Russia’s greatest setback may not be on the battlefield—it may be the collapse of its influence across the former Soviet Union. In this video, we explore how nations like Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and others are breaking free from Moscow’s orbit following the invasion of Ukraine. Discover why Putin’s war has accelerated Russia’s geopolitical decline, reshaped Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and weakened the Kremlin’s decades-long grip on its so-called “Near Abroad.”
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Russia Near Abroad and 1991 Soviet Collapse
06:00 - How Ukraine War Exposed Putin Military Weakness
07:08 - Armenia Leaves CSTO and Moldova Seeks EU
10:14 - Kazakhstan and Central Asia Reject Russian Influence
13:51 - Why Belarus and 71% of Georgia Defy Putin
15:38 - Is the Russian Sphere of Influence Collapsing
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES / ATTRIBUTIONS: https://pastebin.com/va1ak61R
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Russia Near Abroad and 1991 Soviet Collapse
06:00 - How Ukraine War Exposed Putin Military Weakness
07:08 - Armenia Leaves CSTO and Moldova Seeks EU
10:14 - Kazakhstan and Central Asia Reject Russian Influence
13:51 - Why Belarus and 71% of Georgia Defy Putin
15:38 - Is the Russian Sphere of Influence Collapsing
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES / ATTRIBUTIONS: https://pastebin.com/va1ak61R
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NewsTranscript
00:00His war with Ukraine may not yet be over, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has already
00:05been dealt his biggest defeat.
00:07It didn't arrive on the front lines of the Donbas, nor is it confined to the battlefields
00:11of Kherson.
00:12Instead, it's taking place in close to a dozen independent nations across Eastern Europe
00:17and Central and Western Asia, including Moldova, Kazakhstan and Armenia.
00:22These nations are just a few examples of what Russia likes to call its near abroad.
00:27And to understand that term, we have to first rewind to 1991 and the dissolution of the
00:32Soviet Union.
00:33It was one of the most seismic events in modern history, but the collapse of the Union wasn't
00:38quite as clean-cut as many people imagine.
00:41Yes, former Soviet republics gained a certain level of political independence, but since
00:45many of these nations were quite small and didn't necessarily have vast swathes of resources,
00:50strong domestic infrastructure, or vast networks of international relations, most of them continued
00:55to rely heavily on Russia in the years that followed.
00:58There were some exceptions to this trend.
01:00The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, for example, swiftly developed stronger
01:05ties with Europe thanks to their geographic proximity to places like Scandinavia and Poland.
01:11This made it easier for them to integrate into Western institutions, establish trade routes
01:16across the European Union, and even joined the EU in 2004.
01:20They were also able to sever their ties with Soviet-era power grids, halt Russian gas imports,
01:26and merge their power networks with continental Europe as well as enter the NATO alliance.
01:31For most of the other 11 near-abroad nations, however, Russia remained the primary provider
01:36of trade, energy, and security.
01:39Places like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, for example, have for decades depended on Russia to essentially
01:44prop up their economies.
01:46Many of these countries also have no other choice but to use Russia-controlled post-Soviet
01:51transport and logistic networks in order to export or import anything.
01:56And in order to support their families, plenty of young able-bodied Uzbeks, Tajiks, and other
02:01people from near-abroad countries have chosen to cross the border and seek employment in Russia,
02:06often working long hours in low-paid jobs, sending large parts of their salary home to help
02:11their loved ones.
02:12So, even though they were technically independent, many of these countries still effectively operated
02:18as though they were still in the Soviet Union.
02:20And that's exactly how Russia liked it.
02:22The Kremlin adored the idea of having close to a dozen countries that effectively relied
02:27on Moscow to survive.
02:28And even before Putin came to power, Russia exploited and extended its influence across these
02:33nations via various means.
02:35It locked countries into long-term trade deals and strict military alliances, interfered in
02:41their politics, supported separatist regions, and effectively enjoyed free reign to do whatever
02:46it wanted, whenever it wanted, safe in the knowledge that many of these countries had no other choice
02:51but to bend their knee.
02:52Once Putin became president, he continued this trend.
02:56In fact, he took it further, doing everything in his power to install puppet leaders in various
03:01countries like Belarus, enhancing their dependency on Russia, and making it harder for them to
03:05ever leave its sphere of influence.
03:07He wanted the near abroad to stay that way for decades to come, so that even if the Soviet Union
03:13no
03:13longer existed on the map, its echoes were still felt in areas like politics and trade.
