00:00The much-talked-about Iran-US ceasefire, it is alive but very shaky. As of now, this looks less
00:07like a solid piece of deal and more like a temporary, conditional pause. The United States,
00:14Iran and Israel have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, but the underlining dispute that
00:18triggered the conflict are not resolved, especially over Iran's nuclear program,
00:23missile capabilities, sanctions, and the more important, control of the Strait of Hoboes.
00:31Reports say the two sides are still far apart on the terms of any permanent settlement.
00:37The biggest sign of fragility is disagreement over what the ceasefire actually covers.
00:43Pakistan, which helped mediate, initially said Lebanon was included, but Israel and the US said
00:50Lebanon was not covered, and Israeli strikes on Lebanon continued with heavy casualties.
00:56Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire. That has been relayed to all parties involved in the ceasefire.
01:01As you know, Prime Minister Netanyahu put out a statement last night in support of the ceasefire,
01:06in support of the United States' efforts, and he's also assured the President
01:10they'll continue to be a helpful partner throughout the course of the next two weeks.
01:13Iran is treating those strikes as a serious breach, and its officials have said that under such
01:20conditions, talks on a permanent peace deal become unreasonable, and hence the Strait of Hoboes is
01:27closed. Trump's latest message also suggests Washington sees this as a coercive holding pattern,
01:35not a settled peace. He said US military forces will remain deployed in and around Iran until
01:42the quote real agreement is fully complied with and tied that to two core demands,
01:49no nuclear weapons, and an open, safe Strait of Hoboes. That means the US is signaling deterrence
01:57first, diplomacy second. Still, diplomacy has not collapsed. An Iranian delegation is arriving in
02:04Islamabad for talks, which means both sides are still keeping a negotiating channel open.
02:09That is the main reason the ceasefire has not fully broken down yet. Markets are reading it the same
02:18way. At first, oil fell sharply on the ceasefire news, but then prices rose back towards the upper 90s
02:25USD per barrel as traders questioned whether the truce would hold and whether Hormuz would truly reopen
02:33normally. That rebound is a sign of low confidence in the ceasefire's durability. So, the bottom line is
02:41there is a ceasefire on paper, but it is fragile, conditional, and already under strain. Right now,
02:49it looks more like a short tactical pause before hard bargaining than a stable peace.
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