Russia is reinforcing Crimea’s coastlines as Ukraine intensifies its campaign to isolate the peninsula. Drone strikes are crippling supply routes, cutting off logistics, and fueling fears in Moscow that a massive operation could be coming. Is Putin preparing for Ukraine’s version of D-Day? In this video, we examine Russia’s growing panic, Ukraine’s evolving strategy, and whether Crimea could become the decisive battlefield that changes the course of the war forever.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine Crimea Amphibious Landing Terrifies Putin
02:18 - Ukraine Drone Strikes Cut Crimea Logistics by 71%
05:55 - Russia Defenses in Crimea Compared to Omaha Beach
10:14 - Ukraine Launches 5000 Drones Monthly Against Russia
13:39 - Risks of a Ukraine Two Front Crimea Invasion
15:46 - Can Ukraine Force a Russian Withdrawal From Crimea
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/n2C1EhcY
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine Crimea Amphibious Landing Terrifies Putin
02:18 - Ukraine Drone Strikes Cut Crimea Logistics by 71%
05:55 - Russia Defenses in Crimea Compared to Omaha Beach
10:14 - Ukraine Launches 5000 Drones Monthly Against Russia
13:39 - Risks of a Ukraine Two Front Crimea Invasion
15:46 - Can Ukraine Force a Russian Withdrawal From Crimea
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/n2C1EhcY
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NewsTranscript
00:00For months, Ukraine has been executing a brilliant plan against occupied Crimea.
00:04Middle-strike drones fly non-stop to pelt Russian logistics feeding into the peninsula,
00:10and long-range drones strike deep into Crimea itself to shatter the defenses that Russia has
00:15built up. Crimea is being isolated, left stranded in a war where it was supposed to be the centerpiece,
00:22and now Ukraine is preparing for something huge. Russia knows it. Putin believes that
00:28Ukraine's D-Day is coming, and Russia's worst nightmare is going to happen. The landing
00:33operation will be massive. Any belief Putin had that Crimea was safe has disappeared.
00:39Now all that Russia can do is desperately try to prepare for what it believes to be inevitable.
00:43And that's the thing. As Ukraine keeps its plans for Crimea under wraps, it's from Russia's actions
00:49that we see Putin's fear about a possible D-Day taking place. On June 17, United24 media reported
00:56on comments made by Dmitry Pletinchuk, who is the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy.
01:01He revealed that Russia has started to reinforce its defensive positions along the coastlines within
01:06occupied Crimea. Why? Putin is terrified that Ukraine is preparing to pull off a counter-invasion
01:13to snatch the occupied peninsula away from Russia once and for all, perhaps using an amphibious landing
01:19to do the job. As we speak, what Russia views as the most vulnerable parts of the Crimean coastline
01:24are being shored up, Pletinchuk reveals, and he adds that Russia sees the possibility of a landing
01:30as a very real issue that needs to be countered. In any case, the enemy considers this an absolutely
01:36real threat. The Russians are actively strengthening areas in Crimea vulnerable to landings because they
01:42believe in such a possibility, Pletinchuk said in an interview with the Kiev Independent.
01:46He also revealed one of the reasons why Russia is so scared of what it believes is coming.
01:51The belief in an amphibious landing hasn't come out of nowhere.
01:55Ukraine's Navy has been practicing for just this kind of thing, Pletinchuk claims.
01:59Training is ongoing and special operations conducted by Ukraine have fed into the Russian fear,
02:05as Ukraine's drones continue a campaign designed to isolate the peninsula and perhaps lay the
02:10groundwork for the type of attack that Putin would have never believed could happen when he launched
02:15his invasion. Russia worries that D-Day Part 2 is coming. But why is Russia so scared?