03:18And if any nation showed any signs of straying, Putin would punish them.
03:22We saw this in Georgia in 2008, for example.
03:26In April of that year, NATO announced that Georgia would eventually join the alliance.
03:31Moscow took that announcement as a threat to its regional hegemony.
03:35It sensed that Georgia, under the leadership of the pro-Western president at the time,
03:40Mikhail Saakashvili, was drifting slowly but surely out of its orbit.
03:44So, it orchestrated an invasion, accusing the country of committing genocide and seizing
03:49control of separatist regions. We saw it again in 2014, this time in Ukraine.
03:54Russia could sense that Kyiv was moving closer to Europe.
03:58Widescale protests had broken out across the country, with the Ukrainian public pressuring
04:02the government to strengthen its economic and political ties with the Western world.
04:06Putin couldn't afford for that to happen. He hated the idea of the EU, or especially NATO,
04:12moving closer to Russia's doorstep, and he was extremely fearful of losing his ability to project
04:17power across the Black Sea. So, once more, he orchestrated an invasion, sending in a small,
04:23undercover army to seize control of the Crimean Peninsula. Unfortunately, the Western powers largely
04:28allowed all of this to happen, with US and European leaders essentially embracing the idea of the
04:34near abroad and accepting Russia's regional hegemony. As writer, analyst, and investigative
04:39journalist Casey Michelle notes in the Wall Street Journal, this includes such figures as Bill Clinton,
04:44who pressured Kazakhstan and Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons to Russia, and Barack Obama,
04:49who turned a blind eye to Russia's invasion of Georgia and soft-walked a response to Russia's
04:54initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Time and again, Russia was effectively allowed to rule over,
05:00interfere with, and even invade the former Soviet republics, and because it was such an important
05:05player on the global stage, with such immense influence over the world's economy and the geopolitical
05:10landscape, other countries never dared to challenge it. This, in part, is surely what fueled Putin's
05:16decision to invade Ukraine in 2022. It wasn't just that he was concerned about Ukraine getting closer to
05:22the West. It was because he believed that he could pick and take whatever he wanted from the nearer
05:26broad nations. He could send in his army and seize control of other countries' territories at will,
05:32not only expanding his own sphere of power, but also cementing his legacy as one of the greatest
05:37Russian rulers, the modern-day Peter the Great he always dreamed of becoming. Nobody had stopped him
05:43before, so why would this time be any different? It would be just like in Georgia and Crimea. The mighty
05:49Russian army would roll over the borders, take what it wanted, and Putin's special military operation
05:54would be yet another success. That's what he thought, but he was wrong on every level. Nothing
06:00about the operation has gone to plan. Russia has failed to achieve its objectives, it suffered
06:06catastrophic losses, its forces continued to toil and stall in key sectors, and worst of all, the rest of the
06:12world, including the nearer broad, has seen first-hand just how weak Moscow actually is. In many ways,
06:19Ukraine has set an example to all of those other old Soviet republics. It's shown them that they don't
06:24need to bend the knee and bow down to Russian pressure, that they can stand up to this country
06:28that has sought to bully them into submission for so many years, and that they can start to chart their
06:33own paths in the world as true independent countries. All they have to do is take the first step,
06:39and while some still have been a little reluctant to take that step, several of the former Soviet
06:43nations have at last started to turn their backs on Russia, shrinking the country's sphere of influence
06:49in the process, and leaving Putin with far less power than he had just a few years ago. As Michelle
06:54notes, years into Mr. Putin's failed war in Ukraine, however, Russia's dreams of becoming a great power
07:00are a fantasy. Russia is no longer even a primary regional power in areas it once lorded over.
07:07Armenia is one of the best examples of this, because it's long been one of the most dependent
07:11nations on Moscow. It was a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization ,
07:17for example, an intergovernmental military alliance which also includes Russia, Belarus,
07:23Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It housed Russian border guards and even allowed Russia to operate
07:29a military base in Armenia's second largest city. It also invested heavily in Russian energy and other
07:35resources and was in effect a vassal state for Moscow. Recent years, however, have seen the
07:40relationship between the two countries turn upside down. Realizing that Russia is no longer the
07:46reliable ally and security guarantor it once claimed to be, Yerevan has started to make some big moves.
