- 5 hours ago
For decades, infrastructure was built around relatively predictable patterns of industrial and economic growth. AI is changing that equation dramatically. The rapid expansion of data centers, compute-intensive systems, and digital services is creating a new wave of electricity demand at a scale few anticipated this quickly. At the center of this shift sits a growing question: can energy infrastructure evolve fast enough to support the AI economy? From grid modernization and power generation to investment cycles and deployment timelines, the challenge is becoming less about technological possibility than industrial readiness. In this conversation, Pablo Koziner explores how the rise of AI is reshaping the future of energy infrastructure and what it will take to power the next era of digital growth sustainably, reliably, and at scale.
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00:00Please welcome Pablo Koziner in conversation with Karen Cho from CNBC.
00:28Hello everyone, we're going to dive into a conversation that is seen by many on investment markets
00:35as the conversation to be having in 2026 as we talk about AI adoption, tech sovereignty.
00:42So first up, Pablo, you're at the forefront of energy infrastructure.
00:47Where are we as we talk about the enormous AI demands?
00:51Well, Karen, it's great to be here with you and thank you all for being here as well.
00:55An incredibly exciting conference when we're looking at the intersection of technology development and energy.
01:03And so if we talk about what's driving the surge that we're experiencing now,
01:07clearly AI learning, AI adoption, this is a powerful technology and ultimately it has to be powered.
01:17And there is so much investment, so much development that it's an exciting time and energy.
01:22I know we're going to get into the detail of this.
01:24Exactly. That's why I'm here.
01:25I'm actually, I signed up for this panel because I wanted to learn and I want the detail.
01:29So electric power as the backbone of the digital economy, 20 to 50, 20% in terms of usage, global
01:37usage,
01:37we're going to get to 50 by 2050.
01:41Talk us through that.
01:42So the projections are, you're correct, 20 to 23% of current energy consumption comes from electrical energy.
01:51So think about the grid essentially, which means that coal, oil burning, heavy fuels make up the rest.
01:59And the projection because of the importance of the grid and the electrification of things like vehicles and data centers
02:06and industry and electric heating
02:08is driving the need for electricity to really be 50% growth on that 23% by 2050.
02:16Now the projections could be that could make up 30% of the share to even closer to 50, as
02:20you just said.
02:21Massive investment.
02:23Think about this.
02:24$400 billion a year spent last year with the trend that we're seeing moves to $600 billion to $750 billion.
02:35So at the top end, €650 billion a year by 2030.
02:40Massive increase of investment.
02:43If you've ever listened to any of our conversations on CNBC about energy, we talk about supply and demand.
02:49And obviously, there's been a big issue with supply through the straight-of-form moves when we talk about energy.
02:54But the demand side has been relevant too, as we've spoken about, whether we're in an economic boom, an economic
02:59downturn.
03:00So as we try and get to from 20% to 23% to 50%, what is the crunch that
03:06we're facing on the supply side?
03:08Well, it takes all things to ultimately construct this capability.
03:12And we have experience.
03:13Today, 25% of the world's energy, we participate, electrical energy.
03:19We participate through the products and services that we serve.
03:22We know how to do energy at scale.
03:25The issue is the surge that we're experiencing.
03:29So if you look at the last 10, 20 years in the developed countries, energy growth has been very slight.
03:37And energy has really been an afterthought in many of the discussions that were being had in terms of infrastructure.
03:44But today, with the needs that we're seeing, energy is right at the forefront.
03:48And that realization has created a real rush to consume what's available to build out the capability that we're seeing
03:57because of this AI surge.
03:59And so while the supply chains are being tested, so is constructability.
04:05So are policy laws, permitting timelines.
04:09And so in order to meet the moment, you have to look at the entire ecosystem.
04:16And it has to move from transactional and tactical to really strategic and very strong partnerships to get this done
04:24in a collaborative way.
04:26And that's what we're focused on.
04:27Do you have a view on the pricing that we're going to see in electricity in coming years because of
04:32this surge in demand?
04:33So in the near term, we see pricing going up because of scarcity.
04:37The question becomes, as surges become stable growth, and we're all focused on driving more efficiency, and that comes from
04:46technology like software.
04:48Or at GE Vernova, we're highly committed to lean principles in the way we work.
