Not Just TANKS… Russia Is Running Out of EVERYTHING by 2027

The Military Show

Russia’s military faces a growing crisis that goes far beyond tank losses. Its fleet of Tu-22 bombers is shrinking fast, with aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes, crashes, and maintenance failures—and many can never be replaced. As sanctions, aging Soviet-era equipment, and production failures cripple Russia’s aerospace industry, Putin’s long-term war plans are under threat. In this video, we examine the collapse of Russia’s bomber force and what it means for the war in Ukraine.  00:00 - Russia's Bomber Crisis 00:41 - The Decimation of the Tu-22 03:14 - Inside Tupolev's Production Failures 08:15 - The Soviet Cannibalization Trap 11:50 - Airframe Strain & the Nuclear Triad 14:15 - How Sanctions Choke Russian Aviation  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow  SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/xj1wnpKr

Transcript

00:00For so much of the Ukraine war, the focus has been placed on Russia's tank losses and its

00:04reliance on Soviet-era metal that is being torn apart by Ukraine. But Russia's stockpile issues

00:10go so much deeper than that. Beyond the tanks, Russia is running out of something else that is

00:16vital to its war effort, something powerful, irreplaceable. The one thing that has allowed

00:22Russia to carry out its brutal aerial campaign against Ukraine is going the way of the dodo.

00:27Russia is running out of bombers and it can't replace those that are being destroyed.

00:32There's a deep crisis in Russia's aviation sector and it spells disaster for Putin's plans for 2027.

00:40And right now there is nothing that demonstrates Russia's problems better than what is happening

00:45with its Tu-22 bombers. On June 16, Euromiden Press revealed that Russia started its war with Ukraine

00:52with a stockpile of 41 Tu-22M3 bombers. Now, it may only have nine left, as the bombers have either

01:01been taken out by Ukraine or experienced malfunctions far behind the lines, often inside Russia itself.

01:08United24 media backs this report, noting a Tu-22M3 crash that occurred in the Irkutsk region of Russia

01:15in June is the third to have happened in as many years as 2024 and 2025 saw similar incidents,

01:23both at the same Belaya airbase that is in the region. Now, the outlet claims as much as 70%

01:29of Russia's entire Tu-22 fleet has been lost. That's a problem. For two reasons. First, there's what the

01:37Tu-22 is supposed to bring to the table and what the loss of so many of them means for

01:41Russia.

01:42The airframe was the first supersonic bomber to enter production in the Soviet Union,

01:47and some variants of the Tu-22 have been in service with the Soviet military since the 60s.

01:52We won't pretend it's the most impressive bomber in the world, it isn't, but its combination of

01:56supersonic speeds and its ability to launch several varieties of cruise missiles, along with glide

02:02bombs, make it an asset to a Russian military that is trying to weaken Ukraine using constant

02:07airstrikes. Every Tu-22 that goes down is an airframe that can't be used to pelt Ukraine with

02:13missiles and bombs, and that is an issue that Putin doesn't want to face. But the far bigger problem

02:19is this. Russia hasn't made any new Tu-22s since 1993. Russia has been losing Tu-22s by the bucket

02:27load, and absolutely none of them are being replaced. Ukraine's operations spiderweb destroyed 12 alone

02:33back in June 2025, striking against bombers that were located at the Belaya, Olenya, and Diaghilevo

02:40bases. Since the beginning of the war, at least 24 Tu-22s have been destroyed or damaged, and all

02:47that Russia has in place is a modernization program designed for the declining stockpiles of Tu-22s

02:53that it still has in its arsenal. There are no spare parts, even minor damage to one of these bombers

02:58can

02:59result in it being completely written off, as Russia doesn't have what it needs to make repairs.

03:03That means that every Tu-22 that goes down is a bomber that Russia will never be able to replace.

03:09And the worst of it is that this failure to replace the bombers it loses doesn't just affect one model,

03:14it's a systemic production failure problem that extends to the entire Russian aerospace industry,

03:20both military and commercial. Let's head back in time to January 2026.

03:25In that month, something interesting happened at the Tupelov aircraft design and manufacturing company

03:30that was responsible for building the Tu-22, along with several of Russia's other bombers.

03:36Chief Executive Alexander Bobrichev made the surprising decision to step down,

03:41or more likely was pushed out, and was replaced by a man named Yuri Ambrosimov,

03:45who previously served as Deputy Managing Director for Economics and Finance.