07:52It froze its participation in the CSTO in 2024, for example, and has taken steps towards withdrawing from
07:59the alliance. It also forged new security relationships with countries like France, India and the United
08:05States, removed Russian border guards from several locations and even started discussions about the
08:10possibility of EU accession. The EU has welcomed Armenia warmly with a generous 52 million euro support
08:17package and Putin is running scared. In May 2026, he openly threatened Armenia with the Ukrainian
08:23scenario if it continued to deepen its ties with Europe. In the past, those words alone would have
08:29been enough to spread fear and panic among the Armenian government and public. Now, however,
08:34Putin's proclamations have lost their power and Armenia isn't the only one daring to defy the Russian
08:39leader. But before we look at some of the other nations turning their backs on Russia, this is why we
08:45make the military show to explain how power really moves. If you're new here, hit subscribe so you don't
08:51miss what's next. Moldova is another former Soviet state that isn't merely easing itself out of the Kremlin's
08:57control but positively sprinting away from Moscow as quickly as it can. Again, this is a country that has
09:04historically depended on Russia to survive. For decades, almost all of Moldova's energy needs were met by
09:10Moscow. Russia was also the country's main export partner and has even maintained a military presence in the
09:16breakaway region of Transnistria, a slender sliver of land along Moldova's eastern
09:20edge. Russia has relied on Transnistria to enjoy continuous influence over Moldova's politics and
09:27economy. But things are starting to change. Despite Russian attempts to meddle in the election,
09:33the Moldovan people voted in the pro-European president Maya Sandhu in 2020, with her Party of
09:39Action and Solidarity securing a majority the following year. In the years that have followed,
09:45especially since the invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has made massive strides away from Russia.
09:50It has strengthened ties with the EU and NATO, reduced its dependence on Russian resources,
09:55and like Armenia, pursued the idea of EU accession. Even in the Russian-speaking region of Transnistria,
10:01people are growing increasingly tired and frustrated, with many eager to reintegrate
10:05with the rest of the country. And the Moldovan government has been looking at plans to bring
10:09the region back into the fold after decades of separation. Further east, Kazakhstan too, has adopted an
10:16increasingly stern stance towards Moscow's actions in Ukraine. It has, for example, refused to accept
10:22Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories and has slowly begun seeking to establish and strengthen
10:27connections with other countries. We've seen Kazakhstan expand its trade with China, the European Union,
10:33and the Gulf states, for instance, as well as explore new defense deals with Turkey and Western
10:38partners. To further reduce its reliance on Russia, it's focused on developing and exploiting the
10:43Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, otherwise known as the Middle Corridor, an
10:49increasingly important trade route that connects China and Europe, passing through Central Asia,
10:54but never entering Russian territory. In May 2026, Kazakhstan also announced that its official history
11:00should no longer be linked to Russia or the Soviet Union, but should instead focus on its status as the
11:05modern-day successor to the medieval Golden Horde Steppe Empire. This may not seem all that important,
11:11but it's a powerful political message from Astana, a clear expression of the country's desire to be
11:16seen as an independent nation, separated completely from its colonial-style Soviet past. Kazakhstan's
11:22southeastern neighbor, Kyrgyzstan, has followed its example. When Russian historians argue that Kyrgyzstan
11:28shouldn't be classified as a former colony of Russia, for example, and demanded that their Kyrgyz counterparts
11:33rewrite their textbooks to adjust their terminology, Bishkek stood its ground. Historians and officials
11:39refuse to comply with the Kremlin's request, and younger Kyrgyz people, in particular, see Russia in
11:44an increasingly unfavorable light. As noted by scholar Erika Marat, who recently wrote,
11:50The perception of Russia and Kyrgyzstan has changed significantly since the full-scale invasion of
11:55Ukraine. Younger generations of scholars especially view servitization as an inherently colonial experience,
12:01on par with Europe's colonization of Africa and Asia. While Kyrgyzstan, for now, has little choice
12:07but to continue relying on Russia quite heavily for remittances, energy and security, it too is
12:13starting to look for opportunities elsewhere. November 2025, for example, witnessed the first-ever
12:19strategic meeting between Chinese and Kyrgyz foreign ministers, which may signal the start of an
12:24increasingly important relationship moving forward. It's a similar story elsewhere across Central Asia.
