Russia’s spring offensive was meant to deliver a decisive breakthrough in Ukraine—but the results have been disastrous. After launching more than 7,000 attacks and suffering massive losses, Russia gained only a tiny amount of territory while Ukraine’s defenses continued to hold. In this video, we break down the numbers behind Putin’s failed offensive, the tactics that backfired, and how Ukrainian drones, counterattacks, and battlefield innovation are turning Russia’s biggest push of 2026 into a humiliating setback.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Russia's spring offensive was supposed to end it all.
00:03Ukraine would fall. The Donbass would belong to Russia.
00:07Finally, Putin would have everything that he has been demanding in peace talks,
00:11but Ukraine had other ideas. Putin's offensive is finished as Ukraine has done something
00:16devastating to Russia's front line. Russia is trying. It has launched 7,000 attacks.
00:22But all it has in return is a total disaster. Russia's advance is now so slow that Putin's
00:28grandkids won't even live long enough to see victory in Ukraine.
00:32Russia has been trying. Oh, how it has been trying.
00:36According to Deep State, a statistical analysis of Russia's offensive tempo shows that there
00:41has been an increase of 37.5% in the volume of Russia's assault operations over the course of May.
00:47This was Putin's big push. After a couple of bleak months where Russia lost around 70,000 of its
00:53soldiers during the early stages of the spring offensive, this increase in the number of
00:57assaults were supposed to finally break Ukraine. By the end of May, Russia had launched more than
01:027,000 attacks against Ukraine. That is supposed to project power. But when you look at the results
01:08of those strikes, what you really see is desperation. Despite this scaling up of the spring offensive,
01:14Russia achieved practically nothing on the territorial front. By the end of May, all that Russia had to
01:19show for its renewed assault was 14 square kilometers of Ukraine. You heard that right.
01:2414 square kilometers. For context, the measure of things says this is an amount of territory roughly
01:31equivalent to the size of LAX. So Russia has basically managed to capture an airport's worth
01:35of land in a month where it launched more attacks against Ukraine than at any other point in 2026.
01:41That's not just a bad result. It's so utterly catastrophic that Putin could live several
01:46lifetimes and still never see the fall of Ukraine. His grandkids are still going to be watching
01:51Russian troops shatter themselves against Ukraine's defenses at this point. And we're going to do the
01:55math soon to show you just how bad it's gotten for Russia. Before that, there's more about just how
02:00much of a failure all of this is for Russia. The country's advance is now so slow that Russia has
02:05fallen into the red when it comes to territory gains. Ukraine is now liberating more territory than
02:10Russia is claiming. That happened once already in 2026 as April saw Russia record a net territory loss
02:17of 116 square kilometers. But at least Russia had more occupied territory to show for its assaults in
02:22April. According to Euromiden Press and United24 Media, what we've seen in May is record-breaking
02:28for all the wrong reasons from the Russian perspective. Russia has not recorded a month like this since
02:33Ukraine's 2023 counter-offensive, which is a period when Russia was put on the defensive. Back then,
02:39taking territory was put on the backburner until the counter-offensive ended. Now taking territory
02:44is right at the top of Russia's priority list, and yet it's making progress at the same glacial rate
02:49as it was when it wasn't trying to attack at all. That's not just bad, it's humiliating.
02:54Much of this news comes from Deep State, which is an open-source military analyst and provides
02:59constant updates about the situation in Ukraine. In the Telegram post, Deep State shared the details
03:04and offered a small caveat to its figures. Although it should be understood that for security
03:08purposes, we show the advance of the defense forces of Ukraine with a delay. Therefore,
03:13without specifics, we are ready to declare that this is the first month in recent years
03:17after the counter-offensive 2023, when the increase in the occupied territory for the
03:21Katzaps became negative, Deep State declared. Katzaps is a slur used to describe Russian soldiers.
03:27This statement tells us that the figures aren't 100% confirmed just yet, as a few more days of
03:32Ukrainian actions need to be recorded. But let's face it, Putin, things aren't going to look much
03:36better for your military when the final figures roll in. They might even end up looking worse,
03:40especially if Ukraine has pulled off more counter-attacks toward the end of May.
03:44Another caveat is offered up by Euromiden Press, which points out that the figures coming out of
03:48Ukraine right now are relative to the method used to measure advances. Specifically, it notes that
03:53much of the front line is now a grey zone where neither side has definitive control.
