- 7 hours ago
Rising tensions in West Asia and surging oil prices have sparked fresh concerns about India’s growth outlook. But experts believe the bigger picture may still favour stability, urging investors to look beyond short-term disruptions.
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00:17good afternoon you're watching the business today's show i'm sakshi patra this is where i get you all
00:21the market closing action on the last street first up let's take a look at what's hot in the
00:26corporate and the financial world these streets soars on negotiation buzz markets rebound sharply
00:34censors jumps by 1300 points nifty surges by 400 points to near 23 000 mark as the reports are now
00:41indicating iran's new supreme leader most abac aminini has agreed to negotiate an agreement with
00:46the u.s boost global sentiment extending the market gains a day after a massive sell-off of over 13
00:53lakh crore rupees quick service restaurant stocks are in focus so are the food delivery names such
01:02as swiggy which is height the platform fee to 17.58 rupees from 14.99 rupees earlier including gst
01:11aligning with zomato's pricing last week zomato had raised the platform fee by 19 percent to 14.9
01:17rupees per order from 12 and a half rupees earlier signaling pricing pressure in the food delivery
01:22space white goods stocks and ac company stocks are in focus as a wet spell over north india has kept
01:32the temperatures cool till mid april and this is what even skymet is predicting with back-to-back western
01:38disturbances bringing in rain and cloud cover delaying pre-monsoon heat and also pushing the peak summer
01:43demand to second half of april flood of generic semaglutide in the markets post-patent expiry
01:54now has prompted drugs controller of india to intensify surveillance tightening regulatory oversight
02:00on glp1 supply chain and act against unauthorized sale and promotion of weight loss drugs
02:09after yesterday's sharp fall gold and silver prices have also rebounded from the
02:13intraday low levels in delhi the gold prices are now up 3 000 rupees to now trade at for 1
02:18.4
02:19lakh rupees per 10 grams silver prices are also up by 9 000 rupees trading at now 2.26 lakh
02:25rupees a kilo
02:33we'll straight away take the first breaking news on your screens viewers this is with respect to the
02:38crude oil prices especially the indian crude basket which has hit an all-time high the indian crude oil
02:44basket is now trading at 157.04 dollars a barrel this is remember the previous high board was 156.29
02:52dollars that was seen on thursday last and the indian basket is a mix of various fuels at this point
02:58in
02:58time remember this is just when the crude oil prices globally are now showing us some signs of a cool
03:05off the indian crude oil basket has jumped to an all-time high level of 157.04 dollars a barrel
03:14as
03:14well this is the all-time high of the indian basket remember escalating tensions are now uh leading to
03:20some logistical bottlenecks increased freight costs and also insurance costs that is further inching up
03:26the indian crude basket uh price as well this basket has already seen a hundred and twenty percent jump
03:33from about 71 dollars a barrel that was just seen as before the conflict before february 28th and this
03:40uh has been uh you know of course a record-breaking rally the prices have surged the previous record
03:46highs as well before uh this level that we had seen as well and therefore there seems to be more
03:52trouble brewing for indian uh companies which are oil importing ones as well meanwhile we have seen
03:59prime minister narendra modi warning of a long-lasting impact of the war in west asia addressing the rajas
04:05sabha earlier this afternoon he's also said that while the country's economic fundamentals have been
04:10strong there has to be a need to be ready uh to deal with the challenges posed by the war
04:16he's also
04:16stressed that india has enough capacity to source and to store crude oil let's listen into what he had to
04:22say
04:22and the charge of the戰 was also in the end we have got one of the challenges that the
04:32african national government has been working on the issue of the war he has been talking about the
04:45nation of the war he has been giving himself for the war he was made and he is
04:48thinking about the war he is the only thing that is what he has done in the future the war
04:48he has been
04:48working for his work so that he has been asking for its its impact as the war that we have
04:51committed to
04:51also in general these conflict of the war these moments we have been introduced to the war State of the
04:52war that
04:52मैं हमारे देश की बडि परिक्षा लेने वाला है और इस परिक्षा में सभगता के लिए राज्यों का
04:59सहयोग बहुत आवशक है जैसा कि हम देख रहें कि इस युद्ध को लेकर पल-पल में हालात
05:09change.
