00:00A new report from the Australian government says AI is not yet causing a broad disruption to the local labour
00:07market.
00:07The first of its kind report tracks changes since the release of ChatGPT in 2022.
00:13Australia's rise as a hub for AI data centres has sharpened concerns that the technology could wipe out white-collar
00:20jobs and trigger large-scale layoffs.
00:23Let's bring in our next guest who has consulted with governments and the United Nations about the challenges posed by
00:28AI.
00:29Toby Walsh is Scientia Professor of AI at the University of New South Wales.
00:34Professor, great to see you.
00:35So talk to us first about the reality for Australia when it comes to the impact of AI on jobs,
00:43the market, job growth, the anxiety of job losses as well.
00:51Well, this is probably the greatest concern, certainly, the Australian public has today is the impact it's going to have
00:56on their jobs.
00:57They're regularly seeing headlines.
00:59Weistech, a local software unicorn, laying off 10% of its staff.
01:04Atlassian, another unicorn software company, laying off staff.
01:08People are naturally very concerned about the impact it's going to have on them, and therefore the government is tracking
01:14this.
01:14The good news is there's been modest impact so far.
01:18There's been a slight softening in the jobs that are most exposed to artificial intelligence.
01:24But it's taking longer for the technology to diffuse and to start taking jobs.
01:30That doesn't mean, of course, that we don't need to do anything because people need to reskill, retrain.
01:37Young people have to pick careers today for many years in the future.
01:41So it's not that we can't worry. It's just that we shouldn't be too worried.
01:46So how should, you know, people in the workforce and the government, businesses as well, prepare?
01:52Which sectors also do you see as the most vulnerable?
01:58Well, there's some obvious sectors.
02:00You know, if you're working in customer service, you're reading from a script.
02:03Well, a computer can read from a script very well.
02:06But there are also jobs that perhaps people didn't expect a couple of years ago that seem to be pretty
02:11exposed.
02:12A computer programmer.
02:13We used to be telling people, if you wanted to make yourself future-proof, go and learn coding.
02:18Well, it turns out that computers actually seem to be very good at programming.
02:23So it's not clear.
02:25I mean, this is the problem.
02:26There's huge amounts of uncertainty as to what are the long-term effects.
02:31Programming, maybe AI can do the programming.
02:33Does that mean we're going to do more programming and we still need the humans to oversee the computers doing
02:38the programming?
02:38Or are we going to end up with less humans doing the programming?
02:41No one really knows the answer to that question.
02:44That is troubling for individuals, but it's also troubling for governments trying to grow their economies.
02:52There is an upside, right, from the productivity push, I suppose, thanks to AI.
02:58This is something that Australia has been dealing with for decades, long before the AI boom.
03:04How do you see that actually helping?
03:10Well, Australia has been struggling to actually have decent productivity for many years now.
03:16AI is a technology which does offer significant savings.
03:18I mean, I've been working with a big multinational company on logistics, optimizing their supply chain.
03:24We can save their fuel costs by 15%.
03:27That's a significant savings to the company, significant savings to the environment.
03:32That's all CO2 that we're saving.
03:33So there's significant benefits to be had.
03:36The important question is, are those benefits going to be shared broadly?
03:39Are they going to be won by a few companies, a few individuals, a few tech giants in Silicon Valley?
03:45Are those going to be spread more broadly over the economy?
03:50Because to your point also, I think one of the issues behind the tepid productivity
03:55was how businesses were not seen as reinvesting back into, say, capital expenditure.
04:03Given how, when it comes to the AI boom, there is this, you know, K-shaped economy sort of developing,
04:09not just for Australia, but many economies around the world.
04:13I mean, what are the odds that businesses will actually reinvest?
04:20Yeah, that's an important question because we're seeing investment in R&D in Australia at record low levels.
04:27That's both the government's investment in R&D and industry's investment in R&D.
04:32That's not a recipe for success.
04:34That's a recipe for AI happening to us as opposed to us seizing the benefits from artificial intelligence.
04:40So you're seeing some other countries that make really significant investments.
04:44I mean, South Korea, for example, just announced a trillion-dollar investment plan in AI and chips to invest in
04:50their future.
04:51Of course, in China, we're seeing significant investments.
04:53The United States are seeing investments.
04:55So you do worry that other more middle-sized economies might be left behind if they don't also make those
05:03sorts of investments.
05:06So for the moment, it looks like for the AI industry, the private sector is taking the lead.
05:11What do you think can be done to perhaps spur more investments by the government in this?
05:16And I guess not just for the development of the sector, but also to share the profits of this AI
05:24boom, so to speak.
05:29Well, I think it's quite easy how you share the profits.
05:32We have this thing called taxation.
05:34And perhaps we need to apply some of that more forcibly to the tech giants who pay very low rates
05:40of tax compared to traditional players.
05:43In terms of seeing the opportunities, I think the biggest problem we have at the moment is the public's distrust,
05:49the public's concern about artificial intelligence, that AI is happening to them, that they have very little agency.
05:54We've seen the public's attitude in the Ipsos survey recently in the United States put AI to a favorability rating
06:01of minus 18%.
06:05That was less favorable than ICE.
06:08The Immigration Service is minus 12% and Trump at minus 8%.
06:11The only thing less popular than AI was Iran, who they're at war with.
06:15So we are facing a significant challenge where the public's attitude towards AI, for example, their attitude towards the AI
06:24data centers that are being built, turning very negative.
06:27And that's going to hold back countries looking to seize the benefits of artificial intelligence.
06:32Turning into a sort of social issue.
06:35Toby, it's great to chat.
06:36Thank you so much for taking the time.
06:37I'm Toby Walsh, professor of AI at the University of New South Wales.
06:40We have more on Australia here every Tuesday at 10.40 a.m.
06:44If you're watching in Sydney, 8.40 in Hong Kong.
06:47More ahead on the Asia trade.
06:49This is Bloomberg.
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