Ukraine’s resilience is reshaping the Russia-Ukraine war. Retired US Army General Ben Hodges explains why he believes Russia is losing momentum in 2026, pointing to massive casualties, stalled offensives, Ukraine’s expanding drone warfare, strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, growing European support, and Kyiv’s booming defense industry. Could this be the turning point that changes the course of the conflict? Watch now for a deep dive into the strategies, setbacks, and realities shaping the modern battlefield.
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00:00The momentum of the Russia-Ukraine war has shifted dramatically.
00:04Somehow, against all the odds, Ukraine has found ways to severely weaken and frustrate one of the world's largest military
00:11forces,
00:12despite beginning this conflict as the ultimate underdog.
00:15Now, many prominent military analysts argue that Ukraine has a realistic path to preventing a Russian victory,
00:22even as the war continues to grind on and Moscow presses ahead with its attritional strategy.
00:27One of those military minds is Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. Army officer who served as the commanding general
00:35of United States Army Europe
00:36and later as NATO's senior mentor for logistics.
00:40Hodges is a man with decades of military experience and almost unparalleled insight into tactics, strategies and the shifting dynamics
00:48of modern conflicts.
00:50When he talks, people listen, and he's had plenty to say about the war in Ukraine over the years.
00:55In fact, he's been one of the most outspoken believers in the prospect of some sort of Ukrainian victory since
01:02the early stages of the war.
01:04In September 2022, for instance, when much of the world's media was convinced that Russia would inevitably have too much
01:11money, might and manpower for Ukraine to resist,
01:14Hodges wrote an op-ed in the telegraph entitled Prepare for Russia itself to disintegrate, in which he argued that
01:21Russia would not only lose the war,
01:24but that the entire Russian Federation as we know it would collapse in the ensuing fallout.
01:29He has repeatedly called out what he perceives as the failures of the Russian government, singling out Putin himself for
01:35particularly sharp criticism.
01:37Even as the war has shifted back and forth, with completely different dynamics evolving over time, like the shift from
01:44mechanized assault to drone warfare,
01:46Hodges has largely maintained his viewpoint that Russia cannot and will not emerge victorious.
01:52Over time, some of Hodges' broader assessments about the war have resonated with more and more analysts.
01:59In 2026, he continues to hold that view and shared some of his more recent thoughts on the conflict during
02:06an in-depth interview on the Decoding Geopolitics podcast with Dominic Pressel in early May.
02:11During his opening remarks of that interview, Hodges stated,
02:15It's clear that the momentum has shifted to the advantage of Ukraine.
02:19That doesn't mean that Ukraine's about to win or something like that,
02:23but I think it becomes increasingly clear that there's no way that Russia can actually defeat Ukraine.
02:28When asked to elaborate, Hodges touched on five major reasons why this has happened, and we'll explore each of those
02:35in detail.
02:35The first is casualties, with Hodges quite clearly stating,
02:39This momentum has shifted in part because of the enormous casualties that Ukraine has inflicted on Russia.
02:46Casualties now, for the first time, exceed what Russia is able to bring into the army.
02:50The data backs this up, and the official numbers make for quite grim reading from the Kremlin's perspective,
02:56with a reported 352,000 Russian soldiers killed in the war with Ukraine between the day it began and the
03:03end of 2025.
03:04That figure was announced by exiled Russia media outlets Meduza and MediaZona on May 9, 2026,
03:13which is also the date of Russia's annual military parade celebrating victory over Nazi Germany during World War II.
03:19To calculate the country's losses, MediaZona worked in conjunction with the BBC Russian service to compile an extensive database of
03:28confirmed soldier deaths,
03:29using a range of sources like social media posts and official probate records to help them.
03:35That database includes approximately 218,000 confirmed names of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.
03:41To arrive at the 352,000 estimate, MediaZona and Meduza then looked at the excess male mortality rate for younger
03:50age groups seen in the probate records.
03:53Their estimate appears accurate, as other organizations covering the war have arrived at similar figures.
03:59The Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS for example, which is a Washington-based think tank,
04:06stated in January that around 325,000 Russian soldiers, plus 140,000 Ukrainians, had likely been killed in the war
04:14by the end of 2025.
