10Instead, Russia's rate of progress has dramatically slowed down in many frontline locations, with
06:16thousands of soldiers losing their lives for only the tiniest patches of land.
06:20In some regions, Ukraine's forces have even managed to slowly turn the tide, retaking lost
06:25land and pushing the Russians back.
06:28As a result, Russia's casualty rate has finally begun to surpass its recruitment rate, with the
06:33country increasingly unable to bring in enough new soldiers to replenish its ranks.
06:38In other words, Russia's army is no longer expanding, but diminishing, and that represents an abject
06:44failure for the man in charge of it all, Putin himself.
06:48The second big issue is economic.
06:50Russia's war with Ukraine was supposed to be over and done with in a matter of weeks.
06:55Moscow's forces were expected to rampage over Ukraine's defensive lines and raise the
07:00Russian flag over the streets of Kyiv with ease.
07:03The operation would still have cost money, but would have potentially brought in much more
07:07revenue in the long term as Russia began to exploit its newfound territories.
07:12That didn't happen.
07:13Instead, the war has raged on for several years now, and the Kremlin has been forced to spend
07:18billions of dollars to keep it going.
07:20It's lost an incalculable amount of income as a result of sanctions and faces a spiraling
07:25labor crisis, coupled with the effect of up to a million intelligent, skilled Russians leaving
07:30the country and opting to start new lives elsewhere.
07:33The country's financial burden has only increased as the war has progressed, with Russia not only
07:38having to spend more on the likes of manufacturing drones and covering the extortionate costs of
07:43recruitment, but also suffering direct economic hits in the form of Ukrainian drone strikes
07:48on its most valuable infrastructure, oil refineries, pipelines, ports, and storage facilities.
07:54These attacks have become more frequent and more impactful, as Ukraine's domestic defense industry
08:00has strengthened, leading to even greater losses for its opponent.
08:04This has most directly affected the Russian public, with the general population suffering a severe drop in
08:10quality of life and having to spend much more of their meager income on things like fuel for their cars
08:15and groceries for their families.
08:17Finally, the third big reason why Putin is panicking is that this war has shattered the myth of Russian
08:23competence and superiority that he himself worked so hard to create.
08:27For years, Putin and his closest allies built up Russia's reputation as one of the strongest nations on Earth,
08:34with the second mightiest military, after the United States, and almost unimaginable levels of power and influence.
08:40Even relatively strong nations grew to fear the Russian threat, which often led them doing exactly what the Kremlin wanted.
08:48Many countries also relied heavily on Russia for their own defenses, fostering relationships with Putin
08:54and investing heavily in Russian or Soviet tanks, vehicles, aircraft, and defenses.
08:59This is why, when the war began, so many analysts expected that a Russian victory was inevitable
09:05and that the Kremlin's war machine would ruthlessly sweep across Ukraine with ease.
09:09Instead, the machine has been reduced to a spluttering wreck, chugging along with all the efficiency of a 50-year
09:16-old tractor.
09:17Russia's finest tanks have been reduced to smoldering wrecks.
09:20Its air force was never able to achieve superiority, despite starting the war with an immense advantage,
09:26and its so-called world-beating army has failed again and again to achieve almost any of its stated objectives.
09:32As a result, the Kremlin has lost its fear factor, and people no longer look at Moscow or at Putin
09:39the way they once did.
09:41Now, before we dig into what this all means, if this is the kind of insight you want more of,
09:46make sure you're subscribed to the military show.
09:49We break it down like this every week.
09:51Now, during the early stages of the war with Ukraine, Russian officials largely towed the line and didn't openly criticize
09:58the Kremlin's decisions or call out Putin's perceived failures.
10:02As time has passed, however, the situation has changed quite dramatically, with increasing numbers of high-ranking military members and
10:09Moscow elites airing their frustrations in more ways than one.