04:53So we chase waste.
04:55We focus on how we improve safety quality, delivery cost, a continuous learning environment.
05:00And then you have certainly additions in capacity that all OEMs have done at some level.
05:07And what you'll see is a smoothing, ultimately, of price.
05:12Now, the other thing that's happening is that those that are driving the greatest need for this power are also
05:20now more willing to pay for the power that they need.
05:23So there's this offset of the cost of building out with some more progressive thinking by hyperscalers, for example, in
05:30terms of how they pay for the power that they're demanding.
05:36The geopolitics have become more and more difficult.
05:38In recent years, we've been talking about energy security through the Russia-Ukraine lens.
05:44Yeah.
05:44And in recent times, we're talking about the Iran conflict.
05:47We hope we're not going to be talking about it for much longer.
05:49But the reality is conditions have changed around energy security.
05:53What does that mean in terms of how countries are going to be thinking about building out their own resilience?
05:58I think the examples you just mentioned highlight the importance of, first of all, energy.
06:04So it's great that energy is front and center where it should be because we're having intelligent discussions about sovereignty,
06:13national security, how important energy is to overall progress.
06:16Now, when global conditions are stressed, whether it be through conflict or policy, it highlights the importance of sovereign nations
06:26to look at their energy capacity and think about what are the things that they're going to do to provide
06:31more security.
06:32And so this is where technologies like small modular reactors and nuclear become highly attractive or renewables like solar energy
06:41and wind and batteries, where these make the most sense.
06:45Because ultimately, with the growth that we're seeing in the world population, the need to electrify more progress generally, it's
06:53you can't get progress without energy.
06:56The AI race is becoming an energy race.
06:59I want to pick up on that because the conversations that I've had have been along the lines of, look,
07:04the American economy has access to electricity at this price.
07:09China has electricity at this price, but Europe has electricity priced here.
07:14How do we change that?
07:15Because it feels like if we want to conquer AI in Europe, we need cheap electricity.
07:20Yeah, and it's a great, you know, you use the word conquer.
07:23We'll see how that can be done.
07:25I mean, it's just a technology that is exponentially more impactful.
07:30And it's the right question about what type of infrastructure is going to be available to support it in terms
07:37of the available capacity and also the cost.
07:40And so first and foremost, you think we tend to focus a lot on generation of electricity, but it's really
07:48the grid.
07:49The grid, the electrical infrastructure is paramount to enable more artificial intelligence.
07:55And it's important because the movement of electrons can be done as efficiently or as poorly as the stability of
08:03the available grid.
08:05And so the grids, as many people know, depend on a certain amount of firm capacity that's always available.
08:11But a strong grid can enable more renewables, which then opens up more capacity.
08:17And a strong grid can also balance the uses of these technologies that enable more energy overall.
08:23So we're very focused at GE Vernova through our investments.
08:27We're spending $11 billion in capital and research and development from here to 2028.
08:34Big investments in our electrification business because it is the ultimate enabler of more energy.
08:40I feel like we've been talking about this for years now.
08:43Even here at Vivotech, there was a whole big push around European policy, around electrification, green economies.
08:50And, you know, every other exhibit here a few years back was all about green energy and electrification.
08:55Obviously, that fell a little bit to the wayside as we spoke about other things, namely AI and now defense
09:01tech as well.
09:02Where are we when it comes to improving grids in Europe?
09:05Well, we have a lot of work to do, but the great news is the grid is sexy now.
09:09Now, we're talking about the grid.
09:12Finally.
09:12Yes.
09:13And a lot of people that are here that have a passion for innovation and technology.
09:17I was talking to Philippe Perron.
09:19He's the CEO of our grid and electrification business, headquartered here in Paris.
09:23Leads a large organization for us.
09:27And he talks about the grid being deep tech.
09:31And the reason for that is as you add more technology sources to the grid, the complexity of how to
09:38manage that increases exponentially.
09:41And so it's ripe for innovation.
09:43It's ripe for efficiency.
09:44It's ripe for tools like our software business to support more efficient flows and identify bottlenecks.
09:51And to use AI, the technology that we're supporting in its growth, will come back and help us drive more
09:58efficiency and energy.
09:59So it's a great time to be in energy and really an important time to invest more in the grid.
