Lukashenko Just Said the UNTHINKABLE… This Is What Putin FEARED Most

The Military Show

Putin expected Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko to obey without question—but Ukraine's pressure changed everything. After Kyiv issued an ultimatum, Lukashenko made a shocking move that embarrassed the Kremlin and exposed Russia's weakening grip over its closest ally. Is Belarus preparing for war, or is Lukashenko simply fighting to stay in power? This analysis explores why Putin's most loyal partner may no longer trust Russia to protect him—and what it means for the war in Ukraine.  ⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Putin Pressures Belarus Over Ukraine War 02:03 - Lukashenko Shuts Down Russian Drone Relays Early 03:53 - Russia Ukraine War Casualties Reach 30000 Monthly 06:44 - Belarus Military Buildup Increases Soldiers 1.5 Fold 11:42 - Ukraine 900000 Active Troops Dwarf Belarus Military 14:51 - Will 60 Percent of Belarusians Reject Putin?  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow  SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/jqQmqJCp

Transcript

00:00He was supposed to be Putin's favorite puppet. The man who would say,

00:04how high, whenever Putin told him to jump. But something has changed about Belorussian

00:09dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Putin has told him to jump once more, but the response

00:14wasn't what Russia's leader expected. Lukashenko has done the unthinkable.

00:19He has humiliated Putin by backing down to threats that Ukraine made.

00:23What we have now is the story of a dictator who is waking up to the fact that he never

00:28wanted to accept Russia can't protect Belarus. And that means Putin can't force Lukashenko into war.

00:36Putin has been trying to pile on the pressure. As Russia struggles to do much of anything in

00:41Ukraine, Putin has been making it very clear to Lukashenko that the once faithful dog must bite

00:46when commanded. As the Kyiv Post reported on June 25th, Putin has been ramping up the pressure on

00:52the closest ally that he has left in Europe. Russia wants Belarus to play a bigger part in

00:58Putin's war. That includes allowing Russia to launch more drones from Belorussian territory,

01:03and perhaps even to open up a new front, using the Belorussian military for Ukraine to contend with.

01:09But Lukashenko hasn't been fast enough to move for Putin's liking.

01:13That has led to Putin telling his lapdog that Belarus will receive less financial support from Moscow

01:18if it doesn't cooperate with everything that Putin demands. That's a grave threat. Over 40% of

01:25Belarus' total exports, along with 55% of its imports, are linked to Russia.

01:31And for a minute there, it looked like Lukashenko was going to acquiesce to Putin's demands.

01:36Even though he has been calling for peace between Russia and Ukraine, which itself was a massive

01:41turnaround from the days that Lukashenko argued that Russia could crush Ukraine, the Belorussian

01:45dictator has claimed that,

01:47We will be next to Russia, while threatening that,

01:49This war will be completely different if Ukraine tries to drag Belarus into the fight.

01:53But these are the words of a very scared man. And we can see that from Lukashenko's moves when

01:59Ukraine decided to ramp up some pressure of its own. As Putin was trying to push Lukashenko into the

02:04war, Ukraine delivered a warning. Lukashenko had one week to shut down the Russian drone relays

02:09stationed on Belarusian territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared on June 19th.

02:15There is no need for extra words. On his towers there are relay stations. Russian relay stations.

02:20Belarusian. What difference does it make? Zelensky said, noting that these relays have

02:25been used to direct Russian drones to Ukrainian civilians. Shut them down, Zelensky said,

02:30taking a more aggressive tone toward Lukashenko than we've seen at any other point during the war.

02:35Ukraine's president gave Lukashenko a week. That warning prompted Putin's pressure.

02:40And for Lukashenko, he faced a nightmare situation. No longer able to appease Putin with words and

02:46some relay stations, the dictator found himself stuck between a rock and a hard place,

02:50should he crumble under Russian or Ukrainian pressure. We got our answer on June 24th.

02:56That's the date that the Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, revealed that Lukashenko has made

03:01a big move that has humiliated Putin, and made Russia's leader realize just how limited the

03:07extent of his reach really is. The puppet turned off the signal repeaters stationed along the

03:11Belarusian-Ukrainian border, and he did it at least two days earlier than the deadline Zelensky set.

03:17This is fear. Lukashenko realizes that he should be terrified of Ukraine, and despite all of his bluster,

03:23this one move has made it very clear that the dictator doesn't want to get involved in Putin's war.