02:22Beyond the Ukrainian training we just mentioned, it's what Russia has been forced to watch happen
02:26over the last few months that makes its military high command believe that something massive is
02:32heading toward Crimea. The peninsula is being turned into an island as Ukraine engages in a non-stop
02:37operation to isolate Crimea from all of the logistical arteries that enable Russia to keep it supplied
02:43with soldiers and military equipment. Ukraine's defense minister, Mikhailo Fedorov, says that his
02:49campaign to divorce Crimea from the occupied territories in Ukraine and the Kerch bridge that
02:53keeps the peninsula connected to Russia is going exactly according to Ukraine's plan.
02:58This isolation will turn into an island, the peninsula that Putin stole from Ukraine in 2014,
03:04and that could lead to very unexpected consequences for the Russians, Euromiden Press reports Fedorov
03:10claiming during an interview with Ukraine's Pressing channel. As vague as this may sound from Ukraine's
03:16defense minister, it's a warning to Russia. Does that warning mean an amphibious assault is coming?
03:22It's hard to say. But what we know for sure is that Ukraine is laying groundwork that could make such
03:27an assault possible. For the past few weeks, Ukraine's new generation of middle strike drones
03:32has been wreaking havoc on the logistical network that supports Crimea. Fedorov reveals that the Ukrainian
03:38defense ministry built up to this campaign of isolation by contracting 300% more middle strike
03:43drones during the first four months of 2026 than it did in all of 2025, though Ukraine's president
03:49Volodymyr Zelensky says that the number is even higher. He claims a 500% increase. Whatever the case
03:56may be, May and June have seen this massive increase in middle strike drones pay dividends against Crimea.
04:02Since the end of May, Ukraine has made the key R-280 highway that connects Russia, southern Ukraine,
04:08and Crimea into an absolute hellscape. Traffic along that road has decreased by 71%
04:14since these strikes began, claims the commander of Ukraine's unmanned systems forces, Robert Brovdy.
04:20With the R-280 being gradually made useless to Russia, Ukraine has started attacking bridges
04:25all over the occupied territories that feed into the peninsula. A June 9th strike caused the
04:30complete suspension of transportation across that bridge, forcing diversions to alternative routes
04:35that run through Armiensk and Perikop. Multiple strikes have been recorded at the bridge that
04:40connects Hanichesk and the Arabat-Spit, also in Kherson, as have strikes in Armiensk designed to
04:46cut off one of the alternative routes that Russia tried to create. One such strike, carried out ahead
04:51of June 11th, saw Ukraine take out 50 supply trucks and fuel tankers Russia was attempting to send
04:56through Armiensk and into Crimea. And that's the point. Cutting off all of these roads stops fuel,
05:03food, supplies, and soldiers from getting into Crimea. None of this is random. It's all part of an
05:09extremely well coordinated campaign to cut Crimea off from every territory that allows Russia to
05:14sustain its presence on the peninsula. As United24 media puts it, Ukraine's strikes have caused
05:20constant disruption to Russia's Crimean supply lines, in a campaign that seems to have been designed to
05:26starve out the Russians occupying the peninsula. But what if there's more to it than that?
05:31What if Ukraine isn't just looking to isolate, but is preparing an amphibious landing,
05:36just as Russia fears? That would explain the defenses, but there's still the difficult topic
05:40of how Ukraine would pull off something like this. In a moment we're going to explore more of
05:44Pletinchuk's comments and what Ukraine might have planned. But before we do, this is a reminder
05:49that you're watching The Military Show. If you're enjoying this video, then remember to subscribe
05:53so you can see more from our channel. So, an amphibious landing.
05:56What would happen if Ukraine attempted its own D-Day in Crimea?
06:00We have seen just the smallest hints of what Ukraine might plan in the past.
06:04Back in August 2023, Ukrainian forces carried out what they dubbed a special operation on the
06:10Crimean Peninsula. That operation involved Ukrainian military intelligence, which landed a small contingent
06:16of forces in Crimea, using waterborne vessels that landed near settlements of Mayak and Olenivka.