10:13The most dramatic example of this was the Wagner Group mutiny, in which one of Putin's closest confidants, the Evgeny
10:20Prigozhin, turned against him and even led a short-lived march on Moscow.
10:24Prigozhin ultimately paid for this with his life, perishing in highly suspicious circumstances in a plane crash soon after.
10:31Nobody wants to become the next Prigozhin, and there hasn't been any other high-profile attempt at ousting Putin from
10:37his position.
10:38At the same time, the president's power has quite clearly diminished.
10:42Hardline Russian nationalists who once adored him have labelled him a coward and called for him to step down.
10:48His approval rating with the Russian public has slipped to an all-time low.
10:52And rumours have steadily begun to swirl that even the wealthy oligarchs and loyal allies who have remained silently supportive
10:59all this time are approaching their limits.
11:01Putin is aware of this, and just like Ivan the Terrible, he's begun to fall victim to his own paranoia.
11:08We saw the first signs of this in late 2024 and throughout 2025, when the president carried a Stalin-style
11:16purge,
11:16ousting large numbers of Russian generals, high-ranking officers, ministers and other elites.
11:22Many were accused of corruption and arrested, while others were made to quietly retire or simply vanish from public life
11:28in strange circumstances.
11:29Some, like the former transport minister, Roman Starevoit, were even found dead.
11:35The entire episode revealed incredible insight into the president's perturbed state of mind,
11:41as he systematically went about removing experience and once-trusted people from positions of power,
11:47often replacing them with people who were widely seen as less competent but more loyal.
11:51And it doesn't actually seem to have done much to assuage Putin's panic,
11:56as a May 2026 report revealed that the president actively fears he could be killed or removed from power at
12:02any moment.
12:03The report was compiled by an unnamed European Union country,
12:07and published on the independent Russian investigative journalist platform Important Stories on May 4.
12:13It states that the Kremlin has entered a state of increased alarm since March 2026,
12:19with Putin himself growing increasingly worried about people plotting against him.
12:24To be more precise, the president is allegedly concerned about drones being used to assassinate him
12:29on behalf of members of Moscow's political elite.
12:32As a direct consequence, the Federal Protective Service ,
12:36which is the organization tasked with protecting the president and other state officials,
12:41has been ordered to significantly strengthen Putin's security.
12:44All visitors to the presidential administration, for example, must now undergo two levels of verification,
12:50including a complete inspection by FSO employees.
12:54Putin is also reportedly visiting fewer places,
12:57and neither he nor his closest family members spend any time in their usual residences in the Moscow region or
13:03in Valdai.
13:04Instead, according to the report, Putin now spends much of his time hiding out in reinforced bunkers,
13:10with the Russian media using pre-recorded videos to make it look like he's out and about more than he
13:15actually is.
13:16In addition, communication networks in certain areas of Moscow are being periodically disconnected,
13:22and Putin doesn't intend to visit any sites of military infrastructure in 2026,
13:28despite visiting several such sites in 2025.
13:31The FSO also controls and coordinates all information and media publications related to the president,
13:38effectively dictating what the media can and cannot say about him.
13:42On top of all of this, government officials and employees working in proximity to Putin
13:47aren't allowed to use their own mobile phones or access the Internet in his presence.
13:51They're also banned from using public transport, being made to rely exclusively on FSO transport to get around.
13:58Some, like Putin's personal chefs, photographers and security guards,
14:02have even had surveillance systems installed in their own homes,
14:06so FSO agents can keep an eye on them and ensure they're not plotting against the president.
14:11Centuries have passed since the days of Ivan the Terrible,
14:14but so many of the same features of his reign can be seen once again with Putin.
14:18They may not be as openly brutal or bloodthirsty,
14:21but the FSO is effectively operating like a modern-day Oprichniki,
14:26protecting Putin at all costs while sniffing out possible signs of treason or conspiracy against him.
14:31And they may have found their first big-name culprit, the former defense minister, Sergey Shoigu.