12:29The geographic conditions of the countries in this part of the world make it difficult for them to
12:34extract themselves from Russia's orbit entirely, but several are doing whatever they can to become
12:40less dependent on Moscow and open up new options. Uzbekistan, for example, has been expanding trade
12:46with China and seeking closer ties with Turkey, the EU and the Gulf states. Turkmenistan, meanwhile,
12:52has maintained a neutral stance over the war and started to export more resources towards China. And even in
12:58Tajikistan, where Russian control remains high, there are signs of Chinese economic influence
13:03becoming more important. The trend is only going to continue as the war goes on, as noted by American
13:09academic Walter Russell Mead in the Wall Street Journal. The longer the war goes on, the more Russian
13:14power in other former Soviet republics diminishes. The situation in the Caucasus in Central Asia is moving
13:21against Russia. The US, China and Turkey are all developing economic and even military links that
13:26threaten Russia's hopes for control in territories first conquered by the Tsars. As Mead notes, this
13:32trend is playing out all across the nearer broad nations. In the Caucasus, for example, opinion polls
13:37show that the vast majority, 71 percent of Georgians, want to see their country join the European Union,
13:43while Azerbaijani-Russian relations have hit all-time lows. Even in Belarus, we can see the signs that Russian
13:49influence is beginning to wane. That very statement would have seemed outrageous only a year or two ago,
13:55since Belarus has always been seen as the ultimate puppet state of the Putin regime.
13:59But this is a testament to how bad the situation has become for Moscow. In June 2026, for example,
14:06the Belarusian president and Putin ally, Alexander Lukashenko, effectively gave in to an ultimatum
14:13issued by his Ukrainian counterpart, Vladimir Zelensky. Zelensky had threatened Belarus with military
14:18action unless it disables signal relay stations that Russia was using to help guide Shahid attack
14:24drones towards targets in Ukraine. Even though Lukashenko has long been seen as Putin's personal
14:29lapdog, he still doesn't want to drag his country into the war any more than necessary. So he did as
14:35Zelensky demanded and physically made the war harder for Russia in the process. Lukashenko has also been
14:41spotted making several trips to China in recent times and the potential implications of these visits have not
14:47gone unnoticed. Commenting on the Belarusian president's presence in Beijing, Ukraine's center
14:52for countering disinformation, CCD, wrote, Lukashenko's latest visit to China, which he uses as a counterweight
14:59to Russia, is another indication of the growing trend of Russia's declining foreign policy influence. After
15:05Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Russia is now losing influence even over its main satellite.
15:11The idea of all these near abroad nations distancing themselves from Russia simply would have been
15:16possible prior to 2022. Before it invaded Ukraine, Russia certainly wasn't a perfect ally, partner or
15:23protector, but countries like Uzbekistan and Armenia at least felt that they could count on Moscow to aid
15:29with their economies and help them out as and when difficult situations arose. Now, those same nations
15:34see Russia in a completely different light and in many ways it's all Putin's fault. He invaded Ukraine
15:40believing it would show the world how strong Russia is. In reality, it did the opposite. The Kremlin's
15:46embarrassing failure to capture the Donbas and inability to achieve any of its stated objectives
15:51in Ukraine have actually revealed how weak it is. And the situation for Putin is becoming more
15:56humiliating by the day. All along the front lines, Russia forces are stalling. Ukraine is hitting back
16:02even harder than before, gaining ground in key areas and carrying out devastating long-range drone and
16:08missile strikes deep into the heart of Russia's regions, even striking the country's capital city.
16:13Kiev's forces are also making major steps towards liberating Crimea, something that seemed impossible
16:18only a few years ago and, as Michel notes, Mr. Putin's belief that he can conquer even the rest of
16:24the
16:25Donbas looks increasingly at odds with reality, highlighting how empty Russia's claims to regional
16:30hegemony now are. The whole world can see this, including the former Soviet republics,
16:36and they don't like what they see, because Russia has revealed its true colors. It's not an ally or
16:42guardian. It's not a mighty military superpower that the whole world should fear. It's a desperate bully
16:47that tried to push one of its victims too far, and now the whole class has turned against it.
16:52When we add the facts that Russia's population is declining, its economy is in ruins, and many of its
16:58domestic industries are collapsing due to the unhealthy monopoly of the defense sector,
17:02the evidence paints a clear and conclusive picture. The days of the Russian Federation as we know it,
17:07and especially the Putin regime, are well and truly numbered.
17:12Now, you can learn more about how the tide of battle has turned against Putin in this video,
17:16which explains how Ukrainian special forces orchestrated a decisive ambush against their opponents
17:21in a key location in Zaporizhia. Alternatively, find out just how bad life has gotten for Russian
17:27soldiers in this video, which explores how the average life expectancy for front-line assault
17:32troops is measured in mere minutes, not days. And finally, subscribe to The Military Show for
17:37more breaking news, insights, and analysis of the war in Ukraine.
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