03:29There are still things that remain to be seen. We know the relay stations have ceased their

03:33operations, but we don't know if they've been torn down altogether. For now, stopping them is enough

03:38because of the message that it sends. Lukashenko doesn't want to anger Zelensky more than he already

03:44has. And what we're seeing now is a dictator who is hedging his bets rather than throwing all of his

03:49support behind Putin. As insane as Lukashenko may sometimes seem, he is at least shrewd enough to be

03:55paying attention to what's happening in Ukraine right now. For a man who is desperate to retain

04:00his grip on power in Belarus, what he sees shows him that it's not a good idea to get on

04:04Ukraine's

04:05bad side. Lukashenko is watching as Russia continues to sacrifice over 30,000 of its soldiers every month

04:12to a spring and summer offensive that was supposed to destroy Ukraine, but has ended up showcasing the

04:18weakness of the Russian military. Lukashenko would likely have seen the ISW data, which tells us that

04:24Russia actively lost control of 280 square kilometers in May, only gaining 40 in the process.

04:31Russia is in the red. It's Ukraine that keeps on coming out on top for net territory gains,

04:36which it also achieved in April. And that tells Belarus' dictator that Russia isn't the all-conquering

04:41power that he has so long claimed it to be. Russia is fragile, and Lukashenko knows that Ukraine is

04:48the reason why. Lukashenko also sees what terrifies him the most, Ukrainian long-range drones conducting

04:55strikes all over Russia. Over the past month or so, St. Petersburg has burned due to Ukrainian drones,

05:01Moscow has been hit several times. These are the Russian seats of power and the regions that Putin so

05:08desperately wants to shield from the war, yet Ukraine strikes them over and over again.

05:13Then there's Belarus. With no real drone defenses. Basically, nothing to protect it against the

05:19swarms of Ukrainian drones, should Zelensky choose to unleash them. What Lukashenko really sees is that

05:26Russia is losing the war. And not only is Lukashenko seeing this, but he's also saying it. Belarus'

05:32dictator has told foreign media that he no longer believes that Russia can win the war militarily.

05:37Granted, he said the same thing about Ukraine, suggesting the two sides had reached a stalemate.

05:42But this is still a massive leap from the days when Lukashenko was gung-ho about Putin and the

05:46inevitable collapse of Ukraine. In 2022, Lukashenko allowed Russia to invade Ukraine from Belorussian

05:53territory. Now he won't even keep the signal relays up and running, all because Zelensky gave him a

05:58deadline. Lukashenko has transformed from one of Putin's most ardent supporters to somebody who crumbles to

06:05Ukrainian pressure. But if you've been paying attention to other things that are happening in

06:09Belarus, you may be wondering if this is all real. As he crumbles to Ukraine, Lukashenko has been

06:14making other moves that contradict the idea that he's finally saying no to Putin. But these moves

06:19aren't as they seem. It may look like Lukashenko is gearing up to join Putin's war. However,

06:25what he's really doing will shock you and will also reveal to Putin that at the end of the day,

06:29Lukashenko is always going to turn to whoever is best at keeping him in power.

06:43So, we're seeing a contradiction in the things that Lukashenko is doing. On the one hand,

06:48he's caving to Ukrainian pressure and shutting down the relay stations. But on the other hand,

06:53there's no denying the evidence of our own eyes. Belarus is re-militarizing at a scale that we've

06:58yet to see during Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The Atlantic Council reported on this on June 25th,

07:04under a headline that suggests that Lukashenko is actually preparing to get involved in the war.

07:09We also know that Putin has made a big deal about transferring tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus,

07:14though that has yet to be independently verified, despite Belarus and Russia teaming up for joint

07:19nuclear drills on Belarusian territory back in May. Belarus is also removing the political,

07:24legal and military barriers that limit its involvement in Putin's war, which all seem

07:29on the surface to be bad signs. Lukashenko himself has announced selective mobilization in Belarus,

07:35again in May, which again is seen as preparations for a potential war. But perhaps the biggest warning

07:40comes from a report that Belarus' opposition in exile has submitted to Ukraine's foreign ministry.