06:21The operation saw Ukraine soldiers engage in combat, causing at least 30 Russian casualties,
06:27and damaging four Russian high-speed boats before the operatives left the peninsula.
06:32At the time, the operation was significant because it demonstrated that Ukraine was capable
06:36of landing soldiers on Crimea, but now it might be a blueprint. Still, this was a very small operation.
06:43It shows us that Ukraine can sneak soldiers into Crimea under the cover of darkness,
06:48cause some casualties, then get out. The plan is to gradually send soldiers into infiltrate,
06:53then this might be a workable strategy. However, the Russian force stationed in Crimea would likely
06:57overwhelm such groups if they stick around for too long. The Crimean Peninsula is about 26,500
07:04square kilometers, which is a fair amount of ground to cover. It's more than five and a half times the
07:094,700 square kilometers of Ukraine that the BBC reports Russia stole from Ukraine in 2025, for
07:15instance. It's also difficult to determine how many soldiers Russia has stationed in Crimea,
07:20with the most recent estimates coming from before Putin launched his invasion.
07:24Back in July 2020, UKR Inform reported that Russia had 32,500 soldiers on the peninsula,
07:31with 11,500 composing a land force. The number may be higher now, or given Crimea's role as a
07:37logistical node that funnels troops into occupied Ukraine, it could even be lower.
07:41Still, that's a lot of soldiers for small groups landing by sea to take on.
07:45A larger landing would be needed for Ukraine to liberate Crimea from Russia completely.
07:49None of this means that Ukraine wouldn't use small special operations groups like the one we saw in
07:542023. Those types of groups could be deployed along the Crimean coast to destroy defenses and create
07:59fortifications to prepare for larger groups. But they wouldn't be able to take Crimea alone,
08:04and Pletinchuk notes that himself. He says that any D-Day-like landing on Crimea would have to be
08:09carried out as part of a much larger and more complex offensive action that likely also focuses
08:14on liberating large portions of the southern-occupied regions that link to Crimea.
08:18We mentioned D-Day a few times already. That's because Pletinchuk made the direct comparison himself
08:23when talking about an amphibious landing on Crimea. So perhaps we could look to D-Day to give us some
08:29insight into what Ukraine would have to pull off to make this type of landing possible.
08:33Specifically, Pletinchuk brings up the storming of Omaha Beach and uses it as an example of the
08:39sorts of defenses that Ukraine would face. Mines in the water and across the coast that Ukraine
08:43uses for a landing would have to be navigated, as would ground defenses designed to slow soldiers down
08:48such as barbed wire and trenches. Machine gun nests and bunkers would also be firing on Ukraine's
08:54soldiers at all times. Plus, Ukraine attacking from the sea means it's unlikely to have much
08:59in the way of air defenses, allowing Russia's forces to bring in air support. Sticking with Omaha Beach,
09:05the National World War II Museum says that around 160,000 Allied troops were involved in the D-Day
09:10landings and that 34,000 Americans landed on Omaha. The entire operation cost the Allies more than 10,300
09:18casualties, 2,400 of which were experienced on Omaha Beach. But here's a really important detail.
09:25The Allies used 7,000 naval vessels, including around 4,000 landing craft in the D-Day landings,
09:32along with 12,000 aircraft providing support. If storming Crimea is supposed to look anything like
09:38that, then Ukraine has a problem. Ukraine barely has a navy to speak of. Global firepower,
09:44which ranks 145 militaries around the world, using a special index that assesses everything from
09:49manpower to available assets, says that Ukraine's navy consists of 169 ships, the vast majority of
09:57which are patrol vessels. The same outlet says that Ukraine has 347 aerial assets, so the level of air
10:03support seen during D-Day wouldn't be available to Ukraine if it launches an amphibious invasion
10:08against occupied Crimea. So the idea is out, right? Not necessarily. 2026 is a long way removed from
10:161944 and that means that Ukraine has opportunities to carry out its attempted landings in a way that's
10:22very different than what we saw at Omaha Beach. First things first, Ukraine does have to get boots on
10:27the ground. Pletinchuk himself says as much as he points out that it's impossible to liberate Crimea
10:32without getting soldiers to the peninsula and keeping them there. However, the thing about D-Day is that it was
10:38the
10:38largest amphibious landing ever conceived, meaning that much more than Omaha Beach was involved.