03:49The leadership change was particularly notable because it came soon after a previous wave of

03:54purges in 2024, and it means that the company that manufactures and repairs the Tu-22M3, Tu-160,

04:01and Tu-95MS is now under new management. Why should you care? If you know anything about Russia,

04:08changes at the top of businesses don't tend to happen unless there's something so catastrophic going

04:13on behind the scenes that it can't be hidden by bribes and backhanders. And that's precisely what's

04:18happening at Tupelov. Bobrichev left under a cloud of legal claims filed against his company by Russia's

04:23Ministry of Defense, practically all of which were filed as a result of Tupelov failing to fulfill

04:28contracts. Lawsuits were filed and the company paid out millions, but that did nothing to change the

04:34reality. Production targets were being missed across the board in both the military and civilian

04:39aviation arms of the business. Defense Express revealed some interesting numbers. It pointed out that

04:44Russia's Defense Ministry received almost $53.5 million in combined settlements from Tupelov.

04:51That number is interesting because it's roughly the same as the cost to modernize a Tu-95MS bomber,

04:56and it's about a quarter of the amount that Russia spends to build a Tu-160M. In other words,

05:01not a whole lot. And if that's all that Russia's Defense Ministry claimed, it reveals plenty about the

05:06state of Russian bomber manufacturing. The company that is supposed to be refurbishing Russia's aging

05:12fleet couldn't even push one Tu-95MS out of its doors. Looking beyond that, the company was also

05:18supposed to produce four Tu-160Ms for the ministry, all of which were to be built between 2022 and 23

05:24and delivered in 25. But only two ever reached the Russian military and both arrived in 2026,

05:32which is a year after the initial deadline. Late deliveries are one thing, but to be late and only

05:37fulfill half of a major order is a sign that something has been going very wrong at Russia's

05:42premier bomber manufacturer. And we can even throw a few Tu-22M3 issues back into the mix.

05:48Tupolev has been overseeing the modernization program for that aging Soviet bomber.

05:53When that program started, Tupolev claimed that it would modernize up to 30 bombers for the Russian

05:57military. How many has it managed? Two. One in 2018 and another in 2023. Of course,

06:0430 is a pretty ambitious target now that Russia is down to as few as nine Tu-22s.

06:09But to only deliver two modernized bombers in five years is a ridiculously slow turnaround time.

06:15At that rate, it would have taken 75 years to get the whole batch done.

06:19By that point, even a modernized Tu-22 would be so far behind modern military aircraft that the bomber

06:24will be pointless. The leadership change is supposed to fix all of these problems.

06:28But the reality is that these problems can't be solved. Tupolev wasn't missing deadlines and

06:33under-delivering because its people were lazy or the company was mismanaged so badly that it

06:38couldn't deliver on basic contracts. What this entire Tupolev saga shows us is that the company

06:43is simply incapable of fulfilling orders because it doesn't have what it needs to do so. This is the

06:48same problem that makes every Tu-22 that Russia loses irreplaceable. Russia simply can't build more.

06:55And this is a problem that isn't going to get any better. There are a couple of reasons why

06:59Russia's aerospace industry is in the state it's in. We've touched on the Soviet-era airframes and

07:05we'll be digging deeper into why that's such a problem in a moment. But there's also the cost

07:09factor to consider. Modernizing a single Tu-95MS costs Russia more than $45 million, Pravda reported

07:16in May 2025. A single Tu-160, which is the closest bomber Russia has to the formidable US-made B

07:23-52

07:23strata fortress costs around $500 million to build, which is about five times as much as the B-52.

07:29These are hefty price tags when Russia is dealing with a war that has already cost hundreds of

07:34billions of dollars. And when those bombers come with the caveat that they can't be replaced,

07:38and often can't even be repaired, if they're stuck or experience technical issues, then you naturally

07:44get a Russian defense ministry that is hesitant about spending on a bomber fleet that is in desperate

07:49need of an overhaul. But all of this just brings us back to the bigger problems that Russia faces with

07:54its bombers right now. Ancient airframes and an inability to get its hands on what it needs to

07:59build or repair. But before we dig deeper into both of those issues, this is a quick reminder that you

08:05are watching the military show. If you like what you see from our channel, then make sure that you hit

08:09subscribe today. So the Soviet airframe problem, it's an absolute killer for Russia's bomber fleet.

08:16We brought up tanks in the introduction to this video, and a lot has been said about how Russia

08:21not only relies on Soviet-era armor for its ground operation in Ukraine, but is quickly running out

08:26of its Soviet-era stockpiles. One of the biggest problems Russia faces on this front is that it's

08:32being forced to burn through multiple old tanks just to get one up and running again. Euromiden Press

08:37reported on this issue in April, noting that Russia was running out of T-72Bs that it could refurbish,

08:42which had led to it cannibalizing older T-72As just to get some metal on the battlefield.

