00:00Iran US के बीच मामला सुलच भी गया तो कच्छे तेल की कीमतें जल्ब नीचे आने वाली नहीं है
00:05और भारत की GDP ग्रोथ 6.5% से फिसल कर लगभग 6% तक आ सकती है
00:11यह सब कहे कर हम आपको दरा नहीं रहे हैं बनकि IMF की पूर चीफ एकॉनमिस्ट गीता गोपिनाथ ने यह
00:17बड़ी चेताब नहीं दी है
00:19भारत दुनिया की सबसे तेजी सबड़ती बड़ी अरत्व विवस्थाओं में शामल है
00:22और IMF ने चालू वितवर्ष के लिए यानि FY27 के लिए 6.5% के विकासदर का अनुमान जताया
00:29लेकिन अब इस अनुमान पर खत्रे के बादल मंडरात दिखाई दे रहे है
00:33IMF के पूर वरिष्ट अधिकारी गीता गोपिनाथ का कहना है कि अगर तेल की कीमतों में तेजी बनी रहती है
00:39तो भारत की GDP ग्रोथ लगभग 6% से मट सकती है
01:03कि अगर ये विल्व लेश्ट ये टानुमान चैनुमान रखता़ा जटा बेश्चा का पस्थे लगभग 6% से रहे हैं
01:24आप्धिका अनुमान अधिका के आपना है
01:30But I mean, we still are not seeing very big risks play out.
01:35I mean, we're not seeing oil at reaching $120, even $140 a barrel.
01:40So that's the good news.
01:41And if that were to happen, I think the consequences for the global economy would be much more severe.
01:46In fact, China has a big part of its need.
01:49Crude oil, or oil, is a big part of the import of crude oil.
01:52In such a way, when oil is in the antarashia bazaar, it's a direct effect of the country's economy.
02:05It's a big part of the economy.
02:28It's a big part of the economy.
02:28In this situation, we have to not only import oil and oil, but also import oil and oil and oil.
02:36The current account deficit will also be added to the current account.
02:39Although the oil is added to the oil, it's also a big part of the economy.
02:45The oil is saying that in the same way, RBI is managing the whole situation.
02:51It's the right way.
02:52And listen to RBI policy on the 5 June,
03:08and what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz has consequences.
03:12Therefore, you should expect the currency to depreciate so that you get the adjustment that you need for the economy.
03:19RBI has been doing some amount of intervention to address disorderly market conditions,
03:25and that is perfectly fine to do.
03:27I think what you should avoid against is doing an intervention that keeps the currency from simply not moving at
03:34all.
03:34And that, I think, would be counterproductive because it will also make foreign investors hold off
03:40and not bring money into the country because they think the rupee is going to weaken again in the future
03:44once the intervention stops.
03:46So I think that the way it's being handled right now is appropriate.
03:50Global interest rates are already very elevated, and we are sticking to RBI again.
03:56RBI is to announce their bimonthly policy tomorrow that the new rates are to be announced.
04:00So do you see that RBI will increase their rates tomorrow?
04:05RBI is obviously trading off at this point the consequences for inflation that come with the higher oil prices
04:12and with the currency depreciation, but against what's happening in terms of economic activity.
04:17I mean, I expect that in the near term the RBI will likely be on hold,
04:22but then eventually maybe in the future, depending upon developments and what's happening with inflation, they can respond.
04:27But again, it's going on a data-dependent approach is a useful thing to do.
04:35And on the one hand, while there is some inflationary pressure, at least we're not seeing that much in consumer
04:41price inflation,
04:42also because there's not been that much pass-through of the higher oil prices into fuel prices at the pump.
04:48There's been some increase, but not that much.
04:51On the other hand, you also do have the somewhat softening of economic activity.
04:55And so therefore, maybe waiting for more data to see what's happening with inflation,
05:01what's happening with economic activity before raising rates would probably, you know, is one approach to take.
05:06.
05:07only Gita Gopinath
05:08not, but experts and analysts
05:10say that the low-takes
05:12are consumers of the people
05:14who get into their lives
05:17and the people who get into their lives
05:18or spending power
05:18which is a small amount of demand
05:21and the demand is lower
05:21and the company's lack of
05:23no-one of the people who can
05:25do this. This is why
05:27the price of the people
05:28is in the world
05:30that the government
05:31is in the world
05:32that the government
05:33is also in the world
05:36is that the economic activity will be done and will be made of speed.
05:44But if there is a long time in a long time,
05:48then the growth and the drought will increase in both the moods.
05:53So the question is,
05:54is that if the GDP will be the 6.5% of the GDP?
05:58Or will the drought of the drought and the drought?
06:17Or will the drought of the drought and the drought of the drought?
06:18What do you think about the comment box?
06:19in the Zorba Taiga.
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