05:10So I will say that I will be ready for every
05:17change to prepare for this.
05:20This is the second challenge of the future.
05:27But I will be proud of the nation.
05:45Meanwhile, markets have definitely showed a rebound after yesterday's massive sell-off.
05:50The nifty is up by nearly 400 points, hovering around 20 to 900 odd levels in trade.
05:55For the largest part of the session today, we have remained higher.
05:59Across the board, there is a buying spree that's emerging, be it IT stocks, be it the banking stocks,
06:04or even the broader markets, mid and the small caps are showing some signs of traction.
06:08Let me now welcome our guest on board.
06:10We have Mr. Gaurang Shah, the Senior Vice President for Geojeet Investments, now joining in on the program.
06:14Welcome to you, Gaurang. Good to have you with us.
06:17A lot of our viewers are already finding it very difficult to read into these mixed signals that we are
06:23getting into the markets.
06:24So, yesterday we had Donald Trump saying that, yes, he's pausing the military action for five days.
06:29Iran came in and said that there is nothing of this sort, no discussions with us, and we are going
06:34to be going on.
06:35The markets have some cautious optimism or some relief rally.
06:39Maybe they are penciling in the end of the war, coming in soon, if not immediately.
06:43How would you advise an average retail investor to read into these mixed signals,
06:47even though we've just heard the Prime Minister saying that he does expect, even if the war ends,
06:52there could be the repercussions that could be felt for a long time.
06:56Thank you, Sakshi, for having me on the show.
06:59Good afternoon to all your viewers and to you, a small disclosure.
07:02All recommendations that I'll be sharing with you this afternoon on your show,
07:05Sakshi, are a part of our fundamental research team recommendations.
07:09Our company, GeoJet, or myself, we do not have any kind of personal investments,
07:12no financial interest, no conflict of interest.
07:14But we share recommendations on similar lines with our clients,
07:18so they might have their investment interest.
07:20So, Sakshi, as we all know, this is a situation which is developing by the hour and by the day.
07:28Yeah, yes.
07:29Announcement made by President Trump about a five-day ceasefire.
07:36Well, I don't know how much of it to take it, front-load it and how much of it to
07:40discount it,
07:41to be very frankly.
07:42He is known to change his stance and statements very often.
07:46And the fact that Iran has denied that they are into any kind of negotiation directly with the United States
07:52and the fact that the attacks, as you and me speak on the show, Sakshi,
07:57there are still attacks happening by Iran on Israel
08:00and that counter-attack from Israel on Iran.
08:03So, the fact of the matter is that though there are a lot of talks,
08:05corridors are buzzing with a lot of rumors, source-based information,
08:12we will only come to know the outcome of this in the next couple of days.
08:16Saturday is the last day, I believe, of that five-day ceasefire that President Trump has announced.
08:21And the fact is, as you were rightly mentioning,
08:23Indian crude oil basket at $157 per barrel is something that we all need to worry about.
08:29How does retail investor read into this?
08:33My humble request is that you should cut off all the noise pollution which is around you
08:38because there are a lot of experts who have borne in the last 24-48 hours
08:43and they are making all sorts of statements on various social media platforms.
08:48So, try to fine-tune your ability to understand these things.
08:52And more importantly, don't think short-term, think long-term.
08:57Sakshi, the fact of the matter is that this kind of situation, we have seen it earlier,
09:00the unfortunate part this time is that Iran in state of Hormuz is in the question.
09:04And that's one of the biggest problems for us
09:06because we put large part of our energy requirement from that sea route.
09:10So, we have situation on hand, but whenever markets have recovered,
09:14once these situations start de-escalation,
09:18there is, you know, recovery process that has been put in place.
