00:00Australia's populist One Nation Party has surged past the ruling Labour Party to lead a nationwide opinion poll for the
00:06first time,
00:06reflecting a broader rise of the right-wing populism seen in the UK and across Europe.
00:11The result underscores voter dissatisfaction with last month's budget and signals growing fractures within the conservative side of politics.
00:18According to a survey from Redbridge Group and Accent Research, One Nation's primary vote advanced four percentage points to 31
00:25% from a previous poll conducted in May.
00:27Joining us now is Kosta Maris, the Director of Strategy and Analytics at Redbridge.
00:32Kosta, really great to have you with us.
00:33I think we last spoke to you in the wake of the last federal election.
00:38At the time, there was a real sort of reflection that Australian voters were perhaps too sensible to veer too
00:44much to the right.
00:46And that was why the coalition had failed in its campaign strategy.
00:50So what's changed since then for the shift to be this apparent?
00:54And do you think that's going to hold?
00:57Yeah, we've seen a trend that's similar to the trends we see in the UK and the US and parts
01:04of Europe as well.
01:05And that is former conservative voters moving to a right-wing populist alternative, largely in regional areas,
01:12but overwhelmingly in areas where there has been significant economic decline.
01:16So the change from the last federal election is that obviously One Nation has grown exponentially and it's been largely
01:24at the expense of the traditional conservative party here in Australia.
01:29And now they are beginning to eat into the ruling government, the Labor Party and its constituencies as well.
01:39Do you think this is likely to hold going into the next election and really build up momentum?
01:44And is there a sense that Magda style politics, and we know that Pauline Hanson herself, you know, has spoken
01:50at CPAC at Mar-a-Lago and has been broadly supportive of the US president's policies.
01:56Do you think that is really going to take root in Australia?
02:00A version of it, yes.
02:01I think what we are witnessing here in Australia is a definite realignment and restructure of our democracy, and that
02:07is particularly on the right side of politics.
02:11As I touched on before, it's largely within constituencies that are experiencing significant economic personal decline.
02:17And unless the economic situation for these Australians changes, I don't think we're going to see much of a change
02:23in terms of the trajectory, and that is that One Nation will be the largest conservative political force in this
02:31country going forward.
02:33As you mentioned earlier, I think obviously part of this came from kind of the existential implosion of the coalition
02:40and the Liberal Party, right?
02:42Is there a chance for a regathering of that, or do you think perhaps that could come from a more
02:49centrist party we're hearing of perhaps some of the TILs coming together to form a new party?
02:55Yeah, that TIL alternative appeals to a different type of Australian, largely in our large urban environments.
03:02Very similar to the sort of the Democrats in the US in terms of the sort of constituency that they
03:08find a lot of traction with.
03:12Yeah, so I think the alternative for One Nation really, in terms of if we see a decline in their
03:20support, will be largely at the benefit of the Labor Party if it's able to actually pitch into some of
03:26those regional constituencies, which they are presently losing ground to as well.
03:33Where can Anthony Albanese as a leader make up that ground that's been lost?
03:38We've seen him caving and vowing to address migration issues, for example.
03:43Do you see other policy changes?
03:45Do you see any walkbacks when it comes to this, what seems to be a deeply unpopular budget?
03:51Yeah, the budget really affects a particular constituency that still is voting for the traditional Conservative Party, the Liberal Party
03:58here in Australia.
04:00Really what the Labor government and the Albanese government needs to do is focus on those outer suburban regional constituencies,
04:07which have a history with the Labor Party and who they are losing ground to, to One Nation at the
04:13moment.
04:13And again, it all boils down to the economy and how well these particular Australians are travelling.
04:21So if the Labor government is able to hold back this tide, they will need to actually do something which,
04:28of course, in my opinion, in the UK, the standard government is not doing.
04:32And that is addressing a sense that the country is heading in the wrong direction and there's no solution with
04:38regards to the economy.
04:41Global thematics at play there, whether you're talking about America over in Europe or here in Australia.
04:46Cos, always great to chat with you.
04:47Cos Simaras is the Director of Strategy and Analytics at Redbridge.
04:51We do have more on Australia Head every Tuesday at 10.40am if you're watching here in Sydney.
04:558.40am if you're catching us out of Hong Kong.
04:58Plus, you can tune into the Bloomberg Australia podcast, which delves into the biggest stories shaping the country's role in
05:04global business.
05:04You can find that on Apple, Spotify or Bloomberg.com.
05:08More ahead here on the Asia Trade.
05:09This is Bloomberg.
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