00:00Reform UK has spent months trying to turn national attention into local victories.
00:06Now another party is trying to appeal to some of the same voters.
00:10Restore says it wants a different kind of politics on the right.
00:13The question is whether it becomes a small protest vote
00:16or a real problem for Reform UK in close contests.
00:21Restore is a bit like the party from which it's come from.
00:26Reform is a sort of a one-person cult at the moment
00:30and that's a certain sort of Rupert Lowe who decided he didn't like the sort of the policies
00:36that Reform UK are standing for because he believes they're not hard enough on most particularly immigration.
00:41But of course I sort of mentioned it being sort of built around one person.
00:44Of course that is always the criticism of Reform UK but it's very much Nigel Farage's show.
00:50So in the sense then that we have a kind of split happening
00:53so it's a right-wing party, Reform and now an even more hard-wing party which is Restore.
01:00What is interesting is that Andy Burnham is standing in Makerfield.
01:04We know about the sort of the background to all of that
01:06and he's hoping that that will be the springboard which will get him back into Parliament
01:10which if he can win that sort of by-election
01:12he then will launch a leadership bid against Keir Starmer.
01:17If Reform were only sort of running on that ticket their chances are good
01:22although of course we will sort of see how the next few weeks takes in terms of opinion polls
01:27but of course the view is that if Restore put a candidate up here
01:32the chances are they won't win
01:34but what it may do is deprive votes or leech votes from the Reform candidate
01:39and by splitting the vote then Andy Burnham's chances increase.
01:43So of course there is some sort of view about this in the sort of the more writer-centred press
01:48that sort of Restore are undermining sort of reform
01:51and this may indeed lead to an Andy Burnham sort of premiership.
01:55But hey we shall see.
01:57Restore is led by Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth
02:01who was elected for Reform UK before leaving the party after a serious internal dispute.
02:08It presents itself as a new political home for voters who think Reform UK is not going far enough.
02:14Its platform includes lower tax, smaller government, secure borders, national pride,
02:20traditional Christian principles, free speech and direct democracy.
02:25That creates a direct challenge for Nigel Farage's party.
02:28In local elections, council contests and parliamentary seats.
02:33Even a small share of the vote can change the result
02:35if support is split between parties chasing the same voters.
02:40They're not quite in the sort of some of the sort of really far right parties
02:43that we see in Main Street Europe, particularly sort of the AFD in Germany.
02:47But nonetheless, yeah, I mean we're sort of seeing a sort of a shift as it were.
02:50Well in fact we're seeing a shift on both ends of the spectrum.
02:53Sort of the centre ground has been pretty much occupied in sort of recent years
02:56and if not a generation between sort of the Labour Party and the Conservatives.
03:01But while what we're seeing is a shift in terms of sort of the Greens
03:04who are now sort of seeing this as that leftwards
03:07and maybe even some offshoots there.
03:10It's a splintering of politics.
03:12But hey, you know, restore.
03:14You know, they're not going to get banned.
03:15You know, they're not that extreme.
03:17But it certainly is extreme enough.
03:19And they're tapping into what would appear to be a certain zeitgeist
03:22amongst certain voters who believe they've been let down by the establishment parties.
03:27The first major test is the Makerfield by-election
03:30where Labour's Andy Burnham is trying to return to Westminster.
03:34Polling has put Restore at between 3% and 7% there.
03:38That might sound modest, but in a close race it could still matter.
03:42If those voters would otherwise have backed Reform UK,
03:46Labour or the Conservatives could benefit from the split.
03:49Polls do not prove what will happen on polling day
03:52and by-elections can move quickly.
03:54But the warning for Reform UK is clear.
03:56If Restore can take even a few percent in Makerfield,
04:00the same pattern could affect marginal seats elsewhere.
04:03So we may see that in sort of Makerfield
04:06where of course by sort of, as I say,
04:08leeching votes from sort of reform results in sort of Andy Burnham slipping in.
04:14And do I think it's going to be any different than this next election?
04:17I don't.
04:17You know, there seems to be no mood, as it were, in Parliament
04:21for sort of changing the electoral system.
04:23We tried that a number of years ago and there wasn't sort of a mood.
04:27But in my opinion, if I'm allowed to sort of say,
04:29yeah, the sooner we move towards a system of proportional representation,
04:33which of course does mean you get a sort of rainbow coalition,
04:36you get sort of the right to the left and whoever it might be.
04:39But of course, it does mean that the larger parties,
04:41they don't get the sort of sweeping majority that we saw,
04:44certainly in sort of the 2024 election.
04:47And maybe that's a good thing.
04:48But of course, what it probably does mean,
04:50we end up in a sort of world of permanent coalitions.
04:52And we've seen that happen in Europe.
04:54And of course, it does mean,
04:55it causes a lot more instability and chaos following elections.
04:58But hey, politics is nothing if not interesting.
05:01One by-election will not decide the next general election.
05:05But if Restore takes votes from Reform UK in close contests,
05:09it could affect council and parliamentary races here in our part of the world too.
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