03:58Russia has been sending infiltration units into these grey zones to create the illusion of control,
04:02and we'll be covering how that strategy has been backfiring soon. If these infiltrators were
04:07counted, Russia would lay claim to more territory, but they aren't, and they shouldn't be. A handful
04:13of soldiers sequestered away in a hidey hole doesn't amount to control over territory,
04:17just means there are Russians trying to survive in the grey zones as Ukraine hunts them down.
04:22Deep State isn't the only analyst reporting on the sorry state of affairs that is Russia's spring and
04:27summer offensive. The Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, has equally depressing news for Putin
04:32based on its own analysis. In a May 28th report, the ISW said that Russia's president is being fed
04:38maps that feature greatly exaggerated claims about Russia's advance, meaning that everything that he
04:44sees paints a false picture of the reality of his offensive. Again, it comes down to the grey zones.
04:49If just one Russian soldier manages to hide himself in a settlement, Russia acts as if that
04:54settlement is claimed. We can see this in the numbers. According to the ISW, the period between
04:59the beginning of January and May 26th has seen Russia manage to definitively claim just 104 square
05:04kilometers of Ukraine. Divide that by five, and you get an approximate average of 20.8 square kilometers
05:10per month. During the same period, Russian infiltrators have managed to advance into 628 square kilometers
05:16of Ukraine. But again, this isn't control. It just means there are isolated pockets of troops
05:20inside the grey zones that are trying, and often failing, to not die. By comparison, the ISW claims,
05:27Russia has managed to seize 1,619 square kilometers of Ukraine during the first five months of 2025.
05:33Even if we count the grey zones that the infiltrators have entered, Russia has claimed less than half the
05:38amount of territory in the first five months of 2026 than it did in 2025. Take these uncontrolled
05:44grey zones out of the equation and Russia has basically gotten nowhere after tens of thousands of
05:49casualties. Let's dig deeper into some numbers. We told you earlier that not even Putin's grandkids
05:54will live long enough to see Russia defeat Ukraine at this point. We weren't lying. If Russia maintains
05:59its current rate of advance of 14 square kilometers per month in the Donbass region, it will be decades,
06:04even centuries, before Russia fully occupies the region. Right now, Russia still has between 6,000 and
06:117,000 square kilometers of Donetsk to take, which is the part of the Donbass that Russia needs to claim
06:16before it can act as though it owns the region. The spring offensive is mostly focused on this
06:20region and the 7,000 plus assaults that Russia launched in May were so ineffective, largely
06:25because Putin's patsies are going up against the formidable defenses that Ukraine has built
06:29into the Donetsk fortress belt of cities. Splitting the difference will say that Russia
06:34has 6,500 square kilometers of Donetsk left to take. At its current rate of advance, it would take
06:40464 months for Russia to finally take Donetsk. That amounts to about 38.7 years, assuming that
06:46every scrap of territory that Russia takes from now on is in Donetsk. Okay, so Putin will be dead
06:52by then, but his grandkids, and perhaps even his kids, would live long enough to see the fall of
06:56one small region of Ukraine. We're about to make it all so much worse for Putin. Right now, Russia
07:01controls about 20% of Ukraine, according to Reuters. Ukraine isn't a small country. To take it all,
07:07Russia has to occupy 603,550 square kilometers of territory. It has 80% of that territory left to
07:15go, which amounts to 482,804 square kilometers. This is already looking bad for the Putin lineage.
07:22Dividing that number by 14 square kilometers per month gives us 34,488.6 months of fighting left
07:28for Russia to take all of Ukraine. That's 2,874 years. Whatever has sprung from the Putin gene pool
07:36at that point might not even know that they're related to Putin. It's starting to feel like we're
07:40more likely to see the heat death of the universe before we see Russia obtain the ultimate victory
07:44in Ukraine that Putin is so desperate to see. Being a little facetious here. Of course,
07:48the Ukraine war is fluid, and the 14 square kilometers in May doesn't mean that Russia is
07:52only going to claim that much of Ukraine per month from now on. It will have months where it claims
07:57more,
07:57and given what we've seen from Ukraine in 2026 so far, there will be months where Russia is on the
08:01losing end of the territorial battle. Still, Russia is supposed to have one of the strongest
08:05militaries in the world, yet it spent May launching more than 7,000 assaults and sacrificing somewhere
08:12in the region of 1,500 soldiers per day by the end of May, just to take enough land for
08:17an airport.