09:22Markets have given you phenomenal return over a longer period of time.
09:26So, that's the hope. All right.
09:28We'll also look at what's happening when it comes to the impact of the war
09:32that global agencies are seeing on countries like India.
09:35Goldman Sachs has now cut India's GDP forecast for 2026.
09:41They have the forecast of 5.9% vis-a-vis a 6.5% that they had penciled in
09:47earlier.
09:48In fact, they have raised India's CPI forecast,
09:51that's the consumer price inflation forecast, to 4.6%.
09:55Goldman Sachs has also mentioned that they see a 50 basis points RBI rate hike
10:00and also a U.S. recession risk that has risen to 30% right now.
10:06So, those are some important statements that we will try to assess as well with Goran.
10:10Goran, how do you read into such statements?
10:13One, of course, despite all these shocks,
10:15first the policy uncertainty, tariff uncertainty,
10:18and now the wars and the supply disruptions that it is going to cause for some time.
10:23Now, it's raising some concerns on whether we will be able to stay put
10:26as far as our growth projections were concerned.
10:29This is the first cut that has come in after the war in West Asia started up for India.
10:34And this is also raising a lot of other concerns,
10:37inflationary concerns, the RBI rate hike concerns,
10:41also with respect to global economy recession in the most developed nations like the U.S.,
10:48also now inching higher.
10:50How are you reading into these sentiments?
10:52Sakshi, this forecast or assumptions by Goldman Sachs is based on the fact that
10:57this will prolong for a long period of time.
10:59What if it doesn't prolong?
11:01What if the next 48 hours or next week or in two weeks,
11:05we do have some resolution, some diplomatic channel being opened up?
11:10And then there is, you know, aggression scaling downwards.
11:16So, the last point I agree, Sakshi, of U.S. going into recession,
11:20I think there is a large probability.
11:22And the reason why I say this, Sakshi, is the Supreme Court in U.S.
11:27has already knocked down the tariff implemented by President Trump.
11:32The figure that they have to refund, according to the sources that I have read some reports,
11:37is $130 billion.
11:39Along with that, if there is some extraordinary claim,
11:42then this figure is likely to move up northwards towards $150 or $185 billion.
11:47Point number one.
11:48Point number two, there is a large bill that is waiting Donald Trump's signature as far as this war is
11:53concerned.
11:53They are bleeding dollars over there and they have a terrible situation in terms of their economy.
11:59There are no buyers for American debt paper, Sakshi, in the market.
12:03So, America does have a problem along with this, you know, war that they have started,
12:08which is meaningless and senseless, according to me.
12:10That's my personal view.
12:11But for India, even if you scale down your GDP growth rate from 7, 7.4 to 6 or even
12:195.9,
12:20as Goldman is saying, there is still not a single economy which can come and match our GDP growth rates.
12:26That's true. Yes.
12:26As far as interest rates are concerned, as far as interest rates are concerned,
12:30I think we'll have to just wait and watch.
12:32We'll have to just wait and watch.
12:34There is also some more news flow that's coming in as far as pharma sector is also concerned, viewers.
12:39So, we'll just get you up to speed with that.
12:42Remember, over the last couple of days, we've been helping you understand what's happening with semaglutide,
12:47the much-talked-about obesity and diabetes drug, especially with semaglutide patent expiry.
12:55There's a flood of GLP-1 weight loss drugs that's hit the market after the patent expiry.
13:00And multiple generic launches have now increased the availability, accessibility,
13:04and also, to a lot of extent, affordability of these drugs as well.
13:09But looking at that, what has happened in India is that India's drug regulator has cited concerns over misuse
13:15and a surge in unauthorized sales as well.
13:18The regulator has now tightened the checks on supply chains of GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
13:24Authorities have also said that enforcement has been stepped up across online platforms, pharmacies, clinics,
13:29to ensure patient safety and prevention of any off-label use as well.