10:05The very strong point that was made to me recently by a VC was, look, the only thing in deep
10:09tech that is getting funded right now is dual use, civilian and defense, nothing else.
10:15That's the case.
10:16Is that what you're seeing as well?
10:18And does policy in Brussels need to change to allow your industry to flourish?
10:23Yeah, I think policy overall needs to look at, take a long-term view, a strategic view in terms of
10:31understanding that energy, both in cost and its capacity, and where the investments need to flow, are ultimately going to
10:39determine things like energy sovereignty and prosperity.
10:42Our mission statement at GE Renova is to help the world electrify so that it can thrive and decarbonize.
10:50And there's no better investment than the grid to do all those things, because as we add generation capacity to
10:57the grid, by virtue of doing that, you're decarbonizing at the same time.
11:01So it addresses multiple policy, important policy positions on sustainability, on costs, on adding capacity.
11:10And so as legislators and politicians look at this, they have to prioritize, ultimately, investment therapies.
11:17It's going to give them a great return.
11:19But they're not doing that yet, are they?
11:20It depends.
11:21It depends.
11:22I'm seeing a lot of progress all over the world in terms of people coming together and having these important
11:27discussions.
11:28Some places are moving slower than others.
11:31But I think what's very clear is that energy prosperity and sovereignty is becoming such an important issue that it's
11:42forcing these very important decisions to be discussed and ultimately made.
11:47One of the questions for policymakers today and everyone I'm speaking to and the question is being asked, how far
11:54do they want to take tech sovereignty?
11:56When it comes to your industry, how far do you think this conversation goes?
12:02Will it only be certain players?
12:04Will it be from certain countries that are seen as allies?
12:07Is that how the build-out will happen?
12:09If you're, say, a Chinese player or you're seen from somewhere else, you're not going to be allowed to build
12:14critical infrastructure that is going to be around sustainable energy for grids?
12:19It's a dynamic environment.
12:21It remains to be seen how this ultimately plays out.
12:25But in the early days of this, there is certainly a lot of attention by governments in terms of what
12:31they want to see, in terms of where this technology is developed, and ultimately where it's housed.
12:37And this is where you get, I just had a conversation, this is why I love VivaTech, because you have
12:42these great conversations with industry peers, and they are in the data center building business.
12:48And they're seeing an enormous opportunity and work on building sovereign, disconnected data centers.
12:57And that's because nation states and also companies want to protect their data and disconnect it from global cloud, because
13:06they're realizing the sensitivity of this information and the capabilities that are boosted by technology.
13:12This is going to evolve significantly in terms of where these companies today, the big hyperscalers, can do some of
13:20this AI development.
13:22But of course, as they are not focusing in certain areas, we're going to see new entrants in the market.
13:28So as you talk about the hyperscalers, something that was happening before the Iran conflict was that the hyperscalers were
13:34going to the Middle East.
13:35They saw the cheap energy there, in their mind, they had a way to try and connect up that cheap
13:41energy to the data centers they were creating to try and lower the cost of doing business.
13:45We know, based on some of the news reports, that did not work out well for some of the hyperscalers.
13:50In fact, they're under attack by drones coming towards that critical infrastructure.
13:55How do we process that story?
13:57Do you think hyperscalers, do you think companies are now going to be reluctant to put those sort of facilities
14:03next to the cheap energy because of the risk that just got exposed?
14:07Or am I just talking about this in a window that is now going to be over with an MOU
14:11and then maybe a settlement on nuclear?
14:13You know, is that yesterday's story?
14:16It'll be interesting to see.
14:18We certainly have to separate what's a short-term issue versus a longer-term play.
14:24So I am talking short-term because I don't know.
14:27That's why there is this question.
14:29Well, we're dealing with the short-term today.
14:31And so in the short-term, you see businesses react in a certain way because they're concerned about the safety
14:37of their people and the safety of their infrastructure.
14:40Now, as things normalize, you go back to the fundamentals of growth.
14:44And the Middle East and places like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, there is massive investment and a desire to
14:52grow, and we see continuing growth in those regions.
14:58Now, what's happening today could influence ultimately the way they think about infrastructure going forward.
15:04And that's the, you know, how much do you concentrate in one specific area versus a diversity of multiple data
15:12centers.
