00:00Just give me your kind of first reaction to this ceasefire. Are you hopeful, optimistic? Are you
00:07cautious as to how this is going to play out? Well, very cautious, but also hopeful that we're
00:14not where we feared we could be, which was really falling into the abyss of uncontrolled escalation.
00:21Things were really looking pretty serious, pretty dire in terms of where the conflict could go.
00:28And so in that regard, of course, this is a welcome reprieve. But I think a lot is going to
00:34have to
00:34be learned in the 24 hours, because really both the U.S. and Iran are spinning this in a way
00:42and
00:42sort of in a way calling victory. And yet there are some significant differences. And the one that I
00:49would point out that is most significant is the Iranians saying they will allow free passage
00:54for the next two weeks through the Strait of Hormuz, but in coordination with Iran's armed
01:01forces. If the U.S. agrees to that, that is that is a huge concession to Iran.
01:10There's a lot of uncertainty. Some of it is also around what happens with the Iranian proxies as
01:15well. Right. There was a statement saying that Lebanon would be part of this. How easy is it going
01:20to be to negotiate the proxy activity into such a deal? And how aligned would Israel be in terms
01:28of the cessation cessation of hostilities? Well, the word coming out of the White House
01:32this evening is that the Israelis are absolutely respecting this this ceasefire. However, I've
01:39heard no mention of Lebanon. And so it could well be that a Lebanon is on its own trajectory.
01:45And it would frankly surprise me significantly if the Israelis stand down on their offensive
01:52in Lebanon. So my fear is that that will continue. I think what we may have avoided in the short
01:58term is the possibility of other proxies, namely the Houthis, getting involved. And there was
02:04concern that if the escalation continued on the path that it was on, you could see the Houthis
02:10jump in and work to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the other key choke point in the region
02:17there. And that would have had an even even more significant effect on energy market disruption.
02:26Mona, ahead of this conflict, the president encouraged the people of Iran to rise up against the regime,
02:33saying they'd have no better chance than this. Well, has there been any evidence of that happening?
02:37Or do you feel like the theocracy now is more embedded than ever?
02:42No sign of popular uprising, quite the contrary. I think we're seeing the Iranians undertake
02:47additional executions, continue to use coercion. And frankly, some of the rhetoric and the attacks on
02:55Iranian civilian infrastructure has had a galvanizing effect, where you're seeing almost a rallying
03:03around the flag in Iran against these attacks. In terms of leadership changes in Iran, you're absolutely
03:10right. I mean, we've gone from Ayatollah Khamenei to Ayatollah Khamenei, the son of the previous
03:17supreme leader. I think what's notable is that if anything, the assessments are that this regime in Iran,
03:24this rump regime is even more hard line than its predecessor and that actually it's the Iranian,
03:32the sorry, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that has even more power than was the case before
03:39February 28th. Now, you also noted that the UAE suffered more bombardment than Israel during this war.
03:47What's the future of Iran's relationship with its neighbors? Very bleak. Whatever bit of trust
03:55and detente that had gone on amongst the Gulf countries and Iran is all but shattered, certainly
04:03with the United Arab Emirates, which, as you rightly note, has really borne the brunt of Iranian
04:08retaliatory strikes. We've seen the Saudis, the Qataris, the Kuwaitis, the Bahrainis, all of them express
04:16their utter disgust, quite frankly, with Iran's tactics. The one standout is Oman, which has
04:25maintained more of a mediating position, interestingly enough, including with respect to the Strait of
04:31Hormuz, where there's been some discussion with Iran and the Omanis to look to see whether there's a
04:37way of jointly supervising the strait. What this current ceasefire means for those early arrangements,
04:44none of which had actually been agreed to, is an open question.
04:51It's interesting, at this point, just after the last round of attacks last year,
04:57the operations, we were talking about the sort of reluctance of the U.S. to enter full conflict,
05:03because they wanted to keep an open window for nuclear conversations. Depending on how these ceasefire
05:09talks to go, do you think those talks are still a possibility? And I do wonder the idea of even
05:15these conversations between the U.S. and Iran, which have had very, very few conversations and
05:20negotiations over the past few years. It's an open question. I mean, you know,
05:25the Iranians are claiming in some of the statements issued by the Supreme National Security Council of
05:31Iran regarding this ceasefire, that Iran will retain the right to enrichment, which, of course,
05:36would go against what the United States has been demanding, which is zero enrichment.
05:42And so, to be honest, the depth of distrust between the United States and Iran is significant. And it's
05:51hard to see how the two countries move forward and actually address these longstanding issues,
05:59which still remain outstanding. The Iranians are also demanding that sanctions be lifted.
06:06And they're even calling for reparations. So there's going to be, I think, a lot to unpack
06:13in the coming hours. And of course, the next two weeks, in a way, are in eternity with respect to
06:19how
06:19this conflict has proceeded.
06:24I do wonder about the sort of soft power projection of this, right? Because the way that this war has
06:31been
06:31engaged, certainly the way that the US president has been communicating, particularly over the last 48
06:36hours, has been pretty astonishing and, I think, disturbing from some people, right, in terms of
06:41the language and the threats that have been made. On the other hand, you have seen almost an acerbic take
06:46from the Iranian diplomatic side as well. Where does this leave to you the reputation of the US alliance
06:56within the region, particularly as we also consider the damage that's been suffered by the Gulf states?
07:03Well, look, I think the United States has taken a hit in terms of its soft power projection,
07:10certainly with respect to some of the statements that President Trump has made with respect for Iran
07:16and, you know, going after an entire civilization, etc. More importantly, I mean, there's polling that's
07:24been done by the Arab Barometer, a polling group that's run out of Princeton University that's showing
07:32that the US standing in the Middle East has really plummeted, certainly following the war in Gaza,
07:40and now I think as well with respect to this current conflict with Iran. And then there's, of course,
07:46where the Gulf publics are deeply, deeply concerned about where this war is headed. Of course, no love
07:56for Iran and a lot of anger toward Iran. But I think, you know, some are asking questions about what
08:03does the US security guarantee actually mean? And what is the future of this region? What will be the
08:10future role for Iran? What will how will the Gulf countries manage in the face of if there is the
08:17regime still standing in Iran and one that perhaps even retains control over the Strait of Hormuz?
08:24Yeah, Mona, to your point about the future, where do you place the odds of Iran getting a nuclear weapon
08:30down the track? Because pretty much every fear that the theocracy had came true over the past five weeks.
08:37Surely the motivation now is stronger than ever to acquire nuclear deterrent. There's no no question
08:44that there is certainly a logic to the idea that the regime, if left to its devices, if it retains
08:52control over those 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, one could see that they could indeed sprint
09:00to some sort of crude nuclear device as the only way to ensure deterrence.
09:06They perhaps look to North Korea as the example, the exemplar, perhaps the path that they should have opted
09:15for earlier, that if they had had a nuclear capability, they would not have been attacked multiple times
09:22by Israel and by the United States. And so, yes, I think that's going to bear very, very close watching
09:29in the coming months. All right. Mona, you could be a senior advisor of the Middle East program at CSIS.
09:37Thank you so much.
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