07:45That report highlighted eight key indicators that Lukashenko is indeed gearing up for war,

07:50which include a military doctrine passed in 2024 that allows for preemptive strikes and a 1.5-fold

07:57increase in the number of soldiers contracted to the Belarusian army since 2022. All of this points

08:03to the exact opposite of what we've just been telling you, so what gives? How can Belarus be backing

08:09down to Ukraine when it's clearly preparing for war? All is not as it seems. There's no denying what

08:15Lukashenko is doing to strengthen the Belarusian military. However, he isn't doing all of this to

08:19prepare for war with Ukraine. There's another reason, and it all comes down to the type of man

08:24that Lukashenko is. He's a dictator. And as much of a puppet as he's been for Putin for so many

08:30years,

08:30if there's one thing that dictators value more than alliances, it's the power that they hold in

08:35their countries. The reality of the Belarusian military buildup is that it doesn't really matter

08:40anywhere near as much as it might seem, at least where Ukraine is concerned. Belarus is a military

08:45minnow. Selective mobilization won't change that. The country has always maintained a small army,

08:51most likely because Lukashenko believed that he could always rely on Russia to defend his territory

08:56if it ever came under threat. Or perhaps more accurately, he could rely on Putin to keep him in

09:01power. That's why we've seen so much integration between the Russian and Belarusian militaries over

09:06the last few years. Lukashenko truly believed that he was betting on the right horse when Putin launched

09:12his invasion. Then the last four plus years happened and Lukashenko experienced a very rude awakening.

09:19So when we watch as Belarus builds up its military, we shouldn't be looking at what's happening from

09:23the perspective that Lukashenko is preparing to join Putin in Ukraine. That would be suicide,

09:28both for Belarus' tiny military and the country itself. No, what Lukashenko is really doing here is

09:34what all dictators of smaller countries do when the stuff hits the fan and their great protectors expose

09:39themselves. Lukashenko is protecting himself. The Belarusian dictator sees how badly the Ukraine war

09:45is going for Russia and he realizes that his number one priority right now is to protect himself.

09:51That's the reason for the selective mobilization and military build-up. Lukashenko is under no

09:56illusion that his people love him. There's a reason why his main opposition has been forced into exile,

10:01which is that Lukashenko knows that it wouldn't take much for them to build up the support needed

10:05to boot him out of power if they were in Belarus. Now that he sees that Russia is failing as

10:11badly

10:11as it is in Ukraine, remember 30,000 plus casualties per month and actively losing territory to Ukraine,

10:17Lukashenko isn't getting ready to join Putin in his invasion. He's preparing the Belarusian military

10:22to protect himself when everything goes sideways. And there's more evidence for this point of view than

10:28you might think. For a start, despite all of his outward support for Putin, Lukashenko hasn't allowed Russia

10:33to invade via Belarusian territory since the early days of the invasion. For over four years,

10:38there have been no Belarusian soldiers in Ukraine. Lukashenko didn't make the leap to war when things

10:43were going comparatively well for Russia, and he isn't going to do it now that he sees that Russia is

10:48losing. Then there's that hedging that we talked about earlier. Shutting down the relay stations is

10:52an example. That's Lukashenko's way of telling Ukraine that he doesn't want Belarus to seem like a threat.

10:58Even before that shutdown, June 16 brought with it the news that Lukashenko had outright said,

11:03that Belarus wasn't a military threat to Ukraine in an interview in which the Belarusian dictator

11:07even apologized to Zelensky for comments that he'd made in the past. There's also the big deal to

11:13consider. Back in March, there was a sudden upswing in diplomatic relations between the US and Belarus.

11:19Lukashenko claimed that he'd received an invite to speak to US President Donald Trump to discuss a

11:25big deal amidst the US easing sanctions on Belarus. Fast forward to the end of May and there are rumblings

11:31that Lukashenko may put in an appearance during one of the meetings of the Board of Peace that

11:35Trump has created. This defrosting of the Belarus-US relationship shows us that Lukashenko is

11:41trying to build ties with the West, which is unforgivable as far as Putin is concerned.

11:46Lukashenko is supposed to be a lapdog, but all of these moves show Putin that the dictator who has

11:50called Russia's president his big brother is now looking to save his own skin rather than do what

11:56Russia tells him to do. Lukashenko is hedging because he knows that entering the war with Ukraine

12:00would be disastrous for him and his country. Lukashenko is right. Belarus wouldn't stand a

12:06chance. We told you earlier that Belarus is a military minnow. That's especially the case when

12:12comparing the nation to Ukraine. Belarusian forces have no real combat experience and Lukashenko will

12:17be throwing them to the wolves in Ukraine against troops that have been fighting since 2022. Lukashenko

12:23knows that better than anyone. In the same interview where he apologized to Zelensky for his past

12:28remarks, he admitted that Belarus is vulnerable. That's a two-toned confession. It's Lukashenko

12:33saying that he knows the Belarusian army can't stand up to Ukraine and that Russia can't protect

12:38his territory or his presidency if he gets involved in the war. On the military front, Belarus has no

12:44chance. Its active military of 63,000 and its 365,400 reserves are dwarfed by Ukraine's active

12:53military of 900,000 alone. And that's before we throw 4 million reserves into the mix.

