After years of backing Putin and threatening Ukraine, Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko has made a stunning reversal. In a rare apology to President Zelenskyy, he now calls Belarus joining the war “absurd” and urges peace. What changed? From Ukraine’s growing military power to Russia’s failure to protect its allies, this video breaks down the three key reasons Lukashenko is suddenly backing down—and why Belarus now fears Ukraine more than ever.
00:00 - Lukashenko’s Shocking U-Turn
02:42 - The History of Putin's Puppet
06:14 - The Real Reason for the Apology
07:38 - Russia’s Broken Promises of Protection
11:10 - Ukraine’s Deadly Deep Strike Threat
14:09 - Why Belarus Cannot Fight Ukraine
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/VvpNTVrr
00:00 - Lukashenko’s Shocking U-Turn
02:42 - The History of Putin's Puppet
06:14 - The Real Reason for the Apology
07:38 - Russia’s Broken Promises of Protection
11:10 - Ukraine’s Deadly Deep Strike Threat
14:09 - Why Belarus Cannot Fight Ukraine
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/VvpNTVrr
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NewsTranscript
00:00He had threatened and cajoled. On June 15th, Belarus' dictator dropped a bombshell unlike
00:06any other. This wasn't a threat. It wasn't a grand proclamation about the inevitability of
00:11Russia's victory in Ukraine. For the first time in four years, Lukashenko has woken up
00:16and realized that maybe, just maybe, being Putin's lapdog isn't exactly great for a country that
00:22borders the 2026 version of Ukraine, which could send missiles and drones into Belarus in a
00:28heartbeat. And now, after years of threats and claims, Lukashenko is doing the one thing that
00:34Putin never expected him to do, apologizing and backing down. In its report on an interview
00:39Lukashenko gave to the Al Arabiya outlet, the Kyiv Post reveals that the Belarusian dictator
00:44has done a complete 180 in his rhetoric and is now calling for peace between Russia and Ukraine.
00:51Lukashenko labeled the very prospect of Belarus getting involved in Putin's war as
00:55absurd and went to great lengths to point out that his ancestors are buried in Ukraine
01:00and that many in his country have close ties to the victims of Putin's ambition.
01:05Belarusian families live in Ukraine and Ukrainian families live in Belarus and in our south.
01:10There are joint families. They got married, raised children and lived like normal people.
01:15There was no border, Lukashenko said as he waxed lyrical about a more peaceful time
01:19before Putin started his rampage. We have the feeling that somebody has just swallowed a big
01:24dose of buyer's remorse, and there are plenty of reasons why Lukashenko is backpedaling.
01:30Lukashenko's claims of Ukraine and Belarus once living in harmony are a complete turnaround from the
01:34rhetoric that he has spent the entire war spouting. For over four years, Lukashenko has been the loyal
01:40lapdog, aggrandizing Putin at every turn, allying his country with Russia, and calling Ukrainian
01:46President Volodymyr Zelensky every name in the book, including once labelling him as scum.
01:52Now, in addition to his longing for a simpler time, Lukashenko has also sent an apology directly
01:57to Ukraine and its leader. If Volodymyr Oleksandrovich was offended, I apologize to him for these words,
02:04Lukashenko said, using the middle name of Ukraine's president for some reason. He added that Ukraine can
02:09rest assured that there is no fight coming from his country. No military action should be expected from
02:14Belarus and especially from me. Granted, Lukashenko colored this apology with claims that he only
02:20made the remarks that he made due to Ukrainian threats about how it could take him out if it
02:24needed to. But even with that excuse, this is a remarkable transformation in the stance that
02:29Lukashenko is taking toward Ukraine. And to understand just how remarkable, we need to take a
02:34journey through a war in which Lukashenko has for so long been happy to play the role of marionette to
02:40Putin's puppet master. We start in February 2022. Belarus didn't shy away from getting involved in
02:46the war back then, when Putin was amassing his forces and Russia was simultaneously claiming
02:51that it wasn't about to invade Ukraine, while preparing a so-called special military operation
02:56that was supposed to result in Ukraine's fall in just a matter of days. Lukashenko bought into the bull.
03:02Seemingly convinced that Putin and his forces would steamroll Ukraine,
03:06the Belarusian dictator allowed Putin to not only plant troops on his territory,
03:11but to use Belarus as one of the staging grounds for the entire invasion.
03:15Over the winter before Putin invaded, over 30,000 Russian troops entered Belarus under the guise of a
03:22training exercise. But what they were really doing was preparing to cross the 1,084-kilometer border
03:28that Belarus shares with Ukraine. On February 24, 2022, they did just that. And though Russia made some
03:35rapid progress early on, reportedly coming close to capturing Zelensky himself during the early hours,
03:40the Guardian reported in April 2022, Ukraine mounted a fearsome defense. Russia was pushed back.