08:47At the time, Russia had between 800 and 900 T-72As, though only around 500 could be possible

08:53candidates for refurbishment. The rest would have to be stripped for parts to be used in

08:57that refurbishment, and Russia would likely have been far short of what it needed to get all 500

09:02possible refurbs functioning. Now take that problem and transplant it into a bomber fleet for which there

09:07are only a few dozen airframes available, rather than hundreds. Cannibalization still has to happen,

09:13but Russia runs out of the parts it needs much faster, and as with its tanks, it doesn't have

09:18the facilities needed to build more. These are, by and large, Soviet-era bombers, and Russia has long

09:24shut down many of the plants that made the parts used to build these airframes decades ago.

09:29National Security Journal also highlights this issue, noting that Russia had a bomber fleet of about 120

09:36across its stockpiles of Tu-22s, 95s, and 160s when Putin launched his Ukraine invasion.

09:42Even back then, about a third of the fleet was out of commission for repairs or modernization.

09:46Still, it was believed to be a large enough bomber fleet to handle Ukraine. It wasn't,

09:51and that's the problem, as the only one of these three bombers that is still in production is the Tu

09:56-160,

09:57and as we saw from Tupolev's problems, those airframes aren't being built anywhere near fast enough

10:02to make up for the bomber losses that Russia is experiencing. Since production resumed on the

10:06Tu-160 in 2019, only six have been delivered to the Russian armed forces. Russia lost twice that

10:12many bombers to Operation Spiderweb alone, and it's lost many more besides.

10:17As for the other two, production on the Soviet-era Tu-22s and 95s ended in 1993,

10:22when the Russian Federation decided it was better to keep the money being spent rather

10:26than invested in more bombers in the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse. In 2026,

10:31Russia desperately needs those factories back up and running, but that's impossible at this point.

10:36So much of the infrastructure used to make these older bombers was dismantled in the 90s,

10:41and much of the expertise needed to build them has either gone to the grave with those who held it

10:45or is inaccessible for other reasons. These are the reasons why every bomber loss Russia sustains

10:50is irreplaceable. And to really rub salt into the wound, this is a problem that we see across all

10:55of Russia's military. The Soviet-era systems on which Putin has relied so heavily in the war against

11:00Ukraine are one and done. Geopolitical Monitor says that in the air, Su-25 close support aircraft

11:06are no longer produced, meaning that the airframe has the same problems as Russia's bomber fleet.

11:11The T-80 tank family also can't be replaced, which means every new T-80 we see on the battlefield

11:17is

11:17really just another refurb that Russia managed to create by stripping away parts from other T-80s.

11:23Russia's A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft is also under the same umbrella.

11:28TLDR, if it was made during the Soviet era, Russia no longer has the tools or know-how to replace

11:33it.

11:34This is what happens when a military fails to modernize at the level it needs while combining

11:38that failure with a refusal to invest in maintenance of the older systems on which it relies.

11:43Eventually, the stockpiles start to run low. Coming back to Russia's bombers,

11:48here's why so many of these airframes being irreplaceable matters.

11:51For much of the war, Russia hasn't been using its bombers as you would expect.

11:55It learned early on that flying aircraft over Ukrainian territory was a recipe for disaster.

12:00By May 2022, Ukraine had destroyed 199 of Russia's aircraft, UKR Inform reported at the time,

12:07and Putin's response to that was to pull fighter jets and bombers out of range of Ukraine's air

12:12defenses. The strategy since then has been simple. Send bombers and jets up into the air,

12:17have them launch cruise missiles and glide bombs, then bring them back down without having to enter

12:21Ukraine's territory. It's a strategy on which Russia has leaned for years and has been trying

12:26to ramp up in 2026. On June 1, France 24 reported that Russia had launched 211 missiles at Ukraine in

12:34May, which was among the highest monthly total since the beginning of the war. Euromiden Press reveals

12:40that Russia is launching 180 to 250 glide bombs at Ukraine every single day, which requires the

12:46flying of 200 sorties per day, which in turn places enormous amounts of stress on pilots and their airframes.

12:53Now consider this rate of aerial attack when stacked up against Russia's bomber problem.