12:58Belarus doesn't come out on top in any department, be it land, sea or air. And worst of all for

13:03Lukashenko, he knows that Ukraine's drones would do a real number on his country. He's seen Ukraine's

13:09drones strike all over Russia, turning the country's size into a major weakness in the process. Belarus is

13:15tiny in comparison to Russia, but that also makes it more compact. Every industrial center in Belarus would

13:21become a target for Ukraine's drones, and they would strike with impunity against a nation that

13:26has such a Russia-centric economy that it would collapse as its output declined and new sanctions

13:31came pouring in. Lukashenko doesn't want Ukraine's smoke, and he no longer believes that Russia can

13:36protect him. Russia is trying to convince Lukashenko that he should stick with Putin. On June 23rd,

13:43the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov declared that Russia would protect Belarus with a

13:47full range of measures if the time came. Just like it protected the leaders of Venezuela,

13:53Syria and Iran when they came under threat. Oh wait, those leaders are all gone.

13:58Lukashenko has seen just how well Russia protects its allies, and he knows that he'd suffer the same

14:03fate if he poked the Ukrainian bear by turning the relays back on and sending his military into the war.

14:09So we see the true root of all Lukashenko's erratic behavior over the last few months.

14:13Here we have a leader who has never been much of a diplomat, attempting to walk a tightrope between

14:18Russia and Ukraine, and he's not doing it very well. He'll blare about supporting Putin in one

14:23breath, then apologize to Zelensky in the next. He talks about how Belarus would be and deliver

14:27warnings to Ukraine not to drag his country into war, then he'll turn off signal relays when Zelensky

14:33demands it. And as all of this contradictory behavior points to a dictator in crisis, it all comes

14:37back to one simple fact that Lukashenko is simply trying to save his own skin. After all,

14:43he knows that entering Ukraine would be a catastrophe. Not just for his military,

14:47but for his entire future as Belarus' dictator. On June 26th, UA.News revealed that political

14:54analyst Igor Tyshevich has highlighted how practically nobody in Belarus wants anything to do with Putin's

15:00war, and they haven't since the start. Tyshevich claims that between 55 and 60 percent of

15:05Belarusians categorically oppose any sort of involvement of the Belarusian military in the

15:10Ukraine war. Only 5 to 7 percent actively support such a scenario, which tells us all we need to

15:16know about Lukashenko's actions. He's managed to maintain his grip on power by relying on Russia for

15:21so many years. As Russia weakens, Lukashenko has to start listening to people, and they are telling

15:26him that they will not accept the inevitable bloodshed that would stain their lives if Lukashenko does what

15:32Putin wants him to do. If Belarus goes to war, it seems very likely that Lukashenko would have an

15:38uprising on his hands. That's the real reason behind the Belarusian military buildup. It's all

15:42about keeping Lukashenko in power, as he desperately claws for a way out of the hole he dug for himself

15:48when he threw his support behind Russia in 2022. Ukraine has made Belarus fear Kyiv more than Moscow.

15:54That is Putin's nightmare scenario because it shows him that even the country that is most easily

15:59within reach of his sphere of influence is turning its back on Russia's demands. In an ideal world,

16:05this would be the wake-up call that Putin needs to realize that his Ukraine invasion is lost,

16:09but it won't be. As the ISW reports, high-ranking Kremlin officials are reiterating their unwillingness

16:14to negotiate with Ukraine due to some strange sort of confidence, faked or otherwise, in the ability

16:20of Russia's forces to achieve Putin's objectives in Ukraine. The Kremlin is living in la-la land if it

16:26thinks that Russia is winning in Ukraine. And even a dictator as crazy and Russia-dependent

16:30as Lukashenko can see it, Ukraine won't let its guard down. It'll continue to make sure how badly

16:36things will go for Lukashenko if he tries to go on the warpath. But Putin has to face up to

16:40the fact

16:41that relying on a dictator as paranoid about holding onto power as he is was never a smart move.

16:46And Putin has plenty of problems besides Lukashenko showing his fear of Ukraine. Russia itself is on the

16:52ropes and not just in Ukraine. Something devastating has broken inside the country and Russia may never

16:57be able to recover. Find out what by watching our video. And if you enjoyed this video, remember

17:02to hit subscribe so that you can see more analysis from The Military Show. And thank you for watching.

Category

Transcript

Comments

Recommended