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  • 3 months ago
RJ Choppy opened up some Diamond Calves and broke down the latest postseason odds for the Rangers. They discussed the contrast in expectations between Vegas and the analytical projections, how the team's lingering offensive inconsistency affects the fan base, and more.

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Transcript
00:00How can you not be romantic about making the playoffs in the middle of June?
00:04One, because you made me mad during the break.
00:06One.
00:08One.
00:09A couple of people are believing.
00:12Don't stop believing.
00:13A couple of people are believing in the Texas Baseball Rangers.
00:18You want Las Vegas, or you want the Geeks?
00:21Which one first?
00:23Let's go Vegas, since they screwed me over last night again.
00:26Ha ha! Las Vegas believes in the Texas Rangers of all the second-place teams in Major League Baseball.
00:35Vegas thinks the Rangers have the third-best chance of any of them to outright win the division.
00:41So only the Rays at plus 220 and the Cubs at plus 280 have better odds than the Rangers at
00:50plus 320 of all the second-place teams.
00:53So if you go eat division by division, the Mariners are minus whatever, and they're the Rangers at plus 320.
01:01And then the Astros and Angels down there.
01:03And then in the NL West, it's the Dodgers and the Padres and Rockies and Diamondbacks.
01:08Each one has got their own number assigned to it.
01:12Now, the question is...
01:13So they think the Rangers have a better chance of making the postseason than the Yankees?
01:17No, no.
01:18The Yankees are favored in the East.
01:19Okay.
01:20So the Rays are the second-place team.
01:22Rays are the second-place team.
01:23So the Rays have a better odds of winning the East than the Rangers do of winning the West.
01:29Second-place.
01:30Right.
01:31So this is just second-place teams.
01:32Now, the question is, is this more belief in the Rangers, or is it more uncertainty about the Mariners?
01:46I would think it's the uncertainty about the Mariners in the West.
01:49I would think.
01:51Unless you're going to sell me on some more crap, that this team is better than I think.
01:56Well, I mean, I can't really sell you on it.
01:58Okay.
01:58I don't have...
01:59You just have to feel the AC or the heat being turned up for yourself.
02:02Right.
02:02So you got to start sweating around that neck.
02:04A little neck sweat.
02:04You know, you get neck sweat at the new place, which I got last time I was there.
02:08It was warm.
02:09It was warm.
02:10Right?
02:10A little neck sweat.
02:10Just a little bit.
02:11Very uncomfortable in our suite.
02:12Yes, I agree.
02:13The suite was very uncomfortable.
02:14The suite was nice.
02:15You know, when you get outside the seats, you know, outside the AC.
02:19As Peyton would say, when he dropped that foul ball, he said, I let it fall to the pores.
02:27I'm so mad I missed that, him dropping the ball.
02:30He didn't really drop it.
02:31It was two sections over.
02:32I'm so mad I missed seeing him, like, get a read on it and try to, like, that would have
02:36been so perfect.
02:38So, because, like, the Rays are currently in first place.
02:41Or at least they were as of yesterday.
02:43And they're not the faves in the East.
02:44And the Yankees are without Aaron Judge until, like, August almost.
02:48So, Vegas is buying in.
02:51I would ask, should we, too?
02:53Um, but it's, there's nothing.
02:56I don't really have, I can't really sell you that hard on it.
03:00Because the offense is just so inconsistent.
03:03Some days, I mean, look, did yesterday feel like a six-run game?
03:08Ah, six runs with extras.
03:11With extras.
03:11Not when it took four.
03:12And a ghost runner.
03:12Not when it took four hours when you're thinking this is 10-8.
03:16Right.
03:16Yeah, I mean, obviously, yeah.
03:18Because, obviously, you go in extra innings.
03:19But it was, so it was a four-run.
03:20Which, that feels more like what it was.
03:23But I don't even think it felt, it felt more like, like, maybe like a three-run outburst.
03:27But, uh, it's just, there's a lot of inconsistence.
03:29Three-run outbursts.
03:31That's all.
03:31That's what it felt like.
03:32I mean, three runs around here has felt like an outburst at times.
03:35Yeah.
03:35Um, but, now we move over to the geeks.
03:39The nerds.
03:40They've got the Rangers in the post-season.
03:44Um, right now, the Rangers playoff odds.
03:50Bobby, I know you haven't seen this, right?
03:52I haven't seen it.
03:52He's not looking at anything baseball-related except 160.
03:55Oh, he's looking at baseball-related stuff, and it's just 1980.
03:58What percentage chance do the Rangers have of making the playoffs, according to, like, the, you know, the.
04:03The little ESPN thing?
04:04Yeah, that FPI, or whatever it is.
04:06Um, 51%.
04:1264.8.
04:14They have not watched them.
04:15This is why you can't play baseball on a calculator.
04:17They, like, they may make the playoffs.
04:18That is not a 64% chance with the way they've played.
04:21Night.
04:22That's night.