13:34And for more on this, we are now joined by my colleague, Neetu Chandra Sharma, to give us an update
13:39on the same as well.
13:40Neetu, give us an understanding of what has really prompted the drug regulator to step up surveillance
13:47when it comes to GLP-1 weight loss drugs at this point.
13:51Yes, actually, the timing is really crucial for this move from the government of India.
13:56With the semaglutide going off patent in India, multiple lower-cost generic versions have entered the market in a quick
14:02succession.
14:03Now, that has sharply expanded availability across retail pharmacies, online channels, wholesalers,
14:09and even wellness clinics, as you just mentioned.
14:12So, the regulator's concern is that wider access should not lead to misuse and unauthorized sales and off-label promotion.
14:19So, now, since these are prescription drugs with potential side effects,
14:23the government wants to ensure that they are dispensed only under proper medical supervision.
14:27Correct.
14:28So, now, for consumers also, the takeaway is equally important,
14:31as these drugs may be in high demand, but they are meant to be used only under the guidance of
14:37a qualified medical specialist.
14:39Right. So, Neetu, there are also some concerns.
14:42We were talking about a lot of the impact of the war in West Asia and the conflict there.
14:46Just to understand the impact and implications on the pharma industry,
14:51seems like there is going to be also some sort of an impact with regards to input costs in the
14:57pharma industry,
14:59including some widely used medicines like paracetamol.
15:02Are the prices of such key raw materials for such drugs like paracetamol also rising sharply,
15:08and what could that mean for small manufacturers of these medicines applies as well?
15:13Yeah. Yes, actually, that is indeed a concern, and we are seeing this concern among the industry.
15:18We spoke to a lot of industry associations, such as medical devices industry, medium,
15:23and small-sized enterprises who are involved into making medicines and APIs.
15:29So, this week, in fact, in a letter to the government, the Himachal Drug Manufacturers Association has flagged a sharp
15:35spike
15:36in the price of key pharmaceutical raw materials and packaging inputs.
15:40They said that the situation has worsened very quickly over the past two weeks,
15:44and the industry body has specifically cited paracetamol as an example.
15:48It's a very common medicine. We all take it.
15:50They said that its price has risen from around 250 rupees per kg to rupees 450 rupees per kg in
15:57just 15 days.
15:58And the broader concern is that the rising prices of API solvents, excipients, and packaging materials,
16:04they all are involved in the making of medicines.
16:07They are putting heavy pressure on pharma MSMEs, which operate on a very thin margin.
16:11And the association has also warned that if this continues, it could also affect manufacturing viability,
16:18medicines, supplies, and the overall stability of the smaller drug makers.
16:22So, the communication is essentially a call for urgent government intervention
16:26before the cost crisis turns into a supply problem.
16:30Absolutely. It's an important story. Thanks a lot for that update, Neetu.
16:34Viewers, it's not just the oil and the logistics sector,
16:37but other industries now are beginning to feel the pinch of the war on the supply chains at this point
16:43in time.
16:43And, of course, the rising input costs as to how could they really impact the margins going forward.
16:48Let's also look at the other industry, and that's the food delivery industry.
16:52The quick service restaurant stocks are there in focus after these food delivery platforms have hiked the fees,
16:58signaling rising pressure on the pricing.
17:01Swiggy has raised the platform fee. Zomato has raised the platform fee as well.
17:05And this move could also impact ordering trends and margins across the QSR system.
17:09So, to understand the impact, I now have my colleague, Aishwarya Patil, who's been tracking the story as well.
17:14Aishwarya, give us an understanding of how is the entire restaurant chain really looking at the surge in the input
17:23cost pressures
17:24and, of course, the disruptions which first began with the LPG shortage you're in the commercial area.
17:31And now, how are the QSR giants really looking at this surge in the food delivery pricing as well?
17:38Well, if you're a frequent online food delivery buyer, this is going to pinch your pockets
17:44because Swiggy, along with Zomato, consecutively have increased that platform fee.