08:18Egg meet Putin's face. Russia's embarrassment is plain for all to see, as Putin's front line is
08:23clearly collapsing. But that brings us to the key question, how did this happen? A supposed military
08:29superpower has been turned into a minnow, and the story of how 14 square kilometers was the best
08:34that Russia could do in May is equal parts about Russia's utter incompetence and the lethality of
08:39Ukraine's defense. We're about to cover both. But before we do, this is a quick reminder that
08:43you're watching the military show. If you like what you see, remember to subscribe to the channel.
08:48We post daily videos covering the Ukraine war along with other military developments around the world.
08:54First up, Russia's tactical blunders. We've mentioned Russia's infiltration tactics already,
08:59The strategy, which appeared in 2025, is simple. Rather than launching the sorts of large mechanized
09:05assaults that characterized the first few years of the war, Russia now favors sending tiny units,
09:10often with as few as a couple of soldiers, into the gray zones. Their jobs are simple. They find
09:15somewhere to hide and hope that the support comes. All the while, Russia uses these infiltrators to
09:20inflate its numbers, making Russian advances seem more impressive than they really are.
09:24Some believe that this approach is more dangerous to Ukraine, the new voice of Ukraine reported
09:28on May 3rd. It's certainly quieter. Meat isn't being fed into the grinder in quite the same way
09:33as it was before, as Russia's soldiers move under the cover of darkness while keeping radio
09:38communication to a minimum. They're trying to slip through the net rather than tearing the net apart.
09:43But this infiltration strategy is a large part of the reason why the real territory gains Russia is
09:47making are as meagre as we see now. As United24 Media points out, the big benefit of the infiltration
09:53approach in 2025 was that Ukraine wasn't ready for it. Russia managed to advance using small units and
09:59then followed up with larger assaults for much of the year. That's not happening in 2026. Ukraine is
10:05wise to what Russia is doing, which means the handfuls of infiltrators that Russia is sending
10:09now rarely even reach their objectives before they're eliminated by Ukraine's drones. Those that
10:14do reach where they're supposed to go rarely last long, as yet more drones, along with teams on the
10:19ground hunt them down. There's a clue in there about the role that Ukraine is playing in Russia's
10:23failures. Stick with us to find out more. The point here is that there was once a clever Russian
10:28strategy that has become a strategic noose around Putin's neck. All the infiltrators are doing is
10:32moving around the grey zones before they die. They're not actually capturing territory. For Russia to make
10:38any real tactical advances in Ukraine, it needs some element of mechanization to back up its
10:43infiltration strategy. But that's another problem for Putin. Russia doesn't have what it needs to
10:48to strengthen its assaults. Achieving an advance of just 14 square kilometers on the back of over
10:547,000 assaults showcases the complete degradation of Russia's military on both the tactical and
10:59equipment levels. Russia sees that degradation and is desperately trying to solve the problem.
11:04How? By signing deals with the bloody Taliban. We guess terrorists will help Putin do what he
11:09can't do on his own. Though how Russia expects the Taliban to strengthen its assaults in Ukraine is
11:14anybody's guess. There are signs that Russia has a plan here. According to United24 Media,
11:19Russia has made an offer to repair the Soviet-era hardware the Taliban currently has. This is hardware
11:25the Taliban got their hands on when fighting against the Soviet Union several decades ago.
11:30Now Russia is offering to fix it and the reason why seems to be to potentially set up a small
11:34pipeline
11:35of weapons that could flow back into Russia. If that's the plan, then Russia isn't going to be
11:39getting its hands on much. All the Taliban has is legacy hardware such as T-55 and T-62 tanks
11:45and a handful of old helicopters. That sort of equipment is food for Ukraine's drones.
11:50It's not going to help Russia improve the effectiveness of its assaults.
11:54Even if Taliban tanks do somehow end up in Ukraine, Russia's soldiers might not use them.
11:59In an April 28th report, Gwara Media, which is an outlet based in the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv,
12:04claimed that Russian units in the region are actively refusing to conduct mechanized assaults.
12:09They're scared, and they should be. Driving a tank or armored vehicle just makes you a bigger
12:14target for Ukraine's drones, so the muscle that is supposed to back the infiltrators just isn't
12:18coming, even when it's available. Speaking of manpower, that's another factor in Russia's
12:22dismal performance in May. In its report on Russia's utter failure to put a dent in Ukraine's
12:27defenses in May, Euromiden Press says,
12:30The part of Putin's problem lies in the fact that Russia is struggling to recruit enough soldiers to
12:34accompany its increased tempo of assaults, with the amount of meat needed to wear Ukraine
12:39down. Ukraine's military is draining Russian manpower faster than Putin can replace it,
12:43and that's a problem that Russia has faced in practically every month of 2026 so far.
