00:00Kameem Hadass is director of the University of Cambridge's Climate Traces Lab.
00:05Great to have you on Global Business Street.
00:07Now, look, we think of tourism taking a hit in extreme heat.
00:12But what about industries like construction?
00:15You know, are cooler countries now going to need the kind of workplace heat protection
00:20we've traditionally seen in hotter parts of the world?
00:24Thank you so much for having me, absolutely.
00:25And El Nino clearly has an impact on the agricultural sectors.
00:30We know that.
00:31We know that in El Nino year, we have a weaker monsoon in India,
00:34which causes adversity impacts the agricultural sector, which is quite large,
00:38increases domestic food prices, has impact on inflation and economic activity growth and inflation.
00:45So but it also has in many, many different sectors.
00:48So if you look at supply chain disruptions from Chile,
00:52Chile, as you know, is strategically very important in the net zero transition,
00:56because in Chile is the largest producer of copper.
01:00And in El Nino year, Chile has heavy rain, which restricts access to the mining regions,
01:07which are in mountainous regions.
01:09And so what you see is actually copper exports drop, price of copper goes up.
01:14So you have globally both food prices going up and non-fuel,
01:19sorry, non-food commodity prices also going up.
01:22And you also see that, for instance, impacting in Japan, where you have more typhoons impacts.
01:32And it's a colder year. As you said, it becomes colder in some in some places.
01:37And and and what that does is basically consumer spending falls and economic activity in an advanced economy.
01:43Japan actually reduces.
01:45So that's that's the findings from some of the results here at Cambridge,
01:49together with colleagues at the International Monetary Fund.
01:51You're saying that El Nino can really move the dollar when it comes to growth and inflation.
01:55But but, you know, are businesses adapting quickly enough?
01:58Or are they still treating climate shops as as as temporary disruptions?
02:05I think I mean, El Nino's happen every two to seven years.
02:08The one we are going to maybe see later this year is going to be enormous.
02:13The one in 2015, 16 was the Godzilla.
02:15And, you know, this is going to be even bigger.
02:16I don't think if you look at I'll give you the example of, for instance, Chile is very, very difficult
02:23for businesses to adopt to to do the changes that you are observing to El Nino.
02:28So I think I think those disruptions to the global economy, to commodity prices, to fuel prices into a very
02:35fragile global economy, by the way,
02:37because of the state of hormones and the conflict in the Middle East is going to exacerbate the economic costs
02:44for businesses, for consumers and for the aggregate economy.
02:48So absolutely, we have gone.
02:50It's very, very difficult to to be able to completely insulate from an El Nino and in your shock.
02:57Kami Mohadez, Cambridge's Climate Traces Lab. Thank you very much.
03:02Thanks very much.
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