03:46Soon, a wave of Western support came flowing in, and the nation that was supposed to be steamrolled
03:50started its evolution into the military power that it is today. That should have been a warning for
03:56Lukashenko. The all-powerful Russia's failure to capture a much smaller nation should have told
04:01Lukashenko that his trust in the power of Putin was misplaced. But the tough talk and support for
04:06Russia continued for over four years. Lukashenko certainly had plenty to say after Belorussian
04:12anti-government organization Bipole took out a Russian A-50 AWACS plane that was stationed at the
04:18Mashalishchi airbase in Belarus in February 2023. Two explosions took out $350 million of Russian hardware
04:25in the process. It appeared Lukashenko was ignoring yet another warning.
04:30Lukashenko continued to provide support for Putin, along with carrying out joint military exercises in
04:35Russia, often close enough to Ukraine's border to make it clear that these exercises were supposed
04:40to be a threat. In January 2025, Lukashenko declared that he had no regrets about allowing
04:46Russia to use Belarus as an invasion staging ground, going so far as to claim that Putin is like his
04:52older
04:52brother. At the time, there was no sign of the 180 we've just seen. And if anything, Lukashenko started to
04:59ramp up the tough talk in 2026. On May 12, Lukashenko appeared to lose his mind as he declared that
05:05Belarus was going to selectively mobilize military units to prepare them for war. He did add the caveat
05:12of, God willing, it can be avoided. But all indicators seem to point towards Belarus' dictator
05:17preparing his country for a fight, and there could only be one nation that Belarus would have to fight,
05:22Ukraine. The remarks came in the wake of inspections and exercises having been carried
05:27out involving 6,000 reservists and personnel. And speaking about exercises, Belarus seemed to take
05:33an even larger step toward becoming more directly involved in the Ukraine war than it had ever been
05:38before. May 21 saw trucks carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles rumble into the forests of
05:44Belarus. They were there as part of a series of military exercises conducted in the country's
05:49territory alongside Russia. Both Putin and Lukashenko watched the exercises, which were created to ensure
05:55that Belarusian soldiers would be able to prepare and deploy tactical nuclear weapons as soon as Russia
06:01commanded. After three days of drills had come to an end, it seemed for all the world that Lukashenko had
06:06finally handed the Belarusian military over to Russia to do with as it will. But now here we are.
06:12Less than a month after those drills were completed, Lukashenko is apologizing to Zelenskyy,
06:16claiming that his declarations that Ukraine's leader is scum and a Nazi were made in anger and
06:22were unfair to a man who is fighting for his country's collective life. So the question has to be
06:26asked, why has Lukashenko backed down and apologized? We could point to all sorts of reasons, such as the
06:32fact that May 20 saw the new voice of Ukraine reveal that 80% of Belarusians opposed the notion
06:38of their country participating in Putin's war. That would have been a splash of cold water delivered
06:43to Lukashenko's face. As he got all hot and bothered on Putin's command, the vast majority of his people
06:49were telling him that they absolutely would not accept the call to war that Lukashenko seemed to be
06:54preparing. Saving his own skin to maintain his dictatorship may well have been all of the
06:59motivation that Lukashenko needed to crawl at least partially from underneath Putin's thumb.
07:04But there is more to it than that. Beyond mere self-preservation, there are three reasons why
07:09Lukashenko has just conducted the 180 that nobody saw coming, and all three have combined to force the
07:15Belarusian dictator onto his knees as he bows down to Ukraine. However, we have a quick side note before
07:21we dig deeper. This is the military show, and what you are seeing is the reason why we make videos.
07:26To show how power moves and what influences the decisions that men like Lukashenko make.
07:32If you want to see, make sure that you are subscribed to the channel.
07:35So, the three reasons. The first has nothing to do with Ukraine. It is all about Russia.
07:40During his interview, Lukashenko revealed that for all of his tough talk, he knows that Belarus would
07:45almost certainly be wholly reliant on Russia for defense if it ever got directly involved in the Ukraine
07:50war. That much has always been a given, but the big reveal here is that Lukashenko knows what this
07:55really means. Belarus couldn't rely on Russia to provide enough help to protect its territory.
08:00Joining the conflict would be unacceptable and would leave Belarus vulnerable, Lukashenko says,
08:06as he asserts that he has said as much to Putin before. We have said many times that it is
08:11absolutely
08:11unacceptable for the war between Ukraine and Russia to spill over onto the territory of Belarus.