12:49United24 reported on April 1st that Russia had managed to recruit just 22% of its target during
12:54the first quarter of the year, which is a 3% shortfall. That situation isn't getting better,
12:59and it's led to Russia looking everywhere for potential solutions. Foreign mercenaries are being
13:04hired because too many Russians have wised up and realized that a contract to fight for Russia and
13:08Ukraine means they're taking a one-way trip. According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty,
13:13Russia's military has even resorted to tricking drunks on the streets of Russia into signing
13:17contracts. Those intoxicated fools wake up with major headaches, wondering why they're sitting in
13:23military recruitment offices awaiting transport to barracks. Russia's numbers are starting to look bad.
13:28But the real issue behind all of this, and a huge factor in Russia's piddling advance,
13:33lies in the quality of the soldiers that it's recruiting. Russia is pulling from the dregs of
13:37what's available. Dagens reports that some recruits are given two weeks or less of training before they
13:43end up on the front lines. That's not enough to do anything but move forward and hope you don't get
13:47blown up by a drone. None of these recruits will know much about taking or holding a position.
13:53All Ukraine has to do is keep on grinding through the meat, and you get what we've seen in May.
13:577,000 assaults by people who are barely a step up from civilians against seasoned pros in the
14:02Ukrainian military. There will only ever be one result of that, and Russia has just discovered
14:07what it is. And that brings us back to Ukraine. The reason why Russia is having a hard time
14:12replenishing its ranks is that Ukraine is killing them at a ridiculous rate. We touched on that earlier,
14:1770,000 casualties in two months are catastrophic for Russia, and it also showcases just how effectively
14:23Ukraine is countering Russia's infiltration strategy. As for how Ukraine is doing it,
14:28the answer lies in the kill zones. They are getting bigger. And that means the grey zones
14:33where Russian soldiers used to be able to hide to support their country's exaggerated claims of
14:38advance are even more dangerous than ever before. Ukraine's FPV drones were already killers. Now they
14:44have a longer range to go along with their effectiveness. In a June 2 report, Forbes revealed that
14:49Ukraine now has an FPV drone that is capable of hitting targets that are 102 kilometers behind
14:54the front lines. Think about what that means for Russia's infiltrators. Ukraine can now deploy
14:59drones to hunt people and tanks deep into the grey zones without needing a mothership to do it.
15:04Any hint of a mechanized assault can be snuffed out in a heartbeat. Tanks and armored vehicles won't
15:09even get close, which gives Ukraine even more time to hunt down the small units of soldiers that
15:13Russia is sending into the grey zones. As FPV drone technology improves, Ukraine is also using
15:19a new generation of mid-range drones to batter Russia in the rear. Command posts are being taken
15:24out by these drones, meaning that already minimal communication with the front is disappearing entirely.
15:29Ukraine's new drones are also attacking air defenses, opening up more chances to strike and
15:34destroying logistical routes and infrastructure in the rear. This is all about taking out the support
15:38structures on which the frontal assaults stand. And what we see as a result is Russia's poorly
15:43trained cannon fodder getting eliminated by the thousands, no matter how many assaults they
15:47launch. As for what happens next, Putin isn't going to magically come to the realization that
15:52the Russian offensive has collapsed. He'll keep ordering assaults by the thousands and Ukraine
15:56will carry on batting them back. The reality is that Russia's offensive was finished before it
16:01ever got off the ground. 14 square kilometers of ground taken in May is pathetic. It's a total
16:08disaster for Putin and a humiliation that means the Ukraine war will last long after he
16:13and his kids and his kids' kids' kids are long gone. Oh, and all of this is happening as Russia
16:18itself is getting struck over and over by Ukraine. The one thing that Russia still has going for it
16:23is its ability to pull off long-range attacks. The two can play at that game. After Russia attacked
16:28Kyiv, Ukraine responded with devastating strikes deep into the heart of Russia. Find out why this
16:33means that the Ukraine war may be reaching its most critical level yet by watching our video.
16:38And if you enjoyed this video, remember to subscribe to The Military Show so you don't miss any of our
16:43your uploads and thank you for watching.
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