17:50Swiggy recently has increased that platform fee by close to 3 rupees to about 17.58 is the platform fee
17:59at this point in time.
18:00Earlier, it was about 14.99 as far as Swiggy is concerned.
18:05Zomato had also, earlier, a couple of months ago, also increased their platform fee by about 2 rupees 40 paise
18:13to about 14.9 rupees as their platform fee.
18:19So, both of these food delivery giants have increased their platform fee.
18:25And overall, if we talk about how much will this pinch your pocket as, even if you were a frequent
18:31buyer,
18:32it would be about 400 to 450 on a monthly basis, only spent on platform fee, which is a steady
18:38growth again
18:39for these tech companies because tech costs, app maintenance and overall application operations
18:46is what makes for this particular platform fee.
18:50Both of them have steadily increased the platform fee over time as we've seen it in 2025 also and in
18:572026 as well.
18:59And both these applications deliver about 40 to 45 lakh orders on a daily basis.
19:05So, multiply that with 17, close to 18 rupees and close to 15 rupees for each one of them.
19:12See how big of a revenue addition it makes to some of these applications.
19:18Absolutely, Aishwarya. Thanks a lot for giving us all those updates.
19:21Let me go across to Gaurang quickly.
19:23Gaurang, give us an understanding of how are you reading into the science for various industries
19:28now resorting to either some kind of measures to protect their margins,
19:32to overcome the kind of supply shortage that has hit their order flows
19:37or in the pharma industry like we are reading, there could be some signs of pricing probably going higher.
19:44So, in pharma industry, basically, Sakshi, it's because of the input cost that has gone up
19:49and the transportation cost that has gone up.
19:51Along with that, even Uriya, Sakshi, as we all know, we import large part of it
19:55and there's been a shortage about over there.
19:58So, my sense is that, again, I would go back to the same thing.
20:01It all depends upon how long this unfortunate situation is going to last.
20:06And that particular situation, if it's there for a longer period of time,
20:12I think price hike needs to be put in, not only for pharmaceuticals, but also for fertilizer, Uriya.
20:18And more importantly, once the state elections in four states and one union territory is over, Sakshi,
20:24I think there will be an upward movement in petrol and diesel prices also.
20:27We have to be ready for that.
20:28But as far as quick commerce, food delivery platforms are concerned,
20:33look, Sakshi, if you want the luxury of sitting in your office or sitting at your home
20:37and ordering food from your favorite restaurant, whether it is 12 rupees, 15 rupees or 20 rupees,
20:44right, you are basically looking at luxury.
20:47And if you are living in a lap of luxury, you definitely will have to pay for this kind of
20:52price hikes.
20:54And if you don't want to do that, I think there's one simple thing you can do.
20:56Just walk down to your favorite restaurant, have your lunch and dinner and come back home.
21:01Absolutely.
21:02Let's quickly focus on how the markets are shutting shop today, viewers.
21:05It's a great respite from what we saw yesterday.
21:08Across the board, it was a red screen.
21:10Today, we have some signs of green.
21:12Across the board again, 22,957.
21:15That's where we've ended as far as the Nifty is concerned.
21:17About 445 points higher in trade.
21:19So we managed to inch towards the high point of the day for sure.
21:22The Nifty Bank also up by 2.5%.
21:25So a lot of those banks, PSU banks, private banks, they have definitely supported the momentum today.
21:30IT stocks moved up by 1.8% as well.
21:33In fact, all the sectors, they moved up into the green.
21:35Media stocks, broader markets, mid and small caps, both are up by over 2%, 2.5% as well.
21:40Autos, that's on your screens as well.
21:43All the sectors moved up.
21:45India VIX, in fact, moved down by 6.8% at 24 odd levels in trade today.
21:49But let's also pull up the top gainers and the top laggards in the trading session today
21:53to get us more understanding of what kind of stocks really made money, where was the pressure continuing.