04:16These figures don't include the casualties recorded in 2026, which have reportedly seen tens of thousands more Russians killed along
04:24the front lines and countless others injured as well.
04:27The estimates also don't cover the deaths among foreign fighters and soldiers fighting for Russia in the various militias that
04:33are formed throughout the occupied Ukrainian territories,
04:36so the Kremlin's losses are likely to be significantly greater.
04:40That might explain why Russia goes to such great lengths to conceal any information about its casualty rate,
04:46sometimes even deleting data from public records or blurring satellite pictures of military cemeteries,
04:52so that Russian research groups and the general public don't realize the extent of the country's losses.
04:58But the Kremlin can't hide the truth forever.
05:01Even as it scrambles to block apps, ban VPNs and cut the Russian public off from the outside world,
05:07countless media reports continue to reveal the truth.
05:11Russia has suffered far greater casualties than Ukraine and continues to throw its troops into the fires of the front
05:17lines,
05:18banking on its brute force tactics to eventually pave the way to victory.
05:22For years, it got away with it.
05:25Now, however, as Hodges notes, Russia's manpower reserves are starting to run dry.
05:30In May 2026, data show that the Kremlin's forces had lost more men than they were able to recruit for
05:37five straight months in a row.
05:39To be more precise, Ukraine's unmanned systems forces estimated that Russia recruited around 148,400 people from December 2025 to
05:49April 2026.
05:51In that same period, it suffered 156,735 confirmed casualties, with March and April seeing around 34,000 losses each.
06:01The longer this goes on, the worse it's going to get,
06:04because Russia can no longer survive on the doctrine of simply treating its soldiers like cannon fodder
06:10and relying on a seemingly infinite supply of fresh-faced recruits to take their place.
06:14Its army is no longer getting bigger or even staying the same size.
06:19It's shrinking little by little with every passing month.
06:23The smaller it gets, the weaker it gets, and the more opportunities that open up for Ukraine.
06:28Kiev's commanders are already raising their expectations and setting even higher targets,
06:33hoping to start eliminating up to 50,000 Russian troops every month by the end of 2026.
06:39If they can even get close to that target, it will already be an enormous victory,
06:44as Russia is already failing to compensate for losses of around 30,000 to 35,000 soldiers per month,
06:50so it would find it utterly impossible to deal with losses of 40,000 or more.
06:55Indeed, the country has seemingly resorted to increasingly desperate measures to ramp up its recruitment,
07:02indulging in everything from blackmail to propaganda to misleading marketing campaigns aimed at tricking students
07:08into signing up as drone operators before shipping them off to frontline kill zones.
07:13But it's not working.
07:15The numbers aren't going in the direction that the Kremlin wants them to.
07:19Casualties are rising while recruitment stagnates, and that also translates to even poorer performance on the battlefield.
07:26Which leads us neatly onto Hodge's second reason behind Russia's downfall and Ukraine's rise.
07:32There's no meaningful progress for months now on the ground by the Russian forces.
07:37Alongside casualties, one of the most important metrics for measuring the success of a military campaign,
07:43especially an invasion or attempt to conquer another country, is territory.
07:46If an invading force captures a significant amount of land with every passing day, week and month, that represents success.
07:54If a defending force is capable of holding its ground and slowing the enemy's advances,
07:59or even cancelling them out by recapturing lost land, it typically suggests that the invaders are failing.
08:05As Hodge's and Pressel note in the interview, Russian advances slowed in many areas throughout 2025,
08:12and almost came to a complete standstill during the early part of 2026.
08:17Indeed, during several months of this year, Russia has actually suffered net losses of land,
08:22with Ukraine managing to retake more than it lost.
08:25Hodges cites Ukraine's development of drones at scale as one of the core reasons behind this,
08:31as well as its ability to track down any Russian unlucky enough to get caught out in the open somewhere.
08:37He explains how Ukraine has effectively created kill zones all along the front lines,
08:43areas that Russian troops are utterly unable to penetrate,
08:46where the Kremlin's commanders cannot amass any sizeable formations to make the kinds of gains they need.
08:51Instead, their small assault squads are simply wiped out over and over again.