15:13Things like that will certainly become relevant.
15:16But the fundamentals, the trend that we see in the long term as things stabilize, that continues.
15:24I want to touch on some of the partnerships.
15:26And you alluded to this earlier about partnerships with hyperscalers to power AI.
15:30It was a conversation I had a few years back in Davos.
15:33I was talking to a CEO of a massive brewery, a beer alcohol company, and they were creating their own
15:40energy and their own infrastructure next to their facilities.
15:44But it felt as though that story sort of fell by the wayside.
15:47But now we have this massive challenge with data centers and hyperscalers are reviving the storyline again.
15:53So what are you doing in terms of these partnerships?
15:55This is why this time is so exciting.
15:57And if you take away anything, think about the moment we're living in is a shift from the transactional past
16:04of energy to the more strategic.
16:06And so here we have a group of consumers of energy that are looking at the overall landscape and thinking
16:14about the future and making decisions that they need to behave more like infrastructure companies.
16:18And the discussions that we're having now with them are not only about the stuff that they need to generate
16:25power, but ultimately the system that drives the most efficiency, that helps them address the type of loads, the type
16:35of energy consumption that is unique to their uses.
16:38So, for example, artificial intelligence has a way of increasing and decreasing its energy requirement in milliseconds.
16:47It's very unique and different from traditional industrial loads.
16:50So we're having very important discussions about how we design systems that take energy that is produced from power generation
16:59equipment all the way to the rack to maximize efficiency and also mitigate these movements and load.
17:06These are not discussions that typically energy companies would have had with an end user.
17:10We would typically sell to a developer or a utility that was very sophisticated in terms of what they bought.
17:17And they said, you know, this is the machine I want and here are the transformers that I need.
17:22But the discussions have really shifted to problem solving.
17:26And one of the things that I'm so lucky in with the company that I work with is we have
17:33over 200 scientists, PhDs.
17:36And that's just in one location in our center in New York, but then we have more in India and
17:41here in Europe, that they wake up every day excited to solve these problems.
17:45They're not trying to sell anything.
17:47They're trying to invent things that ultimately make energy more efficient and help solve the challenges that these hyperscalers and
17:54others are having.
17:55And so the quality of those discussions and the solutions that are being driven are ultimately going to drive great
18:01results and great efficiency.
18:02Let me ask you a slightly tricky question.
18:05You said you weren't going to ask anything.
18:08There is a view that the hyperscalers could be wrong.
18:11This build out of massive compute and the large language models that we're relying on may not be the way
18:16that we build AI.
18:17In fact, it could be world models.
18:18It could be small models.
18:19You're seeing very good outcomes from some of these other models.
18:23Also, will language be the way some of these models are trained in future?
18:27Will it be the world around us?
18:28I mean, there's so much new tech coming into the marketplace.
18:31Contact lenses.
18:32There's a company here showing contact lenses.
18:34If you're training models based on real-world knowledge, not using language, that can change the narrative of the sort
18:41of energy required to power AI.
18:44It could, and we hope it does.
18:46And the reason for that is artificial intelligence, the way we look at it, even the way we use it,
18:52as we were talking before, within our company, we're in the very early days of this technology.
18:57The adoption and the usage only increases, and we need more efficiency.
19:02We need innovation because the current state, the hunger for power is exponential.
19:09And just think about, I'll take a North American example, 2% to 3%, I'll take 2025, last year, of
19:18our electrical system in the United States was consumed by data centers.
19:22By the end of this decade, it will be over 10%.
19:25The growth associated with what they need in the short term is something we haven't seen, and it's created a
19:33super cycle combined with other energy needs that we haven't seen since the late 1940s.
19:39Wait, wait, wait.
19:39So you think we're on the cusp of a super cycle in energy?
19:42Absolutely.
19:43Despite the oil price coming off in the last couple of days because of seemingly normalization, at least, do you
19:49think we're now about to go higher in terms of the energy price globally because of a super cycle?
19:56What I'm saying is that the need for electrical energy is in the early days of a super cycle because
20:03the world is moving off non-electrical energy,
20:07so coal, gas, and heavy fuel oils, burning those to generate power, to more investment in the electrical grid.
20:16That investment continues.
20:17That's what I mean by super cycle.
