00:00In its latest consultation report, the International Monetary Fund has projected real GDP growth for Trinidad and Tobago at a
00:09moderate 0.8% for 2025.
00:12It adds that similar levels are expected to hold into 2026.
00:17According to the IMF, economic activity is gradually recovering.
00:21However, it warns that persistent fiscal deficits continue to place pressure on public debt and has urged the government to
00:31strengthen fiscal buffers, including renewed contributions to the Heritage and Stabilization Fund, while positioning the economy to better manage volatile
00:40energy revenues.
00:42Speaking with the Morning Edition, economist Professor Roger Hosein weighed in on the statement.
00:47Which is low, but again, not surprising given that you have a 97% correlation between your level of natural
00:58gas production and your GDP growth.
01:00So if your natural gas production is low and falling, you expect by extension your GDP growth in a country
01:08that is so gas-based and gas-oriented for and energy-oriented for its functionality for it to be badly
01:17hit.
01:17He says the government has navigated the country's economic landscape positively so far, maintaining stability amid global and domestic challenges.
01:27He notes that the medium-term outlook remains broadly favorable, but stresses that future focus must shift toward expanding non
01:36-energy exports and unlocking the full potential gas fields as a key driver of growth.
01:41The next obstacle for the Charan Tobago government is to actually see two things.
01:48It takes us two dimensions.
01:50To actually see the Manatee gas and the Jagan gas come on stream.
01:56Right now it is expected gas to come on stream, not so much from Jagan, but more from Manatee, Manacaine,
02:03Coquina and those other producing fields.
02:07That's one. And we expect that to happen. Other things are constant.
02:11He also recommends prioritizing the export sector.
02:15With oil and gas mature, even if gas production increases in the next five years, on which I am paying
02:22only 5% attention,
02:24the rare long-term sustainable bailout factor for the Chilean and Tobago is that non-energy exports of goods and
02:33services.
02:34And can it be done? Of course. Look right around the Caribbean.
02:37Nicola M. Romany, TV6 News.
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