12:58Russia's bombers are used to launch cruise missiles and glide bombs. Every single time one of those

13:03bombers goes down, be it to a Ukrainian attack at a base or simple maintenance issues caused by flying

13:08far too many sorties, that's an attacking threat that is permanently grounded. Slowly but surely,

13:13Russia is running out of its irreplaceable Tu-22s and Tu-95s, and it isn't building the Tu-160 at

13:20anywhere near the rate needed to keep up with the pressure. When the bombers run out, the attacks

13:25stop. There's also the nuclear issue to consider. When Ukraine took out so many of Russia's bombers

13:30during Operation Spiderweb, one of the biggest topics of conversation in the aftermath was the

13:34impact the strike had on Russia's nuclear threat. The Tu-22 is capable of carrying nuclear weapons,

13:40as are the Tu-95 and the Tu-160. If those airframes are either irreplaceable or being built at such

13:46a

13:46slow rate as to be almost irrelevant, you get an aerial nuclear threat that is rapidly diminishing.

13:51And as each Tu-22 goes down, so does its ability to launch nukes, never to be replaced. Even how

13:58much Russia loves to throw around its nuclear weight as an intimidation tactic, the real-time

14:02crumbling of a large part of its nuclear triad is a situation that actively weakens Russia on the

14:08global stage, not just in Ukraine. Russia's nuclear threat is losing muscle by the month, but the real

14:14problem for Putin is this. There is no road to recovery that can be followed while the Ukraine

14:18war continues. We've already covered the Soviet airframe problem and the litany of problems that

14:23come from Russia relying on older bombers that can't be repaired or replaced. But the wider issue is that

14:28Russian aircraft building is in the toilet all across the board. We see that in the missed deadlines

14:33and glacial production rate of the Tu-160. However, looking at Russia's commercial aviation sector

14:39reveals problems there too. In an August 2025 report, Reuters revealed that Russia was increasingly

14:45forced to rely on lengthy and expensive indirect import routes to source components needed to

14:50keep its fleet of 700 planes in the air, with its big problem being that most of those planes are

14:55made

14:55by Boeing and Airbus, neither of which are Russian companies. Sanctions are hitting Russia's aerospace

15:00industry hard. In January, the Moscow Times reported that one of Russia's solutions for the inevitable

15:06shortages this situation creates is going to be to send Russian Airlines mothballed Soviet-era aircraft

15:12in 2026 and 2027. That isn't a solution. It's a continuation of the problem that we're seeing in

15:18Russia's bomber fleet. Returning to military aircraft, not even Russia's modern airframes can escape the

15:24sanctions problems. In both the Su-34 and Su-35S, around 80% of the critical electrical components needed to

15:31make those jets usable are made in the West. Russia hasn't said how many Western parts are used to

15:36make the Tu-160, but we imagine there are at least some, given that Russia's modern fighter jets need

15:41them so badly. Sanctions are biting for these modern military airframes just as they are in the commercial

15:47sector, which forces a greater reliance on the Soviet-era bombers and airframes that Russia knows

15:51are irreplaceable. It's a catch-22 of epic proportions, and it could end up destroying

15:57Russia's air force. What it all comes down to is that Russia can't build planes anymore,

16:03whether that be its modern fighter jets or its Soviet-era bombers. The more that Russia relies

16:07on its aging airframes, the greater the chances of them being taken out of commission with no

16:12replacements, leading to fewer aerial assaults against Ukraine. But if Russia stops using its bombers,

16:17then you get the same result. It's win-win for Ukraine and no-win for Russia. And until the war

16:23ends and sanctions are lifted, there's no light at the end of the tunnel for Russia's aircraft

16:27manufacturing. Russia's bomber stock is collapsing. It has dozens left of a fleet that once numbered

16:33over a hundred. And for Putin, you can chalk up yet another failure to anticipate what Russia needs

16:38to be the military power that he claims it to be. This isn't the Cold War era anymore. But Russia

16:43is

16:43still fighting like it is, and its bombers are paying the price. Meanwhile, Ukraine is using a

16:48modern and asymmetric approach to hit Russia from the skies. While Russia tries to figure out a solution

16:53to its bomber problem, new and more powerful Ukrainian drones are wreaking havoc on Russian

16:58logistics in the occupied territories. In just one overwhelming attack, Ukraine destroyed 50 Russian

17:04vehicles on a key bridge that links to occupied Crimea. Find out more about that strike and what it

17:10means in terms of Ukraine's Crimean strategy in our video. And if you enjoyed this video, remember to

17:15subscribe to The Military Show for more reports covering what's really happening behind the scenes

17:20in Russia's military. And thank you for watching.

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