00:00You mentioned Tuesday. It's primary election day in Florida, and the race for the state's 19th congressional district specifically is
00:05shaping up to be a wild one.
00:07Yeah, it's a 10-way race filled with carpetbaggers from the Midwest, the South, New York, all running with the
00:13goal of filling Representative Byron Donald's seat in the Fort Myers area.
00:18He is running, of course, for governor.
00:20We spoke earlier with Greg Giroux, senior reporter for Bloomberg Government, on all of this.
00:25Greg, it's great to see you. Welcome to Bloomberg this weekend.
00:28I want to start with the 19th district, the clown car, if you will.
00:32As you write, six of the 10 GOP candidates have run for House seats in other states.
00:38One is on his seventh run for Congress. Two are Hill veterans attempting comebacks after leaving under a cloud.
00:44And two have prison records and pardons from President Donald Trump.
00:49Now, he just weighed in on this race. Will his endorsement matter?
00:51It usually does. I mean, President Trump's endorsement, usually, his endorsees usually win Republican primaries, not all the time, but
01:00most of the time.
01:01And in this case, he endorsed Catalina Loft, who is a conservative activist who served in the Commerce Department during
01:08Trump's first term.
01:10She ran for, she's one of the six candidates who have run for Congress in other states.
01:14She ran at least a couple of times in Illinois, including against another candidate in this race who sought that
01:19seat as well.
01:20All right. So she knows how to run. That's good to know.
01:23What's interesting is, by getting an endorsement from President Trump, Greg, does that give her an advantage?
01:28I'm just curious, with quite a full plate here of candidates wanting the seat.
01:33Yeah, it usually does.
01:35The president sometimes can be a cautious endorser if there's no clear frontrunner.
01:39He'll sometimes stay out of primaries.
01:41But in this case, he's endorsing in a race that has no real dominant frontrunner here.
01:46There's really only one candidate among the top candidates with strong local ties to southwest Florida.
01:53But the president is deciding to endorse a former aide here.
01:56It does underscore he prizes loyalty, people who worked for him before.
02:00So it is a little bit of a risky endorsement in that there is no clear frontrunner here.
02:04But this is certainly going to give Loft a boost in a crowded race where there's no runoff.
02:09And a winner could probably win with something like in the mid-20s.
02:12Wow. And of course, the winner of this primary is likely to take the seat, right?
02:16I mean, this is Florida we're talking about.
02:18This seat currently held and being vacated by Byron Donalds, who we're talking to this weekend.
02:24Greg, pretty interesting moment for him.
02:27Endorsed by President Trump.
02:29Will he be the next governor of Florida?
02:31Well, he'll certainly be the Republican nominee.
02:33The big question will be, does Florida, which has trended very Republican lately,
02:37does it become more politically competitive in a more difficult political environment for Republicans?
02:45Byron Donalds probably will win his contested Republican primary with the president's backing.
02:50It looks like he'll go on to the general election.
02:52He would probably face Democrat David Jolly, a former House member and a former Republican.
02:58Polls show a somewhat close race between Donalds and Jolly.
03:01But, you know, it's very, very difficult for Florida Democrats.
03:05They'd have to stanch some of the bleeding they've suffered there the last decade or so.
03:10You know, Greg, one of the things I'm curious about, we're going to get into the money and who's backing
03:13who
03:13and whether that gives anybody in Florida an advantage.
03:16But so far, we've had a lot of primaries.
03:18You've been covering them on Balance of Power, Joe.
03:21I mean, what are they telling us about what might happen come November?
03:26Is there a clear messaging?
03:27Is it the economy that often is what matters to voters?
03:30What is it?
03:32Yeah, the economy is usually number one, and I think that's also the case this year.
03:35We're hearing a lot more from candidates and from voters about affordability,
03:40about the high cost of living from gas prices to utilities to housing.
03:46And I think the common message I'm hearing from a lot of candidates from both parties is
03:50send a fighter to Washington who will work to, you know, lower your costs.
03:54I'm hearing that message over and over again.
03:56In the primaries we've held thus far, I think one kind of a common theme is that there's a lot
04:01of energy on the Democratic side.
04:03In primary after primary in states and districts, we're seeing Democratic participation much higher
04:09than before and certainly outpacing Republican participation.
04:13The big question will be, can the Democrats, you know, does that extrapolate forward to the
04:17November election?
04:18It is a midterm election year.
04:20As our viewers know, the president's party almost always loses ground in Congress in midterm
04:26election years.
04:27And this is shaping up to be a very challenging year for House and Senate Republicans defending
04:33their slim majorities.
04:34So, Greg, bring it back to the 19th District, the economy.
04:38We've had some stories on the Bloomberg about being more expensive living there than even New
04:42York City.
04:42So, it's gotten, things have changed in terms of the economic landscape.
04:46I am curious, is the economy a part of every platform of this, quite an array of candidates
04:52who are running for the 19th District?
04:54Yeah, it really is.
04:56And we hear a lot in Florida about insurance rates as well.
04:58That's very much a burning issue, including in this southwestern Florida district that has
05:03Naples and Cape Coral.
05:04In Republican primaries, though, we're seeing, I think, including this one, we're seeing,
05:09I think, less about specific issues and more about running in concert with President Trump.
05:15I think even after President Trump endorsed Catalina Law for the seat, we'll continue to
05:20see in the waning days of this primary, just the Republican candidates running very much as
05:26close to President Trump and his policy.
05:29So, we're seeing a lot more pro-Trump messaging from candidates in Republican primaries.
05:33And we're seeing a lot of specifics on the policy issues.
05:37This is, of course, why we're having this conversation about Democratic Socialists
05:40emerging in races around the country.
05:42Look no further than Michigan, some really important swing states, Minnesota.
05:46But, Greg, there's one issue that brings my world and Carol's worlds together.
05:51We collide on the issue of data center, which a year or two ago was the best thing that
05:56might happen to your neighborhood.
05:58And now it has become such a flashpoint that even in Florida, Republicans are arguing about
06:03this.
06:03Byron Donalds has his own legislation he talked about to control the impact of data centers.
06:08How will that impact some of the outcomes here in the Sunshine State?
06:12Yeah, I'm hearing a lot about, more and more about data centers and AI and campaign messaging,
06:17including in Florida.
06:19Yeah, it doesn't always break down by, you know, it doesn't really fall neatly along kind
06:24of an ideological left-right spectrum.
06:26Hearing a lot of, you know, concerns about data centers, about local control, about do
06:34they or do they or do they not contribute to high utility costs?
06:37Do they take up a lot of space?
06:39We're also hearing on the other side a lot of arguments that this is a war that we can't,
06:44that the U.S. can't lose to China.
06:46So, a lot of messaging on data centers and AI that I've heard in past campaigns.
06:51It's definitely, definitely a major, one of the major issues in this campaign.
06:55All right, so just to wrap up, 30 seconds here, Greg, who's got the edge here?
06:59You know, I think a lot of candidates were a bunch near the top, but I'll tell you, President
07:02Trump's endorsement of Catalina Loft will probably make her the front runner in this
07:06race just because Trump's endorsement, while it doesn't always lead to victory for this
07:11supported candidate, it usually does.
07:13And it's going to bring, you know, some conservative activist energy, help with fundraising.
07:18It's certainly helpful to drive favorable media attention, certainly among conservative
07:22media outlets in Florida's 19th district.
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