00:00Tel Aviv. Now, Elijah Magner is a veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst. He
00:05joins us now. Elijah, thanks so much for your time. We've heard from our two correspondents
00:09now that there are so many details missing, and yet there's a sense that this time we might
00:16actually get a peace deal. What's your sense? Thank you for having me. First, it is far from
00:22being a peace deal. It is a framework agreement between the United States and Iran, excluding
00:30Israel, which allow the Israelis to say, well, I'm not in, therefore I need to look after my
00:38own national security, and I will judge upon what's going to happen next. However, we know
00:44from today onward until Friday, when the signature is due in Geneva, in theory, these
00:52Israelis should not open fire in Lebanon against any objective or any target or issue evacuation
00:59orders or anything of this kind that was going on in the last 100 days. So we know that this
01:06is holding for now, but Israel said it's not going to withdraw. And the framework is saying
01:12any point that is not fully agreed and fulfilled, everything will collapse. And because this is
01:19point one, which is the end of the war in Lebanon and the withdrawal of all Israeli forces, then
01:27that is going to be a serious challenge for Donald Trump. Yes, exactly. And Lebanon has been a sticking
01:33point for previous rounds and attempts at peace. What could make the difference this time? Would
01:40it be political pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu by Donald Trump? I don't think so, because Donald Trump is
01:48dealing with the future of one person. Benjamin Netanyahu has the election of the Prime
01:55Ministership and Ignatius for that, of course. And if he fails these elections, he is going to face three
02:02corruption charges and will go to jail unless he confesses his guilt. And then there is a possibility
02:10of the Israeli president to pardon him. But that would be the end of his career. This is not something
02:16that
02:16Benjamin Netanyahu is looking ahead to retire. Therefore, he's going to fight. And to fight, he needs to regain,
02:25uh, the, uh, war in one way or another, like he did a couple of days ago when he accused
02:31Hezbollah of
02:32sending two drones, that it was a very skeptical information. Therefore, it is going to be a
02:39challenging for Donald Trump because Trump wants the end of this war. And what is valid for Israel is not
02:45valid for America. For Donald Trump needs peace to run the midterm elections. And Benjamin Netanyahu needs war
02:53for his election. And that is just one of the tricky issues to navigate. We know that in Doha, the
03:00Pakistan negotiators are going to be moving back and forth between both parties before that hopeful
03:05Friday signing. Enriched uranium sanctions, those issues also have to be addressed. Do you think they
03:12can get it right this time? Well, you said it all. This is a very excellent point. Everybody is looking
03:19forward to. In fact, this agreement has so many traps, the frozen asset, the nuclear enrichment,
03:27uranium, the centrifuge was going to happen to the 441 kilogram of 60%. And when these are going to be
03:36diluted, but there is one big difference here. And the JCPOA in 2015, Iran needed to prove its goodwill
03:44and took all the measures before the agreement. Now it is the other way around. The Americans are
03:51taking all the steps before the Iranians. And once these are confirmed by the Iranians achieved,
03:58then the Iranians are moving on their side, which is going to put us in a very serious problem. If
04:04Donald Trump is going to say, I am not giving back Iran is frozen asset. I am not lifting all
04:10sanction.
04:10And I am allowing the Iranians to sell their oil and make a lot of money. And then the other
04:16300
04:16billions that Iran claimed for the reparation of the war that the Gulf countries said they will pay
04:22part of it. So all that, there are so many traps ahead. This is why I said from start, this
04:28is a framework
04:29agreement, far from being a peace deal. Absolutely. Thank you so much for speaking to us, Elijah Magner,
04:35a veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst.
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