04:22It's not just the way you play.
04:24It's the circumstances around you.
04:26No, I know, but, like, there's nothing about them that says, like, man, they are just so underperforming relative to
04:31the other teams in their division that they're still behind.
04:33Like, it's, there's still a. . . .
04:34Yeah, but it's the circumstances around you.
04:37They are. . .
04:38But why is it better than Seattle, for instance?
04:40Is it better than. . .
04:41No, it's not.
04:42Seattle's an 89% chance of making the playoffs.
04:44It's not better than Seattle.
04:44Because they think Texas could still get in the wild card.
04:47But here's the thing, okay?
04:49So, Seattle is 89% chance.
04:53Then Cleveland is 86.
04:55The next American League team is the Rangers at 64.8.
04:59After that, that's ninth, by the way.
05:01After that, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th.
05:04You've got to go all the way down to 14th with Toronto.
05:07And Toronto, the gap between the Rangers at 64.8 and Toronto.
05:12Toronto, Toronto's 36.3% chance of making the playoffs.
05:16That is a massive gap.
05:18Look.
05:18Now, a week later, a week from now, this could be flipped on its head.
05:22I'm going to admit something.
05:24It's not the best thing to do on the home of the Rangers.
05:26It's not going to be good.
05:27I know what you're going to say, and I 100% agree with you.
05:29It's not going to be on Twitter in the fan text.
05:31Right, Aiden?
05:32It's not going to be good.
05:34Aiden's going to clip it.
05:35On Twitch especially.
05:37And it's hypocritical on top of it all.
05:42If the Cowboys were in this same exact situation, I'd be much more excited, optimistic, and positive.
05:49And I need to call into question my attitude and my, not disgust, but my temperament and my reaction to
05:59whenever you bring up these types of optimistic things.
06:02And my emotional rejection of it.
06:06Why?
06:06Why am I doing it?
06:07I know why.
06:08I thought you were going somewhere else.
06:09And why am I being hypocritical?
06:10Because if the Cowboys were in this, I'm like, all right, you're still there.
06:14Still got a chance.
06:14I'm excited about the possibilities.
06:16I'm rooting for these other teams to lose in the NFC East to move us up.
06:20I'm being hypocritical about it, and I'm being negative about it.
06:24I thought you were going somewhere else.
06:25It's like rewarding.
06:26You're being rewarded for mediocrity.
06:29Right.
06:30Well, if that's the case.
06:31Where did you think I was going?
06:32I thought you were going to say that you know that they're here.
06:35But you're bored watching this team.
06:38Well, I am bored.
06:39But all these things, being in it, this is a good thing.
06:45It's a good thing.
06:46But I'm not reacting.
06:47I don't have an internal reaction of good.
06:49Well, I think football.
06:51This is better for us.
06:52It's better for the station.
06:53It's better for the Metroplex.
06:54If you're in it, it'll be more exciting for trade deadline.
06:56You make the playoffs.
06:57That's better for everyone.
06:58It's easier to watch a frustrating team once a week than six times.
07:03They are, because the analogous, like if you want to take it like what time of the year
07:09it is, like it would be the Cowboys are currently three and four, and the Eagles are three and
07:15three, and we have 10 games or 11 games left to play.
07:19And where it's like, well, that's right there.
07:21Whereas, it's like, okay, over the next 10 games, we've got these 10 critical moments
07:25that we can evaluate and talk about, and there's so much riding on these.
07:28Whereas, if this was the case with 10 games left in the Rangers' season, you'd be more
07:32into it, probably.
07:33You'd be more like, oh my gosh, there's so much weight on this.
07:35Whereas, that just feels like, this is a marathon, though.
07:38There's 100 more games they have to play.
07:40So, it's also just a little bit like, it's exhausting almost to think about what could
07:44occur over, that's why baseball is just such a, it is a grind.
07:48Or, to your point, I feel like a lot of the mystery has been removed, whereas in the
07:55NFL, right, with 10 more games, one game a week, it's like, oh, what could happen?
08:00Whereas, you've already seen 65 games.
08:02I've seen 65 games, 66 games, and what I think is a lot of evidence.
08:05Yeah, Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs, that little three-game stretch.
08:09That's 30 games.
08:10People like, oh my gosh, look at this.
08:13It threw our world upside down.
08:14It's a different football team.
08:15Like, they did change.
08:16They've completely, they figured this out, and this, and so it, like, it can just.
08:20You can see change in the NFL much, much quicker.
08:22You see a baseball change, it's like, all right, it's 10 days.
08:24Oh, okay.
08:26It's the Colorado River, like, cutting the Grand Canyon.
08:29It's just, like, very slow.
08:30It takes a while.
08:31And, like, the change is not, you don't feel great about anything until you're several
08:35weeks into it.
08:36And that's the instant gratification that baseball doesn't have, that football does.
08:39It's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just,
08:39like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's
08:39just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like,
08:39it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just,
08:39like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's
08:39just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like, it's just, like
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