21:59So LNT moved up by 5%.
22:00There was a sharp loss over the last couple of days.
22:03Bajaj Finance about 5% higher.
22:05Zomato improved by about 5%.
22:06Remember, these price hikes are definitely improving sentiments there.
22:10Asian Pains also resorted to some price hikes.
22:12And therefore, you do see a 4.5% uptick on that one as well.
22:16Apollo Hospitals, Ultra Tech Cement.
22:18These are all the stocks that are up over 4-4.5% up in trade.
22:22Let's also look at the laggards.
22:23TCS declined.
22:25You're also looking at some of the other stocks also that managed to decline.
22:30So Power, Great Adani, Enterprises, Sun Pharma.
22:32These are some stocks that declined in trade.
22:34But let me go across back to Gaurang, our guest.
22:36We have a few questions from our viewers, Gaurang, that we want you to answer.
22:41At this point in time, crucial to address those concerns of our investors and viewers as well.
22:45Karan Sharma from Shimla asked the next question.
22:48He says, is now the right time to invest in silver or should I wait for some better prices?
22:56We did see sharp correction in precious metals.
22:59And today we saw a little bit of respite and recovery.
23:03But there are different ways of investing in precious metals.
23:06You can either go and buy it physically straight off your favorite jeweler, your family jeweler shop, gold and silver.
23:12Or there are alternative ideas.
23:14You have silver and gold ETFs listed on the National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange.
23:19And you have mutual funds both on silver and gold.
23:22So you can definitely start at current level since there has been a quite deep correction in both these precious
23:30metals.
23:31Don't put all your money at one time but stagger your investment.
23:33And my sense, Sakshi, is that ETFs or mutual funds, precious metals would be a better option of doing a
23:43SIP and putting lump sum investment.
23:45Fantastic.
23:46Next, we have Prana from Mumbai asking you, which are the top two or three sectors to invest in right
23:51now?
23:52And are markets looking attractive at the current levels after some correction?
23:56They are looking very attractive to me, to be very honest.
23:59I have not stopped my SIP, Sakshi.
24:01They are continuing.
24:02Even during COVID time, they continued.
24:04Even now, they are continuing.
24:05So if the question is relatively with the crude oil prices and the uncertainty that exists right now, my sense
24:12is that you can possibly look at defense sector because defense, according to me, has been my favorite for a
24:21very long time.
24:21Sakshi, we have discussed about it very, very often on your show.
24:26Bharat Electronics is one of them.
24:28MTAR Technologies is the other one with the defense play in mind.
24:31One other sector that is relatively less impacted is healthcare hospitals.
24:38Yes.
24:38So you have names like Apollo Hospital and Fortis Healthcare where we have a buy recommendation.
24:44Okay.
24:44One last question we'll squeeze in.
24:46And this one is from Lalit from Guru Gram.
24:48And he wants to know from you, if you could suggest any food delivery or quick service restaurant stock for
24:53one year investment.
24:56So we have a positive coverage on Eternal, which was earlier known as Zomato Sakshi.
25:01Yes.
25:01And the price correction is very attractive if you have a long time food.
25:08Yes, please go ahead.
25:11Yeah, so we have coverage on Eternal Sakshi from a long time point of view, which was known as Zomato.
25:16And that's the fundamental pick.
25:18Fantastic.
25:19All right, Gaurang.
25:20Thank you so much for joining us and for addressing all these questions of our viewers as well.
25:24And always a pleasure to seek all those wonderful insights and the positive optimism that you always bring into the
25:30show as well.
25:30Thank you so much for being with us.
25:32And with that, viewers, it's a wrap on the Business Today show.
25:34In case you too have any questions about your investments, mutual funds, SIPs or stocks, even gold-related queries,
25:40then please do send them to us on the number that's flashing on your screens.
25:43Many thanks for tuning in.
25:44Don't forget to tune in tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. to catch all the market opening action.
25:50Presented by National Stock Exchange.
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