08:57The Kremlin has reportedly been looking into different tactics to work around this issue,
09:02like sending even smaller squads to infiltrate Ukrainian locations,
09:05but Hodges doubts that this will be enough to actually impact the war in any major way,
09:10especially when combined with the three additional reasons he lists for the changing state of play in the war today.
09:16Now, before we get into those remaining reasons, this is why we make the military show,
09:22to explain how power really moves.
09:24So, if you're new here, hit subscribe so you don't miss what's next.
09:29Lieutenant General Hodges also points to Ukraine's strategic intelligence as another huge factor behind the changing course of the war.
09:37The other reason that the momentum has shifted is because it looks like Ukraine has developed a theory of victory
09:43that's accomplished by destroying Russia's ability to export oil and gas.
09:47They now have enough precision long-range weapons that can strike refineries over a thousand kilometers away, deep inside Russia.
09:54As Hodges explained, barely a week seems to go by anymore without reports of a Russian oil refinery
10:00or other piece of energy infrastructure being blown up and set ablaze by Ukrainian drones and missiles.
10:06And this all ties into a long-running strategy that Kyiv has been pursuing for several years,
10:12but which really ramped up in 2025 and onward into 2026 when attacks on refineries, pipelines, processing plants, terminals,
10:21and other critical oil and gas sites increased enormously.
10:25The logic behind these attacks is simple.
10:27Russia is pouring billions of dollars into this war, and it's relied on its oil industry to provide those funds.
10:34Oil is the backbone of the Russian economy.
10:36It's the reason that Putin has been able to keep the war going as long as he has.
10:40Even under sanctions from large parts of the Western world,
10:44the Kremlin has continued to sell huge amounts of oil and gas to other countries, like India and China,
10:49bringing in billions to pay for its extortionate procurement, production, and recruitment campaigns.
10:54The key, therefore, to ending this war isn't to kill every Russian soldier or blow up every Russian tank.
11:01It's to strike at the source and sever that constant stream of money into Moscow's coffers.
11:06To do that, all Ukraine has to do is find and annihilate its enemy's major pieces of oil infrastructure.
11:13In the early stages of the war, it didn't necessarily have the means to do that,
11:17and was much more preoccupied with defending its territory and fending off the Russian assaults.
11:22Now, however, Ukraine has better drones, stronger missiles, more intelligence, and greater weapon systems than ever before.
11:30It can pinpoint Russian refineries and strike them with lethal precision, and the impacts of these attacks all add up.
11:37Every fuel tank that goes up in flames represents a win for Kyiv and a loss for Moscow.
11:42Every fire, every explosion, every shutdown matters in the greater scheme of the conflict,
11:48because the less money Russia has, the more difficult it's going to be to keep this war going.
11:53As Hodges says, if the Ukrainians are able to continue doing this, it really becomes difficult for Russia to pay
12:00for this war going forward.
12:01And while Russia gets poorer, Ukraine is growing richer.
12:05Which brings us to the fourth big point highlighted by Ben Hodges,
12:09the enormous level of financial support provided to Kyiv from its Western allies.
12:14While sharing his view that the United States is not going to be part of the solution for Ukraine,
12:19Hodges takes heart from the fact that Europe is doing its bit.
12:22The rest of Europe is waking up to realize that they need Ukraine even more than Ukraine needs them,
12:28and that the best way to prevent Russia from invading the rest of Europe is to help Ukraine defeat Russia.
12:33He goes on to say that Germany is leading the way in this respect,
12:37but other countries are also stepping up to the plate and giving as much as they can to help Ukraine.
12:43Hodges mentions the political defeat of the former Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orban,
12:48a man who had long been seen as Putin's insider within NATO and the European Union,
12:53always meddling, disrupting and delaying European efforts to aid Ukraine however he could.
12:58It was because of Orban, for example, that it took several months for a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine
13:04to actually be finalized.
13:05Now, however, with Orban out of the picture and a much more pro-Europe prime minister taking his place,
13:12that money is, at last, flowing freely into Ukraine, providing a much-needed boost to the country's defense industry
13:18as it attempts to press its advantages, capitalize on Russia's vulnerabilities,
13:22and prepare for the next summer offensive that Moscow is preparing to send its way.