10:43The Allies stormed five different beaches as they worked to create a through-line from the sea and
10:48deeper into France. Ukraine doesn't have to do that and it's also looking to retake a peninsula that is
10:53far smaller than France. That plays in Ukraine's favor. If the older reports about Russia having
10:59about 32,500 soldiers stationed in Crimea holds up, that's another benefit for Ukraine. It means that
11:05Ukraine doesn't have to dedicate as massive a force as was required for D-Day. Plus, Ukraine's strategy
11:11of isolating Crimea means that the soldiers stationed there are being cut off from supplies
11:16and Russia is going to struggle to move reserves into the peninsula if Ukraine launches an attack.
11:21However, the biggest weapon that Ukraine has for this type of landing are those that don't
11:25require soldiers operating them at all. Drones. They change the game. That air support during Ukraine's
11:32D-Day could come from drones in their thousands rather than aircraft. Imagine constant waves of
11:37middle strike drones hitting bunkers and machine gun posts. Flamingo drone missile hybrids smashing
11:42into defenses. All of this ahead of the Ukrainian soldiers who are landing and attempting to advance.
11:48Ukraine could even coordinate wave after wave of drones ahead of a landing attempt,
11:52shattering Russian defenses before any soldiers touch the beaches. Ukraine has the drones to do it too.
11:58According to the New York Times, Ukraine is now at the point where it can launch around 5,000 medium
12:03and long-range drones per month. Focusing that firepower on the defenses that Russia is attempting
12:08to erect on the Crimean coast could go a long way towards supporting a landing. Speaking of an amphibious
12:14landing, it's true that Ukraine doesn't have anywhere near the number of landing vessels needed to make
12:19something like Omaha Beach possible. But what it does have is maritime drones. And those drones could serve
12:25the crucial roles of launching kamikaze attacks against any warships that Russia tries to use to
12:30stop Ukraine's assault. They could even function in a similar way to take out Russian naval mines,
12:36opening up gaps for Ukraine's few patrol boats and landing vessels to get troops onto the Crimean
12:41beaches. Again, Ukraine has been working on the technology. The Toloka underwater drone has been
12:47developed in Ukraine and could either work on getting rid of Russia's mines or pointing kamikaze drones in the
12:53right direction. Ukraine has also developed a drone called the Sea Trident which carries a 1,000
12:58kilogram warhead that can sink large ships or shatter coastal infrastructure, RBC Ukraine reports.
13:05What we're seeing here is that Ukraine's version of D-Day would be very different from what happened
13:09in 1944. Ukraine may be able to set up for landing soldiers by using drones to destroy Russia's coastal
13:15defenses long before those soldiers land on the beaches. Of course, drones can't do all of the work.