20:20More renewables, more batteries, more nuclear, more solar, and more investment in the movement.
20:27So we think about the grid as streets and highways that have to be built in order to move electrons
20:31to the places that are requiring them.
20:35All of that is now being boosted by AI, but the fundamentals of that come down to the need to
20:43electrify industry, vehicles, heating, as we were saying before.
20:49And that is what we're seeing is that demand continues.
20:56One of the amazing things is we thought as we were looking at the demand that we've been seeing in
21:02the last two years,
21:04which now takes us 100 gigawatts of backlog in our contracted power for our gas business.
21:12We're doing more business in the first quarter of this year in our electrification business with data centers than we
21:17did all year last year.
21:20Even despite that, we're seeing massive opportunity in areas outside of the United States that we didn't anticipate.
21:27In Vietnam, in Mexico, in Brazil, all over the world, that power need continues to grow.
21:35And we're seeing it now in Europe as we're seeing more infrastructure needed to be built.
21:38It's a great example of how free cash flows can just change overnight where companies are valued at X and
21:43then suddenly they're worth X and Y because of a new model that they've found, a new avenue, new revenue
21:48source.
21:49I want to get to the point that a lot of players in your industry want to make, and they
21:53stress it every single time.
21:54There's no single technology solution.
21:57And here in France, obviously, there is a small nuclear reactor that is being used across various different parts of
22:03the country.
22:04How useful is technology like that?
22:06What do you need to see in the mix?
22:07I think it comes down to the fundamentals of energy.
22:10What do we, when we wake up, what are we trying to solve?
22:14We're trying to solve for power at scale on a path to decarbonize the energy system that is sold at
22:21a value that makes sense for the consumer.
22:24When you think about nuclear, it's a fantastic solution.
22:29Fully decarbonized, reliable power.
22:32The issue is, can it be done at scale at a cost that makes sense?
22:36We have a project underway in construction in Canada.
22:41The world's, from a Western perspective, world's first small modular reactor, 300 megawatts.
22:48It can power 300,000 homes and occupies the size of a football field, soccer football, proper football.
22:56We, that's just the beginning.
22:58We signed a deal with the, taking advantage of the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, $40 billion earmarked to our nuclear
23:07program that is effectuated, and we think it will be, allows us to start to build 10 more SMRs on
23:15top of the four that will be built in Canada.
23:17Certainly the first one, and we're seeing more opportunity after that.
23:21The amount of investment in things that matter and that will be enabled, that will help the energy system scale
23:29is impressive.
23:30We've got two minutes left, and I've just realized I've not asked you the question.
23:33Why do we need all of this energy on Earth when we're going to have data centers in orbit powered
23:38by solar?
23:39This is the Elon Musk dream that he has sold to investors recently, and that has taken SpaceX to become,
23:46what, the fourth or fifth most valuable company in the world, depending on how it's trading on any given day.
23:51Well, Elon is a very smart person, and we'll see how that develops, but even if you put data centers
23:58in space, you're still going to need the technology and the power to enable the rockets to take equipment to
24:04space and then go service them and bring people back, and we'll still need a lot of data center capacity
24:10here on Earth.
24:11But it's a great example of the way that people are innovating today, because they realize that energy is really
24:18the backbone of progress.
24:20And so whether it's infrastructure here on Earth or on the sea or in space, the progress is real, and
24:30it can be a more exciting time to be in energy.
24:33And I encourage everybody here that's thinking about what the next career is going to be, energy is the place
24:39to be.
24:39Well, on that note, what would you say to the startups here, some of the young developers that want to
24:45be in your space?
24:46Is there an opportunity, and what is that opportunity?
24:49We know that great progress is often enabled by startups.
24:54These are the startups take the risk.
24:56They innovate in ways that larger companies are slower sometimes to execute, and I have the privilege of leading our
25:03ventures team.
25:04And we are very close to communities through various organizations and directly that we stay very close to startups.
25:12We invest in companies that we have some conviction in the things that they're working on, and we know that
25:19progress will be enabled significantly from ideas that come from startups.
25:25And I would encourage them to keep going, because the world needs you.
25:28Well, that door is open, isn't it?
25:30Pablo, thank you so much for joining us here at Viva Tech.
25:33All right, thank you.
25:37Thank you, Karen.
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