13:27Hodges notes that European countries aren't doing all of this out of charity,
13:32but for the good of Europeans and the very existence of Europe as we know it.
13:36As he puts it,
13:37Your choices are Ukraine falls, then the Russians are going to be at your doorstep,
13:42or you help Ukraine financially, materially, and helping to stop shadow fleet vessels carrying Russian oil,
13:48all of these things.
13:49This is what Europe should be doing, and it's for their own good.
13:52I think if that happens, it becomes increasingly difficult for Russia to sustain this war.
13:57Finally, the former commander of United States Army Europe
14:01discusses Ukraine's remarkable defense industry evolution as the last vital piece of the puzzle.
14:06I think Ukraine's defense industry has grown significantly,
14:10and that they're able to produce more of what they need than maybe was the case in the past.
14:14He notes that this is likely why there are fewer reports nowadays
14:18about Ukraine running low on artillery or ammunition, for example,
14:22because it's now able to produce large parts of the munitions it needs domestically.
14:26It's also been able to bring multiple innovative projects to fruition,
14:30like the much-talked-about Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles,
14:33as well as the dozens of deadly new drones rolling out to frontline locations,
14:38courtesy of the hundreds of new defense firms that have sprung up across Ukraine since the war started.
14:43There's no doubt that Ukraine's defense industry today is light-years ahead of what it was just a few short
14:49years ago.
14:50Indeed, in 2022, Ukraine was barely a speck on the map when it came to military development and production.
14:56Now, it's regarded as one of the world's leading military powers,
15:01with other countries quite literally lining up to place orders of Ukrainian drones and defense systems
15:06and invest in the country's contractors.
15:08Even when Ukraine has faced challenges, like manpower shortages or limited shipments of vital air defense systems from its Western
15:16allies,
15:16its defense industry has adapted accordingly and its commanders have identified and deployed the most effective solutions.
15:24The country's military has become increasingly reliant on drones, for example.
15:28It now uses unmanned aerial vehicles to protect frontline positions, eliminate Russian assault squads,
15:35and limit its casualties even in the most heavily contested locations.
15:39Moving forward, Hodges imagines a hypothetical scenario in which Ukraine could continue to expand and innovate its military capacities,
15:47potentially leaning more heavily on artificial intelligence to create entire battalions of troops that are protected by drone swarms,
15:53allowing them to march on Russian positions and recapture even more lost land.
15:58That's all theoretical for now.
16:00But in the meantime, Russia is absolutely experiencing the real-world consequences of all the points that Hodges raised,
16:08from its spiraling casualties to its burning oil infrastructure.
16:12The simple and inevitable result of all these diverse but equally significant factors is that Russia is losing momentum and
16:19losing this war.
16:20Putin can no longer hide from that fact as even his most ardent supporters are starting to turn against him.
16:28As Hodges notes,
16:29you're starting to see more and more Russians, either mail bloggers or people on YouTube or wherever,
16:34that are complaining openly about the war, about Putin, and so on.
16:38So, it's not just that his war machine is running on fumes, that his recruitment campaigns are failing,
16:45and that his tactics are proving inept.
16:47But Putin is now also facing the very real prospect of the Russian public fully turning against him,
16:53as more of them feel the effects of this war in their own everyday lives.
16:57And that, for the man who wants to present himself as the modern-day Peter the Great, may prove too
17:02much to bear.
17:03It might even explain why, in his recent address to the nation, Putin openly stated that the war may be
17:09coming to an end at last.
17:10He might be right, but it certainly won't be the glorious end he envisioned back when this began in February
17:162022.
17:18Instead of celebrating a crushing Russian victory,
17:21Putin may be realizing that he has little option left but to wave the white flag
17:25and finally face the consequences of the worst decision of his career.
17:29Now, you can learn more about how Ukraine is making the most of the turning tide to regain lost land
17:36in this video.
17:37Alternatively, check out this video to see how Kyiv's defenders are raining down hell,
17:42not just along the front lines, but deep into Russia,
17:45sending the message that nowhere in Putin's vast territory will ever be safe again.
17:50And finally, make sure to subscribe to The Military Show too, for more insightful analysis and breaking military news you
17:57won't want to miss.
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