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00:00Joining us now is Ambassador John Bolton. He served as the former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. and
00:03also as National Security Advisor to President Trump during the first term.
00:06Mr. Ambassador, great to have you with us once again. Let me start with that line that I repeated there
00:10coming out of that quotation from the President.
00:13We are getting what we want. At this juncture, as we live through this weekend after weekend, the President indicating
00:18he's close to a deal and then silence or no codified deal at the end of a weekend.
00:24And do you feel like the U.S. is getting what it wants out of these negotiations that are taking
00:29place between the U.S. and Iran via the Pakistanis?
00:33Well, I think Trump is getting what he wants. This is a deal about gasoline prices at the pump in
00:38the United States.
00:39Trump worries, obviously, about the price levels people are paying. He's worried about the effect on inflation. He's worried about
00:46the effect on the elections in November.
00:48But this is not a deal that really ends the war in a satisfactory way for the United States. There's
00:53no doubt about it.
00:54If the Iranian regime is allowed to survive, which it looks like Trump is prepared to acknowledge, they will simply
01:02benefit from the reopening of the strait to sell more oil, gain more revenue and entrench themselves in power, giving
01:08them time, rebuild their nuclear program, rebuild their military, rebuild their terrorist proxies.
01:13And in X period of time, we'll be right back where we started from.
01:18Given that, do you think the U.S. was in a safer bet with Iran in the JCPOA than they
01:25will be after this is worked out?
01:29Not at all. The 2015 Obama nuclear deal was a failure on many levels.
01:34It didn't at all deal with Iran's plutonium route to nuclear weapons in the form of the spent fuel at
01:40the nuclear reactor at Bushir.
01:43Just completely left that unattended. And the estimates of the amount of spent fuel there that Iran has by nuclear
01:51proliferation experts say they could they could make between 200 and 400 nuclear weapons just from the plutonium route to
01:58to bombs, not not the uranium enrichment route.
02:01It's a complicated issue. But the fact is that the JCPOA was illusory and Iran's strategic determination to get nuclear
02:10weapons has never changed.
02:12But all those technical issues that you just pointed out, are you confident that given this negotiating team, we were
02:17just talking with our Jeff Mason, our White House correspondent who was saying the negotiating team is essentially Jared Kushner
02:22and Steve Witkoff.
02:23They don't have a lot of technical experts. Do you have any level of confidence that any of those issues
02:27with the previous deal are going to be fixed this time around, given how they are doing this diplomacy?
02:33Well, none, none, whatever. Look, the Iranians are clearly trying to buy time. I mean, they'd like to sell oil.
02:39But this is this is a contest really of perseverance and determination.
02:44They think Trump is closer to buckling than they are. They don't care about the welfare of their people. They
02:49care about preserving the regime. And so we're going through this rope a dope of these talks about talks. The
02:55Economist this week has a great cartoon.
02:58It's a bunch of Ayatollahs speaking to two of the Pakistani mediators. And one Pakistani mediator says to the other
03:05one, tell the Americans they are offering a framework for negotiation of the establishment of a proposal exploring preliminary talks
03:13about the tentative prospect of conversations.
03:16And the other media other mediator says a great plan of action. That's what we're going through now.
03:22Well, we're going to have you read New Yorker cartoons the next time you're on the show. I think that's
03:26I've enjoyed. I've enjoyed that.
03:28New recurring segment. Yeah, exactly.
03:30Ambassador Bolton, what is your prescription for what needs to happen next? We hear the president continue to threaten that
03:34something will happen if they can't come to an agreement.
03:37Of course, what's on the table, as we understand it, is more kinetic action, more military action.
03:41Are you of the camp, as one might expect, that that's something the U.S. should be pursuing right now?
03:46Indeed, what do you see as the path forward here if all that we get out of this is a
03:49one-page document with 14 points on it or an agreement that isn't satisfactory?
03:55Well, I think there are two broad options. One is just to junk the ceasefire, which I think has been
04:00a gift from God to the Iranian regime and go back to full-scale military activity.
04:05If Trump's not willing to do that, I think the minimal that he should do and that we can do
04:09is open the Gulf Arab side of the Strait of Hormuz to get their oil and gas out into international
04:16markets.
04:17Keep the blockade we've got in effect against Iranian exports, but using military force, I think that will be necessary.
04:24Help ensure that exports from the Arab oil-producing countries can get out.
04:30We know from reporting in various publications I won't name, that this week the U.S. has been helping carriers
04:37get out.
04:39They've not been attacked. They're turning their transponders off, going at night, kind of sneaking through.
04:43That's not a lot of traffic to be sure, but I think it shows that the Iranian threat here may
04:48be more hollow than people think.
04:51And to alleviate the pressure on the international economy, I think it's worth using force to open the strait.
04:57I think it helps reestablish deterrence to prevent Iran from trying to turn the strait on and off like a
05:03light switch in the future.
05:04So that's interesting. So one of the criticisms of how this is going is that there's a sequencing issue.
05:09People are saying that the U.S. shouldn't give up its hold on the strait.
05:12They should keep the strait kind of locked down so they can use that on the nuclear leverage side.
05:18You don't see the sequencing issue as a problem here with the way this is being negotiated?
05:21You think they should open the strait and then tackle the nuclear issue?
05:26Well, I think we should keep the blockade against Iranian exports.
05:29So, no, I don't...
