00:00Japan's population stood at 123 million in 2025.
00:04That's down by more than 3.1 million people compared with 2020.
00:09Only two of Japan's 47 prefectures, Tokyo and Okinawa, recorded population growth,
00:17meaning 95.7% of prefectures saw their populations actually shrink.
00:22Hokkaido recorded the steepest population decline, losing nearly 239,000 residents over the past five years.
00:32Japan recorded just over 700,000 births in 2025.
00:37That's down more than 15,000 on the previous year.
00:41It's marking the 10th straight year of declining births in Japan.
00:46More than 36 million people in Japan were aged 65 or older in 2025,
00:51accounting for a record 29.4%.
00:54That's nearly a third of the population.
00:57Japan remains the world's oldest society.
01:00Now, Stuart Gittle-Bastin is a demographer and professor of social science and public policy
01:06at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
01:09These low fertility rates are actually the downstream consequences
01:14of lots and lots of broken structural institutional problems,
01:20whether or not that, and this is why it's very difficult,
01:23no government has been able to kind of crack this,
01:25has been able to really turn this around,
01:27because it's about work culture, it's about employment,
01:30about cost of living, not just about cost,
01:34but cost of education, the psychological cost of education,
01:37about gender roles, which are, of course, very, very rigid in Japan,
01:41gender roles at work, gender roles in the home,
01:44and, of course, those are things which are very, very difficult
01:46for government, really, to design policy to change.
01:49Many of the low birth rate countries are in Europe.
01:53Italy, I think, is a case in point.
01:55What are the shared problems between Italy and Japan
01:58when it comes to this issue?
02:01Well, so I think, firstly, we need to look at the two sides
02:05of this kind of new demographic paradigm,
02:08which is population ageing and population decline.
02:10And it's interesting that you pick Italy there,
02:13because, of course, yes, Italy is ageing,
02:15and Italy is seeing rapid population decline.
02:18Yes, of course, these have huge macroeconomic issues,
02:23macroeconomic and fiscal consequences.
02:25Italy is different, though, of course,
02:27because it has a relatively high rate of immigration,
02:30which can slow both population ageing and population decline.
02:34But, interestingly, one thing which, of course,
02:36Italy and Japan have in common
02:38is very long life expectancies
02:40and very high levels of health.
02:42And this is really one of the ways, I think,
02:45beyond considering fertility rates.
02:48This is really the best way, I think,
02:50for us to respond to these kinds of challenges
02:52is by ensuring that the people who are already alive
02:56are living the best lives that they can,
02:58that they are healthy and that they are productive,
03:00and their focal potential is being met
03:03for as long as possible.
03:04A Japanese person aged 65 in 2050 or 2060
03:09is actually going to be very, very healthy, right?
03:13He's going to be one of the healthiest people on Earth
03:15at that particular age.
03:17And so as long as they are continuing in health,
03:20as long as they're working,
03:21of course, labor force participation among older people
03:23in Japan is high,
03:25as long as they are healthy and productive,
03:27then it doesn't necessarily need to be
03:30their kind of disaster that it's painted out to be.
03:35Of course, Japan has been aware of this problem,
03:38as have other countries for a while now.
03:40What policies have they implemented
03:42and what can the rest of the world learn
03:44about what works and what doesn't?
03:46Japan has tried many, many different things
03:48in common with many other different parts of the world
03:51in order to increase the fertility rate
03:53and has not really managed to achieve that.
03:56And I think the reason for that is,
03:58as I said before,
03:59that it is big structural underlying institutional problems
04:03and challenges which are there.
04:04So just some workplace reforms,
04:07just some childcare policies,
04:08things like that in isolation
04:09is not really going to fix that.
04:11I think where Japan has been very successful
04:13is by looking at the other side of this,
04:16about how can they ensure
04:17that their population ages better.
04:19And that's through not just health,
04:22but kind of long, over the life course,
04:24through their health insurance policies,
04:27through insuring regular checkouts for older people,
04:30but also by developing the silver economy,
04:33by developing economic and social opportunities
04:35around this ageing population.
04:38What in demography we call
04:39the second demographic dividend,
04:41which is developing new goods and services
04:43for older people,
04:44particularly around technology and robotics.
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