14:37The report notes that Shoigu, who currently serves as the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation,
14:43continues to hold great influence among the military command and has been linked with a potential coup.
14:49This may partially explain why Shoigu's former first deputy, Ruslan Salikov, was arrested in early March,
14:56indirectly weakening Shoigu's position, with some experts believing he may be next in line to be prosecuted and purged.
15:03Meanwhile, Putin has also ordered the FSO to strengthen protections for ten high-ranking Russian generals
15:09who are seen as his most loyal allies, including the first deputy chief of the General Staff,
15:14Colonel-General Nikolai Bogdanovsky, and deputy chief of the General Staff, Colonel-General Sergei Istrakov.
15:21In short, while the president appears to have a small circle of trust, he seems increasingly wary of anyone outside
15:27of that circle
15:28and has few qualms about prosecuting and punishing anyone who might show even the slightest hint of dissent.
15:34Should he continue down this path, some analysts argue Putin could bring about a 21st century Oprichnina
15:41that could eventually bring about the end of his time in power, and perhaps even his life.
15:46One of those experts is Roman Arnin, an investigative journalist and the founder of Important Stories.
15:52He argues that the war is entering a new phase, not on the front lines, but among Russian security apparatus
15:58clans
15:59for the throne of a weakening dictator.
16:01Looking ahead to what comes next, Arnin suggests two potential scenarios, which may overlap and even occur simultaneously.
16:08The first is that Putin will continue to grant more power to his FSO and forces, as well as the
16:14National Guard,
16:15who could even develop into a Russian equivalent of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
16:21tasked with carrying out what Arnin calls unprecedented repression of Russian society
16:26to crack down on any possible plots, conspiracies or rebellions.
16:30The second scenario Arnin envisions is a new Time of Troubles, which was the name given to the period of
16:36political and social crisis in Russia
16:38that began at the end of the 16th century and into the start of the 17th century.
16:43This period involved political anarchy, civil war, foreign invasion and famine,
16:48and many historians argue it was a direct consequence of Ivan the Terrible's Oprichnina policies.
16:53They fear that history may about to repeat itself, as Putin grows increasingly desperate and paranoid
17:00and stops nothing to remain in control of the country.
17:03All the signs are there.
17:05Not only is Putin purging officials and consolidating his most loyal forces around him,
17:10but he's also massively expanded the power of the Federal Security Service, FSB,
17:15the modern-day equivalent of the Soviet-era KGB.
17:19Meanwhile, while there haven't been yet any recorded executions in the streets,
17:23Putin's enforcers have begun arresting and torturing innocent civilians.
17:27In February 2026, for example, reports emerged of a translator named Svetlana Savalyeva,
17:34who fell in love with a Ukrainian soldier and tried to meet him.
17:38She was captured and brutally beaten in order to make her confess to a crime she hadn't committed,
17:43trying to join the armed forces of Ukraine so that she could be charged with treason.
17:48She's one of an increasing number of female political prisoners convicted on trumped-up charges
17:53of terrorism, treason, and extremism.
17:56Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastakov believes that the levels of repression and control
18:02being enforced by the Putin regime are growing dangerously close to those seen
18:06under Soviet leader Joseph Stalin during the Great Terror.
18:10Arnin, meanwhile, is looking even further back in the history books, stating that if and when Putin's enforcers
18:16eventually begin to turn against not just members of the public but those in the highest positions of power,
18:21the risk of a coup and a new time of troubles will become even more real.
18:26Putin wanted to be remembered as Russia's modern-day Peter the Great.
18:30He's more likely to go down as the new Ivan the Terrible.
18:33Now, you can learn more about the President's dramatic downfall in this video,
18:38which explores how Russia is headed for a humiliating tactical defeat.
18:43Or check out this video for another look back through the history books
18:46at how Russia may be about to suffer its third dramatic collapse.
18:50And finally, be sure to subscribe to the channel for more insightful analysis
18:54and breaking news reports from the Russia-Ukraine war.
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