13:20But the more they destroy, especially if Crimea is isolated, the weaker the Russian defense against
13:26the landing that can't be conducted at the same scale as the one on Omaha Beach. Perhaps using drones,
13:31the sort of small scale landings we saw in 2023, might be enough for Ukraine to establish a through
13:36line deeper into Crimea. Having said that, this is admittedly an optimistic view of how Ukraine could
13:42launch an amphibious assault against Crimea. This is an operation that will be fraught with challenges,
13:47and that can't be ignored. Rand points out that Crimea has about 750 kilometers of shoreline that
13:53Russia can fortify. While this large coast provides ample opportunities for Ukraine to bring soldiers
13:58into the fight, it's also difficult to cover when Ukraine has limited access to landing ships and air
14:04power. The likelihood is that Ukraine would attempt to combine an amphibious assault with an attack via land,
14:10but that is also an approach that is fraught with risk. Rand points out that Crimea is connected to
14:15mainland Ukraine by a single strip of land that is only a few kilometers wide and is likely to be
14:20very well fortified by Russia. Now, Ukraine could consider a two-front attack, especially if it continues
14:26its isolation campaign against Crimea. Yes, the approach would be damaging. Ukraine would likely
14:31lose thousands of soldiers in the process. But if Russia can't resupply or get reserves into Crimea,
14:37it will become a battle of attrition that Ukraine could potentially win. And with Ukraine reportedly
14:42increasing its drone production up to 7 million annually in 2026, the drone-heavy approach we
14:47discussed for the Crimean coast could be applied to the small strip of land Ukraine's ground troops
14:52would have to navigate to get into Crimea. Ukraine also appears to be close to pushing Russia out of
14:57the Kimburn Spit, which is a small piece of land in the Mykolaiv Oblast that juts into the Black Sea
15:03and
15:03lies west of Crimea. When Russia took that spit, it used the land to launch drones into Ukraine. Retaking the
15:09Kimburn Spit could allow Ukraine to do the same against Crimea, further weakening Russia's isolated
15:14Crimean defenses. Still, there's no denying a simple fact. An amphibious assault or a combined
15:20amphibious and ground assault against Crimea will put thousands of Ukrainian troops in the Russian
15:25firing line. It would also require Ukraine to place most of its focus on the assault, which could
15:30lead to weaknesses elsewhere, such as in the Donbass region that Putin is trying to take in Russia's
15:35spring and summer offensive. We're not saying that retaking Crimea in the way that Russia worries
15:40Ukraine might isn't possible. It just might not be prudent, especially when Ukraine can follow a
15:45different strategy. That campaign of isolation that could set up for an amphibious landing could
15:50instead serve as a sort of blockade against Crimea. Ukraine has already battered the Black Sea
15:55fleet so badly that it's been forced to withdraw from its Crimean base, and the attacks on logistical
16:00arteries are cutting off fuel and supplies to the point where we're seeing shortages of both already
16:05arising on the peninsula. Ukraine has already turned Crimea into an island, as Fedorov claims,
16:11and it's an island that is surrounded by war. Maybe the best strategy is to keep doing what it's doing,
16:17hitting Crimea and the surrounding regions from afar, with the goal being to make life on the peninsula
16:21so hellish for the Russian occupiers that they want to leave. Forcing withdrawal could be the best
16:26method that Ukraine has, and it's something that Ukraine clearly has in mind. There has to be a
16:32reason why Ukraine hasn't destroyed the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia, and it's likely to
16:37ensure that Russia's soldiers and people have an escape route available from Crimea. Whatever approach
16:42Ukraine takes, Russia is clearly worried. It wouldn't be shoring up its coastal defenses if it didn't
16:48think an amphibious assault was at least possible. But for Ukraine, such an assault comes with risk,
16:53however mitigated that risk might be when drones enter the equation. So perhaps it's a case of
16:58waiting Russia out, keep Crimea isolated, make holding the peninsula untenable, and then conduct
17:04a landing that looks less like D-Day and more like a triumphant military arriving to claim what it's
17:09already won. Only time will tell what Ukraine does next. For now, Ukraine will happily keep Russia
17:15guessing and panicking in Crimea. The Kinburn spit could well be the key to retaking Crimea. We mentioned
17:21earlier that Russian forces are withdrawing from that scrap of land, and we dug deeper into what's
17:26happening and why in another video. The retreat is chaotic. The potential ramifications are massive.
17:32You can find out about both and much more if you check out our coverage. And if you enjoyed this
17:36video,
17:37hit subscribe to get your daily dose of the military show and our analysis. And thank you as always for
17:42watching.
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