05:30Oh, I understand. Apologies.
05:32Yeah.
05:32Absolutely. Yeah, no. But I will say whenever diplomats start talking about sequencing as being the only problem, hold on
05:40to your wallet because it means there's really a bigger problem they're trying to obscure.
05:45I want to ask you about what's happened here as a weapon for Iran in the future. We've talked about
05:49this over the course of the morning as well.
05:51We're talking about the prospects of extending this kind of squishy ceasefire that's been in place now for a few
05:56weeks to 60 days.
05:58It occurs to me that that's not going to prevent Iran from doing this again in the future.
06:02Indeed, as we look back on this conflict, I think what's perhaps most valuable to Iran is putting this in
06:07practice and seeing the havoc that they can wreak by closing this strait to ships from all over the world,
06:12the impact that that's had on the global economy.
06:15Do you have any confidence here that them having done that, this will be a one-and-done thing, that
06:19Iran won't return to this or try to do this again in the future?
06:21Indeed, how does the U.S. put in place any sort of procedure that would keep that from happening again?
06:27Well, I think you bloody them badly militarily to show they cannot close the strait of Hormuz cost-free.
06:35Look, anybody who reads a map can tell that the strait was a potential problem here.
06:39This was known in Trump's first term. I think history will record that his unwillingness or inability to see that
06:46and not to prepare for it in advance
06:48was one of the big mistakes of the operation. We knew, for example, we had to destroy as many of
06:54Iran's missiles as we could
06:56to prevent them from attacking our bases, Israel, our Gulf Arab allies, but we were late in the game in
07:02making sure that they couldn't close the strait of Hormuz.
07:05If they get out of the current situation simply by diplomacy, I think it will lock in in their minds
07:11that they can close the strait again by diplomacy
07:14and not suffer any real consequences. So I think reestablishing deterrence here means defeating the concept
07:21that they can just, on their say-so, act as if they're master of the strait.
07:26Just to put a fine point out, are you suggesting here the commander-in-chief is cartographically challenged,
07:31that he didn't think this through or didn't really understand the gravity of this when he entered into this conflict?
07:36Look, in the first term, I tried to persuade him to adopt regime change as our objective in Iran, unsuccessfully,
07:42obviously.
07:43And we had discussions of it. Plenty of people participated. Closing the strait of Hormuz is always one option that
07:49was available to Iran.
07:51I mean, we should consider that for decades, oil prices have had an implicit subsidy because nobody did try and
07:57close the strait of Hormuz.
07:59Now that play has been made. Nobody can ever be doubtful that they would try and use it again in
08:05the future unless they thought it was just too dangerous for them to do it,
08:08which is all that this regime in Tehran today understands, that they'd be met by force and they'd be defeated.
08:14I want to ask you about that regime because at the onset of this war,
08:18the president was saying that it was time for Iranians to rise up and overthrow the regime.
08:24Encourage them to do it.
08:25Exactly. Use that as one of the justifications for taking military action.
08:27I have several Iranian friends, some with family still in Tehran.
08:31They've suffered under this regime. They hate this regime.
08:34But they have also suffered under this conflict.
08:37And they do not seem to have the capacity or at this point the will, given what's going on, to
08:43even attempt such a thing.
08:44Is the current regime more or less the same level of extreme as the last regime?
08:50And do you think the president should have taken your advice and either not done it or gone all the
08:55way through
08:55and try to enact regime change in Iran?
08:59Yeah. Another mistake that the administration made before the start of the war is they didn't contact opponents of the
09:05regime inside Iran
09:06with a few very minor exceptions.
09:09If Trump was determined not to use boots on the ground, then you'd need all the more to be coordinating
09:16with people inside
09:17who want to try and bring the regime down.
09:19That doesn't mean the people going out on the streets on the first day of the war, this regime massacred
09:24them in January.
09:25They'd massacre them again.
09:26That tells you how the regime feels about its own people.
09:30But given the destruction of the instruments of Iranian state power that our attacks represented,
09:37by working with the opposition inside, I think we could have gone a long way to bringing the regime down.
09:43But we didn't consult with them.
09:45We didn't say, how can we help you organize?
09:47What resources do you need?
09:49Do you need communications, money, weapons?
09:51What do you need?
09:52That requires planning.
09:53It probably requires time.
09:55We just didn't do anything.
09:56And I think we're on the verge of throwing away a great opportunity for more peace and security for us,
10:03for the Middle East, and God knows, for the people of Iran.
10:06We've got a minute left.
10:07I want to ask you what confidence you have in those who are advising the president right now.
10:10I imagine you know some of the principles here, be that Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner.
10:13You've interacted with them in the past.
10:15Are you confident that they have the kind of strategic know-how or sense to improve the situation that exists
10:21right now?
10:23I don't think they understand the kinds of trade-offs they're making.
10:27For example, one of the most controversial aspects that's still very murky in this deal is whether the United States
10:34is going to unfreeze frozen Iranian assets
10:38and make available to them other resources.
10:42I think that would be a huge mistake.
10:44It's one thing to provide unfrozen assets to a real government in Iran that represents the people.
10:50If we provide this government frozen assets, it will entrench itself still further.
10:55And I don't think real estate brokers understand that that's what's at stake here.
11:01It's not about economic development in Iran for that money.
11:04It's about re-entrenching and enabling the regime to stay in power.
11:08That will be very bad politically for Trump if that's what works out.
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