08:16Belarus. Putin and I discuss this issue, Lukashenko claims.
08:19This is a rare moment of clarity for Belarus' insane dictator, but it is not a revelation that
08:24has come out of nowhere. For as crazy as Lukashenko can appear to be, he is at least smart enough
08:30to see
08:31that the last couple of years have shown just how much Russia's supposed protection means when push
08:35comes to shove. Putin spent years building Russia's geopolitical influence on the promise of
08:40delivering protection to allies. But that facade started to crumble back in December 2024 when
08:47Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and his regime crumbled under a rapid rebel uprising. Putin did
08:53nothing to protect a man who was supposed to be one of his closest allies and had even privately
08:58started to grow frustrated with al-Assad for refusing to offer concessions in negotiations prior to his fall.
09:04Fast forward to 2026 and Lukashenko has watched things go from bad to worse for leaders who ally
09:10themselves with Russia. Nicolas Maduro, who led Venezuela and was building strong ties with Russia,
09:15was taken out of commission by a January US raid that led to him being detained and extracted.
09:21At the start of Operation Epic Fury in Iran, the US killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
09:26In both cases, these leaders had spent heavily on Russian weapons and trusted that Putin would go
09:31into bat for them if they ever faced threats. But just as we saw with al-Assad, Russia did little
09:36more
09:37than issue weak condemnations as all of its supposed support crumbled. Even as recently as April,
09:42Lukashenko would have seen Russia's Africa Corps withdraw from a key settlement in Mali,
09:47once again showcasing how little Putin's promises of protection mean when they're put to the test.
09:52Even somebody like Lukashenko can't ignore the clear message that this sends,
09:56even when he has the benefit of a ruling country that is directly connected to Russia.
10:00If Belarus starts a fight with Ukraine, Russia won't be there to help. And Lukashenko knows it.
10:07That's why he's saying that Belarus is vulnerable. He's watched entire regimes fall as Putin did
10:12nothing. And he's watched for years as Russian air defense systems fail over and over to stop
10:17Ukrainian drones and missiles from striking targets on Russian territory. Over-promising and then under
10:22delivering on protection is the Russian way. Putin's credibility has been shot to pieces by his own
10:27actions. States that might have been falling under Russia's sway such as Nicaragua, Cuba and many small
10:33African nations that have watched what happened in Mali are now questioning the wisdom of trusting
10:38Russia when it's become clear that Putin will always look out for number one. Lukashenko is likely
10:43asking himself the same questions that those nations are asking. And though it's too late for him to simply
10:48avoid throwing his eggs into the Russian basket, he's now trying to carefully remove those eggs because
10:54he knows that he can't trust Russia to back Belarus in a fight. Nobody can. But let's come back to
10:59that
10:59comment about Belarus being vulnerable. That claim is more revealing than you might realize, as it
11:04doesn't just refer to how unlikely it is that Russia will be able to protect Belarus. It also shows us
11:09the
11:09second reason why Lukashenko is issuing apologies and trying to backpedal away from an entire war's worth
11:15of bluster. Belarus's dictator knows that Ukraine could hit his territory at will and there's nothing
11:21he would be able to do to stop it. So they're striking targets. They're not hitting the front.
11:26The Ukrainians are striking civilians, historical and cultural monuments, oil refineries and factories.
11:31They're striking all over Russia, all the way to the Urals with drones. That's the kind of war we have
11:36now,
11:37Lukashenko claimed in his interview. Let's back up for a second before we explore what this really means.
11:42Civilians, Lukashenko? If anybody is doing that, it's Russia and you know it.
11:47According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, 16,126 Ukrainian
11:53civilians are confirmed to be dead as a result of Russian strikes, with another 46,590 being injured
12:00as of May 31st. On June 15th, the very day that Lukashenko made his apology, a Russian strike killed
12:0711 people. It's Russia that targets civilians, not Ukraine. However, the core of
12:12Lukashenko's message is that Ukraine has developed a capability that Putin likely assured him would
12:16never exist. Deep strikes are the name of the game for Ukraine, especially in 2026,
12:22and the Belarusian dictator is watching target after target burn in Russia. The numbers tell the story.
12:28May saw Ukraine log its heaviest deep strike month of 2026 so far as it attacked 18 oil and gas
12:35facilities
12:36across Russia using drones and missiles, along with many other targets. According to The Economist,
12:41Ukraine is on track to complete 800 strikes on Russian territory by the end of the year,
12:46assuming it maintains the same pace that we've seen so far in 2026.
12:50When Lukashenko says that Belarus is vulnerable, what he means is that the country can't do a thing
12:55to stop Ukraine's aerial assaults, and those assaults would come thick and fast.
12:59Belarus borders Ukraine, which makes it incredibly easy to hit. And at just 207,595 square kilometers,
13:08Belarus is also a much smaller target to hit than Russia. All of its valuable hardware and
13:13industrial facilities are compacted rather than spread around a vast nation, as is the case with
13:18Russia. If Ukraine chooses to strike, it would have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to targets,
13:23and Belarus simply wouldn't be able to stop the onslaught.
13:27Belarus is very vulnerable militarily because Belarus is exposed to the Ukrainian military
13:31like we are in the open palm of their hand. We fully understand that our key life support facilities,
13:36industrial and logistical, would come under attack, Lukashenko said, and he's absolutely right.
13:42Ukraine has Belarus' number, militarily speaking, and there is nothing to gain from Lukashenko following
13:47through on all of his tough talk. So he's taking the opposite approach, begging for forgiveness in the
13:53hope that he'll never have to see Ukrainian drones fly into the energy facilities of a country that
13:57earns about $2 billion per year from selling refined oil products or acting as a middleman for Russian
14:02oil and gas sales. And so we come to the final reason why Lukashenko just did a 180. And again,
14:09it's hinted at in one of the quotes we shared. Lukashenko realizes that Belarus is exposed to Ukraine's
14:15military in the aerial battle, but that exposure extends to every aspect of the Belarusian military.
14:21The simple fact is that a minnow like Belarus simply can't compare to Ukraine's strength,
14:26which is an issue compounded by the Russian protection dilemma that we've already mentioned.
14:30Let's look at the numbers.
14:31On May 20th, in the wake of Lukashenko's threats about mobilization, the new voice of Ukraine reported
14:36on comments made by a Ukrainian member of parliament named Roman Besmerzny. He revealed that Belarus has
14:43a conscript army of about 46,000 soldiers, but it has a colossal shortage of ammunition and equipment,
14:49especially in the armored vehicle department, to support that army. Russia has siphoned off most of
14:54the stockpiles that Belarus has, Besmerzny said, which practically leaves Belarus defenseless. Even if the
15:00army had supplies, Ukraine is at the point where it's causing over 30,000 casualties per month against
15:06Russia's army. That's two-thirds of the Belarusian military wiped out in a single month, and the
15:11rest won't last to see the end of next month. There is literally nothing, militarily speaking,
15:16that Belarus can hold over Ukraine outside of Russia stationing nukes on its territory.
15:21Ukraine has 900,000 active personnel in its ranks and 4 million reservists, Global Firepower points out.
15:28Ukraine spends $45 billion per year on its defense, which is also 45 times more than Belarus.
15:35Ukraine has doubled the number of aircraft and far more experience in flying them,
15:39along with double the number of tanks and close to 40,000 more armored vehicles.
15:43Then there are the drones. Millions of FPV drones, tens of thousands of long-range
15:48and mid-range strike drones. This metal army is unlike anything that Belarus will have faced in
15:53its entire history, and it would end any fight that Lukashenko tries to start in a heartbeat.
15:59Take these three issues and you get why one of Putin's favorite puppets is backing up and bowing down to
16:05The war is practically taking place in our own backyard. We don't want this war,
16:09because we could suffer just as much as the Ukrainians and Russians are suffering,
16:12Lukashenko said as his interview came to a close. He added,
16:16and I have always believed that this conflict should be ended and peace agreements should be
16:19reached between the conflicting parties. Well, you haven't always believed that, have you,
16:23Lukashenko? You wouldn't have supported Putin for so long and so directly if you did.
16:27But now Lukashenko finally seems to have realized that here's a minnow trying to square up to a
16:33Ukrainian titan. The fight would be hopeless. Belarus would be wiped off the map or as 80% of
16:38the population don't support participation in the war and they would simply refuse to fight.
16:43Lukashenko may be backing down because he's terrified. Still, it's something and it's better
16:48late than never. Putin's puppet has just cut a string. Maybe more will follow in the months to come.
16:53What we are seeing here seems to be a moment of clarity after months of insanity. Just a few
16:58weeks ago, it seemed like Ukraine was being forced to prepare for a war with Belarus,
17:01as Lukashenko made his mobilization comments. We analyzed those comments and what they could mean
17:06at the time, so check out our video to learn more. And if you enjoyed this video, make sure that
17:11you are
17:11subscribed to The Military Show so you don't miss any of our commentary on the latest developments
17:16in the Ukraine war. And thank you, as always, for watching.
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